Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[Milchshake]

I feel like some of you are setting yourselves up for disappointment.

It's like everyone decided to mainline twitter and Dex today.

26 Days to go.

[Xyonai]

Trump campaign is really fucking broke. Which is to be expected considering it's ran by a failure of a businessman.

And, considering the type of people Trump hires, most of the campaign fund probably got leeched, embezzled, or syphoned out by who knows how many people.

[Edge-]

https://thehill.com/homenews/adminis...blic-events-on

Trump's doctor is clearing him to return to campaigning on Saturday, 10 days after his positive test, based on his examinations.

[Benggaul]

https://thehill.com/homenews/adminis...blic-events-on

Trump's doctor is clearing him to return to campaigning on Saturday, 10 days after his positive test, based on his examinations.

Ah. The guy who's not an MD.

Good luck, White House and campaign staff!

[eschatological]

Wait, is he even off the course of steroids that make him euphoric yet?

Isn't that steroid supposed to be administered in a hospital setting because that's how strong it is?

[Redwyrm]

Fly/Pence 2020 "The hot steaming pile and the fly it attracts"

Definitely a better pairing.

[Edge-]

Wait, is he even off the course of steroids that make him euphoric yet?

Isn't that steroid supposed to be administered in a hospital setting because that's how strong it is?

I think those last 8-10 days, no? So should be wearing off between today and...Saturday.

[cubby]

Trump campaign is really fucking broke. Which is to be expected considering it's ran by a failure of a businessman.

Anyone who bankrupts FOUR casinos is anything but a businessman. Biden apparently is rolling in cash right, and the post-RBG numbers are looking Yuge. He just needs to make sure to spread himself around. All the battleground states. Day after day, no breaks, until the end.

[nonameelf]

How is Trump supposed to be ready for campaigning on Saturday when he's only been positive for a week? Supposed to be a 2 week quarantine.

Unless he's had it for longer than a week.

[Edge-]

How is Trump supposed to be ready for campaigning on Saturday when he's only been positive for a week? Supposed to be a 2 week quarantine.

Unless he's had it for longer than a week.

Good genes, maybe he'll live 'till 200. He is the chosen one, getting covid was a blessing.

Or at least those are the words of him and his doctors.

[Breccia]

Trump can't even afford air time for ads in Arizona Michigan and several other key states, and yet when given FREE advertisement on primetime network television with the debates, he's too much of a chicken shit bitch scared to even do that. what a little bitch.

‘Extremely Confident’ Trump Campaign Pulls Midwest Ad Buys, Moves Focus To Sun Belt

From Forbes, from yesterday.

Trump’s reelection campaign has pulled millions of dollars in TV from Midwestern states that voted red in 2016 — but where recent polls put him behind Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden — to focus on Sun Belt swing states where Trump has even more ground to make up.

Trump’s campaign pulled $2.5 million in ads from Ohio and $820,000 from ads in Iowa, CNN reported Monday, states where recent polls show Trump was behind by 5 points and 1 point, respectively.

His campaign has also cancelled at least $2 million in ad buys in both Michigan and Wisconsin, and shaved $5 million from its projected fall TV budget in Minnesota.

Meanwhile the Trump campaign has pumped up its TV presence across Sun Belt states like Florida, Georgia, Nevada and Arizona where Biden has a much greater lead in the polls against Trump – in Florida, which Trump won in 2016, he’s trailing Biden by 11 percentage points, according to a Quinnipiac University poll.

Redirecting ad spends is normal towards the end of an election race – campaigns want to prioritize advertising in states where it will be most effective.

From Newsweek, from yesterday.

The campaign relinquished advertising slots worth at least $2 million in Michigan and Wisconsin over the past month, and cut additional funding to broadcast advertisements in Minnesota by nearly $5 million, Buzzfeed News reported on Wednesday. Advertising Analytics, a media company that tracks ad spending, reportedly confirmed the latest budget numbers.

News of the Trump campaign's spending cuts in Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota—all considered Democratic-leaning battleground states ahead of November's general election—followed reports published in early September that said the president's team was pulling ad funding across the board. A detailed New York Times report suggested heavy spending in certain areas during the earlier part of Trump's campaign trail prompted officials to reallocate funds away from advertising ventures as early as July.

