Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[Rasulis]

Stop here.
Please insert a serious talk about the massive Gerrymandering that occured in 2010. Also the gutting of the Voter Rights Act in 2013.
It's not helpful to gloss over this highly important shit that occured between 2008 and 2016.
It's like a civil engineer overlooking a massive sinkhole.

Also, these structural problems persist in the year 2020. So "winning back those counties", will always be difficult until gerrymandering and the VRA are fixed.

Without at least winning those counties back first, Democrats have no chance of reversing gerrymandering and restoring VRA. So it is a moot point. Democrats have to win with the hand that they have now to make any significant changes.

[PresidentGreymane]

Without at least winning those counties back first, Democrats have no chance of reversing gerrymandering and restoring VRA. So it is a moot point. Democrats have to win with the hand that they have now to make any significant changes.

Omitting the structural advantages from the discourse doesn't help though.

If anything, highlighting the problems of voter suppression seems to have energized a lot of voter. In Georgia for example. Winning those two senate will allow for the restoration of the VRA.
Winning those two senate seats also means that the 50 Democratic senators will represent about 40 million more people than the 50 GOP senators.

I just dont see the point of talking about the electorate in terms of counties.

[wunksta]

On the other hand, in the long run, Republicans are in a tough spot also. Biden’s 477 counties represent 71% of US GDP (up from 64% US GDP of Clinton counties) and growing job market. Out of 100 US counties with the largest economy, only 5 voted GOP. A record low. The population in Biden’s counties is growing while Trump’s counties is on the decline. The industries supported by the GOP are on major decline worsened by the pandemic. Job market and economy in the rural counties have never been worse. You can’t keep winning votes on empty promises and grievances. At some point, you actually have to produce results.

This is what many others have been saying for a long time. The Republicans are becoming marginalized and relying on gerrymandering as well as blocking voters is the only way they can stay relevant.

I think the big question is can Democrats keep the momentum and have a similar turnout in 2022.

[arandomuser]

the election is rigged
if you are a trump supporter in georgia, please do not vote january 5th, it is rigged and the deep state will win anyways, show your dissaproval by staying home!

- - - Updated - - -

This is what many others have been saying for a long time. The Republicans are becoming marginalized and relying on gerrymandering as well as blocking voters is the only way they can stay relevant.

I think the big question is can Democrats keep the momentum and have a similar turnout in 2022.

it just sucks because dems are the only party in between fascism
and you have people like in south texas and florida who wont vote for dem because they say "latinx" or are pro trans rights, so it seems like in the struggle between woke or fascism the population will just choose fascism, which to me is ultimately worst, but given thats what we learned from this election i have no hope of democracy surviving 2024 don jr or tucker carlsons presidency

[ati87]

I also think it's a bad argument to say he was a bad choice when he won even though the GOP ALSO had a record turnout. So not only did Biden have to do better than Clinton, he also had to do better than Obama. If the GOP votes were the same level as they were in previous elections it would have been more of a blowout. The Democrats did a great job at getting people to come out to vote--but Trump also whipped his base up into a frenzy while the GOP's honed disinformation campaign chugged at full speed.

I personally suspect that a major reason for the Republican turnout and why the polls where so off was in response to Democratic early turnout. Even pure red states had a higher turnout in 2020 than in 2016 from both parties.

Look at Texas for example, when the news started reporting that 2020 early turnout was more than 2016 that news probably spooked the Trump campaign and it's voters.

What we have seen is probably the absolute highest turnout possible for maybe both sides. Frankly I believe that Democrats can still win over Republican voters (the 1 or 2% non crazies) then Republicans trying to win over Democratic voters.

[Zan15]

SNIP

On the other hand, rural areas and places with high concentrations of white voters without college degrees went even more for Trump than they had in 2016. Also quite an achievement considering he won this core group by a record margin in 2016. Biden’s gain in Texas biggest counties were offset by Trump’s gain in South Texas counties and the increased turnout in more rural areas.

There are exceptions to the urban/rural divide. Rural counties whose economy relies on tourism and tech (mainly in CA and CO) voted overwhelmingly for Biden.

