Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[cubby]

You guys won’t wear masks, we don’t expect you’ll wear condoms.

Incoming Idiocraty.

(to be clear, that's me agreeing with you, and referencing a movie to do so)

[Flower Milk]

Guys don't protest because you're making Democrats look bad and then moderate Republicans like Mitt Romney won't vote for us! There are definitely good Republicans out there guys trust me, lemme just retweet The Lincoln Project some more and we should definitely invite more Republicans to speak at the Democratic National Convention.

I just wanna say, we fucking told you so libs. How many times are you gonna get grifted by Republicans until you wake the fuck up?

[Edge-]

Guys don't protest because you're making Democrats look bad and then moderate Republicans like Mitt Romney won't vote for us! There are definitely good Republicans out there guys trust me, lemme just retweet The Lincoln Project some more and we should definitely invite more Republicans to speak at the Democratic National Convention.

I just wanna say, we fucking told you so libs.

Except that has nothing to do with what's happening now, and had Democrats gone hard-left during the convention nothing about what's playing out right now would be different in the slightest. You're conflating two independent, separate events as if they have something in common when they don't.

[Flower Milk]

Except that has nothing to do with what's happening now, and had Democrats gone hard-left during the convention nothing about what's playing out right now would be different in the slightest. You're conflating two independent, separate events as if they have something in common when they don't.

Right that's why Biden is polling only 5% with Republicans the lowest of any Democratic candidate in decades, he's definitely gonna win by continuing to try to appeal to those moderate Republicans like Mitt Romney and The Lincoln Project guys and not left-leaning Independents.

And honestly, at this point, it doesn't even matter if he does actually end up winning. Trump will just pull a Bush v. Gore 2: Electric Boogaloo and get the conservative supermajority Supreme Court to declare he won the election anyway. Remember that guys? George W. Bush is totally reformed because he gave Michelle Obama a piece of candy though, he's definitely totally one of those good Republicans guys.

[beanman12345]

Right that's why Biden is polling only 5% with Republicans the lowest of any Democratic candidate in decades, he's definitely gonna win by continuing to try to appeal to those moderate Republicans like Mitt Romney and The Lincoln Project guys and not left-leaning Independents.

It's about appealing to people who are against Trump. The left-leaning Independents are not against Trump they have serious priority problems.

[cubby]

It's already been mentioned, but today is National Voter Registration Day.

Do you think Trump will have the flags flown at half mast...?

[Zan15]

Well, Romney says he will vote in the Senate if a Supreme Court Justice replacement is brought to the floor.........https://www.cbsnews.com/news/mitt-ro...nee-this-year/

Washington — Republican Senator Mitt Romney of Utah indicated Tuesday he supports moving forward with consideration of a Supreme Court nominee during an election year, providing crucial backing to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell as he proceeds with filling the vacancy on the high court just weeks before Election Day.

"The Constitution gives the President the power to nominate and the Senate the authority to provide advice and consent on Supreme Court nominees," Romney said in a statement. "Accordingly, I intend to follow the Constitution and precedent in considering the president's nominee. If the nominee reaches the Senate floor, I intend to vote based upon their qualifications."

Romney noted that the historical precedent of nominations made to the Supreme Court during an election year is for the Senate not to confirm the nominee put forth by the opposing party, but to confirm the pick of its own.

Can't wait for ACA to be repealed, your VA benefits to disappear, Any pre-existing makes you uninsurable and Medicare gets abolished.

Only thing left of all your socialist benefits will be your govt pension, i am sure they will find a way to get rid of that too.

oh and SS to go broke and you beg for a bailout instead of 60-70% of expected benefits.

[Flower Milk]

It's about appealing to people who are against Trump. The left-leaning Independents are not against Trump they have serious priority problems.

They are against Trump but they also want things like M4A, the Green New Deal, etc and when they've lost their jobs and are getting evicted en masse, they have nothing left, and threatening them with "but if Trump wins democracy will die and you guys will lose everything" doesn't matter when they've already lost everything. You have to give them something to vote for, like Republicans do for their voters. It might be racist bullshit and fear mongering, but they're still giving them something to vote for besides "we're not the other guy".

[Edge-]

Right that's why Biden is polling only 5% with Republicans the lowest of any Democratic candidate in decades, he's definitely gonna win by continuing to try to appeal to those moderate Republicans like Mitt Romney and The Lincoln Project guys and not left-leaning Independents.

