Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[cubby]

One great thing about Biden is that if someone makes the point that he's wrong about this - which he clearly is - he'll actually back off the point. What a concept, a politician acting like an adult.

Exactly. It's amazing that the GOP has taken such a hard stance against learning new things and even reading.

[beanman12345]

IIRC, there is a somewhat set strategy for the ad buys and attack ads. I don't think anyone is running attack ads, aside from Team Deplorable, and that might be the reason.

I agree that the Democrats are horrible at playing by the same rule set the GOP invokes. Taking the moral high ground is wonderful, but can result in a cataclysmic loss. Which we can not afford this time around.

Just waiting till Bloomberg starts pouring money into this again. His ads were pretty brutal towards Trump, even if they were ineffective in making want to vote for him.

[Draco-Onis]

I agree - it couldn't hurt at all to start putting out material, especially "teasers" like the Lincoln Project. I would rather see them doing this than not, I just hope my explanation is why we haven't yet.

Biden hired a new campaign manager, didn't he?

I believe he got a new one months ago after the Clyburn endorsement and his win pre COVID. However that is besides the point Biden now has the DNC, countless democratic superpacs and operatives at his disposal all with decades of experience. However even with all that the most effective attacks against Trump have been from the nevertrumpers. The Trump campaign is dominating the internet especially social media and the airwaves it just makes them look weak like they aren't fighting back.

[cubby]

The polls thing, I look at to point out how things are skewed. I looked at the last few weeks and at the ispsos and firehouse etc and they all oversampled democrats by at least 7% and as high as 10%. So then I looked at the make up of the polls used. They give an A+ rating to a poll that does not list party affiliation. If that poll showed Trump up by 10, would you want to see the make up? The 4 most recent polls were the one I linked, and 3 from the abc/washingtonpost that show percentages within parties but no party affiliation. That doesn't bother you? If you use it as a stat then find out it oversampled democrats by 10%+ and had Biden up by say 4 points, wouldn't you be worried about that?

To make a poll credible it would have to be closer to say a 30-30 mix +/- 2% with a closer to 40% independent. or say 35-35-30 but not a 36/27 or even a 34/28...that is how you got polls like last election.

Made a mistake about the polls, was using their website, not 538

I think what you're suggesting is more of a focus group rather than a poll. Polls are set up to use a random selection of a specific population. They are inherently flawed because it's just a cutaway from the population, not the entire population - which is why you get into statistical analysis of polls.

And it's also why places like 538 are using aggregates of polls - their site is now set up to show that, rather than any specific poll for their data sets (although IIRC you can still access each individual poll).

Now that I'm seeing the full picture of what you're suggesting, I think there are some serious flaws in any results you might get.

Do you know of places that are doing polls like what you're suggesting?

[Draco-Onis]

Exactly my point. And the second I see an actual Democratic group taking the gloves off actually tearing into the GOP, I will donate to them instead. Until then, if pissed off Republicans are the only ones willing to actually hit hard, I am giving it to them.

Here in South Carolina, Jaime Harrison is running the most touchy feely nice guy campaign I have seen in a long time. I haven't seen a single commercial laying into Lindsey. Instead, every add is either Harrison is a nice guy, or Harrison is a bad guy. Lindsey gets off without even getting targeted. And that is bullshit, that is how you lose.

Yes, the GOP wins because they make the rules, but the Democrats are completely pathetic at playing the game in the first place. I don't like nasty campaigning, but I really don't like electing people that are willing to play the nastiness. So I am willing to donate to people who are willing to be nasty on behalf of the person who won't.

very well said the democratic party keeps failing when it comes to this, it frankly makes me anxious about the general election because we know Biden doesn't have much fight in him.

[cubby]

I believe he got a new one months ago after the Clyburn endorsement and his win pre COVID. However that is besides the point Biden now has the DNC, countless democratic superpacs and operatives at his disposal all with decades of experience. However even with all that the most effective attacks against Trump have been from the nevertrumpers. The Trump campaign is dominating the internet especially social media and the airwaves it just makes them look weak like they aren't fighting back.

I want to delineate between what it seems like to you, which is entirely valid, and what it might seem like to others. It's true that Biden and the larger DNC/Super-PACs haven't started in with attack ads, but I would argue that it doesn't make them look weak. It might be the prudent thing to do, since Trump's own actions seem to be tanking his numbers atm.

I would suggest that perhaps the larger strategy right now is just putting out pro-Biden ads, figuring out how the fuck to run a national campaign amidst a global pandemic, and biding their time to run a slew of attack ads.

