Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[jonnysensible]

Fox News moves Texas into the "Toss-up" category, with their latest poll showing Biden ahead for the first time, with a 1 point lead.

Here is the link to the actual poll results, because the news articles on it are always incomplete.

Now I have consistently advised against taking polls too seriously, and that holds true here too, Texas will still probably go for Trump, but there are some very encouraging facts here.

For one, both of the other Republicans asked about are actually running ahead of the President. Greg Abbot's approval is 13% higher than Trump's, and Cornyn is polling a couple points about Trump, but still under 50%. Now this is actually something useful and relevant for right now. When the GOP sees the top of the ticket is dragging down their chances, rather than riding the boost, that dramatically changes the dynamic of control. Trump is going to have a lot harder time controlling Senators that are polling ahead of him.

Something else I would like you to notice about this poll. Certain Trump supporters on this forum have complained about the percentage of party affiliation for respondents "They asked more democrats, so of course Trump is losing". Fundamentally this is because they do not understand how polling works, political affiliation is a screening criteria, and they ask a percentage based on the ratio of the state. Feast your eyes on the Texas breakdown:


Yep, they asked significantly more Republicans than Democrats, and Trump is still losing.

I don't think Biden will win Texas, but he CAN win Texas if the Trump campaign doesn't get things turned around soon. They are going to be forced to throw resources into Texas to stop this, because there is no path to the White House without Texas. Period. The math doesn't work without Texas being red. Trump is not helping his case there either, this could get a lot worse for him there.

Betos people have signed up 380,000 people who have moved to Texas in recent years, think hes got 2000 people going at voter registration day and night. Big numbers man.

[shimerra]

if we are referring to what i think we are referring around here its more of the fact that clinton is hated around here simply because she is the wife of a former president who screwed over A LOT OF PEOPLE when he signed the nafta treaty and a SHITTON of them proceeded to lose their jobs shortly after. they directly blame him and anyone connected to him for it. the fact that she ignored wisconsin just sealed her fate in 2016.

Literally every single reputable economist has NAFTA as a huge net gain for all countries. Congratulations on being suckered by the man who was forced to shut down his fraudulent University and thinks if only we can get UV Rays inside us we can stop covid19.

The fact that people where you are are particularly suspectable to buying into horseshit was a bigger problem.

He also gutted TPP but let me explain TPP in a way a trump voter could maybe get it. TPP was like America going to China's neighborhood and saying "hey everyone let's play D&D and the USA will be DM. Oh by the way china you can go fuck off and play with North Korea". Sure it wasn't perfect and we didn't like every rule but it would've created a huge trade network and boosted relationships worth hundreds of billions boosting the USA econmic power and soft power while checking China's power. People like those in your area not understanding global politics or economics went r3eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee America first and based in fee fees decalared it bad and Trump played on that.

No amount of facts or explaining was going to correct what was an emotional reaction/pandering to bullshit isolationist sentiment.

[beanman12345]

How would he end it if the Dems control the house? How would he even legally end it ?

one week later...

Don't worry, nobody is gonna call you a pawn, for arguing Trump wasn't gonna do something... he very blatantly obviously was gonna do.

[ati87]

Could probably put this in the Trump thread, but probably better served here:

The man isn't wrong.

The video in the tweet is a bit longer than what is quoted and touches on healthcare.

The mistake Trump and co have been making since March.
''If people just go to work the economical fallout will be minimum''
Ignoring the fact that you can't have an recovery if a single person who becomes sick can force the entire company to shut down again.

[Thelxi]

Biden was far from my pick for nominee, but I have to say that seeing him pull so damn far ahead in the polls despite doing very little campaign-wis and then seeing how even Trump's most hardcore supporters struggle to drum up enthusiasm for Trump's attempted attacks on him, has made me appreciate Biden in a way I had not really imagined before. If the nominee had been Warren (my first choice by a mile), things would probably not be looking this good right now.

