Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[Benggaul]

The thing about this: I heard McConnell asked about his dismal approval ratings, and his response was probably the most reasonable things I've heard him say. It was basically along the lines of "it's because I'm in leadership." He gets low approval from Democrats because of everything he is doing, and low approval from Republicans for everything he isn't doing.

Nah, that's a copout response that's basically an expansion on "Damned if you do; damned if you don't". Every Senator/Representative has to deal with that, yet he is consistently the least-liked. If Schumer were the majority leader I sincerely doubt he'd be labeled "least popular Senator" several years running.

[Nurasu]

What is everyone talking about? I did google... but...

Declassified Susan Rice email reveals FBI concern about Flynn, further debunks Trump’s ‘Obamagate’ accusations
https://www.nydailynews.com/news/pol...lti-story.html

‘She is absolutely our No. 1 draft pick’: GOP pines for Rice as Biden VP
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...esident-391480

Is this it?

Yes, she's been vaguely accused by Republicans of being part of the "deep state" who leaked information about Trump campaign members / "unmasked" them. "Obamagate" is pretty nebulous, and it's hard to pinpoint anything that they're talking about precisely. Still, I'd prefer to avoid the entire thing by going with someone else.

And I swear if I have to live through another news cycle of fucking Benghazi, I might just buy a ticket to NY to jump off Trump tower while the airfare is so low.

[Edge-]

https://www.thegazette.com/factcheck...-game-20200805

Shockingly, the Trump campaign once again doctored an image used in campaign ads. The Gazette took the photo, they're not happy.

[Thelxi]

Great reporting, is the opposite of speculation...
What is luxurious vulnerability ...?
Hello brain worms!

Look, research 101:
Attributable quotes are the most reliable.
Unattributed quotes less so. Can they be verified by other independent sources? Foxnew.com copypasting the Axios article, is not verification.
No quotes, is very unreliable.
Unattributed quote fragments, see above.
Unattributed quote fragments from 2 weeks ago "Biden should announce by the first week of August.."

Pointing out that your axios article has no attributal quotes, or any quotes. feels bad.

Axios lucking into the Trump interview ... is just probability. Prior to that, they were just a more political version or VICE news. Or the more tabloidy version of Politico, whom they broke off from.

Brain worms? try trap. Your ignorance is luxurious because your life is good enough to allow you to not know or even understand that democracy does not exist without journalism, to the point where you are actively undermining it against your own interests.

[Thepersona]

So, umm... Kamala is the front runner, right?

[PfeffermintShake]

Damn. More tightening. No wonder the DC press corps is so bored.

Political Polls
PpollingNumbers

National Poll:
Biden 56% (+12)
Trump 44%

Reuters
Ipsos

12:37 PM · Aug 5, 2020·Twitter

[Thepersona]

Damn. More tightening. No wonder the DC press corps is so bored.

Political Polls
PpollingNumbers

National Poll:
Biden 56% (+12)
Trump 44%

Reuters
Ipsos

12:37 PM · Aug 5, 2020·Twitter

Did Hillary ever lead in the polls by 10+ points?

[PfeffermintShake]

Did Hillary ever lead in the polls by 10+ points?

By 10+ for 6 weeks+

Dunno, if FDR even polled this well.

[eschatological]

It can't be Susan Rice. She's been too much a part of the "Obama scandal" machine for too long. Biden managed to largely escape that, she didn't.

Harris has her issues, but they're mainly issues that people on the very Left of the spectrum have, and we've seen this primary season that those people don't show the fuck up anyways. The whole "tough prosecutor" thing can't be used against her by Republicans because they love that shit, and she intimidates them. Her questioning in Congressional hearings should be enough to make Mike Pence piss his pants in a debate. Susan Rice seems too professionally polite to asshole Republicans, very much like Obama.

