Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[Shalcker]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...l-flynn-363743

Reminder, that Trump fired Flynn for lying to Mike Pence and others in his administration.

Imagine being such a spineless cuck.

I'm sure that if Trump fired everyone who ever lied to him he would have noone left working for him.

[Felya]

I'm sure that if Trump fired everyone who ever lied to him he would have noone left working for him.

Yeah, Trump has great skill at choosing people... a real class act...

[Rasulis]

Of interest, election day is 16 weeks from yesterday.

Meh. Nancy Pelosi has not bothered with debates for at least 20 years. All her opponents begged her to debate them. Her current opponent (a progressive Democratic candidate) actually did a mock debate using a glass of water in place of Pelosi. She just ignored them. That's confidence and dominance.

[Felya]

Meh. Nancy Pelosi has not bothered with debates for at least 20 years. All her opponents begged her to debate them. Her current opponent (a progressive Democratic candidate) actually did a mock debate using a glass of water in place of Pelosi. She just ignored them. That's confidence and dominance.

That’s a gamble... if he loses, he lost to a cup of water...

[Ghostpanther]

Lol!! Wth!, now he is back on the bid for President.....https://www.foxnews.com/entertainmen...ion-commission

And for those who do not wish to contribute to Fox News......

Kanye West filed a document with the Federal Election Commission on Thursday, seemingly confirming he is moving forward with his 2020 bid for president of the United States.

Fox News obtained the 43-year-old rapper's Statement of Candidacy document, which lists his party affiliation as "BDY," which stands for "Birthday Party." His committee's name is also listed on the document as "Kanye 2020."

The document was filed one day after a Statement of Organization was submitted to the FEC with West's name on it. A Statement of Organization is a political committee's registration form that authorizes it to raise and spend money. The Statement of Candidacy document is filed once an individual has triggered candidacy status, meaning West has raised more than $5,000 through campaign activity, an FEC spokesperson confirmed to Fox News.

[Felya]

Quinnipiac has flipped the polling on the economy from June. Biden is now at 50% versus Trump in low 40s. Trump’s approval of the economy, went from 52% in June, to low 40s now... that’s pretty unbelievable...

Trump’s approval rating on the economy tanks in new poll
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/15/trum...piac-poll.html

I think people are looking at Wallstreet and unemployment, to see something is off.

[Zan15]

Quinnipiac has flipped the polling on the economy from June. Biden is now at 50% versus Trump in low 40s. Trump’s approval of the economy, went from 52% in June, to low 40s now... that’s pretty unbelievable...

Trump’s approval rating on the economy tanks in new poll
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/15/trum...piac-poll.html

I think people are looking at Wallstreet and unemployment, to see something is off.

Have to remember that most people whom are invested in wallstreet are through their 401k/pension/IRA type.

30 million unemployed people do not have those payments going in anymore. They don't have their employer "match/contribution" anymore. Unemployment does not invest money in stocks for you....

So those amazing gains are worthless to all those people. They basically gained back what was lost since March....well about 75% of it.

[Masark]

Have to remember that most people whom are invested in wallstreet are through their 401k/pension/IRA type.

And furthermore, most people don't even have those.

[kaid]

Have to remember that most people whom are invested in wallstreet are through their 401k/pension/IRA type.

30 million unemployed people do not have those payments going in anymore. They don't have their employer "match/contribution" anymore. Unemployment does not invest money in stocks for you....

So those amazing gains are worthless to all those people. They basically gained back what was lost since March....well about 75% of it.

Looking at my 401k very dynamic stasis is kinda the best decscription. Since 2018 two major craters and then sharp rebounds to eak out a tiny big of gain on top of actual inputs. Life is going to get pretty interesting when gen x people start trying to retire and realize they won't ever be able to.

[Rasulis]

Heh! Trump in March had around $150M advantage in cash on hand over Biden. Hell the guy been campaigning since day one of his presidency. Down to 53M now ($242M vs. $295M cash on hand). Impressive fund raising by Biden.

[cubby]

Heh! Trump in March had around $150M advantage in cash on hand over Biden. Hell the guy been campaigning since day one of his presidency. Down to 53M now ($242M vs. $295M cash on hand). Impressive fund raising by Biden.

Very impressive.

And that Trump advantage is only going to dwindle as his insanity [somehow] continues to grow. Did you see the loyalty checks being thrust on Cabinet members and staffers today?

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Just got done watching a video of Fauci's life, and his accomplishments - pretty sure if Biden wins Fauci will be our next Surgeon General.

[Rasulis]

Have to remember that most people whom are invested in wallstreet are through their 401k/pension/IRA type.