The campaign largely halted spending on television advertisements in Iowa, Ohio, Texas and Nebraska in September, instead turning its focus to Arizona, Florida, Nevada and Georgia over the last few weeks. All are battleground states. Recent polling data compiled by FiveThirtyEight shows Trump trailing behind Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden in Nevada, Arizona, Florida and Georgia, with Biden holding narrow advantages in the latter two states.

Okay, so far we're all on board.

Then you cited this story:

LAUREN GILGER: If you've watched TV in the last few days, you might have noticed something missing from your slate of commercials: President Donald Trump. The president's campaign has pulled at least a week's worth — and hundreds of thousands of dollars’ worth — of TV ads in Arizona and elsewhere. The move comes with less than 60 days to go before the November election and gives his Democratic challenger, former Vice President Joe Biden, key time to fill the airwaves with his own message to voters. The move has kicked up speculation from the left that the Trump campaign is giving up on Arizona, once a [Republican] stalwart. But our next guest says not so fast. Lisa James is a Republican political consultant, and I spoke with her more about it.

LISA JAMES: So it's interesting because Arizona has received more attention than any other presidential campaign in even recent history. So they've been on the ground for a long time. The president's been here multiple times. For me, I think this is just they could use this money in a different place if they needed it for the time being. I mean, they only took a week down so they could be, you know, be back up and running next week if necessary. We don't start voting for another, well, a little under 30 days now. I think they've got some time. I think, you know, in addition, this president has used his direct messaging via Twitter, for better or for worse, and even using the media to get his message out more effectively than any campaign in recent history. So the fact that he's not buying time is not a huge concern at this point.

GILGER: Right. There is this, this idea that this president in particular has a very large megaphone to begin with, right? Like his campaign last time around didn't spend nearly as much as his opponent and managed to gather a lot of attention on the media.

JAMES: Exactly. He was masterful. And it's going to be studied in every political science and even PR and communications classes for, you know, the foreseeable future. And how did he do this? And could anyone else replicate that? He does have a unique way and manages to get the media to follow him and really hasn't had to spend the money that other campaigns have had to do to get their message out.

Now hold on: let me add something from the first/Forbes article.

“President Trump and his campaign are extremely confident about our chances in these states,” Trump campaign spokeswoman Samantha Zager said in a statement. “We have been talking directly with voters for years via multiple avenues about the success of President Trump’s America First agenda. Unlike Joe Biden, campaign ads aren’t the only way we know how to campaign.”

See what's happening? The Party of Trump is trying to gaslight the ads ending as a good thing for them. If cutting ads was a good idea, why didn't they do it last month? It's also worth noting that sites like 270towin flipped Arizona quite recently indeed.

Nobody in their right mind would be confident Trump will keep Arizona. Arizona looks like this:



I think it's funny that he brought up Biden. Biden literally fundraised off that fly on Pence's head. Oh, and he broke records for fundraising during the debate.

So what's really happening? Honestly, I'm not sure. I'm having trouble finding out how much money each campaign has left. But I do know at the End of August (boring movie btw) Biden had $180 million, 50% more than Trump. Biden also raised more in August then Trump did, and spent more in August than Trump did, and still made a profit in August which Trump didn't. I can't find September, it may not be public yet. But I have no reason to believe the fundraising changed that dramatically.

Based on all timelines I've seen, Trump has raised more money total, but spent a higher amount/percent of it. He blew his cooldowns on trash. And Biden's about to hit the Enrage Timer.

There just isn't enough money to go around. You can admit there's a hole, or you can smear shit over it, but there's still a hole.

So my question is: why give up on Ohio?

I totally get focusing on Florida and Georgia. Losing those will be both fatal and embarrassing. And he can definitely salveage Nevada. He's up by...

(checks news)

He has the outside chance at salvaging Nevada. And Arizona...I mean, he might be thinking about Sheriff Joe or something? Arizona looks lost to me, but I'm hardly an expert.

But here's the thing: Ohio is closer than any of those.



My non-expert ass has been saying "Biden should go after Ohio" because it's within his grasp. Which is exactly why Trump needs to go there. Biden gets Ohio and he extends his lead. Trump loses Ohio, and he loses his chance.

I know there's not enough money to go around, but why focus on states you're that far behind in, and abandon a state that's both closer and mandatory? Nevada is 6 EC votes and leaning Biden. Ohio's 18 and a tossup. This move makes no sense.

