Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[postman1782]

are there any state poll numbers to look at that will flip red/blue?

Almost all of the states that Trump barely won in 2016. I think the 3 states he won, Trump is losing them all, by decent margins.

He won Pennsylvania by less than 45k votes.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iden-6861.html
Biden is up by 5.3% on average. The Trafalgar group poll is HEAVILY leaning to Republicans, almost as bad, if not worse than Rasmussen.

Trump won Wisconsin by less than 23k votes.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iden-6849.html
Biden has an average lead of 6.2% thanks to the Trafalgar group poll bringing that down too.

And Trump barely won Michigan by less than 11k votes.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iden-6761.html
Biden up by 5.2% on average. Again Trafalgar group is so based they think Trump is winning.

The fact that they conduct their polling like this:

Trafalgar Group adjusts its polls for a "social desirability" effect, the hypothesized tendency of some voters to calibrate their responses to polls towards what they believe the survey taker would like to hear.[2][3][4] It does this by not only asking respondents how they plan to vote but also how they think their neighbors might vote.[4] Former Democratic Party strategist Ed Kilgore, in the New York Magazine in July 2020, criticized Trafalgar's approach, writing, "The Shy Trump Voter may not be entirely a myth, but they’re not numerous enough to fill a Trump rally, much less change an election result or rebut a poll."[5]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trafalgar_Group

Means no one should listen to them.

[Edge-]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/tru...-taxes-totally

The NYT report on Trump's taxes are now "totally made up".

Surely Trump will release his tax returns to clear the record now, right?

[postman1782]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/tru...-taxes-totally

The NYT report on Trump's taxes are now "totally made up".

Surely Trump will release his tax returns to clear the record now, right?

Even though Trump confirmed they are real? Amazing.

[Edge-]

https://apnews.com/article/virus-out...ae0343ac9493fa

Reminder that one party is actually trying to work during the pandemic. House Democrats passed another Covid-19 relief bill, this time to the tune of $2.2T, a reduction from the earlier $3.4T bill they passed. It includes the $600 a week unemployment benefit extension, a second round of $1,200 direct payments, scales back money for state and local aide and includes hundreds of billions for colleges and the PPP.

It does not include McConnell's blanket liability protection for businesses during the pandemic, because businesses operating dangerously and putting their employees at risk should be legally liable if their actions cause employees and/or customers to get sick.

Democrats continue to try to find a compromise. Republicans continue to...well, not.

[nonameelf]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/tru...-taxes-totally

The NYT report on Trump's taxes are now "totally made up".

Surely Trump will release his tax returns to clear the record now, right?

So, they are illegally leaked fake tax returns?

Trump's such a fraud.

[cubby]

are there any state poll numbers to look at that will flip red/blue?

I haven't seen anything, but I also haven't been looking. Pelosi is gearing up for the possibility of the House picking the President in January. Currently the State legislators are 22-26 Dem-GOP controlled, with two other kinda in limbo.

State races are key - if anyone finds a good aggregate polling site, please link it. Fivethirtyeight doesn't track that.

[Zaydin]

Reposting this:

The hits just keep on coming: The White House spent the summer pressuring the CDC to downplay the risks of sending kids back to school.

[Shadowferal]

I think this is a bit silly now. At least Obama was a president at the time, and had managed to do something, like his speech in Cairo. Biden appears to just be "not Trump", which counts for something, I suppose.

I ddidn't think it meant anything beyond not being Bush.
And his continuation of much of GWB's war time policies was less than endearing for those that hoped for "better than Bush, and lamented "at least he's not Republican."

[cubby]

Reposting this:

The hits just keep on coming: The White House spent the summer pressuring the CDC to downplay the risks of sending kids back to school.

And still 40%+ follow him and the election will be close, with a distinct possibility of Trump winning.

What in the holy fuck is wrong with this country?

[Rasulis]

This election will be a record breaking election. Some observations from early data collected by “2020 General Election Early Vote Statistics” by University of Florida US Election Project.

As of Monday, September 28, 1,025,722 ballots have already been turned in.

In 2016, only 10,000 ballots have been turned in by the same time period.

So far, Nationally, voters have cast 0.7% of the total votes counted in the 2016 general election.

Based on reports from states with party registration data (FL, IA and NC), the breakdown is 53.8% Democrats, 16.7% Republicans, Minor Parties 0.3% and Independent 29.2%.

