Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[DarkTZeratul]

What's a good-faith explanation for ~75% Trump win prob. conditional on winning CA?

If Trump somehow manages to win California, I'd say that sends a pretty clear message that Democrats have failed catastrophically. That plus its large number of EC votes that Trump desperately needs to get from somewhere to achieve victory means a 75% chance to win if he gets CA makes sense. It's just obscenely unlikely that he wins California.

[Rasulis]

There is a major flaw with CDC eviction moratorium. It is not automatic. It requires tenants to fill in a form that they can download from the CDC stating that options besides being homeless or moving in with other people in close quarters. Many renters facing eviction don’t know about the ban or understand the rules or their rights.

For example, Houston is currently one of the ground zero cities for renter evictions.

Houston Public Media sent a reporter to four different courthouses last week to observe about 100 eviction cases, and found that only one renter was able to use the CDC order to block their eviction. So in 99% of those cases the order was having no effect at all.

Also, Harris County eviction dashboard.

[PhaelixWW]

Biden no longer has double digit leads. I would say the odds of Biden winning are 50%, and the odds of Trump winning are 50%. The election will be close and tense.

Biden has never had an aggregate double digit lead. And he's aggregately polling over 50%.

There's still time left before the election, obviously, but he's nowhere close to 50/50 at the moment.

[Rasulis]

If Trump somehow manages to win California, I'd say that sends a pretty clear message that Democrats have failed catastrophically. That plus its large number of EC votes that Trump desperately needs to get from somewhere to achieve victory means a 75% chance to win if he gets CA makes sense. It's just obscenely unlikely that he wins California.

Basically when hell freezes over. Between February 18 and July 3, GOP added 80,000 new voters and Democrats registered 330,000 additional voters. Democratic party in July represents 46% of the state’s voters, up from 45% in February. GOP and No Party are both at 24%. The last poll for District 50, previously Duncan Hunter district, showed Issa leading Campa-Najjar by 1 pt. wit 10% still undecided. The polls showing the race tightening from Issa 4 pts. to 3pts. and then 1 pt. advantage. It will be a very close race.

[Shadowferal]

50/50?
No surprise.
The possibility of Trump pulling through is aggravated by the fact that there are still too many unregistered eligible voters.

[Edge-]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/14/stev...nce-sheet.html

‘Now is not the time to worry’ about the fiscal deficit or the Fed’s balance sheet, Mnuchin says

AND HE'S FUCKIN RIGHT

The time for that was the past 3 years when Republicans were blowing up the annual deficit and the national debt.

Right now, despite Republicans continued pearl clutching, is not the time to worry about it. This is a fucking pandemic, and it's precisely the time you print money and go into debt to head off worse longterm financial repercussions.

Or we could be doing more of this had Republicans not completely ratfucked the economy for the past 3 years, weakening it so it was less resilient come an economic crisis, and then spent the past 6 months pearl clutching about the fucking deficit/debt suddenly.

[Zan15]

If the polls are accurate and stay the same as they are now, like I said, you will not be disappointed.

The audio recordings and videos, deal with his stupid statements mainly. No argument from me on that. But I am not voting for his personality or failure to respond correctly verbally. After all, Bill Clinton was popular. In spite of him taking advantage of one of the WH workers with his position of power, to get sexual benefits.

and yet you will fall in line with every statement made about Biden and his "stupid statements", mental status and rumors about his "personality"

Can't ever be honest can you.
You are voting for him because you are a republican (hiding behind independent label) and are a one issue guy. You somehow have the capability to ignore everything else that he has fucked up just because of those reasons.

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If Trump somehow manages to win California, I'd say that sends a pretty clear message that Democrats have failed catastrophically. That plus its large number of EC votes that Trump desperately needs to get from somewhere to achieve victory means a 75% chance to win if he gets CA makes sense. It's just obscenely unlikely that he wins California.

