Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[Benggaul]

You don't think that it could sway some undecided voter who doesn't pay much attention to anything except the "crazy" things they eventually hear about from other people, like riots?

I don't know. Were they not swayed by Trump telling people on national television to inject disinfectant? Were they not swayed by the nearly 2000 missing immigrant children? Were they not swayed by Trump saying he loved choke holds in the wake of George Floyd's death by strangulation? Were they not swayed by Trump telling governors they won't get help for COVID-19 relief if they aren't nice to him?

If the deaths of 180k people to COVID-19 and the shooting by a Trump supporter just a couple days ago didn't sway them, but the shooting of one Trump supporter does; if the systemic racism didn't sway them but the protests against the racism do, then I'd say they had already made their minds up long ago.

[DingDongKing]

This shit is unbelievable. All Biden had to do was support literally any progressive policy like Medicare for All or even legalizing weed to win over left leaning independents, he didn't even need to get it done, just lie about it and say he supports it, and he couldn't even do that. And now he's going to lose the election and they're gonna blame it on Bernie supporters and BLM protesters. But he was the "most electable" guys!

https://twitter.com/WalkerBragman/st...22482528129028


Also lol let's keep going after Republicans guys what could go wrong?

https://twitter.com/_waleedshahid/st...67744865902601

Final 2016 EC results.

WI: Trump 0.7
PA: Trump 0.7
NC: Trump 3.7
FL: Trump 1.2
MI: Trump 0.3
OH: Trump 8.1

Those margins are very fine barring NC and OH. But even then, that entire 'this is where we 4 years ago' notion is moot.

This election is entirely different, for so many reasons it's hard to collate them all.

If Biden loses, it won't be because the protests or because of Bernie supporters. It will be because of many many mitigating factors. COVID-19, the mail-in issue, even more voter suppression than last time and a corrupt Administration that will do whatever it takes to rig the election.

As of now, my bet is on Trump to win (unfortunately) and it's not because Biden isn't leaning left enough. It's because America is a total shit-storm socially and there is a LOT of things this Administration would do that a previous one would not in order to mess with the election.

[Flower Milk]

Final 2016 EC results.

WI: Trump 0.7
PA: Trump 0.7
NC: Trump 3.7
FL: Trump 1.2
MI: Trump 0.3
OH: Trump 8.1

Those margins are very fine barring NC and OH. But even then, that entire 'this is where we 4 years ago' notion is moot.

This election is entirely different, for so many reasons it's hard to collate them all.

If Biden loses, it won't be because the protests or because of Bernie supporters. It will be because of many many mitigating factors. COVID-19, the mail-in issue, even more voter suppression than last time and a corrupt Administration that will do whatever it takes to rig the election.

As of now, my bet is on Trump to win (unfortunately) and it's not because Biden isn't leaning left enough. It's because America is a total shit-storm socially and there is a LOT of things this Administration would do that a previous one would not in order to mess with the election.

Trump will win because Biden/Democrats are offering nothing to improve people's materials conditions, which means things like Medicare for All. People who got coronavirus will be in medical debt, they will suffer from medical problems after having COVID and it will be expensive. Supporting Medicare for All during a global pandemic is like the bare minimum at this point, and Democrats voted it down as part of their party platform right before the convention. They're offering people "restoring the soul of the nation" and wondering why millions of people who are unemployed and about to be evicted from their homes aren't buying it.

You don't defeat fascism with neoliberalism, you defeat fascism by improving people's material conditions so they don't turn to fascist ideology. Democrats shit the bed and they aren't going to save us.

[beanman12345]

Final 2016 EC results.

WI: Trump 0.7
PA: Trump 0.7
NC: Trump 3.7
FL: Trump 1.2
MI: Trump 0.3
OH: Trump 8.1

Those margins are very fine barring NC and OH. But even then, that entire 'this is where we 4 years ago' notion is moot.

This election is entirely different, for so many reasons it's hard to collate them all.

If Biden loses, it won't be because the protests or because of Bernie supporters. It will be because of many many mitigating factors. COVID-19, the mail-in issue, even more voter suppression than last time and a corrupt Administration that will do whatever it takes to rig the election.

