Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[fwc577]

Even 7 million falls short of what he should have gotten.

I would agree. I posted some estimates a real long time ago, either on Reddit or here (possibly both) and I was expecting a turnout at +10m but privately, I could've easily seen him pulling in +15m. My estimate was ~70m votes for Biden (privately I was thinking he could even get 75M) and he's currently sitting at 75.5m.

What I didn't factor into my calculations though was Trump getting SIGNIFICANTLY more support and I still don't understand why to the point where I wonder if something fishy IS going on. Now, I have no proof of this, I just know that when it comes to the GOP, they're accusing of fraud pretty hardcore and lately I've learned that when they accused someone of something, they're already doing it.

But anyway, back to the #s.

Every candidate in the last 30ish years, sees a 5% reduction during their second term election with two exceptions. Bush Sr. and Bush Jr. who had a -20% and +20% change in support. Sr. was because of third party and Jr was because of War on Terror.

What did Trump do to net himself 10 MILLION MORE votes than the previous election? This is what absolutely amazes me. His Presidency has been VERY decisive, he's alienated a shitload of Republicans to the point where many prominent Republicans, current office holders, were announcing decisions to vote against him. Biden got a shitload of endorsements that would normally either endorse Republicans or wouldn't offer endorsements at all.

It would seem that nobody wanted Trump, yet somehow, even with all the votes he supposedly should've lost, he GAINED 10m votes.

Would love for someone smarter than me to go out and take a look and see if there are anomalies with the vote totals where Trump won.

Also do think we need some form of post-mortem done by the government on this election to ensure that we don't have, like, hacked ballot machines switching votes from Biden to Trump. Because I could very much see some third-party, bad-faith, foreign actors somehow fucking with the vote thinking they did enough to get Trump win but Biden still outperformed their expectations resulting in a razor-thin Biden win.

[Kellhound]

How does that work with keeping your friends close, but your enemies closer? Isn’t that just confusing? You end up... lol... doing the can can dance?

Because it is an error to think your enemy's enemy is your friend, they are just a tool to be exploited.

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If they can, then people can burn down Trump property. So... he can go right ahead... make our day.

Both have the ability to, but only one has the legal right to.

[cubby]

I would agree. I posted some estimates a real long time ago, either on Reddit or here (possibly both) and I was expecting a turnout at +10m but privately, I could've easily seen him pulling in +15m.

What I didn't factor into my calculations though was Trump getting SIGNIFICANTLY more support and I still don't understand why to the point where I wonder if something fishy IS going on. Now, I have no proof of this, I just know that when it comes to the GOP, they're accusing of fraud pretty hardcore and lately I've learned that when they accused someone of something, they're already doing it.

But anyway, back to the #s.

Every candidate in the last 30ish years, sees a 5% reduction during their second term election with two exceptions. Bush Sr. and Bush Jr. who had a -20% and +20% change in support. Sr. was because of third party and Jr was because of War on Terror.

What did Trump do to net himself 10 MILLION MORE votes than the previous election? This is what absolutely amazes me. His Presidency has been VERY decisive, he's alienated a shitload of Republicans to the point where many prominent Republicans, current office holders, were announcing decisions to vote against him. Biden got a shitload of endorsements that would normally either endorse Republicans or wouldn't offer endorsements at all.

It would seem that nobody wanted Trump, yet somehow, even with all the votes he supposedly should've lost, he GAINED 10m votes.

Would love for someone smarter than me to go out and take a look and see if there are anomalies with the vote totals where Trump won.

Also do think we need some form of post-mortem done by the government on this election to ensure that we don't have, like, hacked ballot machines switching votes from Biden to Trump. Because I could very much see some third-party, bad-faith, foreign actors somehow fucking with the vote thinking they did enough to get Trump win but Biden still outperformed their expectations resulting in a razor-thin Biden win.

Now I'm curious about this, too.

[Felya]

The point is there is a difference between having the support of the majority of Americans and having the support of the majority of voters. I don't think either part would get a majority, just a plurality, if everyone had to vote.

There is... people who care about voting for America, vote in majority for democrats... the majority of Americans that participate in the American process, vote democrat. The policies Americans who care enough about policy to vote, are by majority democratic policy. It’s why the fear of 2A crowd... you know the majority of those who care, don’t care for it...

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Now I'm curious about this, too.

It’s fringing on conspiracy theory pretty hard... it’s simple... Trump raised the stakes beyond any previous president. God, America, children and all of Western civilization was argued as the stakes if Trump loses...

[Kellhound]

I would agree. I posted some estimates a real long time ago, either on Reddit or here (possibly both) and I was expecting a turnout at +10m but privately, I could've easily seen him pulling in +15m. My estimate was ~70m votes for Biden (privately I was thinking he could even get 75M) and he's currently sitting at 75.5m.

