1. #4281
    Quote Originally Posted by DocSavageFan View Post
    RCP has Biden up over Trump by 5.6 points. Looks like this one is in the pocket!
    Trump and the Republicans are favorites to win the election.

    Current polls have very little bearing on the eventual outcome of the election because the public tends to treat polls as a mini-referendum on recent events. They also tend to have intrinsic sampling biases no one can really predict.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by infinitemeridian View Post
    Anybody who claims to have a reading on this election is a hack. Are we forgetting 2016 happened?
    I do have a reading on this election and I am not a hack. I have called most elections in the US and around the world correctly since 2000 (which lost by a few hundred votes), including Trump's victory.

    I'd say Trump has a roughly 60% chance. The problem is that everyone who is conscious knows that Trump is an asshole, but Biden has been treated with kid gloves by the media and his opponents. The Republicans will do a proper smear campaign on Biden and leading up to the election that will be all any one will talk about. Corporate democrats are oblivious to this because they keep pointing out, correctly, that Trump is just as guilty of the same crimes as Biden-but they completely miss the point that everyone knows that already.

    Additionally Trump has not alienated enough of the working-class voters that supported him in 2016. The theory is that when Trump didn't improve their lives the white working class would turn on him. That's not happening to the degree it needs to. In truth you don't need to offer the white working class much at all beyond vague racism unless you can demonstrate to them very specifically how their lives will improve.

    Additionally the Democrats have a major problem in that they believe their own bullshit (see this page). They will not adjust their strategy and are actively hostile to any one with intelligence who breaks this down for them (as many have tried). The Republicans do have some smart (perhaps "cunning" would be a better word) advisors who can react flexibly to events, even if the official leadership is sub-literate.
    Last edited by Starlump; 2020-05-21 at 09:48 AM.

  2. #4282
    Banned JohnBrown1917's Avatar
    10+ Year Old Account
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Обединени социалистически щати на Америка
    Posts
    28,394
    Quote Originally Posted by Rochana View Post
    The chilling reality is that this matters almost nothing.

    There used to be dictators that ordered their entire army to cut off the hands of their wives. Orders were still obediently followed.

    The willingness of the average human being to 'follow the rules / the law' makes them frighteningly docile.

    US Liberals love idolizing soldiers too much to even consider that, they don't see the US as an imperial war-addicted state.
    - - - Updated - - -


    [IMG]https://i.gyazo.com/9b46a4663ab466d2e1f647b545b0a4ec.png[IMG]

    For fuck's sake...
    Its clearly very anti-semetic to support Palestine against Isreali genocide.
    Just goes to show the horrible US foreign policy wont change under Biden.


    He is truly scum.

  3. #4283
    Quote Originally Posted by Starlump View Post
    I'd say Trump has a roughly 60% chance. The problem is that everyone who is conscious knows that Trump is an asshole, but Biden has been treated with kid gloves by the media and his opponents. The Republicans will do a proper smear campaign on Biden and leading up to the election that will be all any one will talk about. Corporate democrats are oblivious to this because they keep pointing out, correctly, that Trump is just as guilty of the same crimes as Biden-but they completely miss the point that everyone knows that already.

    Additionally Trump has not alienated enough of the working-class voters that supported him in 2016. The theory is that when Trump didn't improve their lives the white working class would turn on him. That's not happening to the degree it needs to. In truth you don't need to offer the white working class much at all beyond vague racism unless you can demonstrate to them very specifically how their lives will improve.

    Additionally the Democrats have a major problem in that they believe their own bullshit (see this page). They will not adjust their strategy and are actively hostile to any one with intelligence who breaks this down for them (as many have tried). The Republicans do have some smart (perhaps "cunning" would be a better word) advisors who can react flexibly to events, even if the official leadership is sub-literate.
    This seems fairly accurate to me. What's astonishing is that this information is presented dispassionately, but as you say Team Blue folks will lose their minds over it instead of trying to figure what to do instead.