I don't think it makes Biden look weak, but that's my personal opinion, just as yours believes it does. What I'm more curious about is the strategy. Because you're right - they aren't running any attack ads. Only Republicans are running attacks ads against Trump right now. And those are pretty hard to counter-attack. Which is very interesting when you sit and think about it (that thought just occurred to me, btw).

What do you think?

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Just waiting till Bloomberg starts pouring money into this again. His ads were pretty brutal towards Trump, even if they were ineffective in making want to vote for him.

I can't wait as well. I'm psyched that he's keeping his commitment to throw so much of his personal cash at the Threat to America. I wonder what post they are going to give him if Biden wins? SecState? Because I don't give a fuck at this point.

[TexasRules]

What he said was wrong. And someone will probably brief him (a document Biden will read, something our Deplorable-in-Chief doesn't) on the subject matter and Biden will be better off for the conversation.

Trumpkins need to stop thinking that being wrong is bad, and therefore should be ridiculed. Being wrong is just an opportunity to learn something new, and demonstrate intellectual honesty. With our current Dear Leader and the GOP's push away from science and facts, it can be tough to wrap their head around that idea. But in the real world, people make mistakes and learn from them.




What is the difference you're trying to establish here? I just want to be clear what you're saying, I'm not trying to catch you in a "gotcha". We've chatted before on this specific subject, so I hope my question isn't unclear.

And doesn't 538 use an aggregate of polls? And isn't that the best form to use? If not, can you show me a better one, and why?

Can you use an aggregate of polls if the only polls you show the make up of are using at least 6-7% oversampling. Because it is also =/-3%. that could be as low as 3 which is okay, but as high as 10%. I am trying to say that I do not trust any poll that does not have what the sample is made of. The abc/washingtonpost poll shows 1 thing, democrats like Joe Biden at around 94% and republicans like Trump at a 95%. Does that mean anything? no. If you do not know who was sampled, can you tell what the independents % mean?no. Does that mean the poll matters? who knows?

Joe Biden is always wrong about guns. Go back to the shotgun debacle. He literally is Ron Burgundy at this point.

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I think what you're suggesting is more of a focus group rather than a poll. Polls are set up to use a random selection of a specific population. They are inherently flawed because it's just a cutaway from the population, not the entire population - which is why you get into statistical analysis of polls.

And it's also why places like 538 are using aggregates of polls - their site is now set up to show that, rather than any specific poll for their data sets (although IIRC you can still access each individual poll).

Now that I'm seeing the full picture of what you're suggesting, I think there are some serious flaws in any results you might get.

Do you know of places that are doing polls like what you're suggesting?

No, and I have been looking. After 2016 I have been trying to find better polling places but none of them are even remotely close. I would take a 25-25-50 spread with that much Independent but that just doesn't exist in America, everyone has an opinion. If you look at that 538 aggregate, even the FOX poll doesn't list who they surveyed. I do not understand why they are not posting it. Maybe it's because it is June and they are weary of being way off again. There has to be a reason, I do not think they are intentionally showing one way or another, I just can't figure out why.

[beanman12345]

I can't wait as well. I'm psyched that he's keeping his commitment to throw so much of his personal cash at the Threat to America. I wonder what post they are going to give him if Biden wins? SecState? Because I don't give a fuck at this point.

I just read an article from about a week ago that he's strategizing where to allocate the money, straight to Biden Pacs, the DNC, or independent groups. And I have no doubt he'll contribute a considerable amount down ticket. Republicans are having a major retirement spree across the house, so they are basically conceding the house already, which is ripe to widen the lead there.

The RNC is gonna focus almost all their attention on a few senate seats and the presidency. And I think several of those senate seats and the presidency can be won. If that "buys" Bloomberg a seat at the table, I also don't give a fuck at this point.

Until Citizens United can be overturned need to use it against them.

[Hobb]

You actually look at that poll of 835 people? It doesn't actually say how many people identify with which party, just percentages of who they vote for. It's literally trash. I just looked at the 40 poll average, where the first a yougov poll had 36% democrat 27% Republican....not biased at all

But you know what is not trash, Joe Biden and his new hot take on police shooting to wound instead of kill:
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/biden-sugg...201750470.html



Joe Biden doesn't apparently know how guns work. If you’re not prepared to kill someone, you should not even point a loaded gun at them, much less fire it. If you don’t have grounds to shoot to kill, you don’t have grounds to shoot. Hey look I will shoot at this guy's leg, miss and have it ricochet into a bystander near by. Great plan Joe.

No matter how much you want to deny reality.....everything out there points to Trump losing in November.

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I'm thrilled with this information, and hope it continues to get better for Biden. But at the same time, we cannot afford to let up for even a second. We have to keep pushing at every angle every day to make sure Trump is defeated.