If these are the two on the short list, it has to be Kamala. She doesn't bring much in terms of electoral math, being from California, but she has (generally) wide support among Democrats whenever they see her in attack mode, and she has no scandals that Republicans can really use. There might be some minor blowback to the left of her, but oh well.

Plus, Biden has a chance to bury the hatchet with the race stuff she accused him of in a debate. "I was angry, and didn't respond well when Senator Harris first mentioned suchandsuch and my position on suchandsuch. But after months of listening, of speaking to the wonderful people of this country, I've learned something new." Etc.

Her issues among black people (in re: her run for Presidency) was largely about her electibility. I predict that they'll still turn up for her if she's on the ticket as VP.

[Ghostpanther]

Did Hillary ever lead in the polls by 10+ points?

Much more than by 10 points....https://www.businessinsider.com/hill...d-trump-2016-8

The poll, conducted by McClatchy/Marist, showed the Democratic nominee with a massive 15-point lead over her Republican opponent. This was in early August 2016.

This article was written in Oct. 2016....https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...p-clinton-lead

Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton now has an 11-percentage-point lead over her Republican opponent Donald Trump, according to a poll released by PRRI and the Atlantic on Tuesday. If that weren’t already reason enough for Trump supporters to worry, a poll from NBC and the Wall Street Journal released on Monday put Clinton’s lead at 14 percentage points.

The Real Clear Politics average for Biden's lead over Trump is as of today....7 points.

Rassmussen and The Hill/HarrisX polls both show Biden with a 3 point lead as of today. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

[Benggaul]

*Sigh* It just keeps getting stupider and more corrupt...
A Well-Connected GOP Strategist Is Helping Kanye West Get on the Ballot in Wisconsin

[Blur4stuff]

Trump lost by 3 mil votes to the most vilified politician in modern history. Since becoming president, he's done absolutely nothing to win over voters that went for Hillary. He's gone out of his way to make them hate him. He's also chased more reasonable republicans out of the party.

I would love to see an explanation on how Trump makes up that kind of difference given that he can't seem to go a single week without behaving like an idiot.

[Edge-]

Trump lost by 3 mil votes to the most vilified politician in modern history. Since becoming president, he's done absolutely nothing to win over voters that went for Hillary. He's gone out of his way to make them hate him. He's also chased more reasonable republicans out of the party.

I would love to see an explanation on how Trump makes up that kind of difference given that he can't seem to go a single week without behaving like an idiot.

Because the popular vote doesn't matter. As long as he can win enough Trump voters in enough states, as well as enough, "No, I'd never vote for Trump!" in public folks, he has a path. Couple that with Republican ramping up voter suppression/disenfranchisement efforts and you've got a very real possibility where Trump could lose by more votes but still win an election.

[cubby]

Trump lost by 3 mil votes to the most vilified politician in modern history. Since becoming president, he's done absolutely nothing to win over voters that went for Hillary. He's gone out of his way to make them hate him. He's also chased more reasonable republicans out of the party.

I would love to see an explanation on how Trump makes up that kind of difference given that he can't seem to go a single week without behaving like an idiot.

While what you are saying is both true and inspiring, Trump doesn't have to win the popular vote - in fact, save for Bush2 in 2004, NO republican president has won the popular vote since Bush1 - which tells you a FUCKLOAD about what the Trumpkins and the GOP lap dogs love the EC - but that's for another day.

Right now three factors are keeping Trump in the hunt:

1 - he just needs to win a few key battleground states. Taking FL, WI, and OH would give him either the win or a close call. I won't go into the calculus - you get what I mean here.

2 - his rabid (and mostly insane) fan base is keeping GOP stronghold states red - people in the U.S. red states are the global champs of own-goal voting against their interests, and that hasn't changed, even with someone as horrific as Trump.

3 - and this is the kicker - Trump is actively putting into motion things that will either disrupt or outright suppress the voting in November. He's assaulting every part of our democratic system, and he will do anything to win.