So what's happening here? I can think of only these options:

1) Trump is buying into his own Silent Majority and thinks Ohio's polls are Fake News. That sounds like him, but it doesn't sound like a professional campaign team.

2) Trump is looking ahead, is planning on a rally in Ohio, and thinks that'll put him over the edge. A candidate going to a location historically helps, and it's not like he needs many points to take the state. Problem with that is, the rally in Columbus on...Columbus Day, are you fucking kidding me?...will be hosting Pence, not Trump. Pence is so low energy, flies land on him. And that change was made several days ago, for obvious reasons. So I'm not buying this.

3) Trump is counting on an October Surprise that means he'll get a few points in every state, and therefore, doesn't need to focus on Ohio. Seems to fit, except he's still spending in Georgia. Georgia is almost as close as Ohio, and Biden currently leads there by just a smidge. Spending money there makes absolute sense, especially if it's combined with Florida, which it is. But if some magical revelation comes out ("RT reports that Biden once ate a live dauchsund") and therefore he doesn't need to focus on Ohio, he doesn't need to focus on Georgia, either.

4) The recent change in leadership at the Trump campaign, at a time when Trump is this far behind, making this many mistakes, and this low on money, has created a sense of chaos and rash decisions are being made.

Basically I can't think of a reason that's both logical and also fits the evidence. Anyone want to take a swing at this one?

[cubby]

https://twitter.com/cspan/status/1314179655537176583

Is this the trashiest "I won, fuck you all I'm out of here" statement by a president or is it the trashiest?

That is seriously just the trashiest possible statement. This is worse than some/most of Trump tweets. I can't believe a presidential campaign manager put this out. Brad must be...all tied up atm.

[Breccia]

Kamala Harris comes off as such an insufferable lying bitch. Sorry, it’s just true.
- Fox contributor Harlan Hill.

He's no longer a Fox contributor.

Companies distance from pro-Trump commentator after vulgar Harris tweet

An ally of President Trump sparked widespread backlash on social media after posting a tweet that used a vulgar insult to attack Democratic vice presidential nominee Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.), leading to a number of companies distancing themselves from the commentator.

Harlan Hill, president of the D.C.-based Logan Circle Group, which describes itself as a boutique public relations firm, tweeted that "there are fine insufferable bitches on many sides"

*cough* Sorry.

tweeted that Harris "comes off as an insufferable, lying bitch" as the Democratic senator debated Vice President Pence on Wednesday night.

Several companies on Thursday distanced themselves from Hill after social media users noted that his firm's website listed their logos under the banner "Trusted by the best," giving the impression they were clients.

Hill told CNBC that he worked with companies listed on his site "either directly or thru consulting partners." Logos for the companies remained on the firm's website as recently as Thursday evening.

"We won’t tolerate it. We just told Mr. Hill to stop using our name & logo. He doesn’t represent us & never will," American Airlines tweeted in response to former longtime GOP strategist Steve Schmidt, a co-founder of the anti-Trump GOP group The Lincoln Project who was among those to take aim at Hill over his remarks.

The airline told CNBC it has no record of Hill working for the company.

“We have found no record of this person working for us, and he certainly never will in the future," a spokesperson for AT&T added in a statement to CNBC. "We have contacted him and demanded he remove our name and logo from his website."

Hill has since returned to work on Trump's campaign, where he has continued to tweet other vulgar things in a more welcoming environment to calling women monsters.

Good morning! Kamala Harris still sucks and comes off as a bitch.

--10AM today, not kidding.

[Benggaul]

Awww man I was WAITING for the fly conspiracy theories to start and I was not disappointed:

https://twitter.com/leilaclaire/stat...644486144?s=20

[nonameelf]

Companies distance from pro-Trump commentator after vulgar Harris tweet



*cough* Sorry.



Hill has since returned to work on Trump's campaign, where he has continued to tweet other vulgar things in a more welcoming environment to calling women monsters.


--10AM today, not kidding.

I doubt blatant sexism is a turn off for Fox viewers.

[cubby]

Awww man I was WAITING for the fly conspiracy theories to start and I was not disappointed:

https://twitter.com/leilaclaire/stat...644486144?s=20

Wow - they are fucking crazy. Hysterical reading though - thanks for that link.