But yeah - those are fucking awesome numbers.

I agree, the democrats need to keep on pushing along as if they're behind in the polls. Complacency or idleness could end up costing them.

But as it is 538 is hinting at a second possible blue wave this coming November based on the current senate polls.

[Draco-Onis]

I want to delineate between what it seems like to you, which is entirely valid, and what it might seem like to others. It's true that Biden and the larger DNC/Super-PACs haven't started in with attack ads, but I would argue that it doesn't make them look weak. It might be the prudent thing to do, since Trump's own actions seem to be tanking his numbers atm.

I would suggest that perhaps the larger strategy right now is just putting out pro-Biden ads, figuring out how the fuck to run a national campaign amidst a global pandemic, and biding their time to run a slew of attack ads.

I don't think it makes Biden look weak, but that's my personal opinion, just as yours believes it does. What I'm more curious about is the strategy. Because you're right - they aren't running any attack ads. Only Republicans are running attacks ads against Trump right now. And those are pretty hard to counter-attack. Which is very interesting when you sit and think about it (that thought just occurred to me, btw).

What do you think?

I think the lesson of 2020 is that everything is uncertain, the time to pounce on Trump and pound him into the ground is now since we don't know what will happen next. If you think about it logically without COVID and now the protest Trump's numbers would be neck and neck with Biden. At the same time we know Trump is going to do everything including illegal things to win, the senate, Bill Barr among other operatives are already preparing to blow up the airwaves with investigations.

We are going to have to agree to disagree, this is not a boxing match this is a knock out street fight everything goes the Lincoln project knows this not sure why democrats are afraid to get their hands dirty. They need to stop thinking and to quote Trump DO SOMETHING.

[cubby]

I think the lesson of 2020 is that everything is uncertain, the time to pounce on Trump and pound him into the ground is now since we don't know what will happen next. If you think about it logically without COVID and now the protest Trump's numbers would be neck and neck with Biden. At the same time we know Trump is going to do everything including illegal things to win, the senate, Bill Barr among other operatives are already preparing to blow up the airwaves with investigations.

We are going to have to agree to disagree, this is not a boxing match this is a knock out street fight everything goes the Lincoln project knows this not sure why democrats are afraid to get their hands dirty. They need to stop thinking and to quote Trump DO SOMETHING.

I don't think we disagree that much - I know that Team Deplorable is going to pull out all the shenanigans to win in November, including voter suppression and DOJ investigation, so we can't let up or play by a different rule book. I think the Lincoln Project is a good start, and it's possible that was their audition for the DNC/Super-PACs - or perhaps even to see what Team Deplorable would do (i.e. the counter suit cease-and-desist order).

The DNC and Biden do need to do something, but right now it seems like Trump is doing all the damage they need. Perhaps they are just gearing up for a July/August onslaught for before/after the Convention.

[Thekri]

I don't think we disagree that much - I know that Team Deplorable is going to pull out all the shenanigans to win in November, including voter suppression and DOJ investigation, so we can't let up or play by a different rule book. I think the Lincoln Project is a good start, and it's possible that was their audition for the DNC/Super-PACs - or perhaps even to see what Team Deplorable would do (i.e. the counter suit cease-and-desist order).

The DNC and Biden do need to do something, but right now it seems like Trump is doing all the damage they need. Perhaps they are just gearing up for a July/August onslaught for before/after the Convention.

I am really hoping it is just voter suppression and investigations. I have been downplaying fears that Trump would do something drastic, but this current situation has me legitimately concerned we are headed toward something much more dangerous. Trump is about to put federal troops into cities to suppress protestors that hate him. We aren't heading toward a dark future, we are fucking there. The economy is broken, a hundred thousand are dead from disease, and that number is set to skyrocket, and the military is about to get involved. The one thing I have been saying absolutely cannot happen is finally coming. Once the military starts being used against US citizens to control the Presidents opponents... well, lets just say suspending the November elections seems a lot more likely now then it did a month ago.

The worse the polls get, the more desperate Trump is going to get. He wins by changing the rules. He can't afford to lose, he is too pretty for jail. He has already proven he would rather burn this nation down then leave. Shit is going to get a lot worse before it gets better.

[cubby]

I am really hoping it is just voter suppression and investigations. I have been downplaying fears that Trump would do something drastic, but this current situation has me legitimately concerned we are headed toward something much more dangerous. Trump is about to put federal troops into cities to suppress protestors that hate him. We aren't heading toward a dark future, we are fucking there. The economy is broken, a hundred thousand are dead from disease, and that number is set to skyrocket, and the military is about to get involved. The one thing I have been saying absolutely cannot happen is finally coming. Once the military starts being used against US citizens to control the Presidents opponents... well, lets just say suspending the November elections seems a lot more likely now then it did a month ago.