    I liken people voting for Trump similar to what Taibbi calls the "fuck you vote" in Hate Inc, IIRC. And if Howard Stern is to be believed, I think the disdain goes both ways. Trump's voters don't like him, and he doesn't like them in return either. Yeah, they know he's an asshole. Yes, they probably think he's corrupt and a Russian mob money launderer via real estate and other investments. They don't care. They vote for him because its their way of making note of the degree to which they have stopped giving a shit. I personally have a lot of sympathy with that attitude. Point being: if I don't get what I want, I sure the hell am not doing anyone else any favors either. I owe others nothing.

    Now that's not how it should be, but that's the state of politics in the U.S right now. It's just too many decades of corruption and being told to wait one's turn. That turn is not forthcoming, not while they create disasters every 15-20 years to hollow us out. Just be sure to keep your retirement invested with Wall Street so they can keep playing casino with your old age funds. Hey, if things go sour you can be a greeter at Walmart.

    So what could the Dems do? Well, they could go full-throated FDR - but they absolutely refuse to do that.

    Here's the thing that continually astonishes me: 70% of americans support some kind of single-payer, national health service type thing. Are the Dems, leftists that they supposedly are, offering that this year? As we are in the midst of a pandemic they are offering that for sure, right? No, sadly Biden is in the pocket of the health insurance companies so the answer is "Fuck no!"

    Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts (oh, how the mighty fall to ID politics quackery):
    "I don’t understand why anyone goes through all the trouble of running for president of the United States to just talk about what we can’t do and what we shouldn’t fight for."
    I guess we could do a break down of those many bipartisan bailout plans that helped middle-class America thanks to the Dem's superb political acumen. Oh wait, no - none of that happened (countdown to mention of a onet-time $1200 stimulus because that covers all sins, we are bought cheaply these days). In fact, the Dems just keep kicking anyone with good ideas in the face. We ain't got time for that shit, Pelosi has to hurry home to a freezer full of choco ice cream.

    And so it goes...
    Last edited by Louisa Bannon; 2020-05-21 at 12:30 PM.

  4. #4284
    I Don't Work Here Endus's Avatar
    10+ Year Old Account
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Location
    Ottawa, ON
    Posts
    81,964
    Quote Originally Posted by Louisa Bannon View Post
    Here's the thing that continually astonishes me: 70% of americans support some kind of single-payer, national health service type thing. Are the Dems, leftists that they supposedly are, offering that this year? As we are in the midst of a pandemic they are offering that for sure, right? No, sadly Biden is in the pocket of the health insurance companies so the answer is "Fuck no!"
    Here's the bit that folks like yourself don't seem to "get".

    The DNC didn't pick Biden.

    Democratic voters picked Biden.

    There were candidates with much stronger medical platforms that were up against Biden, and most people preferred Biden anyway.

    You keep acting as if Biden was foisted upon the Democratic voters without them having a say, and that's false. They got a say, and their say was that they wanted Biden. And the race wasn't even really close.

    This isn't being foisted on the voters by some soulless corporate party bureaucracy. This is the voters, voting. This is what people decided they wanted.


  5. #4285
    The Unstoppable Force Ghostpanther's Avatar
    10+ Year Old Account
    Join Date
    Dec 2012
    Location
    USA, Ohio
    Posts
    24,111
    Quote Originally Posted by Hobb View Post
    Actually no. Trump's approval rate right now is 43.9% and Obama's was 49%.

    They're not even close.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...s/?cid=rrpromo

    Scroll down to the bottom and you can see how badly Trump stacks up against past presidents. Only ones he's close to are the ones who lost their re-election bid.
    They are only using 5 sources. RealClearPolitics, uses 11. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...oval-6179.html

    He is close to 46% now. Average.
    " If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher.." - Abraham Lincoln
    The Constitution be never construed to authorize Congress to - prevent the people of the United States, who are peaceable citizens, from keeping their own arms..” - Samuel Adams

  6. #4286
    Quote Originally Posted by Louisa Bannon View Post
    This seems fairly accurate to me. What's astonishing is that this information is presented dispassionately, but as you say Team Blue folks will lose their minds over it instead of trying to figure what to do instead.