There was a study recently about how a lot of Republicans left the party over issues of racism and bigotry in recent years, so that likely affects it. But the play isn't for hardline party Republicans, but for more socially conservative Democrats (sup Rust Belt) and more centrist independents who are likely turned off by progressives. It sucks, it's shitty and I wish there wasn't a legitimate reason to pander to their bigoted nonsense, but that's the game you gotta play if you want to win. There simply aren't enough progressives for the Democrats to be an unabashedly progressive party and win any kind of national political power yet.

Mitt Romney was never the target. The Lincoln Project wasn't the target either.

Would what's playing out now be ANY different if Democrats had packed their convention with progressives instead, or something?

[beanman12345]

They are against Trump but they also want things like M4A, the Green New Deal, etc and when they've lost their jobs and are getting evicted en masse, they have nothing left, and threatening them with "but if Trump wins democracy will die and you guys will lose everything" doesn't matter when they've already lost everything. You have to give them something to vote for, like Republicans do for their voters. It might be racist bullshit and fear mongering, but they're still giving them something to vote for besides "we're not the other guy".

wtf does M4A green new deal any of that matter to people who lost their jobs and are homeless and don't even care enough to vote out the guy responsible for the situation they are in? Your attempts to get people to not vote biden to get rid of trump are pretty shit.

[Hobb]

Right that's why Biden is polling only 5% with Republicans the lowest of any Democratic candidate in decades, he's definitely gonna win by continuing to try to appeal to those moderate Republicans like Mitt Romney and The Lincoln Project guys and not left-leaning Independents.

You need to take into consideration the republican party is smaller now than it was in 2016. Trump has successfully disenfranchised many moderate republicans into leaving the party and becoming independent. As such when doing a percentage poll of registered republicans the number is going to be in the extreme, because the ones being polled are mostly Trump's die hard followers, the moderates who have left are not counted.

[Flower Milk]

There was a study recently about how a lot of Republicans left the party over issues of racism and bigotry in recent years, so that likely affects it. But the play isn't for hardline party Republicans, but for more socially conservative Democrats (sup Rust Belt) and more centrist independents who are likely turned off by progressives. It sucks, it's shitty and I wish there wasn't a legitimate reason to pander to their bigoted nonsense, but that's the game you gotta play if you want to win. There simply aren't enough progressives for the Democrats to be an unabashedly progressive party and win any kind of national political power yet.

Mitt Romney was never the target. The Lincoln Project wasn't the target either.

Would what's playing out now be ANY different if Democrats had packed their convention with progressives instead, or something?

Link that study, because I've been watching Republican numbers and they've basically stayed around the same since 2016.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/p...filiation.aspx

November 2016 had 27% Republicans, and now there's 26% of Republicans.

Which also tracks with Biden having only 5% Republican support.

"Centrist Independents"? Trump is leading Biden with Independent voters by 10 points. Biden needs to appeal to those ~100 million who didn't vote in 2016, and guess why they didn't vote?

https://theintercept.com/2020/04/09/...e-two-parties/

In November, New York Times data journalist Nate Cohn, analyzing data from a New York Times/Siena College survey of nonvoters in battleground states who abstained from voting both in 2016 and 2018, similarly described them as “disproportionately young, nonwhite and low-income,” adding that “nonvoters are less likely to have graduated from a four-year college.” In a separate article last July, Cohn noted that “young and nonwhite and low-income voters are overrepresented among nonvoters,” and “young and nonwhite voters continued to vote at lower rates than older and white voters.”

A separate Pew survey, in 2017, of people who are not registered to vote found exactly the opposite: that people who refrain from participating in the electoral process largely do so because they are dissatisfied with the choices or believe voting will not change their lives. As Pew put it: “The unregistered were more likely to say they do not vote because they dislike politics or believe voting will not make a difference, while people who are registered but vote infrequently say they do not vote more often because they are not informed enough about the candidates or issues.”

Indeed, that Pew survey of unregistered voters found that the most common cause for not registering is that they do not want to vote, and the most common reasons have nothing to do with voter suppression and everything to do with beliefs about the worthlessness of the elections. As Pew put it, “forty-four percent of eligible unregistered individuals say they do not want to vote,” while “25 percent say they are unregistered because they have not been inspired by a candidate or issue.”