30 million unemployed people do not have those payments going in anymore. They don't have their employer "match/contribution" anymore. Unemployment does not invest money in stocks for you....

So those amazing gains are worthless to all those people. They basically gained back what was lost since March....well about 75% of it.

Even the people that benefit the most from his tax cut do not want him as president. They consider him an existential threat.

“THEY’RE SAYING, ‘WE’D LIKE TO SEE BIDEN CRUSH TRUMP’”: FOR SOME ON WALL STREET BEATING TRUMP IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN MONEY

Most of Wall Street, it seems, is happily preparing for a Joe Biden victory in November. “The majority of my friends on Wall Street would like to see Trump lose to Biden,” one very senior investment banker tells me. “They’re saying, ‘We’d like to see Biden crush Trump.’” And that is without knowing exactly what Biden and the 117th Congress—to be elected on November 3—will do about such important economic topics such as the corporate tax rate, the capital gains tax rate, or taxes on the wealthiest Americans. The consensus on Wall Street seems to be that a Biden presidency will mean an overhaul of the Trump 2018 tax law. That means higher tax rates for the very wealthy, for corporations—likely an increase in the tax rate to 28%, from 21%—and on capital gains.

At a virtual fundraiser on June 29 with Wall Street types, Biden said he’ll likely roll back much of Trump’s $2 trillion tax cut “and a lot of you may not like that.” Interestingly, in my conversations with Wall Street executives, bankers and traders, higher taxes seems to be a small price to pay to be rid of Donald Trump. “Wall Street’s not this amorphous, unified blob,” the senior Wall Street banker continues, “but the majority of people I talk to on Wall Street think it’s worth taking the hit to get Trump out of office. They view him as an existential threat.”

Robert Wolf, the former head of UBS in the Americas who now has his own advisory and investment firm, 32 Advisors, concurs. Wolf, who was once described as Barack Obama’s favorite investment banker, says Wall Street understands the numbers: the multi-trillion-dollar annual federal budget deficits and a national debt at $24 trillion. “The numbers don’t lie,” Wolf says. “Those managers who are best on Wall Street are preparing for possible changes in tax reform, are preparing for how best to look at infrastructure, are preparing for what we’ve seen under this administration of more nationalistic policy that hopefully will change. People prepare for change. They don’t necessarily institute the policies, but they start preparing for change, and the good Wall Street firms, they look at where they think 2021 can be, and they look at the changes where each administration could have, and they start planning for that.”

He says he’s convinced if the election were held today, Biden would win, big. The election is “predominantly a referendum on Donald Trump,” Wolf continues. “He’s at his lowest approval polls to date. If the election was today, I think that the Democratic Party would win the presidency, the Senate, and the House.” He says Wall Street, while not monolithic in its voting patterns, looks “at the volatility and the lies that come out of this White House, and my gut tells me that they’re exhausted from it. The old saying that people vote with their pocketbook, I’m not sure I agree with that. I think there’s more to people. I believe that people are much more substantive than just the pocketbook.” He says that what has been revealed by the COVID pandemic and the faltering economy is “income inequality, health inequality, and racial inequality,” and voters are going to be focused on the candidate that is best able to articulate solutions to these serious problems. He thinks Biden is the best qualified to address these issues. “Biden is going to focus on how we can grow, and how we can grow in a fair and just way,” Wolf says. “I think you’ll see the corporate rate go up. You’ll see the highest earners’ income tax rate go up. I think it’s expected. I don’t think any of this is unexpected…I think there will be clear-cut disagreements between what’s the best way to take our country into 2021. Certainly, my view is that the Biden campaign is going to be able to show why they have the best case and the best person to lead.”

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That’s a gamble... if he loses, he lost to a cup of water...

Lol. I think it has more to do with name recognition. The chances of anybody beating Nancy Pelosi, as long as she wants the seat, is pretty much non-existent. However, for a Democrat, the name recognition that he gets from running against Pelosi will be valuable when Nancy Pelosi retire in 2022. Like she said she would.

[Ghostpanther]

Thought this was interesting. I also think the great majority on here will dismiss it as garbage. And do not take it as my personal prediction of the outcome of the 2020 general election, because this model has been incorrect 2 times out of the last 26 elections.....https://www.newsweek.com/professor-w...20-win-1516609

Despite a number of poll numbers that predict Donald Trump will lose his reelection bid, one political scientist says the president has a good chance of winning a second term.

