Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[Thekri]

The US and China have been ramping up tensions in the straight of Taiwan, to a pretty extreme degree. How much of this is directly tied to the election is... unknown, but it is certainly being considered by both sides. These sort of things are inherently political, and we haven't seen this level of escalation since the 90s.

I don't think anything major is going to come out of this, but these sort of standoffs are dangerous, and a Taiwanese fighter taking down a PRC bomber would be really nasty. It really feels like most of this is just a ramp up for the benefit of the US election, with China wanting to show Trump as weak, and Trump wanting to look strong.

[Kaleredar]

The US and China have been ramping up tensions in the straight of Taiwan, to a pretty extreme degree. How much of this is directly tied to the election is... unknown, but it is certainly being considered by both sides. These sort of things are inherently political, and we haven't seen this level of escalation since the 90s.

I don't think anything major is going to come out of this, but these sort of standoffs are dangerous, and a Taiwanese fighter taking down a PRC bomber would be really nasty. It really feels like most of this is just a ramp up for the benefit of the US election, with China wanting to show Trump as weak, and Trump wanting to look strong.

I don’t really know why China would want to portray Trump as weak and hurt us reelection chances; replacing him with Biden might mean they have someone actually competent to contend with on a geopolitical scale as president of the US. Trump might speak a big game about hating China, but it’s not like he’s actually done anything effective to hurt them geopolitically. And actions speak far louder that words.

It’s the same with Russia. Why would Russia support trumps election/reelection? Because they want the US to be the strongest nation possible and they’re doing them a solid? No, it’s because they know Trump is a weak, divisive and ineffective leader who’s tenure as president allows Russia to slip into the power vacuum cracks caused by America’s faltering under trumps administration.

[Xarkan]

I don’t really know why China would want to portray Trump as weak and hurt us reelection chances; replacing him with Biden might mean they have someone actually competent to contend with on a geopolitical scale as president of the US. Trump might speak a big game about hating China, but it’s not like he’s actually done anything effective to hurt them geopolitically. And actions speak far louder that words.

It’s the same with Russia. Why would Russia support trumps election/reelection? Because they want the US to be the strongest nation possible and they’re doing them a solid? No, it’s because they know Trump is a weak, divisive and ineffective leader who’s tenure as president allows Russia to slip into the power vacuum cracks caused by America’s faltering under trumps administration.

Perhaps China values predictability..

[TACOshake]

A missed lesson: 2016 was the ceiling, not the floor, for "anti-establishment" candidates.
2020: Anti-establishment candidates run campaigns to their base, alienating all otherl voters.

‘It’s a big, big swing’: Trump loses ground with white voters
The president is running well behind his 2016 pace with the demographic that sent him to the White House.

[Thekri]

I don’t really know why China would want to portray Trump as weak and hurt us reelection chances; replacing him with Biden might mean they have someone actually competent to contend with on a geopolitical scale as president of the US. Trump might speak a big game about hating China, but it’s not like he’s actually done anything effective to hurt them geopolitically. And actions speak far louder that words.

It’s the same with Russia. Why would Russia support trumps election/reelection? Because they want the US to be the strongest nation possible and they’re doing them a solid? No, it’s because they know Trump is a weak, divisive and ineffective leader who’s tenure as president allows Russia to slip into the power vacuum cracks caused by America’s faltering under trumps administration.

Russia would love to see Trump reelected. China very much doesn't want it to happen. China's entire strategy revolves around economic growth and diplomatic normalization. Biden isn't likely to peruse trade wars, and he is very unlikely to pressure them much on Human Rights issues (Because realistically there isn't much he could achieve there). Biden is "Normal" and China was doing great with "Normal".

Russia hates the post cold war status quo. They love Trump disrupting the world order, because they gain from that. China doesn't.

[Antiganon]

General summation is that he's a right-wing conspiracy theorist.

And flat earther.

[Belize]

The US and China have been ramping up tensions in the straight of Taiwan, to a pretty extreme degree. How much of this is directly tied to the election is... unknown, but it is certainly being considered by both sides. These sort of things are inherently political, and we haven't seen this level of escalation since the 90s.

I don't think anything major is going to come out of this, but these sort of standoffs are dangerous, and a Taiwanese fighter taking down a PRC bomber would be really nasty. It really feels like most of this is just a ramp up for the benefit of the US election, with China wanting to show Trump as weak, and Trump wanting to look strong.

After Hong Kong it's only normal China is setting its eyes on Taiwan.

It's the last major thorn in its side, politically speaking.

