1. #6721
    Merely a Setback Kaleredar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cubby View Post
    It's going to be VERY tough. Despite our both our desire and our earning of being downright gleeful if/when Trumps hens come home to roost, when it comes to family members, the big question is if you want to salvage your relationship with them. If you, as I do, then we're going to have to have a LOT of patience - think parent-to-a-toddler level - with these people. They are going to need an "out" as well, something they can blame for their continued support. Now, the good news is a lot of these family members are older people, and their reason for Trump support comes from their lack of news diversity.

    But it's going to be hard.

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    The thing is, and I truly hate to say this, but if we can salvage these types of people, if Biden wins and we can at the same time salvage our country, we should. Because if we don't try to bring them back into the fold, some other fucking nut bag will grab them, and they will be lost again - possibly forever. While c'est la vie might be your initial reaction, as would mine, on the long term goals we might want to try to keep them, if possible.

    But as your cousins acts, and others parrot, some might be truly lost.
    Frankly, I never discuss politics with my family members. Ever.

    I look forward to a sort of "return to normalcy" following a Trump defeat. The republicans in power will drop him like a hot potato the second he loses reelection and rapidly try and distance themselves from him or having ever supported him in an attempt to save their own skins. That will probably drag the majority of his supporters away from him as well; they support the republican party, mistakenly believing that the republican party still actually stands for something other than its own enrichment, not Trump himself. The majority of those thinking Trump actually supported whatever it is they imagined the republican party stood for will likely be able to reflect on his litany of failures, especially with the republicans in power giving them a way to face-save out of having ever truly supported Trump. Trump's most die-hard of sycophants will just rage into the darkness, and we can just ignore them.

    I'm hoping that the democrats in power, following Trump's defeat, go on a scorched-earth crusade through the role call of Trump's white house, indicting and arresting as necessary to uphold the laws so flagrantly broken with so much ferocity so as to make any further snake oil salesmen seriously reconsider attempting the same thing Trump did.
    “Do not lose time on daily trivialities. Do not dwell on petty detail. For all of these things melt away and drift apart within the obscure traffic of time. Live well and live broadly. You are alive and living now. Now is the envy of all of the dead.” ~ Emily3, World of Tomorrow
    Quote Originally Posted by Wells View Post
    Kaleredar is right...
    Words to live by.

  2. #6722
    Banned cubby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kaleredar View Post
    I'm hoping that the democrats in power, following Trump's defeat, go on a scorched-earth crusade through the role call of Trump's white house, indicting and arresting as necessary to uphold the laws so flagrantly broken with so much ferocity so as to make any further snake oil salesmen seriously reconsider attempting the same thing Trump did.
    I hope they do as well. Along with similar intentions on a legislative front. You and I have discuss at length what should be passed in the First 100 Days:

    Truth and Reconciliation Committee

    D.C. Statehood
    Puerto Rico Statehood
    Election Security
    Medicaid Expansion

    What else was on that list? There was almost a dozen total IIRC.

  3. #6723
    Quote Originally Posted by Omega10 View Post
    He is currently up by double digits, with leads in all of the swing states, along with being even or slightly ahead in states such as Georgia and Texas. Right now the odds are definitely in his favor.

    It is important to remind people that this election is no shoo-in however.


    Polls and numbers mean nothing.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Benggaul View Post

    Lil Thera's quips are beyond adorable, as he desperately looks for any kind of salvation while the country crumbles around him due to the void of leadership in the White House.
    i'm not a trump or biden supporter. putting the power of nuclear weapons, deranged leaders and countries, and the world's finest military into the hands of a man with severe dementia is no better than placing it into the hands of a narcissist, racist, power hungry and dictator like younger old man. This country is screwed either way. And its people's fault for not voting for a strong candidate like Yang, Bernie or Gillibrand.

    Trump has lost lots of support but he still isn't wavering no less than Obama did during his 2nd term run. Florida still remains red. Pennsylvania could go anywhere again as usual, specifically red like last time. Georgia is getting redder.


    Look at this map. 287 for Biden. We're falling for the SAME tricks again.

    - - - Updated - - -


    If anything THIS will be the map.
    Last edited by TheramoreIsTheBomb; 2020-07-06 at 05:45 AM.
    "You know you that bitch when you cause all this conversation."

  4. #6724
    You're making conclusions like someone who checks in on this thread like once a month to drop bombs and spout random nonsense. In the electoral map you MADE UP, Biden is currently polling ahead in Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Texas/Arizona and even the North Carolina are closing in on fucking toss-ups.

    Obviously those aren't set in stone, but Trump basically has to run the table in all these states to win.

  5. #6725
    Merely a Setback Kaleredar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheramoreIsTheBomb View Post


    Polls and numbers mean nothing.

