Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[Draco-Onis]

My gut says there is nothing that could be released that will make a splash. I mean, its 2020, there is an apocalyptic disaster day in day out. Like, what are they going to reveal? That Biden might have partied on Epstein Island? Fuck at this point it might be easier to compile a list of elites who didn't. There is in short no bombshell I can imagine other than "Biden is actually dead and its all pre-recordings and deep fakes" that could make enough of a splash to overcome the noise of the constant horror show that is just the 2020 news cycle.

I don't think, with the way the economy is going, the pandemic, and just the rolling news of horrific disaster after disaster, even if some of them are just acts of the Gods, that any president, even the most competent, even the most visionary leader could overcome.

Most likely something about Obama and Biden spying on Trump or more stuff on Hunter Biden. We know Guliani and crew have been helping in the report so a propaganda emergency press conference in October to help Trump but who knows what they will make up. However it could be something worse some kind of investigation to give Trump the excuse to postpone or cancel the election if the polling is not going his way.

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So now that the RNC is over when is Trump's convention?

Next week they gonna party like it's 1918.

[SirBeef]

Let's not forget though Bill Barr is cooking up an October surprise alongside Dunham to mimic Comey's letter.

Big difference this time is Biden has a penis, has high favorability and likability, and much like Trump, nothing sticks to him. People were going out of their way to find a reason not to vote for HRC.

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Most likely something about Obama and Biden spying on Trump or more stuff on Hunter Biden. We know Guliani and crew have been helping in the report so a propaganda emergency press conference in October to help Trump but who knows what they will make up. However it could be something worse some kind of investigation to give Trump the excuse to postpone or cancel the election if the polling is not going his way.

Except that is only going to be red meat for the base. People believe Trump was not spied on but rather a proper investigation with concerns of vote interference happened. And the Hunter stuff was really a non issue from the start and never gained any traction.

[Omega10]

Most likely something about Obama and Biden spying on Trump or more stuff on Hunter Biden. We know Guliani and crew have been helping in the report so a propaganda emergency press conference in October to help Trump but who knows what they will make up. However it could be something worse some kind of investigation to give Trump the excuse to postpone or cancel the election if the polling is not going his way.

Well, he is working hard to maximize the odds of a chaotic election with uncertain results. Or at least result that can be "reasonably contested".

https://www.yahoo.com/news/leaked-us...183434321.html

Title: Leaked USPS email tells postal workers not to reconnect or reinstall sorting machines 'that have been previously disconnected'

A leaked email to United States Postal Service employees instructed them to not reassemble mail sorting machines that have been dismantled, CNN first reported.

The note, written by Kevin Couch, a maintenance operations director, said that workers were "not to reconnect/reinstall machines that have been previously disconnected without approval from HQ Maintenance."

These instructions took precedence over orders given by plant managers, Couch added.

Just hours before, Postmaster General Louis DeJoy said that all service changes will be paused until after Election Day.

Postmaster General Louis DeJoy announced on Tuesday that he is suspending all operational changes to the United States Postal Service until after the election, but an internal email obtained by CNN instructs postal workers not to reassemble any mail sorting machines without permission if they have already been disconnected.

[Draco-Onis]

Big difference this time is Biden has a penis, has high favorability and likability, and much like Trump, nothing sticks to him. People were going out of their way to find a reason not to vote for HRC.

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Except that is only going to be red meat for the base. People believe Trump was not spied on but rather a proper investigation with concerns of vote interference happened. And the Hunter stuff was really a non issue from the start and never gained any traction.

My bet would be the election if the polling is looking really bad Bill Barr comes out with a "SHOCKING INVESTIGATION" about foreign interference or something of the sort to give Trump legal grounds to postpone or challenge the election and affect the polling.

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Well, he is working hard to maximize the odds of a chaotic election with uncertain results. Or at least result that can be "reasonably contested".

https://www.yahoo.com/news/leaked-us...183434321.html

Title: Leaked USPS email tells postal workers not to reconnect or reinstall sorting machines 'that have been previously disconnected'

I think his latest is to send his gestapo to the polls to "secure" the vote, mail stuffing, ballot tossing, voter intimidation, Trump is throwing everything and the kitchen sink to rig the election in his favor.

[Felya]

So now that the RNC is over when is Trump's convention?

Now AOC, Bernie and Yang are Republicans? Okay....

You’ll be able to tell it’s the GOP convention, because everyone you just called republican, will be called an extremist liberal trying to destroy the country. You’ll be able to tell, because it will be about cuts to healthcare, ignoring covid and drumming up support for ass hole celebrities... You know, the people you actually support, but afraid to admit it.

Make sure to clap, as you watch them demand cuts to every program you claim to support and demand the end off all progressive or liberal programs, because they are the bane of America. Maybe celebrating more tax cuts to the rich and a border wall. Everything they can to create an impression that in the next 4 years, a progressive with be like a communist in the 50s...