[Thekri]

After Hong Kong it's only normal China is setting its eyes on Taiwan.

It's the last major thorn in its side, politically speaking.

Not really, China is probably fine leaving it alone. It just can't afford to let it drift further out of reach. China is much more interested in locking down central Asia into its sphere of interest, and dominating the South China Sea. The thing it cannot afford is for Taiwan to become an actual independent nation, and it is willing to get quite aggressive to stop that. I really doubt China is willing to actually invade Taiwan, at least not now. They are rapidly building the capability though, and in a decade or so it might be feasible. They just can't lose control of the situation before then, and the recent US arms deal, and visits from senior US government officials risks doing exactly that.

edit: For those interested, the real instigating factor for all this are these; the Type 71 LPD and the Type 75 LHA. China needs these two classes of ships to have a chance at actually invading Taiwan, and until recently, they didn't have any capability in these two classes. Taiwan was essentially safe, because China couldn't really get its massive army across the water to attack them. In the last decade, that part of the balance of power has disappeared, because China has started building these really fast. Right now they have 4-5 Type 71s, and 1 Type 75, but they have a lot more on the way.

This means China can't invade Taiwan right now, because they don't have enough of them, and the crews are probably not very well trained yet (It is really challenging to operate a whole new type of ship, when nobody in your navy has experience with them). However, in a couple years it will totally be possible. The US saw the balance changing, and sold Taiwan a crapload of really powerful hardware to stop this. This really pisses off China, because it was trying to tip the balance in its own favor to increase its influence over Taiwan. So now there is a bit of an arms race, and everyone is getting pissed off.

This does not mean that we are going to see a conflict in this area any time soon. It could happen, but it is really unlikely. This is just a lot of very high stakes posturing for the moment, but it is trending in a nasty direction.

[DingDongKing]

Interesting article on Wisconsin. Seems Democrats need to get their act together on organising voting in Milwaukee to avoid suppression.

[cubby]

Interesting article on Wisconsin. Seems Democrats need to get their act together on organising voting in Milwaukee to avoid suppression.

WI may be lost to the Democrats with all the crap the WI SecState and State Supreme Court are pulling.

[DingDongKing]

WI may be lost to the Democrats with all the crap the WI SecState and State Supreme Court are pulling.

I think Democrats need to be operating on the assumption that Joe Biden is going to lose, and accordingly fight like hell to prevent that.

The closer we get to the election, the less fight I see in the party on an organisational level. It feels like they're okay saying, 'well, it's all rigged'.

[Eviscero]

I don’t really know why China would want to portray Trump as weak and hurt us reelection chances; replacing him with Biden might mean they have someone actually competent to contend with on a geopolitical scale as president of the US. Trump might speak a big game about hating China, but it’s not like he’s actually done anything effective to hurt them geopolitically. And actions speak far louder that words.

It’s the same with Russia. Why would Russia support trumps election/reelection? Because they want the US to be the strongest nation possible and they’re doing them a solid? No, it’s because they know Trump is a weak, divisive and ineffective leader who’s tenure as president allows Russia to slip into the power vacuum cracks caused by America’s faltering under trumps administration.

China is not Russia, whose MO is to weaken western democracies by any means necessary, including just by creating chaos, mistrust, and uncertainty. China benefits from a reliable trade partner in the US and plays a much longer game than Putin.

[cubby]

I think Democrats need to be operating on the assumption that Joe Biden is going to lose, and accordingly fight like hell to prevent that.

The closer we get to the election, the less fight I see in the party on an organisational level. It feels like they're okay saying, 'well, it's all rigged'.

I could not agree more. The Democrats needs to fight on every front with everything we have until Nov 4th. If we lose this election, the United States might truly be lost.

[TACOshake]

an ongoing theme for 2020.

Very Online People: " I don't see Biden in my online spaces, where is he?!?"

Biden campaign announces largest week of ad spending as November election nears

Joe Biden is burying Donald Trump in ads

Biden ignoring the advice of Very Online People has been the silver lining of 2020.


Also for you kids that didnt realize politics started before 2015. Texas has always been a source of surplus cash for the GOP.
Republican U.S. House campaign arm cancels $2 million in Houston-area advertising

Just to underscore this: the RNC needed to put $1.3 million into Texas last month.

[Draco-Onis]

I could not agree more. The Democrats needs to fight on every front with everything we have until Nov 4th. If we lose this election, the United States might truly be lost.

This is against my nature but I think RGB's death is backfiring on republicans. If you think about it there's no win in this for anyone but Trump. The republican party already has control of the supreme court, the only demographic this appeals to is the religious right and Trump's approval rating with them is 95-99%.