Of course the election isn't being held tomorrow and so much can and will happen between now and then, but I can't help but give Biden some credit for this situation, and also the people that kept advocating for him in the face of strong resistance during the primaries. This shows me that I'm not always right and there is merit to other opinions not just being shared but prevailing.

Much of it probably is him being male and white, but I think that he also keeps saying just the right thing at the right time. Other candidates were male, white and even old too. He's far more successful at being "anti-Trump" than I had imagined, for now at least. Maybe the glass of water was exactly what we needed to run against him.

I also think that the "dementia" campaign against him which was eagerly picked up and propagated by many on both sides is working in his favor, which I did predict and will still die on that hill. Kinda like how the immediate slander campaign against AOC completely backfired on conservative media and instead created a superstar/monster who might even be president one day.

I was reading about the power of pictures in politics the other day, and I think this is a great one:

[zorkuus]

And Trump still dares to say he's the guy protecting millions with pre-existing conditions and so on....

He says a lot of things. All of them lies. EVERY. SINGLE. ONE.
If he ever says he's doing this all for his own self-interests, I'll believe him that time.

[Felya]

Trump won’t follow NJ quarantine, so he can go play golf at his golf resort this weekend:

Trump won't follow New Jersey quarantine mandate during upcoming trip
https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/24/polit...ine/index.html

Basically, using an argument that he is not a civilian, as if playing golf is in public’s interest.

- - - Updated - - -

The last few polls I've seen (some of which posted on this forum) actually painted a different picture, not for election results or leads of course, but they seemed to indicate that the overall enthusiasm for Biden among Biden voters polls at a very low 25-30%, while the enthusiasm for Trump among Trump voters polled at about 75-80%. (Which is about the same enthusiasm Obama voters had for Obama).

I mean... I'm not sure how I'm supposed to interpret the idea that some lackluster candidate is going to win the elections with almost no enthusiasm of the people who feel like they're forced to vote for him. It does not paint a good picture for Biden at least... Voter behavior indicates he is merely the lesser of two evils at the moment.

Biden probably would lose the elections in a landslide against any other Republican candidate...
Which might not be good news for 2024 ...

It’s hard for Biden supporters to be enthusiastic during a pandemic and protests all over the country. It’s much easier to be enthusiastic when there is some silly flu going around and Trump is ready to send the military to stop any of the rioting scum bags.

[Omega10]

The last few polls I've seen (some of which posted on this forum) actually painted a different picture, not for election results or leads of course, but they seemed to indicate that the overall enthusiasm for Biden among Biden voters polls at a very low 25-30%, while the enthusiasm for Trump among Trump voters polled at about 75-80%. (Which is about the same enthusiasm Obama voters had for Obama).

I mean... I'm not sure how I'm supposed to interpret the idea that some lackluster candidate is going to win the elections with almost no enthusiasm of the people who feel like they're forced to vote for him. It does not paint a good picture for Biden at least... Voter behavior indicates he is merely the lesser of two evils at the moment.

Biden probably would lose the elections in a landslide against any other Republican candidate...
Which might not be good news for 2024 ...

Please hold your criticism of Biden until after the election. We really need for Trump and the republican party to lose in a humiliating landslide.

If republicans put up another candidate instead of Trump at their convention - something that is not a zero percent chance - then we can revisit this line of reasoning. As it stands now, Trump is the republican nominee, and every effort must be taken to make sure he loses in the biggest bestest way possible.

Haven't you heard the classic Christmas song "I'm .... dreaming of a ... BLUE ... TEXAS"

[Edge-]

The last few polls I've seen (some of which posted on this forum) actually painted a different picture, not for election results or leads of course, but they seemed to indicate that the overall enthusiasm for Biden among Biden voters polls at a very low 25-30%, while the enthusiasm for Trump among Trump voters polled at about 75-80%. (Which is about the same enthusiasm Obama voters had for Obama).