Voters have requested a total of 64,612,936 ballots in the reporting states.

That's just short of half of the total votes counted in 2016 general election.

Early project data indicate the number of voters in 2020 will be 20% to 30% (25 to 37 million votes) higher than 2016.

One way or another this will be a blowout election. Both in term of turnout and spending.

BTW, ActBlue has raised over 300M in small donation since Ginsburg passing. That's 30M per day.

Thank you Trump for a historically groundbreaking election.

[Felya]

Not sure if this part of his taxes were discussed:

Trump says he still can't share returns after report he paid only $750 in income taxes in 2016 and 2017
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...rt/3556287001/

While Trump paid only $750 in federal income taxes in 2017, he or his companies paid $145,400 to India, $15,598 to Panama and $156,824 in the Philippines the same year.

America First? Evil globalist? Something tells me this will be brought up tomorrow...

[Rasulis]

Not sure if this part of his taxes were discussed:

Trump says he still can't share returns after report he paid only $750 in income taxes in 2016 and 2017
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...rt/3556287001/


America First? Evil globalist? Something tells me this will be brought up tomorrow...

Navarro: Trump paid Stormy Daniels more than he paid in taxes

Lol! Here I thought it could not get any worse than Clinton.

[s_bushido]

Thank you Trump for a historically groundbreaking election.

That was his hugely bigly-brained 56-D chess plan all along: to be such a complete shit-show and public embarrassment that people stampede to the polls to eject his ass from office.

[Felya]

That was his hugely bigly-brained 56-D chess plan all along: to be such a complete shit-show and public embarrassment that people stampede to the polls to eject his ass from office.

To be fair, knowing what we know now about his finances, it’s a solid plan...

[Fugus]

To be fair, knowing what we know now about his finances, it’s a solid plan...

At this point, there is only one way where I could actually accept him getting away with it all.

For him to flee to Russia before his term is officially up and them refuse to turn him over. Then, while he is there, he releases a video to his base bragging about how stupid and gullible they were and about how he intentionally damaged their futures for his own personal gain and how he lied and played them for fools and their own party knew about it and they all went along with it and made fun of them and made his base look and feel like the fools they have really been this entire time and knowing that everything he did and everything they encouraged was done for the express purposes of hurting them and helping him.

That is the only way I could ever tolerate him actually getting away with it completely because at least then his base are forced to admit what they have lied about this entire time.

[Zan15]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/28/polit...ves/index.html

Keeping it all in the family.

Hire your daughter as a "consultant", pay her exorbitant sums of money, write the money off as a business expense.

AND BE SURE TO DO IT FOR THE YEARS WHERE BOTH YOU, THE PRESIDENT, AND YOUR DAUGHTER, AN UNAPPOINTED GOVERNMENT OFFICIAL, ARE IN FEDERAL GOVERNMENT.

Who knew that Ivanka has so much free time in her official capacity that she can moonlight as a "consultant" for her fathers businesses?! And it gets better -



So was Trump paying himself and his family tens of millions of dollars in nebulous "consulting fees" and writing it off as business expenses? That seems a lot like fraud to me.

.

damn i am going back and paying my daughter a few hundy thow.....why not....wana bet what will happen?
i mean she fucking knows it all like all teenagers and has no problem "consulting" with me on what i should allow her to do and why i should "invest" in her endevors.

[Felya]

Ooh... With me returning to work on Thursday, I got a good comparison for Trump paying 750$ in taxes... that’s less than 2 months of tax withholding if you get max unemployment. I payed more in taxes in 2 months of unemployment, than Trump in a year.

To think, that was so much taxes, that Trump made giving corporations like him self a 15% tax cut... 750$ was too much...

[cubby]

That was his hugely bigly-brained 56-D chess plan all along: to be such a complete shit-show and public embarrassment that people stampede to the polls to eject his ass from office.

A very small part of me, infinitely small, always expects him to go on live television and start out with "what in the holy fuck were you people thinking, voting for and then supporting me...."

[Felya]

A very small part of me, infinitely small, always expects him to go on live television and start out with "what in the holy fuck were you people thinking, voting for and then supporting me...."

I can see Trump doing his version of “if I did it”:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/If_I_Did_It

[jonnysensible]

I can see Trump doing his version of “if I did it”:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/If_I_Did_It

cant wait to see the chewbacca defense