As of now, my bet is on Trump to win (unfortunately) and it's not because Biden isn't leaning left enough. It's because America is a total shit-storm socially and there is a LOT of things this Administration would do that a previous one would not in order to mess with the election.

Like Trump is seriously fucking with the USPS to cheat to win. Apparently the Intelligence community is no longer gonna brief congress about election interference, because they're afraid of trump, like WTF? And people think Biden's gonna lose because of protests or because he's not left enough? If Biden just legalized pot Trump wouldn't be able to cheat his way to win, like what?

edit - a crap sorry quoted wrong person. ah well.

[s_bushido]

Trump will win because Biden/Democrats are offering nothing to improve people's materials conditions, which means things like Medicare for All.

"Trump will win because the Democrats aren't doing things that the Republicans will never do in a million years either."

Like...do you even hear yourself?

Look, I get it, unseating an incumbent isn't exactly easy, but Trump isn't exactly the typical incumbent. You would probably do well to stop pretending that your pet issue is as important to everyone else as it is to you.

[Benggaul]

Trump will win because Biden/Democrats are offering nothing to improve people's materials conditions, which means things like Medicare for All. People who got coronavirus will be in medical debt, they will suffer from medical problems after having COVID and it will be expensive. Supporting Medicare for All during a global pandemic is like the bare minimum at this point, and Democrats voted it down as part of their party platform right before the convention. They're offering people "restoring the soul of the nation" and wondering why millions of people who are unemployed and about to be evicted from their homes aren't buying it.

You don't defeat fascism with neoliberalism, you defeat fascism by improving people's material conditions so they don't turn to fascist ideology. Democrats shit the bed and they aren't going to save us.

Bullshit. If Trump wins it'll be because he successfully ratfucked the process enough in his favor. Anyone who says "oh well my candidate didn't make it through the primary so it doesn't matter who wins now" is a privileged shit who honestly does not care about "equality for all" because it's very clear many more will suffer under Trump than Biden. This is you saying you don't care how many other people you have to sacrifice as long as you get your way--and the dumb thing is you're going to be even further away from getting "your way" if Trump wins.

It's like vegetarianism. It's a nice, healthy stance but ultimately it's one of privilege that far from everyone can afford to follow. Some vegetarians understand that and just advocate for healthier, more environmentally sustainable choices where reasonably available and others think everyone who isn't a vegetarian is a fucking monster.

[Flower Milk]

"Trump will win because the Democrats aren't doing things that the Republicans will never do in a million years either."

Like...do you even hear yourself?

Look, I get it, unseating an incumbent isn't exactly easy, but Trump isn't exactly the typical incumbent. You would probably do well to stop pretending that your pet issue is as important to everyone else as it is to you.

If you think Republicans aren't pretending to care about the working class, then you are living in a bubble. They spent the entire RNC convention talking about that, even though their "solutions" are literally not going to help the working class in any way and make it worse. But they definitely talked about it.

The Nazis came into power by appealing to the working class with bad solutions as well, they were even originally called the "German Worker's Party". And it's not my "pet issue", it's just objective reality that people in this country are going to die or be in crippling medical debt after the pandemic, on top of millions being unemployed and people being mass evicted from their homes. The last time the world saw this amount of an economic recession in a country was in Weimar Germany after WW1 before the Nazis took power. If you want to cover your eyes and ears to what is currently going on and think the Democrats don't need to address it at all and just keep running on empty platitudes of "restoring the soul of the nation", while fascists like Trump tell them that he's going to fix the economy and that those Communists are destroying their property, go on right ahead and delude yourself.

Bullshit. If Trump wins it'll be because he successfully ratfucked the process enough in his favor. Anyone who says "oh well my candidate didn't make it through the primary so it doesn't matter who wins now" is a privileged shit who honestly does not care about "equality for all" because it's very clear many more will suffer under Trump than Biden. This is you saying you don't care how many other people you have to sacrifice as long as you get your way--and the dumb thing is you're going to be even further away from getting "your way" if Trump wins.

It's like vegetarianism. It's a nice, healthy stance but ultimately it's one of privilege that far from everyone can afford to follow. Some vegetarians understand that and just advocate for healthier, more environmentally sustainable choices where reasonably available and others think everyone who isn't a vegetarian is a fucking monster.

