Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[Trunditch]

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Guess Reagan liked torturing kittens, and separately liked pedophiles.

Reagan didn't believe in economic sanctions, thinking they would hurt the very people they were trying to protect. That's not the same as supporting apartheid.

There is a mountain of evidence to support the notion that Reagan opposed apartheid whatever other faults he may have had. I'd have thought you would at least have the intelligence to read the post above and work out that nominating a black ambassador was a fairly obvious fuck you to Pretoria.

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Not gonna bother with further responses but...

You don't make responses because you don't have the intellectual capacity to respond. Like most corporate democrats you use every dirty trick under the sun to marginalize any dissenting viewpoint and then you express this astonishment when you find out the Republicans fight dirtier than you.

[Machismo]

-snip-

Great, let's see that mountain of evidence.

[Trunditch]

These numbers are good so far: not that I'm counting any chickens. I'm still terrified.

Not this crap again. If those numbers are good then you should surely take the even-money you can get on Biden with the sportbooks. That's the investment of a lifetime. 100% return on investment.

In truth, Biden and Trump have a roughly 50-50 chance each, certainly no more than 45-55.

For some reason partisan supporters of both parties like to pretend their guy is a racing certainty. Reality does not work that way. It is fucking stupid. Stop doing it. Being retarded at math does not help your candidate win.

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Great, let's see that mountain of evidence.

You could, you know, learn how to google things, eg nytimes.com/1986/07/23/world/transcript-of-talk-by-reagan-on-south-africa-and-apartheid.html...
The root cause of South Africa's disorder is apartheid, that rigid system of racial segregation wherein black people have been treated as third-class citizens in a nation they helped to build. America's view of apartheid has been, and remains, clear: apartheid is morally wrong and politically unacceptable. The United States cannot maintain cordial relations with a government whose power rests upon the denial of rights to a majority of its people, based on race.

That took me 6.72 seconds.

How did you manage to turn your computer on?

[Edge-]

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...t-hunter-biden

An audit of thousands of old case files by Ukrainian prosecutors found no evidence of wrongdoing on the part of Hunter Biden, the former prosecutor general, who had launched the audit, told Reuters.

Ruslan Ryaboshapka was in the spotlight last year as the man who would decide whether to launch an investigation into former vice president Joe Biden and his son Hunter, in what became a key issue in the impeachment of President Donald Trump.

Not that this will stop Republican conspiracy theories in the Senate or White House, but the obvious is still pretty flipping obvious.

[Machismo]

-snip-

It's your claim, why do you want me to back up your claims for you?

[Felya]

Not this crap again. If those numbers are good then you should surely take the even-money you can get on Biden with the sportbooks. That's the investment of a lifetime. 100% return on investment.

Even money?

2020 Presidential Betting Odds Favor Biden Over Trump For First Time
https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackjon...or-first-time/

While the betting odds suggested a very different kind of race just a few months ago, everything appears to be “turning up Joe”, and the odds have swung in his favor.

I do love the evolution of the betting argument. First it was the most real, because people put their money on it... then it’s even money... what now?

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https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...t-hunter-biden



Not that this will stop Republican conspiracy theories in the Senate or White House, but the obvious is still pretty flipping obvious.

The fucked up thing about the whole Ukraine thing, Trump should be admonished for even talking to the prosecutor that was slandering Biden. He is a known oligarch puppet that has been siphoning money out of Ukraine into his and Russian oligarch pockets. The fact that Trump would trust him, is highly... I should say, should be... highly problematic.

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You could, you know, learn how to google things, eg nytimes.com/1986/07/23/world/transcript-of-talk-by-reagan-on-south-africa-and-apartheid.html...
The root cause of South Africa's disorder is apartheid, that rigid system of racial segregation wherein black people have been treated as third-class citizens in a nation they helped to build. America's view of apartheid has been, and remains, clear: apartheid is morally wrong and politically unacceptable. The United States cannot maintain cordial relations with a government whose power rests upon the denial of rights to a majority of its people, based on race.

That took me 6.72 seconds.

How did you manage to turn your computer on?

Did you just quote Reagan saying black people helped colonizers build Africa? Are you sure about that? Because from my perspective, colonizers stole their homes... not got help building them.

[kaelleria]

Even money?
2020 Presidential Betting Odds Favor Biden Over Trump For First Time
https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackjon...or-first-time/

I do love the evolution of the betting argument. First it was the most real, because people put their money on it... then it’s even money... what now?

Betting markets also think Dems will win the Senate... There's no scenario where Trump is president with a Blue Senate.

Betting markets aren't exactly smart

Thanks for coming to my TED talk.

Betting markets are one of the dumbest predictors.

[Felya]

It's your claim, why do you want me to back up your claims for you?

Just enjoy the guy calling Biden a segregationist, working over time to defend Reagan.

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Betting markets are one of the dumbest predictors.

It was posted, because it’s the only place projecting a Trump win... at the time. I think relevance of prediction methodology, is only justified... when it favors my opinion.

[Machismo]

Just enjoy the guy calling Biden a segregationist, working over time to defend Reagan.

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It was posted, because it’s the only place projecting a Trump win... at the time. I think relevance of prediction methodology, is only justified... when it favors my opinion.

The irony is rather adorable.

[AntiFascistVoter]

Betting markets are one of the dumbest predictors.

"Why don't you bet me bro!"

