Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[Felya]

Can PA already be called? 37k ahead. Doesn't matter if Trump concedes or not.

Yes, Nate Silver said on CNN yesterday... it’s done... if you don’t want to wait to celebrate, go for it... you don’t need to wait for the news. At which point Chris Christy called him drunk...

Oh and Trump won’t concede...

Edit: Won’t not won...

[Toppy]

A reminder that what we're seeing from Trump supporters isn't stupidity.
It isnt ignorance.

It is years and years and years of indoctrination.

Watch any form of conservative media and you'll know what I mean. I've done so and its made me feel sorry for these people more than anything. This is a problem that may not be fixable since its stuff people were born into believing.

[Omians]

Yes, Nate Silver said on CNN yesterday... it’s done... if you don’t want to wait to celebrate, go for it... you don’t need to wait for the news. At which point Chris Christy called him drunk...

Oh and Trump won concede...

long as people keep making rumors and claims of voter fraud hes going to keep raising a fuss
you would think a president would have his own resources to dip into to double check all these.

then again i wouldnt put it past trump to take the word of some rando on twitter over his own staff

[szechuan]

Hillary was right.

[Daelak]

No they won't, not by a longshot:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iden-6247.html - National Polling. Shows Biden on average winning the popular vote by 7%. He won by over 2%. That is well outside the bounds of ANY MoE, and there's a lot of polls there showing Biden ahead by 10 points, that's just nonsense.

In 2016 the polls were indeed in the MoE and the average of polling was only off by 1% in terms how Hillary would win the popular vote.

As for state polls? They were wrong on average by 7 points in Ohio, 6 points in Wisconsin and Iowa, and in many other states and the picture would look worse if it weren't for pollsters like Trafalgar who were FAR closer ( though wrong in a number of states ) then say NY Times.

America should feel humiliated by this, very few countries have such bad polling and most of those are flawed third world countries!

You cannot make this statement until all the votes are counted in every state. There are counties in Texas that are still counting majority democrat mail-in/absentee ballots. Look at El Paso. Lets have this discussion in 3 weeks when all the votes are in, you will see how close it is.

[Thepersona]

Can PA already be called? 37k ahead. Doesn't matter if Trump concedes or not.

Wasnt 29k ahead amd no new updates or i missed something?

[arandomuser]

so are retail workers in big cities that voted overwhelmingly democratic not "working class" or does working class only constittute 45 year old steel mill workers in the midwest
look im glad joe biden won the midwest..but its clear you cant say the working class abandoned the democrats when our margins major urban cities grew tremendously, its clearly it has nothing to do with occupation and its just cultural values

[Shadowferal]

So...Trump is a LOSER
Biden can tell him he's fired...

Hmmm...have to wonder if any of those will give him a stroke.

[Felya]

Hillary was right.

He is now complaining about votes received on Election Day? What?

[Gelannerai]

A reminder that what we're seeing from Trump supporters isn't stupidity.
It isnt ignorance.

It is years and years and years of indoctrination.

Watch any form of conservative media and you'll know what I mean. I've done so and its made me feel sorry for these people more than anything. This is a problem that may not be fixable since its stuff people were born into believing.

The thing is, it can be all those things. Grown-ass adults should know better than to think that people like Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity and Tucker Carlson are anything more than shock-jocks. They aren’t any more intelligent or have any greater moral standing than mouthbreathing shitheels like Skip Bayless or Colin Cowherd. Anecdotal, but I know several people that grew up being inundated by Fox News and Limbaugh diarrhea that came to their senses once they used their heads and actually thought about things objectively. You’re right that it’s decades of indoctrination, but it’s absolutely stupidity and willful ignorance as well.

[Felya]

Wasnt 29k ahead amd no new updates or i missed something?

I think both PA and GA are going recount... the closest we get to a confirm, is NV and AZ.