And what do you think the Democrats in government will do about if you're right, if Trump wins because he ratfucked the process? You think Pelosi, Schumer, or Biden will do anything about it? They definitely fought back when Bush stole the election from Gore, right?

Liberals always side with fascists over the left.

[Endus]

This shit is unbelievable. All Biden had to do was support literally any progressive policy like Medicare for All or even legalizing weed to win over left leaning independents, he didn't even need to get it done, just lie about it and say he supports it, and he couldn't even do that. And now he's going to lose the election and they're gonna blame it on Bernie supporters and BLM protesters. But he was the "most electable" guys!

Doing so would push away the centrists like the blue dog democrats.

The Democrats have never been an ideological-lockstep one-message party. They're a big-tent party. Progressives are welcome, but they're not the only voices at the table, and progressives who expect that are unreasonable and not interested in political relevancy.

Progressives have far more chance of gaining ground on particular bills with a Biden administration in power, than a Trump administration, and that's really all that's being discussed, in a Presidential election.

Speaking as a progressive who's probably way more fuckin' progressive than most American progressives, incrementalism is the only way forward. It's a marathon, not a sprint. Throwing a hissy fit because you didn't get everything you wanted right now is childish nonsense. Getting real tired of American "progressives" whose mindset's pretty much exactly like those of a Trump voter in 2016.

And before you say "I don't agree with Trump", I'm speaking to the "burn it all down, politics is for babies, I want empty messages that sound nice rather than an opportunity to work for change, because work is hard and I just want to be angry about things." That mindset. It was a bad look for Trump voters in 2016, and it doesn't look any better when American progressives put on that MAGA hat.

[PhaelixWW]

This shit is unbelievable. All Biden had to do was support literally any progressive policy like Medicare for All or even legalizing weed to win over left leaning independents, he didn't even need to get it done, just lie about it and say he supports it, and he couldn't even do that. And now he's going to lose the election and they're gonna blame it on Bernie supporters and BLM protesters. But he was the "most electable" guys!

RCP averages:

AUGUST 30, 2016

WI: Clinton +9.3 Clinton +4.4 (21% undecided)
PA: Clinton +7.6 (14.4% undecided)
NC: Clinton +1.3 Trump +0.3 (14.7% undecided)
FL: Clinton +3.6 (15.0% undecided)
MI: Clinton +8.6 (21.8% undecided)
OH: Clinton +3.2 (17.2% undecided)

AUGUST 30, 2020

WI: Biden +3.5 (7.5% undecided)
PA: Biden +4.7 (6.7% undecided)
NC: Trump +0.3 (5.7% undecided)
FL: Biden +3.7 (5.7% undecided)
MI: Biden +2.6 (8.0% undecided)
OH: Biden +2.3 (8.3% undecided)

So... some of that was just wrong, and it completely ignores the fact that there were many more undecideds at this point in 2016. A late smear campaign by the Trump administration swayed enough of the undecideds into his favor at the last moment. People are much more aware of Trump's shenanigans now and are far, far less likely to think of him as the lesser of two evils.

Also lol let's keep going after Republicans guys what could go wrong?

Only 5% of Republicans say they’re voting for Joe Biden.

Right now that’s lower than the 8% of Republicans who voted for Obama in 2008, 6% of Republicans who voted for Obama in 2012, and 7% of Republicans who voted for Hillary Clinton.

I'd be willing to bet real money that that's because the people who would normally identify as Republican but still vote for Biden don't consider themselves Republican anymore. Unlike in the past, where people might temporarily vote outside their party for an election, I think Trump has done real, lasting damage to the Republican party's rolls.

[Flower Milk]

So... some of that was just wrong, and it completely ignores the fact that there were many more undecideds at this point in 2016. A late smear campaign by the Trump administration swayed enough of the undecideds into his favor at the last moment. People are much more aware of Trump's shenanigans now and are far, far less likely to think of him as the lesser of two evils.



I'd be willing to bet real money that that's because the people who would normally identify as Republican but still vote for Biden don't consider themselves Republican anymore. Unlike in the past, where people might temporarily vote outside their party for an election, I think Trump has done real, lasting damage to the Republican party's rolls.

Not true, if you had bothered to open up the tweet I linked, that is addressed right below it:

https://twitter.com/_waleedshahid/st...87995871789061

In August 2016, 41% of voters identified as Republican / GOP-leaners and 48% identified as Democrats / Dem-leaners.