Ironically mirroring the sentiment at this point in 2016, though with the roles of each party reversed.

Excitement to vote for someone is less of a motivation than fear driving people to vote against someone.

I mean... I'm not sure how I'm supposed to interpret the idea that some lackluster candidate is going to win the elections with almost no enthusiasm of the people who feel like they're forced to vote for him. It does not paint a good picture for Biden at least... Voter behavior indicates he is merely the lesser of two evils at the moment.

While many moderates like him, liberals and non-suicidal progressives seem to understand this and have no problems voting for the "lesser of two evils" in the short term.

Biden probably would lose the elections in a landslide against any other Republican candidate...
Which might not be good news for 2024 ...

I agree! If we can get back to "normal" Republicans, I wouldn't be too mad. And I wouldn't want Biden to run again in 2024 right now, I don't even think he'd still be in office by then if he wins, so I have no problems with Democratic voters picking someone else for the 2024 election.

Biden is the tourniquet to stop America from bleeding out due to a severed artery. It's not the best way to fix it, but it's the most immediate treatment while a longer term solution can be created (voters pick someone more people like).

[beanman12345]

Ironically mirroring the sentiment at this point in 2016, though with the roles of each party reversed.

Excitement to vote for someone is less of a motivation than fear driving people to vote against someone.



While many moderates like him, liberals and non-suicidal progressives seem to understand this and have no problems voting for the "lesser of two evils" in the short term.



I agree! If we can get back to "normal" Republicans, I wouldn't be too mad. And I wouldn't want Biden to run again in 2024 right now, I don't even think he'd still be in office by then if he wins, so I have no problems with Democratic voters picking someone else for the 2024 election.

Biden is the tourniquet to stop America from bleeding out due to a severed artery. It's not the best way to fix it, but it's the most immediate treatment while a longer term solution can be created (voters pick someone more people like).

Not just fear, but anger. And there is a lot of that across the US right now. A combo of those will drive the young voters out to vote. And older voters have been pragmatic about this election from the start. As @cubby keeps saying, this is a referendum election.

[Machismo]

Please hold your criticism of Biden until after the election. We really need for Trump and the republican party to lose in a humiliating landslide.

If republicans put up another candidate instead of Trump at their convention - something that is not a zero percent chance - then we can revisit this line of reasoning. As it stands now, Trump is the republican nominee, and every effort must be taken to make sure he loses in the biggest bestest way possible.

Haven't you heard the classic Christmas song "I'm .... dreaming of a ... BLUE ... TEXAS"

There's one problem, he actually wants Trump to win.

[Edge-]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fa...ant-2020-06-26

Fitting for this thread. Facebook is revising their ad policies and not excepting politicians from their rules and will hide/block hateful content or content that could harm voting.

And all it took was advertisers to start leaving the platform and hurt the bottom line.

Gonna be interesting to see how this impacts the campaigns across the board for the coming election.

[Zan15]

And Trump still dares to say he's the guy protecting millions with pre-existing conditions and so on....

Well they will still have pre-existing protection, kind of....in a few states that have state level laws, and if you are a commercial product (which the vast majority ARE NOT) and not self funded (which the vast majority are)

Just in case you don't know what that jargon means, it means someone like FEDEX or APPLE and almost all large corporations since they are self funded do not for the most part have to follow state laws through their protections under federal ERISA laws.
So they don't have to follow pre-existing rules if ACA is abolished.

Small to medium businesses make up the lion share of "commercial" business that is not self funded. They would still have to follow it if there is a state regulation on pre-existing.


Sure sounds very Republican to me, big corporate gift.


maybe that small bucket is worth a few million out of the 330 million people.
of course then he would be taking credit for what the states are protecting, not him. Nothing new for Trump.


I really wish the SCoTUS would not have wimped out on this. They pushed it forward so that if they put the kibosh on it, the republicans will blame the democrats for it when they take control of the WH.