    I liken people voting for Trump similar to what Taibbi calls the "fuck you vote" in Hate Inc, IIRC. And if Howard Stern is to be believed, I think the disdain goes both ways. Trump's voters don't like him, and he doesn't like them in return either. Yeah, they know he's an asshole. Yes, they probably think he's corrupt and a Russian mob money launderer via real estate and other investments. They don't care. They vote for him because its their way of making note of the degree to which they have stopped giving a shit. I personally have a lot of sympathy with that attitude. Point being: if I don't get what I want, I sure the hell am not doing anyone else any favors either. I owe others nothing.

    Now that's not how it should be, but that's the state of politics in the U.S right now. It's just too many decades of corruption and being told to wait one's turn. That turn is not forthcoming, not while they create disasters every 15-20 years to hollow us out. Just be sure to keep your retirement invested with Wall Street so they can keep playing casino with your old age funds. Hey, if things go sour you can be a greeter at Walmart.

    So what could the Dems do? Well, they could go full-throated FDR - but they absolutely refuse to do that.

    Here's the thing that continually astonishes me: 70% of americans support some kind of single-payer, national health service type thing. Are the Dems, leftists that they supposedly are, offering that this year? As we are in the midst of a pandemic they are offering that for sure, right? No, sadly Biden is in the pocket of the health insurance companies so the answer is "Fuck no!"

    Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts (oh, how the mighty fall to ID politics quackery):

    I guess we could do a break down of those many bipartisan bailout plans that helped middle-class America thanks to the Dem's superb political acumen. Oh wait, no - none of that happened (countdown to mention of a onet-time $1200 stimulus because that covers all sins, we are bought cheaply these days). In fact, the Dems just keep kicking anyone with good ideas in the face. We ain't got time for that shit, Pelosi has to hurry home to a freezer full of choco ice cream.

    And so it goes...
    If voters supposedly want those things, then why didn't Bernie get more votes?

    Just because people may happen to want something, does not mean it's a high priority for why they vote. Americans tend to focus on a single issue, and it's clear that universal healthcare is not that single issue for a majority of voters. You can whine about "corporations" all you like, but the voters disagree with you.

  7. #4287
    The Unstoppable Force Ghostpanther's Avatar
    10+ Year Old Account
    Join Date
    Dec 2012
    Location
    USA, Ohio
    Posts
    24,111
    Quote Originally Posted by DocSavageFan View Post
    RCP has Biden up over Trump by 5.6 points. Looks like this one is in the pocket!
    Hillary at this point in the election year of 2016 was even more favored than Biden is now. By the time election day rolled around, she was 4 -5 % points ahead. And the year Obama was reelected in 2012, Him and Romney where very close and Obama won easily. Polls are interesting to see and can indicate some trends in some areas. But a national poll on approval does not mean much at all in who will win. Two states in the Union are very anti-Trump and they happen to have a ton of people in them. So he will never get over 50% approval rating on average. But he does not need to.
    " If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher.." - Abraham Lincoln
    The Constitution be never construed to authorize Congress to - prevent the people of the United States, who are peaceable citizens, from keeping their own arms..” - Samuel Adams

  8. #4288
    Void Lord Felya's Avatar
    10+ Year Old Account
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Location
    the other
    Posts
    58,334
    Quote Originally Posted by Ghostpanther View Post
    So he will never get over 50% approval rating on average. But he does not need to.
    Need is interesting... a president in a democracy doesn’t need 50%, it just doesn’t look good. I guess it depends if Trump needs to have majority of Americans approve his actions, or if reelection in spite of American populace is the goal.

    What was it that a Trump supported told me here recently? If Trump wanted to get more than 50% of popular support, he could... but, it’s easier to win the election if your politics are in spite of what majority of Americans want.
    Last edited by Felya; 2020-05-21 at 12:56 PM.
    Folly and fakery have always been with us... but it has never before been as dangerous as it is now, never in history have we been able to afford it less. - Isaac Asimov
    Every damn thing you do in this life, you pay for. - Edith Piaf
    The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. - Orwell
    No amount of belief makes something a fact. - James Randi

  9. #4289
    Quote Originally Posted by Endus View Post
    The DNC didn't pick Biden.