What I didn't factor into my calculations though was Trump getting SIGNIFICANTLY more support and I still don't understand why to the point where I wonder if something fishy IS going on. Now, I have no proof of this, I just know that when it comes to the GOP, they're accusing of fraud pretty hardcore and lately I've learned that when they accused someone of something, they're already doing it.

But anyway, back to the #s.

Every candidate in the last 30ish years, sees a 5% reduction during their second term election with two exceptions. Bush Sr. and Bush Jr. who had a -20% and +20% change in support. Sr. was because of third party and Jr was because of War on Terror.

What did Trump do to net himself 10 MILLION MORE votes than the previous election? This is what absolutely amazes me. His Presidency has been VERY decisive, he's alienated a shitload of Republicans to the point where many prominent Republicans, current office holders, were announcing decisions to vote against him. Biden got a shitload of endorsements that would normally either endorse Republicans or wouldn't offer endorsements at all.

It would seem that nobody wanted Trump, yet somehow, even with all the votes he supposedly should've lost, he GAINED 10m votes.

Would love for someone smarter than me to go out and take a look and see if there are anomalies with the vote totals where Trump won.

Also do think we need some form of post-mortem done by the government on this election to ensure that we don't have, like, hacked ballot machines switching votes from Biden to Trump. Because I could very much see some third-party, bad-faith, foreign actors somehow fucking with the vote thinking they did enough to get Trump win but Biden still outperformed their expectations resulting in a razor-thin Biden win.

If Trump was going to rig the election, he would have won by 20+ million, his ego would allow for nothing less. The DOD was actively trying to defend the vote in cyberspace, but that is not proof nothing happened. There is also the possibility that there were that number of people who feared a Dem controlled government at this point in time.

[Felya]

Because it is an error to think your enemy's enemy is your friend, they are just a tool to be exploited.

How do you know when you are the tool?

Edit: Have you donated to a billionaire before?

Both have the ability to, but only one has the legal right to.

They both have a legal right to, because it would be rising up against tyranny... they will be well organized militias. Which are legal... correct? That’s the intent of 2A? They will do it without guns...

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If Trump was going to rig the election, he would have won by 20+ million, his ego would allow for nothing less. The DOD was actively trying to defend the vote in cyberspace, but that is not proof nothing happened. There is also the possibility that there were that number of people who feared a Dem controlled government at this point in time.

No, all he needs is just one vote. You are saying he should, when the poster your responded to was saying can. Honest mistake... he can win with just one vote... it’s... the law...

[Kellhound]

There is... people who care about voting for America, vote in majority for democrats... the majority of Americans that participate in the American process, vote democrat. The policies Americans who care enough about policy to vote, are by majority democratic policy. It’s why the fear of 2A crowd... you know the majority of those who care, don’t care for it...

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It’s fringing on conspiracy theory pretty hard... it’s simple... Trump raised the stakes beyond any previous president. God, America, children and all of Western civilization was argued as the stakes if Trump loses...

The question is how many people don't vote, because they know it is just a waste of time. Where I live, there is little to no reason to vote for any statewide office if you don't support the majority party. If their is nothing on the ballot that you think is worth voting for, why bother?

[fwc577]

If Trump was going to rig the election, he would have won by 20+ million, his ego would allow for nothing less. The DOD was actively trying to defend the vote in cyberspace, but that is not proof nothing happened. There is also the possibility that there were that number of people who feared a Dem controlled government at this point in time.

Re read my post, I didn’t say I think Trump would’ve been the one doing the rigging.

I suspect foreign interference and I suspect at least one person in the campaign might possibly have second hand or direct knowledge.

[Breccia]

Normally I would say "what celebrities say about an election isn't that important in the grand scheme of things".

But considering Trump's previous job was "TV game show host" I'm oing to make a few exceptions.

Dan Rather:

Ok, 2020. That was something good.

Howard Stern:

I was expecting to see a landslide. I really was like, people just had it with all the incompetence in Washington, we need government right now and we need someone to run this whole deal.

It’s not the decisive thrashing I thought it was going to be.

SNL:

This cold open and this Weekend Update

Omarosa:

[Melania] is going to divorce Donald J. Trump faster than you can say, ‘Goodbye, honey

LeBron James:



Conan O'Brien:

So NOW Trump wants to quarantine in the White House.

Captain America:

Wow. Hey Republicans, are you listening to this come-to-life toilet spew complete lies about the integrity of our democratic process?

Miley Cyrus:

NOW it’s a PARTY IN THE USA!

Chance the Rapper:

[qutoe]AYYYYYYYYYYY[/quote]

John Mulaney:

...And stay out!