- - - Updated - - -

Trump won’t follow NJ quarantine, so he can go play golf at his golf resort this weekend:

Trump won't follow New Jersey quarantine mandate during upcoming trip
https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/24/polit...ine/index.html

Basically, using an argument that he is not a civilian, as if playing golf is in public’s interest.

.

but but states rights....

remember that big lie the republicans and trump used to push....

[DarkTZeratul]

I really wish the SCoTUS would not have wimped out on this. They pushed it forward so that if they put the kibosh on it, the republicans will blame the democrats for it when they take control of the WH.

On the other hand, that also gives President Biden an extremely easy opportunity to get out of it. The essential argument in the case is that a penalty of $0 is unconstitutional, so all he'd have to do is restore the previous penalty. He could do that day one.

[Zan15]

On the other hand, that also gives President Biden an extremely easy opportunity to get out of it. The essential argument in the case is that a penalty of $0 is unconstitutional, so all he'd have to do is restore the previous penalty. He could do that day one.

Ya but if they shut it down how long would it take to start it back up. Guess it would depend how fast they close the door.

I guess that is also why a lot of legal folks said the argument and legal submission was a cluster fuck mess because it can still be considered legally a penalty even if the amount is $0.

ACA always had a way out of paying the penalty but that didn't invalidate the ACA.

[Rasulis]

I don't think Trump is even trying anymore. Everything that he is doing from trying to kill ACA & DACA, and vetoing Congress bipartisan legislation that would have overturned new regulations from the Education Department to restrict access to federal student loan forgiveness are highly unpopular with the voters.

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Ya but if they shut it down how long would it take to start it back up. Guess it would depend how fast they close the door.

I guess that is also why a lot of legal folks said the argument and legal submission was a cluster fuck mess because it can still be considered legally a penalty even if the amount is $0.

ACA always had a way out of paying the penalty but that didn't invalidate the ACA.

I think the Supreme Court already said they are not going to take up the case till next session.

[Drutt]

Saw the best yard sign on the way home from work yesterday.

[PACOX]

I don't think Trump is even trying anymore. Everything that he is doing from trying to kill ACA & DACA, and vetoing Congress bipartisan legislation that would have overturned new regulations from the Education Department to restrict access to federal student loan forgiveness are highly unpopular with the voters.

- - - Updated - - -



I think the Supreme Court already said they are not going to take up the case till next session.

He is playing like he has a card up his sleeve.

For one, his strategy does not seem to win over any new people. It's like he wants to more anyone against him angry, anxious, stressed, scared. Meanwhile while he is tripling down on what his base wants to here, no matter how dumb or illogical it sounds. Trump did not get to the WH on logic and reason. We already know it's feels before real with MAGA country.

There's some analyst telling him that his strategy is working despite conventional thinking - which has actually worked in his favor in the past.

Have you seen the anti-mask Karen's out of Boca Raton? That's what Biden is up against.

[Zan15]

I don't think Trump is even trying anymore. Everything that he is doing from trying to kill ACA & DACA, and vetoing Congress bipartisan legislation that would have overturned new regulations from the Education Department to restrict access to federal student loan forgiveness are highly unpopular with the voters.

- - - Updated - - -



I think the Supreme Court already said they are not going to take up the case till next session.

which would still allow him to abolish it right before he leaves???
or god forbid.....

[DarkTZeratul]

Ya but if they shut it down how long would it take to start it back up. Guess it would depend how fast they close the door.

I guess that is also why a lot of legal folks said the argument and legal submission was a cluster fuck mess because it can still be considered legally a penalty even if the amount is $0.

ACA always had a way out of paying the penalty but that didn't invalidate the ACA.

I'm saying if Biden restores the penalty, then the argument is rendered null: if it's only unconstitutional by virtue of having a $0 penalty, then if the penalty is no longer $0 it's no longer unconstitutional.