    Democratic voters picked Biden.
    No, you can't just act like this isn't a matter of controversy. My understanding is that there is much behind the scenes that kneecaps the opposition to whatever party elites may want. Somewhere in here I have mentioned "counter-scheduling" - that's not a tactic used by people that want to give full reign to what "people" want, the elite will decide for them.

    Dude, 1968 Democratic National Convention - all that stuff in the park happened because the elite care what the people want? Yeah, I am going back a ways, but not much has changed.

    Is it supposed to be some weird accident that Sanders' former campaign advisers are now running a Biden Super PAC? I guess shit just happens, nothing to see here.

    We can agree to disagree here, but I think you are wrong. I am willing to believe that people, even if they make a decision themselves, are not well informed. People mainly get told what to do. They get the signal from MSNBC, CNN, the NYT, or someone like Congressman James E. Clyburn - then they go to the polls.

    You can't pretend that hundreds of hours of free air time doesn't persuade people how to act. Motherfucking Bill Maher, fake liberal, was talking about Joe Biden probably fully a year ago, about two months back he began to worry Biden couldn't handle it. I mean, you want something to worry about? Every time Trump takes a shit we have to hear about it. You don't think it embeds in the imagination of a gullible population that he's presidential such that we should keep him?

    This election is far from over, and I think people backed the wrong horse - hugely. We shall see. I don't personally care either way. Biden will not get my vote.

    P.S. I have stated before that the corporate powers over both parties don't care who wins, that's why the Dem party elites were more concerned about screwing over Sanders than winning this election: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/u...delegates.html (might be paywalled, apologies). That's kind of a fluffy piece, but you can read in between the lines. We know how it played out. Sanders was on top. Biden was initially nowheresville. Then suddenly Biden was the man and you could see everyone fall in line, even Sanders. Yet another reason I am about the policies Sanders supported rather than the man himself. In the end, he's kind of a wet noodle.
    Last edited by Louisa Bannon; 2020-05-21 at 01:30 PM.

  10. #4290
    Void Lord Felya's Avatar
    10+ Year Old Account
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Location
    the other
    Posts
    58,334
    Quote Originally Posted by Louisa Bannon View Post
    No, you can't just act like this isn't a matter of controversy. My understanding is that there is much behind the scenes that kneecaps the opposition to whatever party elites may want. Somewhere in here I have mentioned "counter-scheduling" - that's not a tactic used by people that want to give full reign to what "people" want, the elite will decide for them.
    Yes, dues ex machina, to conform to your opinion. Bernie lost the vote of the people, twice. At some point, realizing that your bubble support of Bernie, doesn’t translate in the south, has to set in. At some point, as Bernie claims to be a democratic socialist, while GOP points and screams that this is the evil socialism they have been demonizing for decades, has to set in. At some point, the they are all the same, while GOP is building aniSocialist rhetoric, has to set off light bulbs.
    Folly and fakery have always been with us... but it has never before been as dangerous as it is now, never in history have we been able to afford it less. - Isaac Asimov
    Every damn thing you do in this life, you pay for. - Edith Piaf
    The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. - Orwell
    No amount of belief makes something a fact. - James Randi

  11. #4291
    Quote Originally Posted by Louisa Bannon View Post
    No, you can't just act like this isn't a matter of controversy. My understanding is that there is much behind the scenes that kneecaps the opposition to whatever party elites may want. Somewhere in here I have mentioned "counter-scheduling" - that's not a tactic used by people that want to give full reign to what "people" want, the elite will decide for them.

    Dude, 1968 Democratic National Convention - all that stuff in the park happened because the elite care what the people want? Yeah, I am going back a ways, but not much has changed.

    Is it supposed to be some weird accident that Sanders' former campaign advisers are now running a Biden Super PAC? I guess shit just happens, nothing to see here.

    We can agree to disagree here, but I think you are wrong. I am willing to believe that people, even if they make a decision themselves, are not well informed. People mainly get told what to do. They get the signal from MSNBC, CNN, the NYT, or someone like Congressman James E. Clyburn - then they go to the polls.

