Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[Flower Milk]

National polls don't matter much, as a reminder. State level polls, specifically in swing states, matter infinitely more.

When you think about race distribution in swing states like Michigan for example, and you break down national polls by race, yeah they kinda do, unfortunately. This poll does not look good.

[Benggaul]

I think someone mentioned that Biden needs to be saying these kinds of things. So, there you go.

They've now pivoted to "he should have said it SOONER and nobody at the DNC talked about it!" because if the right is good at anything it's moving goalposts.

[Zan15]

If this poll is accurate and Trump really has 19% of the black vote then we are fucked and he is gonna win by a landslide. Holy shit.

lol "if" that poll is accurate...holy hell there is no way its even in the ballpark of double digits.


oh

The August National Emerson College poll was conducted August 30-31, 2020. The sample consisted of likely Democratic, Republican, and Independent voters, n=1567, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/-2.4 percentage points.

The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, party affiliation, race and region based on 2016 voter turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity, and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced.

Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines (n=770) and an online panel provided by MTurk (n=797).



LOL landlines...no cell....no MOE on race....

Ya junk poll.

[cubby]

They've now pivoted to "he should have said it SOONER and nobody at the DNC talked about it!" because if the right is good at anything it's moving goalposts.

That isn't even moving goalposts, it's like shifting stadiums for a different game. Has the right always been this clinically insane, or have the MAGAhats brought them to a pinnacle?

[Bodakane]

"More cops have died this year from COVID than those on patrol." -- Joe Biden

[Flower Milk]

lol "if" that poll is accurate...holy hell there is no way its even in the ballpark of double digits.

Here is their methodology: https://emersonpolling.reportablenew...ty-conventions

If it was landlines then it's likely they mostly got older black voters, which is still surprising because that's who Biden leads with over younger black voters without landlines. It was weighted for gender and age as well, though. Either way, if Trump has 19% support with mostly older black voters that's still a huge loss for Biden good god.

And just for the record, FiveThirtyEight gives Emerson an A- grade for pollster ratings, so it might be relatively accurate.

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Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh please god just keep him in the basement

https://twitter.com/besf0rt/status/1300527947586174976

[Zan15]

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/...27854359318530



If this poll is accurate and Trump really has 19% of the black vote then we are fucked and he is gonna win by a landslide. Holy shit.

https://morningconsult.com/2020/08/2...-trump-bounce/

Trump left the convention with a slightly worse standing among voters of color, trailing Biden by 28 points among Hispanic voters (33 percent to 61 percent) and 74 points among Black voters (9 percent to 83 percent).


https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/trcdohan..._crosstabs.pdf

Biden 75%
Trump 11%
Undecided 12%


https://justthenews.com/sites/defaul...20-08/pect.pdf

Trump 7%
Biden 85%


https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-amer...ost-convention

Biden 77%
Trump 11%


i mean i can keep going if you want

[Edge-]

Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh please god just keep him in the basement

https://twitter.com/besf0rt/status/1300527947586174976

Biden stays quiet

Progressives: WHY WON'T BIDEN GO OUT THERE AND FIGHT!? WHY IS HE HIDING IN THE BASEMENT!?

Biden goes out and fumbles over words

Progressives: JESUS CHRIST BIDEN GO BACK TO YOUR BASEMENT, THIS IS PROOF THAT HE IS COMPLETELY INCOMPETENT EVEN THOUGH HE ALSO GAVE A LENGTHY SPEECH A FEW WEEKS BACK WITHOUT SIMILAR PROBLEMS!

Man, this is why I'm glad I don't hang out on political/progressive Twitter.

[starlord]

Biden stays quiet

Progressives: WHY WON'T BIDEN GO OUT THERE AND FIGHT!? WHY IS HE HIDING IN THE BASEMENT!?

Biden goes out and fumbles over words

Progressives: JESUS CHRIST BIDEN GO BACK TO YOUR BASEMENT, THIS IS PROOF THAT HE IS COMPLETELY INCOMPETENT EVEN THOUGH HE ALSO GAVE A LENGTHY SPEECH A FEW WEEKS BACK WITHOUT SIMILAR PROBLEMS!

Man, this is why I'm glad I don't hang out on political/progressive Twitter.

shes just very concerned is all.