In August 2020, 42% of voters identify as Republicans / GOP-leaners 48% of voters identiy as Democrats / Dem-leaners.

The Republicans and Independents who normally vote for Republicans still view themselves as Republicans/Republican leaning. Over and over again we hear about how "Trump has divided this country more than ever", but yet Democrats still believe the key to victory is trying to win over Republican voters who can't be won over. The people that can be won over are left leaning Independents by supporting left leaning policies, which is why Biden is lagging behind Trump with Independent voters. Because he refuses to support left leaning policies. This strategy of trying to court Republicans is futile and not based in reality, and is a con cooked up by Republicans like The Lincoln Project to get Democratic donors to give them money. It's working.

Doing so would push away the centrists like the blue dog democrats.

The Democrats have never been an ideological-lockstep one-message party. They're a big-tent party. Progressives are welcome, but they're not the only voices at the table, and progressives who expect that are unreasonable and not interested in political relevancy.

Progressives have far more chance of gaining ground on particular bills with a Biden administration in power, than a Trump administration, and that's really all that's being discussed, in a Presidential election.

Speaking as a progressive who's probably way more fuckin' progressive than most American progressives, incrementalism is the only way forward. It's a marathon, not a sprint. Throwing a hissy fit because you didn't get everything you wanted right now is childish nonsense. Getting real tired of American "progressives" whose mindset's pretty much exactly like those of a Trump voter in 2016.

And before you say "I don't agree with Trump", I'm speaking to the "burn it all down, politics is for babies, I want empty messages that sound nice rather than an opportunity to work for change, because work is hard and I just want to be angry about things." That mindset. It was a bad look for Trump voters in 2016, and it doesn't look any better when American progressives put on that MAGA hat.

80%+ of Democrats support Medicare for All, and that includes "centrist blue dog Democrats". 60% of Independents support it, and 40% of Republicans.

[Thelxi]

I'll just be the person to trigger people and point out a few things about the protests since I'm seeing a lot of denial and rationalizing.

The protesting is good for Trump because:

-It makes for great and highly aggressive propaganda, which is easy to spin and exaggerate as needed. "Defund the police" is the best punchline they could've wished for.
-This propaganda does not only feed his rock-hard base, but reaches anyone with some proximity to the protesting.
-It allows all the dark forces of the right to strategically sneak in and make things as violent as needed.
-Trump has a degree of control over the protesting itself and how it is perceived.

The protesting is bad for Biden because:
-He has no control over it or how it is perceived.
-There is an inevitable perception of the media and Biden "downplaying" any severity.
-He is forced to play a defensive game, walking a tightrope trying to placate everyone without pissing off anyone.

The protesting is good for Biden because:
-It is happening "under Trump's watch". I had to include this for comedy.

The people targeted by Trump here are the people who might superficially voice some support for a social justice movement, but clutch their pearls the moment they get in the proximity of a protest let alone a riot. Many of these people are actually part of the problem, and probably wouldn't be your friend. They are also not very informed or politically passionate, but are nonetheless inclined to reject Trumpism and vote for Biden.

Trump is relentlessly courting these people with fear and lies, while Biden is asking them politely to do the right thing and maybe pay more taxes. Whether you can imagine these people existing or mattering is irrelevant; both Biden and Trump are hard at work trying to get their votes.

And make no mistake, this is not just Trump but all of the GOP that is seizing on this. You'll have a hard time finding a republican senator who isn't using images of violence and a promise of "democrats will defund the police, I the republican will put a stop to this" in their ads. The logic is not that democrats caused the chaos, but that they hate law enforcement.

[beanman12345]

Liberals always side with fascists over the left.

This doesn't make any sense. if your argument is the left isn't voting because they aren't getting what they want, they are literally not taking a side, and therefore complacent with the fascists.

[Benggaul]

And what do you think the Democrats in government will do about if you're right, if Trump wins because he ratfucked the process? You think Pelosi, Schumer, or Biden will do anything about it? They definitely fought back when Bush stole the election from Gore, right?

Liberals always side with fascists over the left.