You need to give them something to show up to vote for. Trying to appeal to Republicans and telling people "we have to vote for the lesser evil to get Trump out" isn't going to get those non-voters to show up for you, and they are who Biden needs to win, not "centrist Independents" or these magical former Republicans that don't exist.

[Valkyrst]

It's about appealing to people who are against Trump. The left-leaning Independents are not against Trump they have serious priority problems.

Pretty much. It’s not about appealing to the hardcore Republican base. They’re never going to vote. It’s the Obama/Trump voters and the Romney/Clinton voters that are the intended target. But the more whiny portion of the left will not get it. Because they’re okay being vindictive and childlike.

[Edge-]

wtf does M4A green new deal any of that matter to people who lost their jobs and are homeless and don't even care enough to vote out the guy responsible for the situation they are in? Your attempts to get people to not vote biden to get rid of trump are pretty shit.

Not to mention both initiatives are VERY longterm and won't have any meaningful impact in the immediate future given the logistical complexity in setting either up.

Or that while M4A generically has majority support, almost every specific M4A plan that's come out has failed to achieve anywhere near the support that the "idea" of M4A enjoys.

For GND, there's a woeful lack of education/information about it so polling is more difficult. But similar to M4A, while there may be more support for the generic idea behind it when you start getting down to the brass tacks of how much it will cost then sentiment turns against it sharply - https://www.washingtonpost.com/clima...ns-reach-them/

This is the frustrating bit. I love both initiatives and wouldn't be opposed to the price tags, this shit is gonna be expensive but it's both not as expensive as spending otherwise on the M4A front (simply shifting the spending a bit) and necessary to head off bigger problems down the road. But the depressing reality is that the electorate simply ain't ready for either, and they'll both require ACA-style initiatives where America is dragged kicking and screaming towards progress, realizing nearly a decade later that the thing they were told would benefit them is actually beneficial and that they kinda like it.

[Dontrike]

It's been "fucking on" ever since Kavanaugh. Republicans will never forget.

You mean the guy that was never investigated one bit and was rushed through? Yeah, he sure got the short end of the stick there.

[Flower Milk]

Pretty much. It’s not about appealing to the hardcore Republican base. They’re never going to vote. It’s the Obama/Trump voters and the Romney/Clinton voters that are the intended target. But the more whiny portion of the left will not get it. Because they’re okay being vindictive and childlike.

Obama to Trump voters support Medicare for All.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/06/o...mp-voters.html

Medicare for all is surprisingly popular among all Obama-Trump voters, but especially those who voted for Democrats in 2018. Eighty-three percent of those who switched back to the Democratic Party in 2018 support Medicare for all, nearly as high as the 93 percent support the policy achieves among the most solidly blue Democratic voting bloc.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/lo...ers-2017-04-07

Vox’s Sarah Kliff reported this week how surprised she was when she helped conduct a focus group on health care among Trump voters and half of them spontaneously said they would like a single-payer system like Canada’s.

“We hadn’t planned to bring up single-payer health care,” Kliff wrote of the March session. “The focus group was about the Affordable Care Act. But one Trump voter had raised the idea that we’d be better off if we had a health-care system like Canada’s — where the government runs one health-insurance plan for everyone — and wanted to see who agreed.”

And in my own anecdotal evidence when I was a volunteer for Bernie, once you explain how Medicare for All works to people who voted for Trump, they are 100% on board. I had a much harder time trying to convince middle class to wealthy moderate Democrats to support Medicare for All than I ever did poor Trump supporters.

[Vegas82]

You mean the guy that was never investigated one bit and was rushed through? Yeah, he sure got the short end of the stick there.

For republicans simply pointing out a guy is a rapist is the most terrible thing you can do. Far worse than raping anyone.

[Felya]

Obama to Trump voters support Medicare for All.

That’s for Medicare For All, without government control. Once you add government control, you get the same split as Obamacare vs Affordable Care Act... have people learned nothing?

[starlord]

M4A/GND is not a magic bullet & would make little difference in the election anyways.
most people you talk to about it's reaction is something like, "oh how much will my taxes go up?"

[Valkyrst]

That’s for Medicare For All, without government control. Once you add government control, you get the same split as Obamacare vs Affordable Care Act... have people learned nothing?

Any Trump voters who think he’ll provide M4A that’s in line with what Bernie or Warren have pitched are living in dreamland.