Seth Rogen:

They did this shit on Saturday so we could get fuuuuuuuuuucked up.

Patton Oswald:



"The fuck is that?"

The survivor of the Texas Chainsaw Massacre

Sarah Michelle Gellar:

“Its easier to be a parent this morning” And as the mother of a daughter, I will never forget the moment that we watched together, as the first woman was called as Vice President elect. And, as the mother of a son, to show him that Men and Women are partners and can accomplish anything when paired with respect. Thank you to staceyabrams and ruthbaderginsburg and everyone that came before for making this moment possible. “I am woman hear me roar”

Jordan Peele:

You’re fired.

Arianna Huffington:

Good things comes to those who wait. A new and better chapter...

and, of course, Chrissy Teigen:

My god it feels like I just took off a weighted blanket, unhooked my bra and taken out my extensions all at once

"You forgot Cohen and the Mooch".

They're lawyers, not celebrities.

"They're celebrities now, aren't they? Plus I looked over your shoulder, you searched for Conway and found nothing."

Touche. The Mooch:

I think I am in the contrarian camp. Everyone says he isn’t going to go quietly and that there is going to be a shootout over this, and stuff like that - but that isn’t Trump’s personality.

His personality is bluster and saying things, but he really isn’t a doer that way. I think he will blow out.

Cohen:

strongly implies voting for Biden by posting himself with "I Voted" sticker and #Disloyal

[Mormolyce]

Lets say you have a state that has 40% of the population that would vote for the "D" no matter what, 30% that would vote for the "R" no matter what, and 30% in the middle. If the "R" candidates are already winning, how would the "D" going further left help them gain more of the middle 30%? Politics is not a battle at the extremes, but on in the middle.

And yet the Republicans went all in on the far right in the last two elections, their candidate spent his entire Presidency shitting on anyone who wasn't a right wing extremist (not to mention having one of the most incompetent scandal-ridden Presidencies in US history) while the Democrats tried your strategy - and they lost the first time and barely eked out a win in the second. By the conventional "appeal to the middle" logic, they both should've been an easy home run.

The policies of the left are popular, but the "left wing" party is not. There's a simple reason for that.

[PACOX]

explain how dems played a big part in trump's cult instantly believing and acting on anything dear leader says?

I'm talking about Biden's win...

[Kellhound]

How do you know when you are the tool?

Edit: Have you donated to a billionaire before?



They both have a legal right to, because it would be rising up against tyranny... they will be well organized militias. Which are legal... correct? That’s the intent of 2A? They will do it without guns...

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No, all he needs is just one vote. You are saying he should, when the poster your responded to was saying can. Honest mistake... he can win with just one vote... it’s... the law...

Most people are a tool, only a very small few actually have power.

Arson isn't fighting tyranny, its just being petty because you are mad. Mobs are not well organized. The 2nd has been ruled to mean the people have a right to bare arms, not just as part of a militia.

Opinion on how he would cheat, not ruling on if he did. Nothing I said was in anyway saying he should have cheated. You seem to be rather upset that I was correct that many electors can change their vote.

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Re read my post, I didn’t say I think Trump would’ve been the one doing the rigging.

I suspect foreign interference and I suspect at least one person in the campaign might possibly have second hand or direct knowledge.

I covered your foreign concern, as well as making a statement concerning Trump cheating.

[PACOX]

I would agree. I posted some estimates a real long time ago, either on Reddit or here (possibly both) and I was expecting a turnout at +10m but privately, I could've easily seen him pulling in +15m. My estimate was ~70m votes for Biden (privately I was thinking he could even get 75M) and he's currently sitting at 75.5m.

What I didn't factor into my calculations though was Trump getting SIGNIFICANTLY more support and I still don't understand why to the point where I wonder if something fishy IS going on. Now, I have no proof of this, I just know that when it comes to the GOP, they're accusing of fraud pretty hardcore and lately I've learned that when they accused someone of something, they're already doing it.

But anyway, back to the #s.

Every candidate in the last 30ish years, sees a 5% reduction during their second term election with two exceptions. Bush Sr. and Bush Jr. who had a -20% and +20% change in support. Sr. was because of third party and Jr was because of War on Terror.

What did Trump do to net himself 10 MILLION MORE votes than the previous election? This is what absolutely amazes me. His Presidency has been VERY decisive, he's alienated a shitload of Republicans to the point where many prominent Republicans, current office holders, were announcing decisions to vote against him. Biden got a shitload of endorsements that would normally either endorse Republicans or wouldn't offer endorsements at all.

It would seem that nobody wanted Trump, yet somehow, even with all the votes he supposedly should've lost, he GAINED 10m votes.

Would love for someone smarter than me to go out and take a look and see if there are anomalies with the vote totals where Trump won.