[Levelfive]

Big difference this time is Biden has a penis, has high favorability and likability, and much like Trump, nothing sticks to him. People were going out of their way to find a reason not to vote for HRC.

Agreed. And Trump supporters love to cite 2016 polling, but polls predicted she'd win by 3% and she did. There's more here starting around 51:25 on how unlikely it was to win by 3 million votes but lose the EC: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7mUprelMqys

[Ghostpanther]

Except that Hillary didn't really have a 14 point lead on Trump at that point, unless you cherry-pick the outlier poll. 538's aggregate polling had her up about 6.5% at that point, and even that was just about the widest margin she had the entire campaign run.




Their aggregate numbers even showed that lead narrowed to lows of 0.2% on 7/30, 1.1% on 9/20, and even 2.7% on 11/4. That lead was far more volatile than Biden's is now. Biden's lead has remained consistent throughout, and has only really broadened as time moves on.




And while Trump was less of a known political entity (at least to the masses) in 2016, everyone now is painfully familiar with the kind of President he would be with another four years. So the number of people who might vote for him on a lark just to "shake up the system" is probably fairly non-existent at this point.

Also at this point in the 2016 election, there were 19.2% undecided/third party. Right now in the 2020 election, it's 6.3%. Biden's consistently polled over 50%, so Trump can't simply pick up a large chunk of undecided/third party votes in order to surpass Biden. Hillary never aggregately polled over 46%, but ended up with 48.2%. Biden, on the other hand, has never aggregately polled below 47.5%.

Trump knows all this, which is why he's doing everything he can to suppress voters.

I do not for a second believe that point. But the rest of your points are well taken. So I will still be surprised if he wins reelection. But polls have been known to be off and in some cases, by a lot. Not saying that will be the case this time. They are interesting to watch. And in the battleground states, they do show the race getting closer.

[Felya]

I do not for a second believe that point.

How exactly is Trump doing everything he can to prevent mail in voting, and is threatening to send feds to guard some election offices, not suppressing the vote? Why do you trust Trump in everything, excluding when he literally claimed his attacks on mail in voting, were to suppress the vote? He literally admitted as much...

Why is it democrats telling everyone to vote, while Trump only seems to encourage voting on his mailers of a billionaire asking middle class for money?

[SirBeef]

My bet would be the election if the polling is looking really bad Bill Barr comes out with a "SHOCKING INVESTIGATION" about foreign interference or something of the sort to give Trump legal grounds to postpone or challenge the election and affect the polling.

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I think his latest is to send his gestapo to the polls to "secure" the vote, mail stuffing, ballot tossing, voter intimidation, Trump is throwing everything and the kitchen sink to rig the election in his favor.

Again, I don't think anything will stick with those undecideds or those leaning Biden. Barry is a know partisan hack. He is not respected outside of the GOP base and they have already thrown out a China is meddling to help Biden win story that has been largely ignored. The majority of the American Public who likely will vote know this administration is nothing but hit air and lies.

[Draco-Onis]

Again, I don't think anything will stick with those undecideds or those leaning Biden. Barry is a know partisan hack. He is not respected outside of the GOP base and they have already thrown out a China is meddling to help Biden win story that has been largely ignored. The majority of the American Public who likely will vote know this administration is nothing but hit air and lies.

You have more faith in the average American than I do, let's also keep in mind although only 30% of Americans think Trump is doing a great job with COVID his approval rating is much higher. You should never underestimate the stupid.

[SirBeef]

Agreed. And Trump supporters love to cite 2016 polling, but polls predicted she'd win by 3% and she did. There's more here starting around 51:25 on how unlikely it was to win by 3 million votes but lose the EC: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7mUprelMqys

Very true. Many love to post those odds of winning articles as if they mean anything. And still, polling does not represent truth either, just a snapshot in time about what a certain distribution of people think. Still most called the election for HRC and were still correct due to margain of error.

[Omega10]

I do not for a second believe that point. But the rest of your points are well taken. So I will still be surprised if he wins reelection. But polls have been known to be off and in some cases, by a lot. Not saying that will be the case this time. They are interesting to watch. And in the battleground states, they do show the race getting closer.

Oh Trump is most definitely working overtime to suppress as many democratic votes as possible. Early on in the virus, his administration lamented that they did not want to effectively fight the virus because it was almost exclusively in blue areas at the time and it was not in his political best interest to help people living in those areas. He brags about his plans to destroy the USPS, and to have armed federal forces at voting precincts in blue areas. And of course, republicans continue to find ways to make it harder to vote in blue areas such as reducing the number of voting booths in blue areas to maximize the inconvenience to democrats to vote.