A cartoonish bluffing strategy favored by Frat Boys and Young College Republicans.

Examples include:

• Mitt "I'll bet you $10,000" Romney in the 2012 Debates.
• The WASP villains in many 80s movies
• Judge Elihu Smails in Caddyshack
• The villians in the Karate Kid
• The Villians in Ski School

I think his follow up stratgey will be to taunt people with, "My daddy is richer than your daddy."

[Cruntdist]

Betting markets are one of the dumbest predictors.

OK so if they are dumb predictors, then bet against them and make a ton of money. That was the point.

You are not doing that because you don't really believe Biden is a certainty, and you know very well the markets are essentially accurate.

In actuality betting markets are highly accurate, much more so than polls and certainly much more so that pundits. If they weren't people would be getting rich off bets all the time.

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"Why don't you bet me bro!"

A cartoonish bluffing strategy favored by Frat Boys and Young College Republicans.

As if any one would be stupid enough to pass up free money because its uncouth or vulgar or whatever bullshit you are using to justify the fact that you clearly don't believe what you are saying.

I'd say you just don't have any balls, but that doesn't make sense if you actually believe Biden is a 100% lock since there's no risk, right?

[Felya]

OK so if they are dumb predictors then bet against them and make money.

You are not doing that because you don't really believe Biden is a certainty.

Oh, that ban evading alt only posted it, because Trump was winning. Now that even that tide turned, I’m sure he will be back to tell us how worthless it is. Betting odds really don’t mater... you can bet on some of the more ridiculous things you can think of.

Uhm... typed before I noticed who this was... so... just leaving it as is.

[Gestopft]

You are not doing that because you don't really believe Biden is a certainty.

Has anyone actually said that they think he's a certainty? Because "Biden's numbers look better than Clinton's (a candidate that lost by less than a hundred thousand votes across three states) at this point in the election cycle" is by no means "Biden's got this in the bag."

[Felya]

Has anyone actually said that they think he's a certainty? Because "Biden's numbers look better than Clinton's (a candidate that lost by less than a hundred thousand votes across three states) at this point in the election cycle" is by no means "Biden's got this in the bag."

Just like last time... I’ll think they have it in the bag, as soon as Michigan is confirmed. I went to sleep after they announced Trump won Michigan in 2016... was on east coast at the time.

[Cruntdist]

Has anyone actually said that they think he's a certainty? Because "Biden's numbers look better than Clinton's (a candidate that lost by less than a hundred thousand votes across three states) at this point in the election cycle" is by no means "Biden's got this in the bag."

Er.........

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Just like last time... I’ll think they have it in the bag

Yes.........it seems...

[cubby]

Has anyone actually said that they think he's a certainty? Because "Biden's numbers look better than Clinton's (a candidate that lost by less than a hundred thousand votes across three states) at this point in the election cycle" is by no means "Biden's got this in the bag."

No one with any kind of political acumen will be saying anything is a certainty until all 50 states, or at least 270+ of them, have confirmed and ratified for Biden. We're not walking down 2016 again.

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Just like last time... I’ll think they have it in the bag, as soon as Michigan is confirmed. I went to sleep after they announced Trump won Michigan in 2016... was on east coast at the time.

Not following you here...are you saying that day-of election or so, then we'll know - not before then?

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Er.........

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Yes.........it seems...

Ok, burner. Love the selective quotes. Deplorable to the end.

[Felya]

Not following you here...are you saying that day-of election or so, then we'll know - not before then?

Yeah, I won’t know who won 100% at least until Michigan vote is confirmed.

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Ok, burner. Love the selective quotes. Deplorable to the end.

I didn’t even understand the point... the tense is preventing him from implying what I think he is trying to imply. But, I maintain past tense through the quote... you can’t really cut it.

[kaelleria]

OK so if they are dumb predictors, then bet against them and make a ton of money. That was the point.

You are not doing that because you don't really believe Biden is a certainty, and you know very well the markets are essentially accurate.

In actuality betting markets are highly accurate, much more so than polls and certainly much more so that pundits. If they weren't people would be getting rich off bets all the time.

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As if any one would be stupid enough to pass up free money because its uncouth or vulgar or whatever bullshit you are using to justify the fact that you clearly don't believe what you are saying.

I'd say you just don't have any balls, but that doesn't make sense if you actually believe Biden is a 100% lock since there's no risk, right?

2 things can be true...

• Political betting markets are dumb
• I'm still scared that Trump will somehow eke out a win... Not because I think he'll defy political gravity a second time, but because he is destroying our country.

Instead of betting, I'm going to invest my money and time into getting Biden and downballot democrats elected. I spent 2 months in NH leading up to the NH primary (not for Biden) and I'll be spending 2 months in PA getting Biden elected.

Why am I responding to a burner?

[Healing Rain]

What would Biden do about the national debt? Instead of coming up with programs that only keep poor people poor would Biden get rid of those programs and come up with ideas that are designed to help people find jobs that they'd excel at so would be payed a lot?

Biden pretty much has zero chance of getting my vote because I already know the answers to those questions.

[TigTone]

What would Biden do about the national debt? Instead of coming up with programs that only keep poor people poor would Biden get rid of those programs and come up with ideas that are designed to help people find jobs that they'd excel at so would be payed a lot?

Biden pretty much has zero chance of getting my vote because I already know the answers to those questions.

You should ask yourself what group is always mass cutting education.