[Mihalik]

Look, I don't want to be that person - and I do think that pollsters were lied to - but the source actually doesn't say that people lied, per se. The study, at least according to the article, instead suggests that those believing in QAnon theories may have chosen not to participate in said polls in the first place and that those who do not worry about Corona were less likely to be home to be reached by pollsters.
Mind you, there might be an implication that some such believers might have lied - since the results seem to be high QAnon activity~Trump overperforms - but that is not something explicitly stated by this research, at least according to the article.

I don't want to deride anything or the like, but we should always accurately present what we use as the basis for our arguments, especially when it is behind a paywall.

That being said, the hypothesis seems quite reasonable to me. Those who already distrust 'the media' and polls to begin with self-select out of the pool and are therefore underrepresented.

Which is why I said "early" and "speculative" that "might" confirm.

I should have changed confirm to suggest too.

Anyway. The polls were undeniably off in places like Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania. Well beyond what could simply be a "marginal error".

And those polling errors seem to strongly correlate with observed Qanon activity.

Of course correlation does not equal causation, but I believe that it is extremely important to pinpoint what caused polls to be so off, because polling data is crucial for gauging public opinion and sentiment for policy purposes.

It's important we don't dismiss this as "another fluke" and to actually come up with polling systems and methodologies that work again.

- - - Updated - - -

so are retail workers in big cities that voted overwhelmingly democratic not "working class" or does working class only constittute 45 year old steel mill workers in the midwest
look im glad joe biden won the midwest..but its clear you cant say the working class abandoned the democrats when our margins major urban cities grew tremendously, its clearly it has nothing to do with occupation and its just cultural values

Nobody who works in retail, entertainment, services, offices, education, healthcare, communications, transportation etc is working class. Neither are gays, trans folk, people of color, liberals, progressives, non Conservative Catholics.

Only Appalachian white coal miners, white factory workers and white farmers are working class.

Obviously. /s

[Bodakane]

The Republicans played themselves directly into our hands.....while they are all ranting and raving over the election....we've had all the time in the world to "gay the frogs" with our chemtrails without interference.

[Thepersona]

I think both PA and GA are going recount... the closest we get to a confirm, is NV and AZ.

I dont think PA will get recounts afaik. But i could be wrong. And yeah, GA will get one, its obvious.

[CastletonSnob]

Biden is up by almost 30k in PA, and 8k in GA.

It's pretty much over for Trump, isn't it?

[Felya]

Biden is up by almost 30k in PA, and 8k in GA.

It's pretty much over for Trump, isn't it?

The flying monkeys are out... until they return to the castle, we don’t really know...

[Thepersona]

Biden is up by almost 30k in PA, and 8k in GA.

It's pretty much over for Trump, isn't it?

Pretty much, yeah. But the networks are not calling it for a mix of reasons, including 2016 ptsd and milking the sweet add revenue

[Iphie]

Biden is up by almost 30k in PA, and 8k in GA.

It's pretty much over for Trump, isn't it?

Almost, but let's not jinx it.

[Flarelaine]

What about votes from dead people? Do they count?

There have been well-publicized incidents voters dying after voting early and their ballots being subsequently thrown out.

[Felya]

What about votes from dead people? Do they count?

Dead people can’t vote. There is verification involved. Sorry, every vote counts.

- - - Updated - - -

There have been well-publicized incidents voters dying after voting early and their ballots being subsequently thrown out.

Mine was rejected this election due to signature... I voted Biden... Wouldn’t they keep my vote? Why not return a vote of a dead person, but keep mine?

These theories are absurd... their only purpose should be to highlight the gullible, so we can sell them bridges. I mean...

Edit: Also, it was Trump who told his supporters to vote early and often... to vote by mail, then go and vote in person... Biden didn’t do this... What are the odds the recount will find irregularities, in Trump supporters doing what Trump told them and voting twice?

Edit 2: I will say the odds are tiny, because of the validation that happens during voting.