Trump won 2,497 counties and President-elect Joe Biden won only 477 counties. Since the electoral college system is heavily weighted toward the low population states, I think it will be harder for Democrats to win the presidency. The same with congressional seats. Looking at the map of voters’ margin shift, I am surprised that Democrats somehow still manage to maintain majority in the House. With the exception of the west and northeastern coastal states, the rest of the country looks like red tomato soup with sprinkling of blueberries. Unless Biden can make inroad into the rural areas with his policies in the next two years, realistically, 2022 and 2024 elections will be tough for Democrats.

On the other hand, in the long run, Republicans are in a tough spot also. Biden’s 477 counties represent 71% of US GDP (up from 64% US GDP of Clinton counties) and growing job market. Out of 100 US counties with the largest economy, only 5 voted GOP. A record low. The population in Biden’s counties is growing while Trump’s counties is on the decline. The industries supported by the GOP are on major decline worsened by the pandemic. Job market and economy in the rural counties have never been worse. You can’t keep winning votes on empty promises and grievances. At some point, you actually have to produce results.

The saddest part of this, those uneducated folk in the half empty 2497 counties will continue to ask why those "liberal elites" should run the country and get their fair share of voting power.

Imagine if those 2497 counties had even half the growth and production of the 477 how much more MAGA this country would be.

They are just going to have to continue to throw trillions at this uneducated population to keep them happy even though the return on the investment is poor.
I gander to bet that the tax tables will show the same level of taxes paid by those in the 477 counties

Those 2497 counties will continue to get their 60-65-75% Medicaid funding while the 477 get 50%
They will get their 101 billion in farm socialist payments on top of the 400 billion dollar farm subsidies each year.
They will continue to get their 2-3 dollars of federal payments/investments to every dollar paid in taxes while those 477 don't even get a full dollar back.
etc, etc, etc


and even after all this happens and more in the next 4 years, they will still vote republican....and fear socialism..

[PhaelixWW]

I know it is fun to make jokes about Trump and to an extent his supporters. I do it all the time. However, the results of this election was actually rather disturbing.

In 2016, 237 counties which voted for Obama ended up voting for Trump. In 2020, 77 counties flipped, and Biden won 59 of them. Democrats only regained a small fraction of the counties that they lost in 2016 election.

Stop here.
Please insert a serious talk about the massive Gerrymandering that occured in 2010. Also the gutting of the Voter Rights Act in 2013.
It's not helpful to gloss over this highly important shit that occured between 2008 and 2016.
It's like a civil engineer overlooking a massive sinkhole.

Also, these structural problems persist in the year 2020. So "winning back those counties", will always be difficult until gerrymandering and the VRA are fixed.

A few points:

1. In 2016, there were 237 total flips, of which Trump won 216 and Hillary won 21, which means that Trump's net was only +195.

2. Gerrymandering has to do with Congressional districts, not county lines, so that has nothing to do with county flipping.

[Edge-]

https://lawandcrime.com/2020-electio...esident-trump/

And Trump supporters are sending violent threats to the AZ SoS and her family.

VerY FInE PeopLe

[Lynarii]

So, when the actual trial starts, he'll claim there is evidence, and...try to hide behind the fact that he chose not to introduce any?

Yeah, I fail to see how this is a winning strategy.

I mean, the actual trial would be a shitshow either way.

What the Republican claim is is that the Democratic counties took steps to improve the mail-in vote process (Specifically, if you sent in a vote where you made a silly error like printing your address in the wrong location, they'd send you back a notice saying that they couldn't accept the ballot and you'd have to fix the problems and try again) while the Republican counties refused to make similar improvements. Because Democrat-led counties improved their systems and the Repubicans didn't, it was unfair to Republican voters, therefore the Democratic counties should have their votes thrown out.

The judge was openly confused as to why he was suing the counties that did improve their systems, rather than the ones that refused to.

[PhaelixWW]

The judge was openly confused as to why he was suing the counties that did improve their systems, rather than the ones that refused to.

"Because it's not faaaaaaaaaair to those poor Trump voters in other counties!

Honestly, Boockvar's lawyers said it best:

Election practices need not cater to the lowest common denominator, and Plaintiffs’ arguments would improperly penalize those counties that are enfranchising voters by helping them avoid ballot disqualification.

The judge definitely seemed to agree:

How does making it easier for some people to vote burden the plaintiffs' right to vote?

[Rasulis]

I personally suspect that a major reason for the Republican turnout and why the polls where so off was in response to Democratic early turnout. Even pure red states had a higher turnout in 2020 than in 2016 from both parties.