The worse the polls get, the more desperate Trump is going to get. He wins by changing the rules. He can't afford to lose, he is too pretty for jail. He has already proven he would rather burn this nation down then leave. Shit is going to get a lot worse before it gets better.

You did and you have - it never occurred to me that Trump's use of military against citizens would take this form - it should have, of course, it just didn't. The bolded part is the scariest part of your very prescient and frightening point filled post.

[Draco-Onis]

You did and you have - it never occurred to me that Trump's use of military against citizens would take this form - it should have, of course, it just didn't. The bolded part is the scariest part of your very prescient and frightening point filled post.

I think all options are on the table, Trump is fighting for his life, if he loses this election he will lose everything. That is why I am terrified to see democrats pulling their punches. They need to pound him hard when he is down, all the superpacs should be flooding social media and the airwaves right now with Lincoln project type ads.

[Omega10]

I am really hoping it is just voter suppression and investigations. I have been downplaying fears that Trump would do something drastic, but this current situation has me legitimately concerned we are headed toward something much more dangerous. Trump is about to put federal troops into cities to suppress protestors that hate him. We aren't heading toward a dark future, we are fucking there. The economy is broken, a hundred thousand are dead from disease, and that number is set to skyrocket, and the military is about to get involved. The one thing I have been saying absolutely cannot happen is finally coming. Once the military starts being used against US citizens to control the Presidents opponents... well, lets just say suspending the November elections seems a lot more likely now then it did a month ago.

The worse the polls get, the more desperate Trump is going to get. He wins by changing the rules. He can't afford to lose, he is too pretty for jail. He has already proven he would rather burn this nation down then leave. Shit is going to get a lot worse before it gets better.

Unfortunately, I am in agreement with this.

Take care of yourself and your loved ones. And find happiness wherever you can find it

I've been reasonably successful at emotionally distancing myself from all the crap that is going on. The slow motion train wreck that we are witnessing takes its toll. In the midst of all of this chaos and turmoil, and of the visible and actually fairly drastic decline in the US, we have to live, and as much as possible be true to ourselves and our families (where "family" is the set of people you really care about, whether or not they are biological family members).

[Crardlast]

The worse the polls get, the more desperate Trump is going to get. He wins by changing the rules. He can't afford to lose, he is too pretty for jail. He has already proven he would rather burn this nation down then leave. Shit is going to get a lot worse before it gets better.

Trump is just what you people are without all the bullshit, quit the melodramatic bullshit Jeb.

[Louisa Bannon]

There are issues at present that polls don't even begin to address.

Voter turnout is going to be a big deal probably. When I was checking out stats about VAP percentages over the years (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_...tial_elections) the years where there are pointed declines seem relatively obvious if you think about them for just a moment. In the lead up to the Civil War voter participation was quite high and stayed reasonably high until around 1900. It drops more than 12% at the approx time of the Spanish Flu. It drops another 4% for the Depression. It rises again around WWII and the Korean War. It dips again post Nixon and for the Savings and Loans crisis. It dips twice during Clinton. If it dips 12-16% from the last election because of Covid-19, economic disaster, and race riots it will be the lowest turnout on record.

Anyway, here's John Oliver on the possibility of mail-in voting and how that's going to be a problem too:

[Sunseeker]

Anyway, here's John Oliver on the possibility of mail-in voting and how that's going to be a problem too:

Nothing in his video talks about mail-in-voting being a problem, aside from the fact that Republicans sure are trying to make it into one.

And before you say "You didn't have time to watch that since I posted!"...I watched it this morning.

[Thekri]

Trump is just what you people are without all the bullshit, quit the melodramatic bullshit Jeb.

Well at least you have all 4700 posts of mine to figure out what I am, because I have only ever posted here on one account. So however much you may disagree with me, my stance is my stance, and it is consistent, and I am open to discussing why I believe what I do.

I am more then happy to have that conversation with you, if you would like to add any substance to your claim. As it is, I might as well shout into the wind, because you have a two post account with no substance in either post, so I have really no idea what you stand for. If you have a position, let me know, and then we might have something to discuss.

[Elegiac]

There are issues at present that polls don't even begin to address.

Polls generally aren't reflective of problems that you imagine in your head, Karen.

Republicans tried the "restrict mail in voting during a literal plague to suppress turnout" strategy in Wisconsin, and you know what happened? They lost the state judiciary race.

Sit down.