Helmut Norpoth, a political science professor at Stony Brook University--who forecasted Trump's 2016 win eight months ahead of the election and has accurately predicted 25 out of 27 elections--said on Fox News' The Ingraham Angle that Trump's reelection chances are above 90 percent.

"The key to the November election is the primaries," Norpoth said, adding Trump won Republican primaries quite easily while presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden had difficulty winning delegates. "On balance, a stronger performance in primaries gives Donald Trump the edge in November."

Norpoth cited Biden's fourth-place finish in the Iowa caucus and his fifth-place finish in the New Hampshire primary as among his reasons for his forecast.

"The terrain of presidential contests is littered with nominees who saw a poll lead in the spring turn to dust in the fall," Norpoth told Mediaite. "The list is long and discouraging for early front runners. Beginning with Thomas Dewey in 1948, it spans such notables as Richard Nixon in 1960, Jimmy Carter in 1980, Michael Dukakis in 1988, George H.W. Bush in 1992, and John Kerry in 2004, to cite just the most spectacular cases."

In the weeks leading up to the 2016 electron, Trump trailed former Democratic presidential nominee Hilary Clinton in nearly every poll and still won the presidency

[kaelleria]

Thought this was interesting. I also think the great majority on here will dismiss it as garbage. And do not take it as my personal prediction of the outcome of the 2020 general election, because this model has been incorrect 2 times out of the last 26 elections.....https://www.newsweek.com/professor-w...20-win-1516609

Despite a number of poll numbers that predict Donald Trump will lose his reelection bid, one political scientist says the president has a good chance of winning a second term.

Helmut Norpoth, a political science professor at Stony Brook University--who forecasted Trump's 2016 win eight months ahead of the election and has accurately predicted 25 out of 27 elections--said on Fox News' The Ingraham Angle that Trump's reelection chances are above 90 percent.

"The key to the November election is the primaries," Norpoth said, adding Trump won Republican primaries quite easily while presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden had difficulty winning delegates. "On balance, a stronger performance in primaries gives Donald Trump the edge in November."

Norpoth cited Biden's fourth-place finish in the Iowa caucus and his fifth-place finish in the New Hampshire primary as among his reasons for his forecast.

"The terrain of presidential contests is littered with nominees who saw a poll lead in the spring turn to dust in the fall," Norpoth told Mediaite. "The list is long and discouraging for early front runners. Beginning with Thomas Dewey in 1948, it spans such notables as Richard Nixon in 1960, Jimmy Carter in 1980, Michael Dukakis in 1988, George H.W. Bush in 1992, and John Kerry in 2004, to cite just the most spectacular cases."

In the weeks leading up to the 2016 electron, Trump trailed former Democratic presidential nominee Hilary Clinton in nearly every poll and still won the presidency

You're damn right i'm going to dismiss this guy's forecast... Basing your entire forecast model on the margins of the primary is stupid. It was also locked in stone in March....

[kaid]

Thought this was interesting. I also think the great majority on here will dismiss it as garbage. And do not take it as my personal prediction of the outcome of the 2020 general election, because this model has been incorrect 2 times out of the last 26 elections.....https://www.newsweek.com/professor-w...20-win-1516609

Despite a number of poll numbers that predict Donald Trump will lose his reelection bid, one political scientist says the president has a good chance of winning a second term.

Helmut Norpoth, a political science professor at Stony Brook University--who forecasted Trump's 2016 win eight months ahead of the election and has accurately predicted 25 out of 27 elections--said on Fox News' The Ingraham Angle that Trump's reelection chances are above 90 percent.

"The key to the November election is the primaries," Norpoth said, adding Trump won Republican primaries quite easily while presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden had difficulty winning delegates. "On balance, a stronger performance in primaries gives Donald Trump the edge in November."

Norpoth cited Biden's fourth-place finish in the Iowa caucus and his fifth-place finish in the New Hampshire primary as among his reasons for his forecast.

"The terrain of presidential contests is littered with nominees who saw a poll lead in the spring turn to dust in the fall," Norpoth told Mediaite. "The list is long and discouraging for early front runners. Beginning with Thomas Dewey in 1948, it spans such notables as Richard Nixon in 1960, Jimmy Carter in 1980, Michael Dukakis in 1988, George H.W. Bush in 1992, and John Kerry in 2004, to cite just the most spectacular cases."

In the weeks leading up to the 2016 electron, Trump trailed former Democratic presidential nominee Hilary Clinton in nearly every poll and still won the presidency

That is a super interesting take when the GOP when it looked like trump would actually have some challengers in the primary promptly started cancelling primaries. That said if anything 2020 has shown us is anything can happen but for primary performance. Biden won the nomination barely running he had almost no apparatus/didn't do that much campaigning/ wasn't spending money and yet once they got to states actually representative of who votes for democrats he won by a landslide.

