Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[cubby]

Nah, I think Orange Moron is doing a great job putting a nail in “we should have a businessman president.”

Lol, indeed. Looks like TexasLies did another dump-and-run.

In other news, which was already listed in this thread previously, but in which I want to rekindle, Trump's niece, Mary, is releasing a tell-all book. Normally anything Trump family related should be cast aside as lies from a family of grifters. However, and I'll admit up front this is very attractive so part of me wants this to be true, Mary is coming from Fred Trump, Jr, Donnie-Dumb-Dumb's brother, whom he fucked over both while alive and after he died of conditions related to alcoholism. Donnie Trump essentially financially abandoned Fred's family after Fred died, and there is very little love lost in that current relationship. Which might give a little more ethos to her as a source.

Also, Mary is claiming she is the source for the NYTimes' articles on Donnie's financial records and information. If she outs herself as the source, IIRC, the NYTimes can then confirm her as the source. What Mary is offering in the book:

-President Donald Trump's niece Mary L. Trump is publishing a book that will reveal herself to be the primary source of a New York Times investigation into the president's finances, The Daily Beast reported.

-Mary Trump will say she supplied The Times with confidential family tax documents, The Daily Beast said.

-The Times investigation later revealed that the president wasn't a self-made man but had his father bolster his failing businesses in the 1990s with hundreds of millions of dollars.

-Mary Trump is the daughter of Fred Trump Jr., the president's older brother who died in 1981 at the age of 42 from complications of alcoholism.

-People familiar with the book told The Daily Beast that Mary Trump would also accuse her uncle of playing a part in her father's death.
(I can't even do lists in this forum - I suck)

According to The Daily Beast, she will identify herself as the primary source for The New York Times' 2018 Pulitzer Prize-winning exposé on the president's finances by supplying her grandfather's tax returns and other confidential financial papers.

The Times investigation had revealed that the president wasn't a self-made man but had his father bolster his failing businesses in the 1990s with injections of more than $400 million in today's dollars.

Should be interesting - and don't worry about buying a copy, many many others will get advanced copies and vet it for us. If it's legit, or seems so, then we can support her cause.

[Shadowferal]

It does not - but what are the numbers being compared to? Where does the "less [than]" come from?

Posted the following earlier:

US voter registration plummets during coronavirus pandemic, challenging both parties

The registration of new voters dropped dramatically in the USA amid the coronavirus pandemic, challenging efforts of both major political parties to enlist supporters in battleground states before the 2020 election.

The number of new voters registered across 11 states in April 2020 decreased by 70% compared with April 2016, according to a report from the nonpartisan Center for Election Innovation & Research released Thursday.

------

The worst thing about this is that it's debatable as to who benefits.
Other than McConnell and Graham.

[kaelleria]

First forecast of the general election is up...
https://jhkforecasts.com/

Not sure on the accuracy from this person as he seems to be a college student.

[cubby]

Posted the following earlier:

Ah, right - thanks for the repost - I knew I'd seen it earlier.

Interesting, and potentially not good for the Democrats. Even taking into account the height of COVID-19 social distancing, down 70% is bad. Hopefully it's just because of COVID-19 and not anything else, not that that helps the issue much.

- - - Updated - - -

We're seeing an independent confirmation of COVID-19 uptick in several states, and at least two Professional Sports organizations are considering extending their opening delay. At some point we'll see increased restrictions across the country, Machiavelli'ingly playing into Trump's GOP canceling/delaying/stifling the November election.

[Seiklis]

Ah, right - thanks for the repost - I knew I'd seen it earlier.

Interesting, and potentially not good for the Democrats. Even taking into account the height of COVID-19 social distancing, down 70% is bad. Hopefully it's just because of COVID-19 and not anything else, not that that helps the issue much.

- - - Updated - - -

We're seeing an independent confirmation of COVID-19 uptick in several states, and at least two Professional Sports organizations are considering extending their opening delay. At some point we'll see increased restrictions across the country, Machiavelli'ingly playing into Trump's GOP canceling/delaying/stifling the November election.

Was down due to COVID

Then the protests started
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/05/geor...roups-say.html

[Zan15]

You actually look at that poll of 835 people? It doesn't actually say how many people identify with which party, just percentages of who they vote for. It's literally trash. I just looked at the 40 poll average, where the first a yougov poll had 36% democrat 27% Republican....not biased at all

.

Oh look another poll. This time by Rasmussen.
And looky…. 35/37% republican/democrat

14 point Biden lead....

I wonder what your excuse will be this time.
https://justthenews.com/sites/defaul...ethodology.pdf

https://justthenews.com/politics-pol...leads-14-among


@Ghostpanther I wonder where you've been? We used to get poll links all the time from you. Hello?

[codelance]

Oh look another poll. This time by Rasmussen.
And looky…. 35/37% republican/democrat

14 point Biden lead....

I wonder what your excuse will be this time.

You sound like you are jacking off to it or something. A poll is a probabilistic model of something. It is supposed to be impartial and objective. You aren't supposed to cheerlead for it.

The objective truth-and it doesn't whether you are a Trump supporter, a Biden supporter, or a decent human being that doesn't support any flavor of rapist, is that a poll this far out has very little bearing on the actual result. Biden is 1.88 in the betting, and Trump is 2.4, that's a significant improvement for Biden but a relatively small one.

[codelance]

Oh look another poll. This time by Rasmussen.
And looky…. 35/37% republican/democrat

14 point Biden lead....

I wonder what your excuse will be this time.

You sound like you are jacking off to it or something. A poll is a probabilistic model of something. It is supposed to be impartial and objective. You aren't supposed to cheerlead for it.

