Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[Corvus]

It is also a matter of knowing what kind of votes are left and where they are from. All that is left in AZ are from places known to heavily favour the democrats.

[jonnysensible]

siri what is concern trolling

[Zaydin]

So what we're saying is this is a press called win. And realistically while it's likely not wrong. 2 things bother me here: 1) press projections - we all know at this point how wrong their projections have been lately, thus this doesn't inspire confidence in me and 2) I'm kinda weirded out that the press has this much power and that basically essentially what they're saying is what we say is true, end of story - and that bothers me greatly.

And while true, in terms of projections after the fact, rarely wrong, again, this is still 2020.

The whole reason why the press held off so long on projecting the winner in Pennsylvania is because even though Biden was making up ground, they wanted to be sure in their call before they made it precisely because of Trump and his cult screeching "FRAUD!" and running around like their hair was on fire.

Hell, most of them still haven't called Arizona (Save for Fox and the AP, IIRC) even though Biden is in the lead because they want to be sure that, again, they are confident in projecting the winner.

This is how the press has handled elections for decades now. There is nothing new about the process. The only thing new is having Trump standing on the sidelines screaming "FRAUD!" at the top of his lungs every time he loses something. I'm not kidding, either; when he lost the Iowa caucuses in 2016 to Ted Cruz, Trump declared he lost due to fraud and either needed to be declared the winner or have a new caucus held.

The press calls ultimately don't actually mean anything. But they are rarely wrong and their projections almost always end up being correct as to who the winner of a state is.

Knock it off with the concern trolling.

[Zantos]

I'm not buying this explanation. At this point with 2% left to count in Arizona, for example, and 3.2 million ballots counted, there's less than a 15k lead. 2% of 3.2 mil is like 60,000. Further, as another post said, California is pretty much called instantaneously because they are always Dem.

Buy it or not, its as simple as that. Of course, they also take into account what votes are left and how they have been leaning. IE, mail in ballots being all thats left and those heavily leaning towards biden.

So what we're saying is this is a press called win. And realistically while it's likely not wrong. 2 things bother me here: 1) press projections - we all know at this point how wrong their projections have been lately, thus this doesn't inspire confidence in me and 2) I'm kinda weirded out that the press has this much power and that basically essentially what they're saying is what we say is true, end of story - and that bothers me greatly.

And while true, in terms of projections after the fact, rarely wrong, again, this is still 2020.

Few things in this as well. Your first point is a false equivalent. The prior projections were based on an guess based upon what random people were telling them. Those people could have lied or changed their minds, throwing off those projections.

For the second point, the thing isn't about them having power as much as experts who are watching the entire thing unfold and calling it when it gets to the point that its certain. Like in Georgia for example. Are there enough votes left to possibly let Trump win? Sure, maybe. Is it going to happen? Not a chance. Literally zero. Why? They followed the election like us. We watched as Biden kept taking 60% or more of the mail in ballots, which is all they have to count, each time they did a numbers dump. We watched him quickly overcome a Huge lead Trump had. They looked at the counties left to count and what those predominately are in terms on political leaning. They put all of this information together and then make a call when its close enough to do so.

Finally, we don't know how many are left exactly. The percentages are guesses at best. Some states haven't updated in days because theres nothing left to update. Others are at 98% when the last 2% are nothing but problem child ballots. Ballots that need extra attention because something was wrong with them. Those issues could be someone filled in the information wrong, its illegible, or ballots that someone didn't think would make it on time so they went and voted in person too. Their the ones that need sorting through. That is why they get stuck on 98% or 99%. The last bit isn't new ballots, just ballots that had a problem.

[josykay]

First press has no power. The 2000 election was decided in the courts and the court decision was limited to the recount that was happening in Florida.

What the Press does in this case is what the campaign does as well. Both look at the current numbers that are being reported, look at what's left and look at who will get the remaining votes based on various factors.


You are talking about "the press" as if it's a single entity btw, it's weird. What power do you think that they have? No election is decided by what the press "calls".

Also 2000 had as far as I know, two states, including florida, which had around a 600 vote lead margin between Bush and Gore. Not the thousands of Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia,or tens of thousands in Pennsylvania, and was literally hinging at Florida, with the less than 600 vote margin, who would win. Bush got, overall 271!!!! votes in the electoral college, barely the minimum to win, when including Florida.

[Draco-Onis]

I swear that Trump supporters are in deeper shock/denial than the left was four years ago. They keep insisting that Trump will win and that the rampant fraud will be exposed any day now.