Biden is already meeting and working with both Bernie and Warren to discuss policy change. Pelosi and Schumer would go right along with it, and I know this because they've been passing bills in the House for the past couple years that would go a long way towards addressing the concerns of the average American but they're all being stalled in the Senate by the GOP's McConnell.

The last line of your post is yet more bullshit you just like saying to make yourself feel better about allowing others to suffer for you.

[DingDongKing]

Trump will win because Biden/Democrats are offering nothing to improve people's materials conditions, which means things like Medicare for All. People who got coronavirus will be in medical debt, they will suffer from medical problems after having COVID and it will be expensive. Supporting Medicare for All during a global pandemic is like the bare minimum at this point, and Democrats voted it down as part of their party platform right before the convention. They're offering people "restoring the soul of the nation" and wondering why millions of people who are unemployed and about to be evicted from their homes aren't buying it.

You don't defeat fascism with neoliberalism, you defeat fascism by improving people's material conditions so they don't turn to fascist ideology. Democrats shit the bed and they aren't going to save us.

If not putting M4A on their platform is why independents leaning left either don't vote for Biden or vote for Trump, then they weren't really looking to vote for Biden at all anyway. So at that juncture, they were looking for a permission structure to not vote for Biden or vote for Trump.

Whilst I agree that M4A is necessary during the Pandemic, the overriding stigma amongst Centre-Left/Centre/Centre-Right is still, 'gosh darn my taxes will go up'. Furthermore, if people can't get off their arse and fight fascism unless they get M4A, then they're complicit regardless.

Furthermore, Biden's platform is uniformly the most progressive platform Dems have run on in freaking ages. So please, sit down. You're just looking for a reason to blame the Dems for losing and are engaging in bad faith arguments in order to do so.

[Flower Milk]

This doesn't make any sense. if your argument is the left isn't voting because they aren't getting what they want, they are literally not taking a side, and therefore complacent with the fascists.

I'm talking about how Biden is on a clear path to lose based on his polling in battleground states. And how Trump is ratfucking the election, and Democrats will do absolutely nothing to stop it, even if Trump has won and it's clear he stole the election, they will still do nothing. I will bet you $100 on that. And that is how liberals always side with fascists over the left. Corporations also always side with fascists over the left, because the alternative is less profit. If you're not going to fight back against fascism when it comes to your country, then you are siding with the fascists, it's that simple. And if you think the best thing you can be doing right now is calling left leaning Independents "privileged" and shaming them instead of trying to get them to vote for Biden, good luck with that.

If not putting M4A on their platform is why independents leaning left either don't vote for Biden or vote for Trump, then they weren't really looking to vote for Biden at all anyway. So at that juncture, they were looking for a permission structure to not vote for Biden or vote for Trump.

Whilst I agree that M4A is necessary during the Pandemic, the overriding stigma amongst Centre-Left/Centre/Centre-Right is still, 'gosh darn my taxes will go up'. Furthermore, if people can't get off their arse and fight fascism unless they get M4A, then it's just a shitshow regardless.

It's not though, 70% of Americans support Medicare for All. The only people worried about their taxes going up are rich people, the very same people who fed you these lies about how people don't actually want Medicare for All on their corporate owned media outlets. Medicare for All costs Americans less money than our current healthcare system, and 68,000 people won't die every year needlessly because they can't afford health insurance. You even agree that Medicare for All is necessary, have you ever actually met anyone who disagrees with you that isn't rich? Is there a single person in this thread that disagrees that isn't rich?

[DingDongKing]

I didn't mention anything about the left not voting. I'm talking about how Biden is on a clear path to lose based on his polling in battleground states. And how Trump is ratfucking the election, and Democrats will do absolutely nothing to stop it, even if Trump has won and it's clear he stole the election, they will still do nothing. I will bet you $100 on that. And that is how liberals always side with fascists over the left. Corporations also always side with fascists over the left, because the alternative is less profit. If you're not going to fight back against fascism when it comes to your country, then you are siding with the fascists, it's that simple.

That's a lot of assumption. You're assuming he'll lose because he's lower than Clinton was this time in 2016. You're forgetting the inevitable stink of the email leak and the effect it had on the election between September 2016 and November 2016.

As far as Trump ratfucking the election is concerned along with inevitable Russian interference and Dems not doing anything about it, newsflash - the GOP controls the Senate. Mitch McConnell is going to ramrod any attempts to 'do'.