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    i'm not a trump or biden supporter. putting the power of nuclear weapons, deranged leaders and countries, and the world's finest military into the hands of a man with severe dementia is no better than placing it into the hands of a narcissist, racist, power hungry and dictator like younger old man. This country is screwed either way. And its people's fault for not voting for a strong candidate like Yang, Bernie or Gillibrand.
    /yawn

    The candidates are who they are. Your pet policy issues obviously did not sway the majority of the Democratic Party; otherwise your candidates would have done better.

    And I’d rather have a president that occasionally flubs a line than a president who not only does that, but who has also worked to personally enrich himself through the office of the presidency, has gone out of his way to alienate americas allies and empower its enemies, and has shown a flagrant disregard for the law and whose continued presence as president undermines the legitimacy of every branch of government.

    But no, because Biden has mixed up some words, they’re “just the same,” right? Biden screws up an analogy in a speech, trump orders peaceful protestors to be tear gassed. Yep, just the same!

    The choice here is pretty fucking clear. This “both sides” nonsense is idiotic and tiresome, and only serves trump’s agenda. Trump wins through apathy. You’re attempting to seed that. You are directly aiding the goals of Donald Trump. Either you’re doing this intentionally or you’re too clueless to realize this. Either way, not a legitimate place to be arguing from.
    “Do not lose time on daily trivialities. Do not dwell on petty detail. For all of these things melt away and drift apart within the obscure traffic of time. Live well and live broadly. You are alive and living now. Now is the envy of all of the dead.” ~ Emily3, World of Tomorrow
    Quote Originally Posted by Wells View Post
    Kaleredar is right...
    Words to live by.

  6. #6726
    Scarab Lord downnola's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheramoreIsTheBomb View Post
    If anything THIS will be the map.
    Why do you think Biden would win PA but not Ohio, Michigan, or Wisconsin? I don't think Trump easily wins NC or Florida either. That map makes no sense.
    Populists (and "national socialists") look at the supposedly secret deals that run the world "behind the scenes". Child's play. Except that childishness is sinister in adults.
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  7. #6727
    The Undying Cthulhu 2020's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheramoreIsTheBomb View Post


    Polls and numbers mean nothing.
    "I got Ashes of A'lar on my first run of Tempest keep, therefor the Wowhead statistic that says it has a 1% chance to drop is WRONG."

    Do you even know how probability works?

    That's also not "polls", those are prediction analysts, people who pull numbers out of their ass based on trends and current polls and feels. That prediction analyst of 93% was also before Comey dropped the email bombshell that tanked Hillary's numbers 5 points across all states, so before that bombshell, she likely had a much higher chance to win.

    Most prediction analysts had Hillary in the 55-75% chance to win range. And even then, Trump winning with those numbers doesn't mean that polls and numbers are useless. It's like people see 93% chance to win, and think that 7% chance for Trump to win just doesn't exist to try and dismiss polling they are uncomfortable or just downright frightened of acknowledging.

    Biden is polling FAR ahead of Hillary and Trump's numbers are well below 2016's numbers. People are sick of him, and Republicans are experiencing turnout burnout. A lot of people who voted for Trump in 2016 aren't going to vote for Biden, but they will be staying home.
    “Terrible things are happening outside. Poor helpless people are being dragged out of their homes. Families are torn apart. Men, women, and children are separated. Children come home from school to find that their parents have disappeared.”
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  8. #6728
    Quote Originally Posted by TheramoreIsTheBomb View Post


    Polls and numbers mean nothing.
    But your picture is misleading, it says Hillary Clinton has a 93% chance of winning IF THE ELECTION WAS HELD TODAY JULY 27, 2016.

    To give it full context.

    "Renowned statistician Nate Silver gave Hillary Clinton a nearly 93% chance of winning the general election if it were held Friday, less than two weeks after the same projection showed Donald Trump with a roughly 55% chance of taking the presidency if ballots were cast in late July."

    In short you are dead wrong.

  9. #6729
    Quote Originally Posted by TheramoreIsTheBomb View Post


    Polls and numbers mean nothing.

    - - - Updated - - -



    i'm not a trump or biden supporter. putting the power of nuclear weapons, deranged leaders and countries, and the world's finest military into the hands of a man with severe dementia is no better than placing it into the hands of a narcissist, racist, power hungry and dictator like younger old man. This country is screwed either way. And its people's fault for not voting for a strong candidate like Yang, Bernie or Gillibrand.

    Trump has lost lots of support but he still isn't wavering no less than Obama did during his 2nd term run. Florida still remains red. Pennsylvania could go anywhere again as usual, specifically red like last time. Georgia is getting redder.


    Look at this map. 287 for Biden. We're falling for the SAME tricks again.