LOL that's like a democrat winning Texas, never going to happen.
Republicans know that, that is why they support breaking CA up into 4 states the same way they "rig" every district they have the power too.

[Benggaul]

and yet you will fall in line with every statement made about Biden and his "stupid statements", mental status and rumors about his "personality"

Can't ever be honest can you.
You are voting for him because you are a republican (hiding behind independent label) and are a one issue guy. You somehow have the capability to ignore everything else that he has fucked up just because of those reasons.

So they claim, yet despite being shown how Trump is objectively terrible at the one issue they say is most important to them they're voting for him anyway. In other words they're a liar.

[Rasulis]

and yet you will fall in line with every statement made about Biden and his "stupid statements", mental status and rumors about his "personality"

Can't ever be honest can you.
You are voting for him because you are a republican (hiding behind independent label) and are a one issue guy. You somehow have the capability to ignore everything else that he has fucked up just because of those reasons.

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LOL that's like a democrat winning Texas, never going to happen.
Republicans know that, that is why they support breaking CA up into 4 states the same way they "rig" every district they have the power too.

Democrats has a better chance of winning TX than GOP winning CA. There is a good chance that GOP will lose two more congressional seats in CA in November.

[AntiFascistVoter]

Former Trump official Gary Cohn is an undecided voter... oh Politico, you're being silly!



Former Trump economic adviser: ‘I honestly haven’t made up my mind’ on 2020 vote
“I’m really eager to see an economic debate between the two of them. I actually vote on issues,” said Gary Cohn.

Let's play a game! Who is Gary's main on MMO-C? There's a ton a of self-reported rich guys that benefited from those tax cuts here.

[Benggaul]

Ron Johnson, one of several GOP lawmakers that spent Independence Day in Moscow, is now making noise that "We're going to learn about Vice President Biden's unfitness for office" with specific reference to Hunter Biden's ties to the Ukraine.

Yeah, no.
1) Hunter isn't running.
2) I don't really want to hear anything about problematic entanglements from people who have demonstrated very thoroughly that they themselves are exceedingly compromised.
3) Nobody is undecided at this point and nothing is going to change anybody's mind. Especially not something as small as this compared to, say, 200k people dying because Trump lied and Trump being totally okay with Russian bounties on US troops.

[Edge-]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/14/us/caputo-virus.html

Michael Caputo, the assistant secretary of health for public affairs, told a Facebook audience without evidence that left-wing hit squads were being trained for insurrection, and he accused C.D.C. scientists of “sedition.”

Again, this election isn't even about policy or ideology or anything like that.

It's about having a White House not packed with unqualified loonie bin nutters like Caputo, who apparently think that there's a secret cabal of CDC scientists plotting "sedition".

And that there are left-wing hit squads being trained all over the country, and Michael Reinoehl, the Portland murderer that was killed when police tried to apprehend him, was a part of this.

Reminder: Caputo has precisely zero health care experience.

“I don’t want to talk about death anymore,” he said, adding, “You’re not waking up every morning and talking about dead Americans.”

It must be really hard on him to wake up and need to talk about his administrations failures that lead to around 1,000 Americans dying of the coronavirus every day. I hope the families of those dead due to the administrations incompetent will remember this and be considered of how difficult this is for those leading the failed response.

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/video...a7c_video.html

One man speaks to the importance of acknowledging and taking climate change seriously in addition to better forest management.

Trump's response to record heat in CA: "It'll get cooler, you just watch."

No fuckin shit it will, fall is coming you fucking ignorant simpleton. The earth will still be spinning tomorrow and water will still be wet, if we're just saying pointless stupid shit.

When told that the gentleman wishes science agreed with his sentiment -

"I don't think science knows"

He says with a smirk as if tens of thousands of people are evacuated or under evacuation threat, buildings and homes haven't been destroyed, the air quality isn't garbage, and first-responders aren't desperately trying to contain multiple massive fires.