That's why Dipshit-in-Chief is still a candidate to beat. NOT because he's electable, but because so many people don't realize he's not.

[Thepersona]

Because the popular vote doesn't matter. As long as he can win enough Trump voters in enough states, as well as enough, "No, I'd never vote for Trump!" in public folks, he has a path. Couple that with Republican ramping up voter suppression/disenfranchisement efforts and you've got a very real possibility where Trump could lose by more votes but still win an election.

That's why i was asking if Hillary was at this point with the same comfortable lead that Biden has, or at any point, i dont remember being the case.

- - - Updated - - -

While what you are saying is both true and inspiring, Trump doesn't have to win the popular vote - in fact, save for Bush2 in 2004, NO republican president has won the popular vote since Bush1 - which tells you a FUCKLOAD about what the Trumpkins and the GOP lap dogs love the EC - but that's for another day.

Right now two factors are keeping Trump in the hunt:

1 - he just needs to win a few key battleground states. Taking FL, WI, and OH would give him either the win or a close call. I won't go into the calculus - you get what I mean here.

2 - and this is the kicker - Trump is actively putting into motion things that will either disrupt or outright suppress the voting in November. He's assaulting every part of our democratic system, and he will do anything to win.

That's why Dipshit-in-Chief is still a candidate to beat. NOT because he's electable, but because so many people don't realize he's not.

My only hope at this point is that he's so fucking incompetent at everything he does (and this extends to his goons) that even said attempts to supress the vote will fail spectacularly, or at the very least, still fail in the way of not being enough to land him a cheating win

[Ghostpanther]

Trump lost by 3 mil votes to the most vilified politician in modern history. Since becoming president, he's done absolutely nothing to win over voters that went for Hillary. He's gone out of his way to make them hate him. He's also chased more reasonable republicans out of the party.

I would love to see an explanation on how Trump makes up that kind of difference given that he can't seem to go a single week without behaving like an idiot.

He has over 90% approval within the Republican party. And there are millions who still support him for what to them, is his accomplishments based on his policies. They do not care about his personality. Now I understand you say those are bullshit and are not real, but that does not change the fact millions will disagree with you and will vote for him this Nov.

The only Republicans who do not support him are mainly those who do not like him personally for various reasons and some feel butt sore he beat some established candidates within their party so soundly.

I think he has lost some support with some who voted for him, but gained support from others who didn't. For one, I think he will get more African American votes this time than in 2016. Will it be enough? Time will tell. The polls are not looking good at the moment for him. But they have been improving a little lately. He is in better position according to the polls now, than he was in 2016 this same time of the year.

I still think it will be a very close race and with the mail in voting, we may have to wait weeks after Nov.3 to know for sure who won.

[eschatological]

If you think this dude is getting MORE African American votes this year, you're politically naive beyond belief.

[Masark]

If you think this dude is getting MORE African American votes this year, you're politically naive beyond belief.

Or think that he's going to send Blackwater death squads rampaging through blue cities, killing any black people not wearing MAGA hats that come near a polling station

[Benggaul]

Or think that he's going to send Blackwater death squads rampaging through blue cities, killing any black people not wearing MAGA hats that come near a polling station

He doesn't have to. Several thousand have already volunteered.

[Ghostpanther]

Or think that he's going to send Blackwater death squads rampaging through blue cities, killing any black people not wearing MAGA hats that come near a polling station

I have to admit, your sarcasm gives me some chuckles at times.

But this is one link which may show his approval rating among blacks is getting better than some may think.....https://www.fitsnews.com/2020/06/03/...rities-are-up/

A part of the article....

Something very surprising (and worth watching) within these numbers, though? Black Americans – the ostensible victims of Trump’s “racism” – are backing Trump in stronger numbers after the riots, according to the YouGuv data. Last week, 12 percent of black voters approved of the job Trump was doing – including 7 percent who strongly approved. This week, 18 percent approved – including 11 percent who strongly approved.