    - - - Updated - - -


    If anything THIS will be the map.
    But, everyone already knows you are a Trump supporter, s your "concern" means nothing.

  10. #6730
    Quote Originally Posted by TheramoreIsTheBomb View Post


    Polls and numbers mean nothing.

    - - - Updated - - -



    i'm not a trump or biden supporter. putting the power of nuclear weapons, deranged leaders and countries, and the world's finest military into the hands of a man with severe dementia is no better than placing it into the hands of a narcissist, racist, power hungry and dictator like younger old man. This country is screwed either way. And its people's fault for not voting for a strong candidate like Yang, Bernie or Gillibrand.

    Trump has lost lots of support but he still isn't wavering no less than Obama did during his 2nd term run. Florida still remains red. Pennsylvania could go anywhere again as usual, specifically red like last time. Georgia is getting redder.


    Look at this map. 287 for Biden. We're falling for the SAME tricks again.

    - - - Updated - - -


    If anything THIS will be the map.
    Polls mean exactly what the show. A snapshot of a particular moment in time. They always have and always will. They have never meant a thing else despite what you and others may think. The 93-7 is a probability. With Trump had a 7$ chance of winning. Trump winning does not negate the 93-7 probability of Clinton winning, nor did Trumps win invalidate the polls in those districts he won which were within the margin of error.

    There is a huge difference in the polling today than back in 2016. Trump is well outside the margin of error in pretty much ever demographic nationwide and well out of the margin of error in swing states. But all this means is at the time of the pollings there is tremendous support for Biden over Trump. We all know things can change. But the numbers mean something.

  11. #6731
    Legendary! Thekri's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Machismo View Post
    But, everyone already knows you are a Trump supporter, s your "concern" means nothing.
    Lets humor Theo here. Lets pretend the second map is actually true, and work our ass off to improve it.

    Trumpers are going to deflect and dodge, but ultimately the map doesn't matter until November, and the second map is possible (No idea why PA would go blue and Michigan go red though). Victory laps in July aren't helpful. We want it to look like the top map, but it is going to take work to make that happen.

  12. #6732
    Pa has polled fairly consistent in favor of Biden for months now.

    Hmf...the way things look for the Senate, I'd say dems will gain at least two seats.
    “But this isn’t the end. I promise you, this is not the end, and we have to regroup and we have to continue to fight and continue to work day in and day out to create the better society for our children, for this world, for this country, that we know is possible.” ~~Jon Stewart

  13. #6733
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    Gallup now has Trump polling at 38%. So he dropped 11 points in less than 2 months.

    He's revving up his base and alienating everyone else.

    I'm wondering if it can go even lower. I mean 38% sound about right for representing the GOP death cultists that vote <R> no matter what. But in 2 months, when schools won open .... that's a lot of angry parents.
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  14. #6734
    Quote Originally Posted by Milchshake View Post
    I'm wondering if it can go even lower. I mean 38% sound about right for representing the GOP death cultists that vote <R> no matter what. But in 2 months, when schools won open .... that's a lot of angry parents.
    Schools won't open? That would be quite the surprise.
    “But this isn’t the end. I promise you, this is not the end, and we have to regroup and we have to continue to fight and continue to work day in and day out to create the better society for our children, for this world, for this country, that we know is possible.” ~~Jon Stewart

  15. #6735
    Quote Originally Posted by Milchshake View Post
    I'm wondering if it can go even lower. I mean 38% sound about right for representing the GOP death cultists that vote <R> no matter what. But in 2 months, when schools won open .... that's a lot of angry parents.
    I'm not convinced schools won't open. In fact I'm almost certain they will and primarily in areas that are experiencing outbreaks currently, because the denial is real.

  16. #6736
    Legendary! Thekri's Avatar
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    I was doing some browsing through 538, looking at Senate Races, and I was really surprised how huge the polling ranges for a lot of these races are. Kentucky for instance, has everything from McGrath +4 to McConnell +20. The +20 was such a bizzare outlier, that I opened the poll and skimmed through it. The poll was from "Data for Progress" with a C rating, and well:

    Party ID:
    Democrat 20%
    Republican 43%
    Independent 37%

    So yeah, that explains that. Amusingly, even in the poll it had 11% of democrats voting for McConnell, which seems a bit... unlikely. Amazing how conservative polls do exactly what they accuse legitimate polls of doing, that is some staggering skewing of the data. Makes me wonder if they conducted the poll at a Trump rally, or just asked everyone not wearing a mask at the grocery store.

    For the record, here is the actual registered voter breakdown in Kentucky, which responsible polls will try to match (With offsets for expected voters).