The objective truth-and it doesn't whether you are a Trump supporter, a Biden supporter, or a decent human being that doesn't support any flavor of rapist, is that a poll this far out has very little bearing on the actual result. Biden is 1.88 in the betting, and Trump is 2.4, that's a significant improvement for Biden but a relatively small one.

[Thepersona]

You sound like you are jacking off to it or something. A poll is a probabilistic model of something. It is supposed to be impartial and objective. You aren't supposed to cheerlead for it.

The objective truth-and it doesn't whether you are a Trump supporter, a Biden supporter, or a decent human being that doesn't support any flavor of rapist, is that a poll this far out has very little bearing on the actual result. Biden is 1.88 in the betting, and Trump is 2.4, that's a significant improvement for Biden but a relatively small one.

Do you know how statistics work?
Becuase if you know that, you would place much more weight on the polls than on a fucking betting site.

[Antiganon]

Worth noting that the poll in question is by Rasmussen, a pollster whose methods skew HARD for GOP, due to primarily calling people on landline phones. They are almost invariably pro-Trump.

[Elegiac]

Worth noting that the poll in question is by Rasmussen, a pollster whose methods skew HARD for GOP, due to primarily calling people on landline phones. They are almost invariably pro-Trump.

Calling a landline telephone in 2020 should be punishable by gulag, to be entirely honest.

[Zan15]

Worth noting that the poll in question is by Rasmussen, a pollster whose methods skew HARD for GOP, due to primarily calling people on landline phones. They are almost invariably pro-Trump.

well it was adjusted so at least they are semi trying....right?

[Fahrenheit]

@Ghostpanther I wonder where you've been? We used to get poll links all the time from you. Hello?

I think rats are abandoning the ship. This time next year you'll be hard pressed to find a Trump voter.

[SirBeef]

I think rats are abandoning the ship. This time next year you'll be hard pressed to find a Trump voter.

No, hes too busy hiding in gen OT and the gaming sections. But yeah it is telling that the conservatives are frauds that are bad faith actors and only show up to spread disinformation and run when confronted with facts.

More reason to put them on ignore and to stop engaging with them and that goes for the fucking mods who love giving validation to these types as if they can get them to understand and change minds.

[Shadowferal]

I'd take polling with a great deal of skepticism.
Especially in light of the fading voter registrations.

If I recall only a few people called it here correctly back in 2016 when everyone else believed Clinton would win handily.
And the polls...were just as wrong.

[Lanrefni]

Calling a landline telephone in 2020 should be punishable by gulag, to be entirely honest.

I hate when poll takers call my land line,the Caller ID is invariably bullshit.
And since it's multiple miles and two small mountains to the nearest cell tower,not having a land line isn't an option. :/

[Edge-]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...ss-loan-320625

At least four members of Congress have reaped benefits in some way from the half-trillion-dollar small-business loan program they helped create.

And no one knows how many more there could be.

It’s a bipartisan group of lawmakers who have acknowledged close ties to companies that have received loans from the program — businesses that are either run by their families or employ their spouse as a senior executive.

Republicans on the list include Rep. Roger Williams of Texas, a wealthy businessman who owns auto dealerships, body shops and car washes, and Rep. Vicky Hartzler of Missouri, whose family owns multiple farms and equipment suppliers across the Midwest. The Democrats count Rep. Susie Lee of Nevada, whose husband is CEO of a regional casino developer, and Rep. Debbie Mucarsel Powell of Florida, whose husband is an executive at a restaurant chain that has since returned the loan.

This is why elections matter. Republicans are doing everything they can to make this as opaque as possible and prevent taxpayers from knowing what businesses their money is going towards. Democrats, even though some may be recipient, are at least pushing for transparency on this so that people can know if their Reps/Senators are benefitting from their own legislation like this.

[cubby]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...ss-loan-320625

At least four members of Congress have reaped benefits in some way from the half-trillion-dollar small-business loan program they helped create.

And no one knows how many more there could be.

It’s a bipartisan group of lawmakers who have acknowledged close ties to companies that have received loans from the program — businesses that are either run by their families or employ their spouse as a senior executive.

Republicans on the list include Rep. Roger Williams of Texas, a wealthy businessman who owns auto dealerships, body shops and car washes, and Rep. Vicky Hartzler of Missouri, whose family owns multiple farms and equipment suppliers across the Midwest. The Democrats count Rep. Susie Lee of Nevada, whose husband is CEO of a regional casino developer, and Rep. Debbie Mucarsel Powell of Florida, whose husband is an executive at a restaurant chain that has since returned the loan.

This is why elections matter. Republicans are doing everything they can to make this as opaque as possible and prevent taxpayers from knowing what businesses their money is going towards. Democrats, even though some may be recipient, are at least pushing for transparency on this so that people can know if their Reps/Senators are benefitting from their own legislation like this.

Trump's golf course got $1,000,000 from the relief package. On top of the $150,000,000 he's earned from golf trips. It's a grifter's paradise, and the GOP's true colors are shining through.

[Edge-]

Trump's golf course got $1,000,000 from the relief package. On top of the $150,000,000 he's earned from golf trips. It's a grifter's paradise, and the GOP's true colors are shining through.

His golf course benefitted from the Scottish bailout, not the US one - https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...-1m-tax-rebate

So still highly questionable that a foreign country is giving relief to a business owned by POTUS (does this open him to blackmail? Because this sounds like the kinda thing that would get your security clearance yanked to me), but not US taxpayer dollars.

We're just paying for his extensive golfing habit.

[Thepersona]

I'd take polling with a great deal of skepticism.
Especially in light of the fading voter registrations.

If I recall only a few people called it here correctly back in 2016 when everyone else believed Clinton would win handily.
And the polls...were just as wrong.

Clinton won in 2016, at least the popular vote, by 3M votes. She lost because people in 3 states dis not bother to vote.