[Zan15]

Here is their methodology: https://emersonpolling.reportablenew...ty-conventions

If it was landlines then it's likely they mostly got older black voters, which is still surprising because that's who Biden leads with over younger black voters without landlines. It was weighted for gender and age as well, though. Either way, if Trump has 19% support with mostly older black voters that's still a huge loss for Biden good god.

And just for the record, FiveThirtyEight gives Emerson an A- grade for pollster ratings, so it might be relatively accurate.

A- rating as a pollster does not mean every poll done is A-

Even the best pollsters have outlier reports that snap back the next week.

Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh please god just keep him in the basement

https://twitter.com/besf0rt/status/1300527947586174976

So we got one clip from his most recent rally speech? i mean if that is the standard Trump should be committed after the last 3 outings.

"Thanks to advances we have pioneered, the fatality rate has been reduced by 80 percent since April." Instead, Trump said, "Thanks to advances, we have pioneered the fatality rate." Whoops.

Trump said he "profoundly" accepted this nomination for president of the United States, rather than "proudly." At another point, he should have said "personal protective equipment," but just uttered "personal" before trailing off

https://twitter.com/i/status/1299180475379048448

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shes just very concerned is all.

sad since no one supporting trump has seem to care about the half dozen fuck ups and fumbling he does per hour at his rallies.
have to give them credit for at least realizing these rallies are hard and they are old....

[cubby]

Biden stays quiet

Progressives: WHY WON'T BIDEN GO OUT THERE AND FIGHT!? WHY IS HE HIDING IN THE BASEMENT!?

Biden goes out and fumbles over words

Progressives: JESUS CHRIST BIDEN GO BACK TO YOUR BASEMENT, THIS IS PROOF THAT HE IS COMPLETELY INCOMPETENT EVEN THOUGH HE ALSO GAVE A LENGTHY SPEECH A FEW WEEKS BACK WITHOUT SIMILAR PROBLEMS!

Man, this is why I'm glad I don't hang out on political/progressive Twitter.

What's really amazing, is that people like @Flower Milk are vicitims of the Trump/Fox"News" false attacks on Biden. Everyone on earth makes gaffes - EVERYONE - but all anyone does with Biden is wait for the next one, and they push it out to the world, thinking somehow that helps.

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Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh please god just keep him in the basement

https://twitter.com/besf0rt/status/1300527947586174976

Why are you supporting Trump?

[Edge-]

What's really amazing, is that people like @Flower Milk are vicitims of the Trump/Fox"News" false attacks on Biden. Everyone on earth makes gaffes - EVERYONE - but all anyone does with Biden is wait for the next one, and they push it out to the world, thinking somehow that helps.

I mean, he stumbles over his words more than I'd like a POTUS to, his stutter seems to be back a bit in his older age. But like hell do I think it's remotely disqualifying, both considering the fact that the alternative is a guy who makes gaffes infinitely more often, and often with actual consequences, and the fact that I don't think anyone is voting for Biden on his ability to give a speech.

There's this weird notion that "non-progressives" fucking love everything about Biden, which is weird since there are vanishingly few people here who would say that Biden has always been their first choice in the primary. He's the compromise choice for almost all of us, and we can learn to live with and accept that. Doesn't mean he can't be criticized, but there's a difference between disagreeing with his policies or him telling a weird story about kids touching his blonde legs when he was a life guard, and "OOOHHHHH HE STUMBLED OVER HIS WORDS HIS CANDIDACY IS OVER!" nonsense.

Biden's what we got. He's far from perfect. He's plenty flawed. He's not exciting for most of us. But I don't have to worry about him surrounding himself with unqualified sycophants and hiring college students who haven't even graduated for mid-senior level government positions. I won't have to wake up in the morning and check me phone to wonder, "What dumb thing has he tweeted out overnight/which official is in trouble for corruption now?" And to me, while I'd love to see us get on the progressive rail line sooner rather than later, I'll take departing the unhinged right rail line for a less exciting center line to get us closer towards that progressive line. Because the alternative is sticking on the unhinged right line and risking the switches being destroyed so that there isn't a chance to ever go to the progressive line.

[unfilteredJW]

I mean, he stumbles over his words more than I'd like a POTUS to, his stutter seems to be back a bit in his older age. But like hell do I think it's remotely disqualifying, both considering the fact that the alternative is a guy who makes gaffes infinitely more often, and often with actual consequences, and the fact that I don't think anyone is voting for Biden on his ability to give a speech.