Also do think we need some form of post-mortem done by the government on this election to ensure that we don't have, like, hacked ballot machines switching votes from Biden to Trump. Because I could very much see some third-party, bad-faith, foreign actors somehow fucking with the vote thinking they did enough to get Trump win but Biden still outperformed their expectations resulting in a razor-thin Biden win.

It is insane that he gained votes but it's insane that he got one term. I know if I was Republican I would have been on board with the idea of him getting more SCOTUS seats. So maybe that's where the votes came from?

I don't think you can just call foul because the GOP lost the House but they also didn't lose too much (didn't they gain seats?). You can infer Republicans came out in large numbers too...which is kind of concerning if Republicans still have a decent amount of people who done vote all the time as well...Ws sort of assumed the GOP shows most of its hand every election.

[Kellhound]

And yet the Republicans went all in on the far right in the last two elections, their candidate spent his entire Presidency shitting on anyone who wasn't a right wing extremist (not to mention having one of the most incompetent scandal-ridden Presidencies in US history) while the Democrats tried your strategy - and they lost the first time and barely eked out a win in the second. By the conventional "appeal to the middle" logic, they both should've been an easy home run.

The policies of the left are popular, but the "left wing" party is not. There's a simple reason for that.

Perhaps the middle isnt as far left as you hope.

[starlord]

It is insane that he gained votes but it's insane that he got one term. I know if I was Republican I would have been on board with the idea of him getting more SCOTUS seats. So maybe that's where the votes came from?

I don't think you can just call foul because the GOP lost the House but they also didn't lose too much (didn't they gain seats?). You can infer Republicans came out in large numbers too...which is kind of concerning if Republicans still have a decent amount of people who done vote all the time as well...Ws sort of assumed the GOP shows most of its hand every election.

anecdotal but i have family members (plural) who don't vote who decided to vote for the first time this year for trump.
so, i suspect thats a thing.

[PACOX]

Ah man I keep forgetting. Shout out to Stacy Abrams and I am glad she is getting some MSM attention. That woman has done a lot for vote equity since she lost and inspired a lot of people who had lost faith in the system I don't agree with a lot her political ways but her voter advocacy is top notch. The DNC/Biden/someone needs to sign her. She is a lady who believes in better government even if she doesn't hold an elected office.

[Mormolyce]

How are people still posting stuff that has been debunked multiple times. Supreme Court ruled against unfaithful electors.

Well Kellhound is correct, while some states have laws prohibiting faithless electors (which is rather ridiculous as it makes the whole thing redundant - but what do you expect since the Electoral College is a flaming pile of garbage) many don't, and indeed 2016 had an unusually large number of faithless electors. In fact I think if you ignore elections where the candidate died before the election or some other unusual shenanigans, 2016 was the highest.

But of course it's pretty unlikely. Also several states have signed up to the NPVIC which would automatically award all those states' EC votes to the winner of the national popular vote, in those cases I guess faithless electors would be impossible or irrelevant? But of course those are mostly blue states anyway. What's interesting is that PA and OH had such legislation in pending - if they had passed before the election then this would've been the first election to put it to the test. Biden would've likely won on election night or the night following if it had worked and not been challenged.

That's an aside though - while it's possible faithless electors could come into play I don't think it's very probable. I don't think faithless electors have ever swayed an election when the candidate they were faithless to was still alive?

[fwc577]

anecdotal but i have family members (plural) who don't vote who decided to vote for the first time this year for trump.
so, i suspect thats a thing.

He nearly saw +12% turnout which is INSANE. This is despite the fact there were a lot of people who voted for him in 2016 but wouldn’t in 2020.

I’m willing to bet that, new Trump voters, assuming it’s all legit, equal nearly 20% of his total support in order for him to have hit that 70m mark.

[UndedoKoleda]

I'm not going (obviously) to read the entire thread, so could anyone write a short summary about why the russians didn't try to "intervene" in these elections? I remember that being a huge(and I mean HUGE) deal the last time around, but can't remember seeing anyone even mentioning the matter now. What made them back-off and let Trump lose?

[PACOX]

He nearly saw +12% turnout which is INSANE. This is despite the fact there were a lot of people who voted for him in 2016 but wouldn’t in 2020.

I’m willing to bet that, new Trump voters, assuming it’s all legit, equal nearly 20% of his total support in order for him to have hit that 70m mark.

Exit polls are exit polls but they did show an uptick for him in every demographic but white men. Americans are crazy or really loathe the DNC. Also he Was 93% of Republicans vs 90%. Not a massive gain. It's just crazy how many people still supported him - how many people think they are millionaires who are just down on their luck.

I haven't seen his NPA numbers, which would probably explain his lost more than how the two parties voted.