Science does know. Donald Trump just wants to get as many "liberals" on the West Coast killed or suffering as possible because he doesn't care.

This weather is eventually going to come for the rest of the country, maybe not fires but increased flooding, more severe tornadoes and storms etc. And when Republicans start realizing it, we'll point back to decades of warnings and remind them that we could have addressed these issues at a bargain price, with some pain, decades ago if they'd listened.

Instead you still have Republicans calling climate change a "hoax" or treating it like it's a problem for future generations to deal with and isn't already causing global impacts.

Again

THE ELECTION IS NOT ABOUT POLICY OR IDEOLOGY

IT IS ABOUT BASIC FACTS, BASIC DECENCY, BASIC HUMANITY

[Machismo]

You know you've reached peak horseshoe, when the biggest carriers of water for Trump, are self-proclaimed "leftists."

I find it odd that anyone would think that Rogan, a noted Trump supporter, would be a sensible moderator.

[Edge-]

I find it odd that anyone would think that Rogan, a noted Trump supporter, would be a sensible moderator.

Even ignoring that there's nothing in his history to suggest he's remotely up to the task. We saw how Alex Trebeck failed miserably, and he's far more qualified and informed than a putz like Rogan. Rogan's got a massively popular and successful talk show where guests can come on and air whatever unhinged nonsense they want without challenge, he should stick with that.

[Machismo]

Even ignoring that there's nothing in his history to suggest he's remotely up to the task. We saw how Alex Trebeck failed miserably, and he's far more qualified and informed than a putz like Rogan. Rogan's got a massively popular and successful talk show where guests can come on and air whatever unhinged nonsense they want without challenge, he should stick with that.

Now, Rogan knows how to pander to an audience, and pander to his guests... but he's not that great of an interviewer, and he's fucking terrible at holding people to account for what they say.

[unfilteredJW]

"Please take us seriously, guys!"

Posts video about Joe Rogan moderating a debate and mentions Bernie.

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Now, Rogan knows how to pander to an audience, and pander to his guests... but he's not that great of an interviewer, and he's fucking terrible at holding people to account for what they say.

It's basically a conversation you'd hear two guys having beers at a bar would have.

Can be great depending on the guest (Recent Bill Burr one was good).

[Machismo]

"Please take us seriously, guys!"

Posts video about Joe Rogan moderating a debate and mentions Bernie.

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It's basically a conversation you'd hear two guys having beers at a bar would have.

Can be great depending on the guest (Recent Bill Burr one was good).

The issue is that Rogan would be terrible at moderating a debate. In essence, it would be a free-flow platform, with an addled stream of consciousness, let by a guy who... let's be honest, is a fucking bonehead.

[AntiFascistVoter]

Newsflash: "disaffected progressives" were NEVER going to vote for Biden. The freakout on horseshoe left is Biden seems to have forged a viable path to the presidency WITHOUT them.

Soon as Bernie dropped out, the Patreon numbers for Chapo and TYT started dropping.

It's weird how these cosplay socialist, chose a bunch of wealthy podcasters to be their standard bearers.

We really need a thread about cosplay socialism.

[Edge-]

and from what was I heard before each campaign reached out to go on his podcast after Bernie had his interview.

I'm not seeing anything backing up that either campaign gave a shit about Joe Rogan and his podcast before, or after Sanders went on. It seems that both campaigns pretty rightfully pegged him as politically irrelevant despite his large audience of listeners.

[Kaleredar]

I'm not seeing anything backing up that either campaign gave a shit about Joe Rogan and his podcast before, or after Sanders went on. It seems that both campaigns pretty rightfully pegged him as politically irrelevant despite his large audience of listeners.

If even Trump’s campaign thinks a talking head’s venue is “beneath” them, then you know there’s a problem.


More to point, I know Donald trump has done a lot to tarnish, sully, and generally besmirch the office of the presidency, but we don’t need to drag it down even further by pitching out presidential debates to podcast venues because some popular schmuck hosts it.