    You can't pretend that hundreds of hours of free air time doesn't persuade people how to act. Motherfucking Bill Maher, fake liberal, was talking about Joe Biden probably fully a year ago, about two months back he began to worry Biden couldn't handle it. I mean, you want something to worry about? Every time Trump takes a shit we have to hear about it. You don't think it embeds in the imagination of a gullible population that he's presidential such that we should keep him?

    This election is far from over, and I think people backed the wrong horse - hugely. We shall see. I don't personally care either way. Biden will not get my vote.

    P.S. I have stated before that the corporate powers over both parties don't care who wins, that's why the Dem party elites were more concerned about screwing over Sanders than winning this election: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/u...delegates.html (might be paywalled, apologies). That's kind of a fluffy piece, but you can read in between the lines. We know how it played out. Sanders was on top. Biden was initially nowheresville. Then suddenly Biden was the man and you could see everyone fall in line, even Sanders. Yet another reason I am about the policies Sanders supported rather than the man himself. In the end, he's kind of a wet noodle.
    But, as has been pointed out... people backed that horse. Biden got more votes than Bernie, and Bernie wasn't the victim of foul play.

    Your own article shows that it's about handing it to Bernie, if he doesn't get a majority of delegates. Bernie was on top... after a few states, and Biden took Super Tuesday.

  12. #4292
    His former advisers, now the Biden Super PAC - must I connect all of the dots? You think these things just happen, yes?

    I don't. Cui bono?

  13. #4293
    Void Lord Felya's Avatar
    10+ Year Old Account
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Location
    the other
    Posts
    58,334
    Quote Originally Posted by Machismo View Post
    But, as has been pointed out... people backed that horse. Biden got more votes than Bernie, and Bernie wasn't the victim of foul play.

    Your own article shows that it's about handing it to Bernie, if he doesn't get a majority of delegates. Bernie was on top... after a few states, and Biden took Super Tuesday.
    2016... Hillary lost because we didn’t listen to the rust belt and south. She was too closed in for her neoliberal bubble.
    2020... Bernie got screwed by DNC, who gives a shit about Florida and southern states. They want socialism, just listen to them!
    Folly and fakery have always been with us... but it has never before been as dangerous as it is now, never in history have we been able to afford it less. - Isaac Asimov
    Every damn thing you do in this life, you pay for. - Edith Piaf
    The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. - Orwell
    No amount of belief makes something a fact. - James Randi

  14. #4294
    The Insane Acidbaron's Avatar
    10+ Year Old Account
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Location
    Belgium, Flanders
    Posts
    18,230
    The only people confused about the Biden over Sanders nomination are people who believe that the democratic party is mostly progressive and left leaning. What is not the case, they are home to such ideologies and welcome them but they are not the majority inside the party.

    This is probably also why people got so angry or confused about Obama, he was a centrist not a leftist.

    I think this is why people or posters needs there to be some sort of scandal because the the reality that their party isn't as representative (yet) of them as they like is a worse reality for them.
    Last edited by Acidbaron; 2020-05-21 at 01:50 PM.

  15. #4295
    Old God AntiFascistVoter's Avatar
    10+ Year Old Account
    Join Date
    Jul 2012
    Location
    Shitposting Agasint Fascists
    Posts
    10,640
    Quote Originally Posted by Felya View Post
    Yes, dues ex machina, to conform to your opinion. Bernie lost the vote of the people, twice. At some point, realizing that your bubble support of Bernie, doesn’t translate in the south, has to set in. At some point, as Bernie claims to be a democratic socialist, while GOP points and screams that this is the evil socialism they have been demonizing for decades, has to set in. At some point, the they are all the same, while GOP is building aniSocialist rhetoric, has to set off light bulbs.
    It's no surprise. These "Fusion Leftists" (their new speak), have spent their lives maliging and being aloof from the electoral process. The just do not understand how voting works. They cannot comprehend other people building a coalition to vote for a person.