In regards to Corporations siding with Fascism, that element has nothing to do with Democrats and their lack of desire to contest the election.

Your entire narrative is flawed and ignoring one simple fact - 40-50% of the US sides with Trump for their own shitty reasons. That plus the rampant levels of corruption in the Trump Administration is why the US is where it is right now, along with Senate Control.

It isn't because the Democrats aren't strong enough or Biden isn't leftist enough. So again, please. Sit down.

[Flower Milk]

That's a lot of assumption. You're assuming he'll lose because he's lower than Clinton was this time in 2016. You're forgetting the inevitable stink of the email leak and the effect it had on the election between September 2016 and November 2016.

As far as Trump ratfucking the election is concerned along with inevitable Russian interference and Dems not doing anything about it, newsflash - the GOP controls the Senate. Mitch McConnell is going to ramrod any attempts to 'do'.

In regards to Corporations siding with Fascism, that element has nothing to do with Democrats and their lack of desire to contest the election. So again, please. Sit down.

So do you think the numbers for Biden in battleground states aren't alarming at all, or his bad numbers with Independents, or how Trump is ratfucking the election and Democrats are powerless to do anything about it because the GOP controls the Senate, so we all should just "sit down" and just do nothing while fascism comes to America? What do you think we should be doing???

No fucking thank you. What a privileged take. Let me remind you that it was the communists and socialists who were put in camps first, so I'm not just gonna "sit down" and shut up when that happens, thanks.

[DingDongKing]

It's not though, 70% of Americans support Medicare for All. The only people worried about their taxes going up are rich people, the very same people who fed you these lies about how people don't actually want Medicare for All on their corporate owned media outlets. Medicare for All costs Americans less money than our current healthcare system, and 68,000 people won't die every year needlessly because they can't afford health insurance. You even agree that Medicare for All is necessary, have you ever actually met anyone who disagrees with you that isn't rich? Is there a single person in this thread that disagrees that isn't rich?

Former Vice President Joe Biden suggested that he would veto the universal health-care legislation known as “Medicare for All” championed by his Democratic presidential primary rival Sen. Bernie Sanders, citing costs.

“Nancy Pelosi gets a version of it through the House of Representatives. It comes to your desk. Do you veto it?” MSNBC host Lawrence O’Donnell asked Biden during an interview Monday night.

“I would veto anything that delays providing the security and the certainty of health care being available now,” Biden responded. “If they got that through in by some miracle or there’s an epiphany that occurred and some miracle occurred that said, ‘OK, it’s passed,’ then you got to look at the cost.”

Biden added: “I want to know, how did they find $35 trillion? What is that doing? Is it going to significantly raise taxes on the middle class, which it will? What’s going to happen?”

This isn't a 'fuck no, I won't do it'. He's well aware that the first goal is get affordable and realistic healthcare in place NOW.

Campaigning on M4A would require House + Senate + Admin control for the Dems. In the event they can flip the Senate, M4A is a long term goal.

Why isn't it a short term goal? Because to quote Mango Unchained, 'I never knew healthcare was this complicated'.

[Benggaul]

"The fascists put the communists and socialists in camps first, so I'm going to sit back and complain about liberals and let the actual fascists do it again!"

[DingDongKing]

So do you think the numbers for Biden in battleground states aren't alarming at all, or his bad numbers with Independents, or how Trump is ratfucking the election and Democrats are powerless to do anything about it because the GOP controls the Senate, so we all should just "sit down" and just do nothing while fascism comes to America? What do you think we should be doing???

No fucking thank you. What a privileged take. Let me remind you that it was the communists and socialists who were put in camps first, so I'm not just gonna "sit down" and shut up when that happens, thanks.

I've clearly said you can't blame Democrats for the election being ramrodded if they're doing as much as they can already. Beyond a point, the fact is they don't have Senate Control. They're going to get stonewalled.

As far as Biden's numbers are concerned, they've steadily kept him in the lead against the incumbent. That's a start. There's 60 days to go. Let's see how his campaign does. I'm not his campaign. Direct your ire elsewhere.

All that said, you're twisting words to suit your own narrative. I won't be engaging with you further. Thanks.