McConnell is basically making people in his caucus self immolate while energizing the left. The right to have an abortion is a 75-25 issue.

[DingDongKing]

I could not agree more. The Democrats needs to fight on every front with everything we have until Nov 4th. If we lose this election, the United States might truly be lost.

If I'm honest, I just don't think the party has it in them. Look at the SCOTUS situation, they're actually trying to appeal to the 'common sense' of the GOP by saying, 'hey, that's not fair!' As if the GOP gives a shit. If the shoe was on the other foot, and the GOP controlled the house, they'd impeach people in order to cause delays. They know it won't alienate their rabid base, so they'll do what they can. The Democrats just don't have the balls.

- - - Updated - - -

an ongoing theme for 2020.

Very Online People: " I don't see Biden in my online spaces, where is he?!?"

Biden campaign announces largest week of ad spending as November election nears

Joe Biden is burying Donald Trump in ads

Biden ignoring the advice of Very Online People has been the silver lining of 2020.


Also for you kids that didnt realize politics started before 2015. Texas has always been a source of surplus cash for the GOP.
Republican U.S. House campaign arm cancels $2 million in Houston-area advertising

Just to underscore this: the RNC needed to put $1.3 million into Texas last month.

Honest question. How is it that they're pumping so much into ads yet there are TIME and Guardian articles claiming issues on ground in Michigan and Wisconsin. Is it a case of people going to panic stations, or journalists taking advantage of Democrat anxiety? I can't tell. I'm not in the US.

[Felya]

I don't even have the energy to watch the video. It's just exhausting.

Don’t... just respond to the title... “it’s not all fun and games”... is obviously about Trump Virus downplaying corona, which lead to 200000 deaths. If you get it wrong, what’s going to happen? He will have to reply and take responsibility for the bullshit in the video, while correcting you? Win win...

[Rasulis]

If I'm honest, I just don't think the party has it in them. Look at the SCOTUS situation, they're actually trying to appeal to the 'common sense' of the GOP by saying, 'hey, that's not fair!' As if the GOP gives a shit. If the shoe was on the other foot, and the GOP controlled the house, they'd impeach people in order to cause delays. They know it won't alienate their rabid base, so they'll do what they can. The Democrats just don't have the balls.

- - - Updated - - -



Honest question. How is it that they're pumping so much into ads yet there are TIME and Guardian articles claiming issues on ground in Michigan and Wisconsin. Is it a case of people going to panic stations, or journalists taking advantage of Democrat anxiety? I can't tell. I'm not in the US.

2016 traumatized Democratic voters. In the US, 31 states allowed voters registration by party affiliations. In 2016, Trump won all 12 states where GOP had the advantage in registered voters and six states out of 19 where Democrats had voter registration advantage. A big part of it was that Democratic voters did not show up in 2016. Black voters turnout was 7% lower than 2012. Less than half Latino eligible voters showed up that year. When nationally a party lead in term of voters registration 40.3%(D) vs. 29.6% (R) vs. 30.1% (Independent + Green + Libertarian) and managed to lose to somebody like Trump, that would leave a scar in the psyche of the party which will take a long time to heal.

[DingDongKing]

2016 traumatized Democratic voters. In the US, 31 states allowed voters registration by party affiliations. In 2016, Trump won all 12 states where GOP had the advantage in registered voters and six states out of 19 where Democrats had voter registration advantage. A big part of it was that Democratic voters did not show up in 2016. Black voters turnout was 7% lower than 2012. Less than half Latino eligible voters showed up that year. When nationally a party lead in term of voters registration 40.3%(D) vs. 29.6% (R) vs. 30.1% (Independent + Green + Libertarian) and managed to lose to somebody like Trump, that would leave a scar in the psyche of the party which will take a long time to heal.

How are those numbers looking this year? What is the expected Black/Latino/Independent turnout looking like?

[omerome]

This is against my nature but I think RGB's death is backfiring on republicans. If you think about it there's no win in this for anyone but Trump. The republican party already has control of the supreme court, the only demographic this appeals to is the religious right and Trump's approval rating with them is 95-99%.

McConnell is basically making people in his caucus self immolate while energizing the left. The right to have an abortion is a 75-25 issue.

McConnell is like the Freiza of politics. He revels in power and never had anyone truly challenge him and win. I just hope one day a Democrat will finally stand up to him and after all of the crap they went through, finally transform into something...super. Know what I'm saiyan?