[DarkTZeratul]

1) Trump is buying into his own Silent Majority and thinks Ohio's polls are Fake News. That sounds like him, but it doesn't sound like a professional campaign team.

4) The recent change in leadership at the Trump campaign, at a time when Trump is this far behind, making this many mistakes, and this low on money, has created a sense of chaos and rash decisions are being made.

Basically I can't think of a reason that's both logical and also fits the evidence. Anyone want to take a swing at this one?

Honestly, I think a combination of 1 and 4 is probably closest to the truth.

[Breccia]

In the ongoing...fuck it, everyone was right.

'He needs 10 more': GOP consultants say Trump's threat to skip the debate is foolhardy

Trump's vow to skip the next debate if it is held virtually delighted supporters but confounded observers who say he risks throwing away one of his last best chances to change the course of a race he is currently losing.

"The president's threat to walk away from a virtual debate is a power move that seems almost certain to backfire," said Liam Donovan, a Republican strategist.

"This debate may be the last best opportunity to score a game-changing moment or otherwise hope to impact the trajectory of this race before it's too late," he added. "It's also one of the few remaining speed bumps for Vice President Biden, and Trump would be doing Joe a real favor by letting him off the hook."

Whit Ayers, a top GOP pollster, suspected Trump might reconsider after some reflection and discussions with advisers, just as he did on negotiations over another round of economic stimulus earlier this week.

"He's behind, and he needs to take every opportunity to try to close the gap," Ayers said. "The only upside to him skipping this is if his performance is going to be comparable to the one we saw last (at the first debate). And that would be difficult to pull off, virtually."

But for Trump allies, the move is everything they like about the president: A brash show of strength and willingness to brush away stuffy conventions and challenge the news media, along with Washington institutions like the debate commission. The president has an enormous megaphone, they argue, and he can reach millions of Americans anytime, so he doesn't need to submit himself to someone else's rules he doesn't like.

Dan Eberhart, a major Republican donor, said that while Trump might be missing a chance to speak to a wider audience of voters who don't typically follow the daily churn of politics, he was taking an important stand.

"Trump is right to put his foot down. They are unilaterally changing the rules," Eberhart said. "A virtual debate is going to water down the back and forth and deprive the viewers of how the leaders handle confrontation."

By...yelling at them? Is that what's missing?

Alex Conant, a veteran of several Republican presidential campaigns and the George W. Bush White House, said it's not uncommon for sitting presidents to flub their first debate and then find their footing in the second and third.

"Trump badly needs another debate. In reality, he needs 10 more debates. And needs it as soon as possible," Conant said. "So why he would create the potential for the debate to be canceled is just not obvious."

Democrats said Trump's threat to boycott was timid and erratic, although they also doubted whether he will really follow through on it.

"I don't know why the president is afraid to participate in the debate," former Democratic presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg said on Fox News.

Matt Bennett, the executive vice president of the centrist Democratic think tank Third Way, called Trump's comments "completely bonkers," comparing it to his decision to cut off the Covid-19 relief talks with Congress when most analysts believe more economic stimulus would benefit him politically.

"He is losing — he desperately needs both good economic news and an opportunity to shake up the race," Bennett said. "He did the opposite."

Trump has since moved from "no second debate" to "move the second debate so I am healthy and can go in person". Which, of course, means he admits it's not safe to be around him right now. But that came later. It appears to be a common Trump theme, especially this week, of "tweet something suicidal, see it fail horribly, then What I Meant Was shortly after".

- - - Updated - - -

Honestly, I think a combination of 1 and 4 is probably closest to the truth.

I suppose I am ruling out the idea of hybrids for no good reason. Point taken.

[kaid]

Honestly, I think a combination of 1 and 4 is probably closest to the truth.

Unless they have some internals showing something very different shifting money to the south seems like more of a play to try to keep things from turning into a blow out. If the race is close the courts could give it to him. If he loses in enough states even one or two states worth of court cases may not be enough to save him or the overall numbers would be so slanted the scotus would not risk just dubbing him president least they lose all credibility.

[Edge-]

Awww man I was WAITING for the fly conspiracy theories to start and I was not disappointed:

https://twitter.com/leilaclaire/stat...644486144?s=20

Man, I own a few old Dilbert books and like...I'm starting to feel kinda gross about that at this point.