Look at Texas for example, when the news started reporting that 2020 early turnout was more than 2016 that news probably spooked the Trump campaign and it's voters.

What we have seen is probably the absolute highest turnout possible for maybe both sides. Frankly I believe that Democrats can still win over Republican voters (the 1 or 2% non crazies) then Republicans trying to win over Democratic voters.

Texas border counties voted for Trump mainly due to economic reasons. Overall they were not happy with Trump's border policy. However, there aren't too many ways to make a good living there other than working for border law enforcement (ICE, CBP, Border Patrol) or oil & gas. Democrats are perceived to be hostile to both.

[Slirith]

https://lawandcrime.com/2020-electio...esident-trump/

And Trump supporters are sending violent threats to the AZ SoS and her family.

VerY FInE PeopLe

Hopefully they are tracked down and put into prison. Same goes for all others who do this shit. Idiot Trumphadis

[Kallisto]

Texas border counties voted for Trump mainly due to economic reasons. Overall they were not happy with Trump's border policy. However, there aren't too many ways to make a good living there other than working for border law enforcement (ICE, CBP, Border Patrol) or oil & gas. Democrats are perceived to be hostile to both.

If democrats are hostile to these groups especially oil and gas then the latter half of the 21st century is going to be hell on earth for them when reality makes them realise oil and gas and other pollutants get phased right out.

[JohnBrown1917]

If democrats are hostile to these groups especially oil and gas then the latter half of the 21st century is going to be hell on earth for them when reality makes them realise oil and gas and other pollutants get phased right out.

Putting in policies that makes sure they wont have to worry about a loss of income would really help then.

[Kaleredar]

Putting in policies that makes sure they wont have to worry about a loss of income would really help then.

Unfortunately most of these people would rather have a candidate tell them they're going to save their inevitably dying, outdated industry rather than be told that they need to retrain (even if the candidate promises to fund their retraining) for an actually competitive job, and view any such social safety nets as being pinko communism that the "moochers" are going to leech off of to steal their money.

In essence: You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink.

[JohnBrown1917]

Unfortunately most of these people would rather have a candidate tell them they're going to save their inevitably dying, outdated industry rather than be told that they need to retrain (even if the candidate promises to fund their retraining) for an actually competitive job, and view any such social safety nets as being pinko communism that the "moochers" are going to leech off of to steal their money.

In essence: You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink.

Im not talking about retraining, im talking about making sure they are taking care off. This goes for everybody. Right-wing policies that claim to be about 'retraining or whatever aint gonna solve shit without very strong social safety nets.

[Kaleredar]

Im not talking about retraining, im talking about making sure they are taking care off. This goes for everybody. Right-wing policies that claim to be about 'retraining or whatever aint gonna solve shit without very strong social safety nets.

Retraining is the only plausible way for them to be gainfully employed afterwards. As for the safety nets... you can tell these likely low-education voters that you want to give them all the aid in the world. And they'll call that... just like I said... communism/socialism/liberal welfare queens coming to steal your money.

I think you misunderstand how geared some of these people are to vote against their best interests if it's not immediately related to short-term monetary income.
And it's the same with social safety programs.

You say "pay more in taxes so that you and others can be compensated if you fall on hard times," and they hear "pay more in taxes..." and lose interest.

[Fugus]

You say "pay more in taxes so that you and others can be compensated if you fall on hard times," and they hear "pay more in taxes..." and lose interest.

Yep, discussed this with a few friends of mine, even pointed out how they would pay less than they are now overall, but they basically said they would rather pay more when they need it because otherwise "Some moocher" would use it and jack up the prices or something to that effect.

[Resurgo]

...
I think you misunderstand how geared some of these people are to vote against their best interests if it's not immediately related to short-term monetary income...

Not sure about you but from my observations, that’s exactly how the vast majority seem to be.

Take that $1200 stimulus we got in May.
I took that as an extra cushion ‘just in case’ because I had no idea if things would get worse, I could make a mortgage payment, buy food, etc.
Around here, pretty much every big screen TV sold out. Shelves in electronics were bare

[beanman12345]

Yep, discussed this with a few friends of mine, even pointed out how they would pay less than they are now overall, but they basically said they would rather pay more when they need it because otherwise "Some moocher" would use it and jack up the prices or something to that effect.

It doesnt even have to be their taxes in many cases. Raising tax's on just people who make 500k+ a year makes their butt clench.