There is a lot of money that has a vested interest in Trump staying in office, whatever it takes. The fossil fuel industries are currently basically funded by the stimulus package administered by the Trump administration, and the health care insurance industry and pharmaceutical industry both have huge financial interest in keeping Trump in office. They each have a LOT of money and influence in US elections. At this point I wouldn't put the odds of Biden being President in January at any better than 50-50 or maybe 60-40. Voter suppression works. It will be a brutal disgusting fight and it will diminish the US. But it is what it is.

[Felya]

Very true. Many love to post those odds of winning articles as if they mean anything. And still, polling does not represent truth either, just a snapshot in time about what a certain distribution of people think. Still most called the election for HRC and were still correct due to margain of error.

It’s what creates the ‘Hillary had a 12% lead 2 weeks prior’ arguments... since it completely ignores what happened 8 days prior to election. If Trump wins, are we going to dig up polls from January to claim they were right?

[Ivanstone]

I do not for a second believe that point.

You're correct. Trump is simply too incompetent to suppress the vote even if its what he wants. The GOP at large is a firm believer in voter suppression and have been competently doing it for years.

[SirBeef]

It’s what creates the ‘Hillary had a 12% lead 2 weeks prior’ arguments... since it completely ignores what happened 8 days prior to election. If Trump wins, are we going to dig up polls from January to claim they were right?

Just saying. Polls don't mean much other than a generality of that moment. And one outlier poll does not mean reality. She still had 3M more votes and that would have been in line with the national polls. However, her losing still fits with the HRC up polls due to margin if error.

Frankly, for shits and giggles, I want Biden to lose the popular vote but win the EC just like in 2016. However, without some ajor fuckery, it's really looking to be a huge Biden victory. More registered Democrats, more e engagement, Trumo spending tons of money and resources in areas the GOP should never have to. Combined with COVID, Bidens favorability and large appeal to men and moderates, tells me Trump has a large hill to climb.

However if the polls show Trump losing within the margin of error and he wins, then sure, I would pull out polls and say exactly what I have said before.

[cors8]

https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/3410857...mpression=true

Should be interesting to see how it all plays out. Weird that the Dems could get their shit together but the GOP is constantly scrambling to adapt to changing plans.

Not weird when your "leader" can change his mind based on a whim or whatever he watches on OAN/Fox News.

[PhaelixWW]

I do not for a second believe that point.

Hasn't Trump been screaming about non-existent mail-in voter fraud? Didn't a federal judge just tell him that he had zero evidence to support that claim?

Here's some fun facts, courtesy of the government itself:

Early, Absentee, and Mail Voting

• The percentage of voters who cast their ballots on a voting machine at a polling place on Election Day has declined steadily over the past decade, while the number of states offering early voting, no-excuse absentee voting, and vote by mail has increased.
• The total number of voters who voted early, absentee or by mail more than doubled from 24.9 million in 2004 to 57.2 million in 2016, representing an increase from one in five of all ballots cast to two in five of all ballots cast.
• The number of U.S. citizens voting early more than doubled from nearly 10.2 million early ballots cast in 2004 to 24.1 million early ballots cast in 2016.
• In 2016, 16 states showed a combined percentage of greater than 50 percent of votes cast early, by mail, or via absentee voting.

Over 40% of the votes cast in the 2016 election were done in a non-election-day manner, where a ballot could just be mailed in or dropped off.

The idea that mass mail-in voting will be fraudulent is complete, absolute, utter, 100% bullshit. And even if they were fraudulent, then Trump's election in 2016 should be the first to go, no?

[Zan15]

I do not for a second believe that point. But the rest of your points are well taken. So I will still be surprised if he wins reelection. But polls have been known to be off and in some cases, by a lot. Not saying that will be the case this time. They are interesting to watch. And in the battleground states, they do show the race getting closer.

No they haven't.

They were quite accurate in 2016, they did what they were supposed to do and were well within error margins.

You are once again, under your consistent bad faith arguing when it comes to polls that don't support Trump, talking about polls like it is the Electoral College. You are talking about polls like its "election prediction guesses".

Only poll that was "off by a lot" was the one poll that had trump winning the popular vote.
State polls were off in the few states that trump surprisingly won, but only by thousands of votes nowhere near your claim of "way off"

The only examples that have ever been provided by anyone making these claims are one off polls or polls done by a non reputable polling group i.e Rasmussen.

[Inuyaki]

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I have no words...

Edit:
Also that quote... lol
I guess they couldn't find a better quote, because there wasn't any other quote that wasn't complete word salad?

[Edge-]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/22/polit...ing/index.html

Well, at least Democrats are trying to save the USPS and the mail-in vote this November.

We'll see if Republicans bother to show up to do anything, though Trump has already signaled he'll veto the bill because he's proudly supporting disenfranchising voters, delaying life saving medication to Americans including veterans, and hates produce and baby chicks.