They never respond when you poke holes in their bullshit about how the election was rigged.

[thilicen]

Hahahaha jesus fucking christ.

[TEHPALLYTANK]

So what we're saying is this is a press called win. And realistically while it's likely not wrong. 2 things bother me here: 1) press projections - we all know at this point how wrong their projections have been lately, thus this doesn't inspire confidence in me and 2) I'm kinda weirded out that the press has this much power and that basically essentially what they're saying is what we say is true, end of story - and that bothers me greatly.

And while true, in terms of projections after the fact, rarely wrong, again, this is still 2020.

The press doesn't have power here, reality and facts do. The facts are pretty simple, Biden leads in PA by 45k votes and the estimated number of votes left to count in PA might total up to 10k. Even if those remaining votes were 100% for Trump, Biden still wins PA. Biden winning PA means he wins the EC, regardless of what the results are for NV, AZ, and GA.

It isn't a conspiracy theory, it is math. Trump has absolutely no way to win the EC without PA, and there aren't enough votes left for Trump to even have a chance at getting PA. Biden has clearly won the popular vote, and thus has won the EC thanks to PA. The only things left that are actually uncertain are a couple of house seats, the senate seats in GA that are going into runoffs in January, and how large of an EC victory Biden will have. The media isn't making any of this shit up, they're reporting the numbers provided by the election officials. That you don't like that the media is reporting those numbers is completely irrelevant.

[zorkuus]

Hahahaha jesus fucking christ.

It's scary to think how stupid some people can be. And they can vote, they should feel lucky.

[AeneasBK]

"My friend Steve Bannon says..."

Ooof

[Lanrefni]

It's scary to think how stupid some people can be. And they can vote, they should feel lucky.

Think about how stupid the average person is,now realize half of them are stupider than that. - George Carlin

[zorkuus]

"My friend Steve Bannon says..."

Ooof

Isn't that the guy who got caught stealing money from tRump supporters? Why is he still walking free btw?

[postman1782]

Isn't that the guy who got caught stealing money from tRump supporters? Why is he still walking free btw?

Yes, he is out on bail, he also threatened to put Fauci and Wray's head on a pike a couple days ago. He fucking threatened the head of the FBI, by putting his head on a pike, and he still isn't back in jail. But the video he posted was removed from Youtube.

[zorkuus]

Yes, he is out on bail, he also threatened to put Fauci and Wray's head on a pike a couple days ago. He fucking threatened the head of the FBI, by putting his head on a pike, and he still isn't back in jail. But the video he posted was removed from Youtube.

Must be that sweet rich white guy privilege. Roger Stone threatened the judge in his own case, and nothing happened to him. America still has a long way to go after the orange one is gone.

[Adhominem]

Genuine question to those who saw the video on twitter of someone saying f*ck Trump as he proceeds to burn Trump ballots.

1. What was your first response/thought
2. Did you consider looking up the name of the uploader
3. Did it change your view on (your own) opinions and (confirmation) bias?
[Infraction]

[Dhrizzle]

I know people who are convinced there is going to be a swath of recounts that are going to change everything... but as far as I am aware the only states doing recounts will be WI and GA and no other states meet the criteria for it, or am I mistaken?

That's awesome, it means we get to watch Trump lose twice.

[postman1782]

Genuine question to those who saw the video on twitter of someone saying f*ck Trump as he proceeds to burn Trump ballots.

1. What was your first response/thought
2. Did you consider looking up the name of the uploader
3. Did it change your view on (your own) opinions and (confirmation) bias?

What did I think of it? It is a bullshit stunt. And thanks to the people from the election commission of that state it was in, we now know it was. There was no barcode on the ballots, they were printed off.

Are you just posting this bullshit to post a conspiracy theory?

[zorkuus]

Genuine question to those who saw the video on twitter of someone saying f*ck Trump as he proceeds to burn Trump ballots.

1. What was your first response/thought
2. Did you consider looking up the name of the uploader
3. Did it change your view on (your own) opinions and (confirmation) bias?

Genuine question... whose burner account is this?

[Adhominem]

Genuine question... whose burner account is this?

You're quite paranoid. I'm neither left or right so I burned all the bridges.

[Machismo]

Genuine question... whose burner account is this?

It's just some random European jumping in to stir the pot.

Notice the decimal separator.

The system works quite well, it just takes time. And contrary to popular belief, mail-in ballots are quite safe from fraud: Just 0,0004% (in the last 20 years).