There's this weird notion that "non-progressives" fucking love everything about Biden, which is weird since there are vanishingly few people here who would say that Biden has always been their first choice in the primary. He's the compromise choice for almost all of us, and we can learn to live with and accept that. Doesn't mean he can't be criticized, but there's a difference between disagreeing with his policies or him telling a weird story about kids touching his blonde legs when he was a life guard, and "OOOHHHHH HE STUMBLED OVER HIS WORDS HIS CANDIDACY IS OVER!" nonsense.

Biden's what we got. He's far from perfect. He's plenty flawed. He's not exciting for most of us. But I don't have to worry about him surrounding himself with unqualified sycophants and hiring college students who haven't even graduated for mid-senior level government positions. I won't have to wake up in the morning and check me phone to wonder, "What dumb thing has he tweeted out overnight/which official is in trouble for corruption now?" And to me, while I'd love to see us get on the progressive rail line sooner rather than later, I'll take departing the unhinged right rail line for a less exciting center line to get us closer towards that progressive line. Because the alternative is sticking on the unhinged right line and risking the switches being destroyed so that there isn't a chance to ever go to the progressive line.

It's the same projection Trump supporters suffer from.

They deify their leaders, and expect the other guys do too.

[Flower Milk]

Biden stays quiet

Progressives: WHY WON'T BIDEN GO OUT THERE AND FIGHT!? WHY IS HE HIDING IN THE BASEMENT!?

Biden goes out and fumbles over words

Progressives: JESUS CHRIST BIDEN GO BACK TO YOUR BASEMENT, THIS IS PROOF THAT HE IS COMPLETELY INCOMPETENT EVEN THOUGH HE ALSO GAVE A LENGTHY SPEECH A FEW WEEKS BACK WITHOUT SIMILAR PROBLEMS!

Man, this is why I'm glad I don't hang out on political/progressive Twitter.

I was joking but go off sis

[Edge-]

I was joking but go off sis

Hard to tell when the folks you link to appear to be very serious in the position you expressed here.

[Flower Milk]

Why are you supporting Trump?

Love getting my head bashed in by Trump supporting cops on a nightly basis only to come home to liberals calling me a Trump supporter feels great man

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Hard to tell when the folks you link to appear to be very serious in the position you expressed here.

The very serious position that being afraid of gaffes like this will lose Biden the election? I mean yes I do feel that way, hence my "ahhhhhhhhh", but also I was joking when I said keep him in the basement.

[Edge-]

The very serious position that being afraid of gaffes like this will lose Biden the election? I mean yes I do feel that way, hence my "ahhhhhhhhh", but also I was joking when I said keep him in the basement.

advocate for biden if you want, but please stop lying that he's even remotely competent to be the f*cking president

Like this from the dude you linked.

Like your post telling him to stay in the basement, even if it was a joke like this as it's painfully similar to the rhetoric the Trump camp uses. Which I assume is unintentional, but also not terribly productive as a criticism.

Which also follow calls from progressives to tell Biden to "get out there". My aim isn't to "Attack" you or your post, I'm just tired of the progressive "argument" where everything Biden does is wrong no matter what.

[Zan15]

Cherry picking a moment like that in an otherwise good speech is just pathetically sad.

Anything to complain about someone you were never going to vote for anyway....

meanwhile they ignore what trump has done so far during his press conference as far as being incompetent and bumbling....just today so far....

[Benggaul]

Frankly I'm just tired of "I/He was joking" being the constant explanation for saying stupid shit.

[Flower Milk]

Like this from the dude you linked.

Like your post telling him to stay in the basement, even if it was a joke like this as it's painfully similar to the rhetoric the Trump camp uses. Which I assume is unintentional, but also not terribly productive as a criticism.

Which also follow calls from progressives to tell Biden to "get out there". My aim isn't to "Attack" you or your post, I'm just tired of the progressive "argument" where everything Biden does is wrong no matter what.

Let me let you in on a secret: it's because we're fucking terrified he's gonna lose the election, and whenever we see Biden/Democrats fucking up, we get mad at them that they're fucking up such an important election. Is it possible for you to sympathize with that position at all?