    The irony!
    • Cosplay socialists can not comprehend that voting is a collective action.
    • They think their vote is an individual negotiation with Biden, or the DNC. And that they have all of the leverage for no reason but their own ego.
    • They also seem to be holding their vote like an incel curating their virginity.... making endless fake excuses why no one is good enough for them.
    Government Affiliated Snark

  16. #4296
    Void Lord Felya's Avatar
    10+ Year Old Account
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Location
    the other
    Posts
    58,334
    Quote Originally Posted by Louisa Bannon View Post
    His former advisers, now the Biden Super PAC - must I connect all of the dots? You think these things just happen, yes?
    Yes, you need to connect the dots. Because Bernie losing in southern states, seems to be the fact that Bernie doesn’t have the same appeal in the southern states. You need to connect the conspiracy dots, because it’s going to be hard to swing Occam’s razor in your favor.
    Folly and fakery have always been with us... but it has never before been as dangerous as it is now, never in history have we been able to afford it less. - Isaac Asimov
    Every damn thing you do in this life, you pay for. - Edith Piaf
    The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. - Orwell
    No amount of belief makes something a fact. - James Randi

  17. #4297
    I am Murloc! Noxx79's Avatar
    7+ Year Old Account
    Join Date
    May 2016
    Location
    Kansas. Yes, THAT Kansas.
    Posts
    5,474
    Quote Originally Posted by Louisa Bannon View Post
    His former advisers, now the Biden Super PAC - must I connect all of the dots? You think these things just happen, yes?

    I don't. Cui bono?
    Wow, people make deals in politics?

    O M G

  18. #4298
    Banned JohnBrown1917's Avatar
    10+ Year Old Account
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Обединени социалистически щати на Америка
    Posts
    28,394
    Don't be surprised about the dem voters(and party) picking Biden, you do indeed need to realize its a liberal-conservative coalition party, with a few rare Soc dems littered in.
    So get angry at the party because they push shit policies, but these are written up/pushed by its own members.


    Accept it and move on to a new party, you live in a democracy, support a party that supports you. One that adreses income inequality, withdraws its support from Israel/SA and stops supporting so many wars.
    Last edited by JohnBrown1917; 2020-05-21 at 01:55 PM.

  19. #4299
    Void Lord Felya's Avatar
    10+ Year Old Account
    Join Date
    Jun 2010
    Location
    the other
    Posts
    58,334
    Quote Originally Posted by Milchshake View Post
    It's no surprise. These "Fusion Leftists" (their new speak), have spent their lives maliging and being aloof from the electoral process. The just do not understand how voting works. They cannot comprehend other people building a coalition to vote for a person.
    When the dichotomy of two sides, one argues that they are all the same, while the other argues that socialism is driven by people who smell of sulfur. How is this not a highway to Plutacracy?

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by CommunismWillWin View Post
    Accept it and move on to a new party, you live in a democracy, support a party that supports you. One that adreses income inequality, withdrews its support from Israel/SA and stops supporting so many wars.
    An additional bonus, you get to always act indignant, because your issues will never be resolved and you are never actually participating to change that. It’s a sure way to make sure your talking points, never change.
    Folly and fakery have always been with us... but it has never before been as dangerous as it is now, never in history have we been able to afford it less. - Isaac Asimov
    Every damn thing you do in this life, you pay for. - Edith Piaf
    The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. - Orwell
    No amount of belief makes something a fact. - James Randi

  20. #4300
    Old God AntiFascistVoter's Avatar
    10+ Year Old Account
    Join Date
    Jul 2012
    Location
    Shitposting Agasint Fascists
    Posts
    10,640
    Quote Originally Posted by Felya View Post
    When the dichotomy of two sides, one argues that they are all the same, while the other argues that socialism is driven by people who smell of sulfur. How is this not a highway to Plutacracy?
    Naw, just two types of the same person.

    Former Ron Paul supporters still covered by their parents healthcare.
    Former Ron Paul supporters not covered by their parents healthcare.

    Both are content to let the world burn if they dont get their way.
    Government Affiliated Snark

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •