1. #6041
    I Don't Work Here Endus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lady G View Post
    Polling in the shadow of Biden’s “10 to 15 percent of people are not good” gaffe.
    This, like Clinton's "deplorables" comment, were not "gaffes". They provided opportunities for exactly the people they were condemning to come forward and self-identify as "deplorable", or "not good", and feign offense at being correctly identified as such.

    That's it. Bad people whined that their existence was noticed.

    If you didn't think you fit the bill, neither of those statements could have been taken personally; Clinton said that half of Trump's supporters were a basket of deplorables; you're not deplorable? Then you're in the other half. You're a good person? Then maybe you're in the 85-90% of people Biden wasn't speaking about.

    But they never assumed that. They knew they were miserable, deplorable pieces of shit, and took offense that someone else could see that about them.

    That's not a "gaffe". That's an accurate analysis of the country's people. Yes, terrible people don't like being called out for being terrible, but that doesn't mean they're not terrible. And those terrible people know that.

    This was never about unwarranted accusations. This was always about these two Democrats being a little too blunt and on-the-nose in their description of people's character.


  2. #6042
    The Undying
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thekri View Post
    Trump isn't the only GOP candidate in an absolute free fall in the polls right now. For about 6 months, I have been working hard in a group targeting Lindsey Graham and...

    Here is the 538 page for South Carolina.

    In February, Graham led Harrison 54-37. They are now tied at 42-42, with Grahams disapproval rating at 56%. Harrison has plenty of room to grow, Graham really doesn't. This is how colossally the GOP is screwed this election. One of the most nationally recognized GOP senators, in a deep red state, is now on the ropes to an almost unknown Democratic challenger. Even if Graham pulls this out, the GOP is being forced to throw massive amounts of outside resources into South Carolina right now. And it isn't working, at all. 17 points disappearing in 3 months is just historically bad.

    The Senate is looking increasingly in play. In Arizona, McSally is about to achieve the rather impressive feat of somehow managing to lose BOTH of Arizona's senate seats to Democrats. It is quite amusing the GOP thought they should run a candidate that already lost once, and the democratic candidate is even stronger this time. In Colorado, Cory Gardner could not be more doomed, he is down 18 points as an incumbent. Even the Turtle himself has finally officially fallen behind in the polls, and McGrath is gaining momentum.

    Yes, Alabama is going to go back Red, although if Sessions pulls out a win, that won't be doing Trump many favors. Georgia is going to be a horrendously expensive effort for the GOP, as they try to defend two plutocrats at the same time. This is going to be rough fall for the GOP, cheating only gets you so far.
    I was gandering through the 538 site after I saw this posting - the poll numbers are insane. The GOP incumbents seem a lot more vulnerable than previously thought.

    Montana - Bullock is up 7 points over incumbent Daines.
    Arizona - you covered above, but lol re McSally, potentially losing two senate seats (that has to be some kind of record)
    Colorado - again, you mentioned above.
    Kansas - open seat (Roberts "retired"), DNC candidate polling evenly against potential GOP candidates
    Iowa - Greenfield up 3 points against incumbent Ernst
    Kentucky - McGrath 1 point up over McConnell
    Georgia - you mentioned
    South Carolina - you mentioned
    North Carolina - Cunningham 2 points over incumbent Tillis
    Maine - Collins (incumbent) is behind to both Democratic nominee runoff candidates.

    (data from here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/maine/)

    Now 11 vulnerable seats, including Senate Majority leaders and never-going-to-die Lamar Alexander. Damn.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Edge- View Post
    Didn't we learn last election that national polls, while likely reflective of the overall popular vote, aren't reflective of electoral college votes, and consequently of not a whole lot of value?
    Yes. Double yes. Perhaps it needs to be triple yes.

    However, it's all we have to go on up and until the election. Moreover, I think people are weary of polls and are taking them as more of trends rather than gospel. IMO, we shouldn't assume anything, at all, regardless of polling data, until the election is over and certified.

    But what else do we have?

  3. #6043
    Quote Originally Posted by cubby View Post
    However, it's all we have to go on up and until the election. Moreover, I think people are weary of polls and are taking them as more of trends rather than gospel. IMO, we shouldn't assume anything, at all, regardless of polling data, until the election is over and certified.
    Which, honestly, is precisely what polls should be for.

  4. #6044
    Quote Originally Posted by DarkTZeratul View Post
    Which, honestly, is precisely what polls should be for.
    They are....
    Which is why Trump and co are panicking and throwing mud just to see what sticks.

  5. #6045

  6. #6046
    Old God Milchshake's Avatar
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    Some posters get mad when I show polls where Trump is behind.

    Now I know how CNN feels...

    Trump campaign demands CNN apologize for poll that shows Biden leading
    Government Affiliated Snark

  7. #6047
    I Don't Work Here Endus's Avatar
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    I mean, unsurprising. Comey's investigation was pretty much the entire reason Clinton's campaign staggered, leading to a Trump victory in 2016. If bullshit investigations worked once, maybe they can work again.


  8. #6048
    Quote Originally Posted by Endus View Post
    This, like Clinton's "deplorables" comment, were not "gaffes". They provided opportunities for exactly the people they were condemning to come forward and self-identify as "deplorable", or "not good", and feign offense at being correctly identified as such.

    That's it. Bad people whined that their existence was noticed.

    If you didn't think you fit the bill, neither of those statements could have been taken personally; Clinton said that half of Trump's supporters were a basket of deplorables; you're not deplorable? Then you're in the other half. You're a good person? Then maybe you're in the 85-90% of people Biden wasn't speaking about.

    But they never assumed that. They knew they were miserable, deplorable pieces of shit, and took offense that someone else could see that about them.

    That's not a "gaffe". That's an accurate analysis of the country's people. Yes, terrible people don't like being called out for being terrible, but that doesn't mean they're not terrible. And those terrible people know that.

    This was never about unwarranted accusations. This was always about these two Democrats being a little too blunt and on-the-nose in their description of people's character.
    The impression I got of that comment was that "deplorable" was taken to mean a)uncouth and vulgar b) poor and c) not quite as obsessed with faux identity politics as Clinton. I can see why she lost that election. You think she meant "unreconstructed bigot"-didn't seem like that to me. She was using way too broad a brush.

    Whatever else may be wrong with Trump and his supporters, and the laundry list is a long one I have a hard time listening to that woman sneer at people. Even the worst Trump supporters have the excuse of being poor and stupid-she has neither. She is a vile human being who should be in jail along with Trump.

    Biden is a thoroughly useless human being, but his "10 to 15%" comment doesn't come across as badly as the deplorable gaffe.
    Last edited by Transith; 2020-06-10 at 08:30 PM.

  9. #6049
    I Don't Work Here Endus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Transith View Post
    The impression I got of that comment was that "deplorable" was taken to mean a)uncouth and vulgar b) poor and c) not quite as obsessed with faux identity politics as Clinton.
    Then you quite literally never even bothered to look up the complete sentence in which she used the phrase. Your position is entirely based on your own willful ignorance.


  10. #6050
    Quote Originally Posted by Endus View Post
    Then you quite literally never even bothered to look up the complete sentence in which she used the phrase. Your position is entirely based on your own willful ignorance.
    I'm aware of the context. Sorry, but if you really think that someone like Hilary Clinton doesn't know her remarks will be taken out of context you must be born yesterday. Trump's comments are also eg "Some Mexicans are rapists"-no one bothers with the full context because we know he's a racist piece of shit doing some dog-whistling.

    I'd add that while it is roughly correct to describe half of Trump's support base as bigoted, the Democrats don't exactly cover themselves in glory either-unreconstructed bigots form about a quarter of the Democrat party.

  11. #6051
    The Insane draynay's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Endus View Post
    Then you quite literally never even bothered to look up the complete sentence in which she used the phrase. Your position is entirely based on your own willful ignorance.
    Too busy registering emails and creating new burner accounts.
    /s

  12. #6052
    Quote Originally Posted by draynay View Post
    Too busy registering emails and creating new burner accounts.
    Yeah I'd go for trying to disqualify the argument on technical grounds too, you certainly aren't going to win this on the quality of the argument.

    I didn't even have to bring up the fact that Clinton's husband is essentially outed as a paedophile, as if that wasn't "deplorable".

  13. #6053
    Void Lord Felya's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Transith View Post
    Trump's comments are also eg "Some Mexicans are rapists"-no one bothers with the full context because we know he's a racist piece of shit doing some dog-whistling.
    Stop defending Trump:

    They're sending people that have a lot of problems, and they're bringing those problems with us. They're bringing drugs. They're bringing crime. They're rapists. And some, I assume, are good people.
    Folly and fakery have always been with us... but it has never before been as dangerous as it is now, never in history have we been able to afford it less. - Isaac Asimov
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  14. #6054
    Quote Originally Posted by Felya View Post
    Stop defending Trump:
    I obviously wasn't.

  15. #6055
    The Unstoppable Force Ghostpanther's Avatar
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    The polls are not looking good for Trump. Slipping across the spectrum. In both State and National levels. Even the betting odds are favoring Biden at the moment. The only positive trend for the GOP is the Senate races. Might be a chance for those who bet on political races, to make some money.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
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  16. #6056
    Quote Originally Posted by Ghostpanther View Post
    The polls are not looking good for Trump. Slipping across the spectrum. In both State and National levels. Even the betting odds are favoring Biden at the moment. The only positive trend for the GOP is the Senate races. Might be a chance for those who bet on political races, to make some money.
    Er Jeb, that's not how betting works. To make money you have to know something other people don't. You can't make money just because things are happening.

  17. #6057
    Quote Originally Posted by Ghostpanther View Post
    The polls are not looking good for Trump. Slipping across the spectrum. In both State and National levels. Even the betting odds are favoring Biden at the moment. The only positive trend for the GOP is the Senate races. Might be a chance for those who bet on political races, to make some money.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
    wait wtf? based on your link, what exactly makes you think there is a positive trend for the GOP in the senate? The polls look terrible for them outside Mississippi.

  18. #6058
    The Undying
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ghostpanther View Post
    The polls are not looking good for Trump. Slipping across the spectrum. In both State and National levels. Even the betting odds are favoring Biden at the moment. The only positive trend for the GOP is the Senate races. Might be a chance for those who bet on political races, to make some money.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
    Indeed, they are not looking so hot for Trump. And the Senate is looking bleak as well, from the perspective of the GOP keeping a majority:

    GOP incumbents seem a lot more vulnerable than previously thought.

    Montana - Bullock is up 7 points over incumbent Daines.
    Arizona - you covered above, but lol re McSally, potentially losing two senate seats (that has to be some kind of record)
    Colorado - again, you mentioned above.
    Kansas - open seat (Roberts "retired"), DNC candidate polling evenly against potential GOP candidates
    Iowa - Greenfield up 3 points against incumbent Ernst
    Kentucky - McGrath 1 point up over McConnell
    Georgia - you mentioned
    South Carolina - you mentioned
    North Carolina - Cunningham 2 points over incumbent Tillis
    Maine - Collins (incumbent) is behind to both Democratic nominee runoff candidates.

    (data from here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/maine/)

    Now 11 vulnerable seats, including Senate Majority leaders and never-going-to-die Lamar Alexander. Damn.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrod View Post
    Serious question: should Biden even bother to debate Trump? I would just be like, this guy sucks, I don't want to give him any more platform than he already has, let's just vote him out.

    Alternatively, Biden's gonna look weak in a debate because, let's face it, he is a very weak candidate.
    I don't think he should. Trump implodes himself already with daily Tweet-storms of racist conspiracy theory based bullshit. Why ruin a good thing?

  19. #6059
    Quote Originally Posted by cubby View Post
    Indeed, they are not looking so hot for Trump. And the Senate is looking bleak as well, from the perspective of the GOP keeping a majority:

    GOP incumbents seem a lot more vulnerable than previously thought.

    Montana - Bullock is up 7 points over incumbent Daines.
    Arizona - you covered above, but lol re McSally, potentially losing two senate seats (that has to be some kind of record)
    Colorado - again, you mentioned above.
    Kansas - open seat (Roberts "retired"), DNC candidate polling evenly against potential GOP candidates
    Iowa - Greenfield up 3 points against incumbent Ernst
    Kentucky - McGrath 1 point up over McConnell
    Georgia - you mentioned
    South Carolina - you mentioned
    North Carolina - Cunningham 2 points over incumbent Tillis
    Maine - Collins (incumbent) is behind to both Democratic nominee runoff candidates.

    (data from here: fivethirtyeight.com/polls/maine/
    Just to point out fivethirtyeight basically blew their credibility four years ago when they made a prediction based on the Nate's gut because they knew their own data was useless, after being 12 points out during the 2015, and then the 2017, UK elections.

    Let's just say Trump's made a fucking mess of everything after letting substantial numbers of his own voters die.
    Last edited by Transith; 2020-06-10 at 11:18 PM.

  20. #6060
    The Unstoppable Force Ghostpanther's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by beanman12345 View Post
    wait wtf? based on your link, what exactly makes you think there is a positive trend for the GOP in the senate? The polls look terrible for them outside Mississippi.
    Look at this link....https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...oval-6179.html

    Scroll down and you will see a box ( Battle for the White House RCP Poll Averages ) which shows the poll averages for different races. It will show things like Biden versus Trump and the generic races , etc. It shows the GOP leading the Democrats 49 -46 for the senate. The generic polls show the Democrats with a 8 point lead. And also the betting odds.
    Last edited by Ghostpanther; 2020-06-10 at 11:27 PM.
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