[Kryctos]

Looking at my 401k very dynamic stasis is kinda the best decscription. Since 2018 two major craters and then sharp rebounds to eak out a tiny big of gain on top of actual inputs. Life is going to get pretty interesting when gen x people start trying to retire and realize they won't ever be able to.

Ive made 85 dollars on my 401k since January it took a nose dive in february but has ben crawling back up at a rate of less than 1 %when i had a mderate 5 to 8% last year.

[Ursus]

"The key to the November election is the primaries," Norpoth said, adding Trump won Republican primaries quite easily while presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden had difficulty winning delegates. "On balance, a stronger performance in primaries gives Donald Trump the edge in November."

Is this guy serious? The significance of that is jack shit, considering the incumbent President almost always wins the primary "quite easily". I can't remember the last time one didn't. Probably Jimmy Carter vs. Ted Kennedy in 1980.

[Thekri]

Even the people that benefit the most from his tax cut do not want him as president. They consider him an existential threat.

“THEY’RE SAYING, ‘WE’D LIKE TO SEE BIDEN CRUSH TRUMP’”: FOR SOME ON WALL STREET BEATING TRUMP IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN MONEY

I really appreciate that in order to gauge Wall Street's feelings on the matter, they found a guy literally named "Wolf". Well done Vanity Fair.

Still, this is what I have been speculating on for a while. Trump is great for corporations for a while, because his tax cuts and regulation roll-backs lead to huge short term gains. But they are immensely destructive long term, because they are simply not sustainable. Trump can't do them in a way that isn't hugely controversial, so everyone knows they are going to get rolled back hard, and the longer we wait, the more dramatic that is going to be.

Biden is the perfect candidate for Wall Street (and I know that statement is going to drive our resident progressives into a frenzy) because he is fundamentally a moderate. He wants to put the rules back the way they were under Obama and Clinton, and frankly, those were pretty good times for Wall Street. Yes, there were more regulations, but they really didn't get in the way of profit too much, and they provided stability during crisis. Biden isn't going to do what Sander's wanted too on Wall Street, so they are pretty happy with him winning.

[minteK917]

This will be an important election for the western world. We will finally know if the western world have to ditch its reliance on the United states as its super power. And i dont mean just Trump not being elected. If Biden wins but fails to make sure America can no longer fall to idiocracy the damage will still be the same. The EU will have to finally get off its Laurel or face the asia take over. This will have long term repercusions. Biden will need to be more then just "hes not trump" in his actions or idiocracy is never really gone and its just postponing the next stage. I remind you just going back to "Obama" era is not the goal Biden should go for either, Obama Era is right before you dropped down to retarded tier. So going back to pre retarded tier doesent solve the impending possibility of going back to it after biden.

Holding the last white house administration accountable, is at the top of the list.

[Kaleredar]

I really appreciate that in order to gauge Wall Street's feelings on the matter, they found a guy literally named "Wolf". Well done Vanity Fair.

Still, this is what I have been speculating on for a while. Trump is great for corporations for a while, because his tax cuts and regulation roll-backs lead to huge short term gains. But they are immensely destructive long term, because they are simply not sustainable. Trump can't do them in a way that isn't hugely controversial, so everyone knows they are going to get rolled back hard, and the longer we wait, the more dramatic that is going to be.

Biden is the perfect candidate for Wall Street (and I know that statement is going to drive our resident progressives into a frenzy) because he is fundamentally a moderate. He wants to put the rules back the way they were under Obama and Clinton, and frankly, those were pretty good times for Wall Street. Yes, there were more regulations, but they really didn't get in the way of profit too much, and they provided stability during crisis. Biden isn't going to do what Sander's wanted too on Wall Street, so they are pretty happy with him winning.

I imagine volatility is a huge issue under trump as well. This Coronavirus pandemic that trump has dropped down a flight of stairs every step of the way isn’t good for a lot of people’s bottom line.

Trump has no policy to speak of beyond whatever occurs to him second to second. It’s hard to gauge what’s a good investment or how well a company is going to perform if Trump suddenly decides there needs to be a tariff or he screws up relations with some essential foreign governance or if threats to withhold funding from some entity. And as I said, those things aren’t based on any concrete doctrine or position... just a senile old man’s whims.

Tax cuts mean less of the money you earn is taken back, sure, but... if you don’t know if where you’re getting money from in the first place is going to be reliable or even exist, what good do tax breaks do you?