    Democrats 49.9%
    Republican 41%
    Third party and other 9.1%

  17. #6737
    Quote Originally Posted by Thekri View Post
    Lets humor Theo here. Lets pretend the second map is actually true, and work our ass off to improve it.

    Trumpers are going to deflect and dodge, but ultimately the map doesn't matter until November, and the second map is possible (No idea why PA would go blue and Michigan go red though). Victory laps in July aren't helpful. We want it to look like the top map, but it is going to take work to make that happen.
    I second this.

    Victory laps in July ARE kind of fun though I'm glad that Trump is currently in the 30s now and dropping.

    But on a serious note, Hillary really did lose the electoral college vote in 2016. We must stay vigilant and never let up and make the polls as pro-Biden and anti-Trump as we can possibly make them.

    The role of Theramoreisthebomb, and others like him, is to increase the vigilance of the Biden camp, and to increase the Biden vote as much as we can. The more he speaks, the larger the Biden win, and more importantly the less likely Trump finds a way to remain in office.

  18. #6738
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vegas82 View Post
    It's not so much that schools won't open, it's that when they do it won't be business as usual. Especially for schools that have large populations. I know of one plan that would have a rotating schedule of students only going to the physical school 1 day a week to allow for social distancing.
    I agree, some districts will try to open. But odds are, all these plans will collapse. HOw many teachers or bus drivers can you lose until the rotation collapses? Poor and rural areas will have even fewer options.

    I'm already signing my kids up for extended online programs. To supplement what few online hours the city will most likely provide. Other parents are sounding more and more pessimistic about the upcoming school year.



    There's also rumbles that covid will devastate quite a few colleges. Especially those that rely on out-state-tuition or the small boutique colleges. Why pay 40k a year for online learning? When a state school has online learning for a fraction of the cost.
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  19. #6739
    I Don't Work Here Endus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SirBeef View Post
    Polls mean exactly what the show. A snapshot of a particular moment in time. They always have and always will. They have never meant a thing else despite what you and others may think. The 93-7 is a probability. With Trump had a 7$ chance of winning. Trump winning does not negate the 93-7 probability of Clinton winning, nor did Trumps win invalidate the polls in those districts he won which were within the margin of error.

    There is a huge difference in the polling today than back in 2016. Trump is well outside the margin of error in pretty much ever demographic nationwide and well out of the margin of error in swing states. But all this means is at the time of the pollings there is tremendous support for Biden over Trump. We all know things can change. But the numbers mean something.
    People also like the cherry-pick the polls from weeks/months before November 8, despite all those polls being predicated on an "if the election were held today" premise.

    If you actually look at November 8 polling, it tells a wildly different story; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nation...ntial_election

    Most showed Clinton with a slight lead, of between 3-5% over Trump. She didn't walk into November 8 with an 85-point lead in the polls and magically lose anyway. That's just literally not what happened. It's revisionist history.


  20. #6740
    Legendary! Thekri's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Endus View Post
    People also like the cherry-pick the polls from weeks/months before November 8, despite all those polls being predicated on an "if the election were held today" premise.

    If you actually look at November 8 polling, it tells a wildly different story; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nation...ntial_election

    Most showed Clinton with a slight lead, of between 3-5% over Trump. She didn't walk into November 8 with an 85-point lead in the polls and magically lose anyway. That's just literally not what happened. It's revisionist history.
    Revisionist narratives like this frequently end up enshrined in history, if we yield this point. It is worth mentioning this repeatedly every time some pundit comes and tries to shove it down their throat. Trumpsters like pretending that 2016 was some sort of divine miracle that shows the worthiness of their cause, and speaks to some vast hidden uprising against the "establishment". But of course it was no such thing.

    The 2016 was consistently shown to be extremely close as we entered into that last week. Hillary enjoyed large leads throughout the summer, but those had evaporated by November. Trump emerged from the GOP primary as an extremely divisive figure, still widely loathed by large swathes of the party, especially the evangelicals wing. Trump was able to rally the base with extraordinary effect, winning the endorsement of key evengelicals, and painting his campaign as some sort of great moral crusade. The GOP convention in mid-July was a masterstroke of propaganda, cementing his message of anger and outrage, and tying it all to an image of Trump as some sort of heroic savior. It unified the party as the defeated canidates all kneeled to the victor. Hillary's campaign never found its footing. The democratic convention was cringeworthy coronation of the inevitable, and she continued to play it safe. Hillary couldn't bounce back from scandal like Trump could, and the FBI "Revalations" in the last few weeks had a major impact.

    Polls in the final days were almost universally within the margin of error of the actual results, Hillary did pull out a 2.1% victory in the popular vote, almost exactly where national polls had her. But the battleground states all went against her, usually by razor thin margins. Those states all had polls showing the races as toss-ups, and they were, they just fell on the Trump side of it.

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