Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[Thepersona]

I didn't say they were? Just provided an update as per whatever data is available.

Did those polls that you just post capture the tax returns scandal?

[Egomaniac]

I didn't say they were? Just provided an update as per whatever data is available.

Well, the question was about when post-debate polls would be released because he had already been looking at the pre-debate polls...

[Milchshake]

Did those polls that you just post capture the tax returns scandal?

Pro tip: you want to wait for the higher quality telephone polls. They gather the best data. But take time to complete.



At least 2 million people have already voted in the 2020 general election!

[Grapemask]

Was in RCP a few minutes ago and didnt see anything new regarding polls. Ya know when we'll see the first post debate ones?

It seems like no one is expecting much of a post-debate bounce. Fivethirtyeight has done some minor analysis from their own live polling and some other sources, including here, but I think everyone has about the same takeaway: Trump maybe lost a point for another bout of his flagrant racism, Biden maybe gained a point, but no minds were changed.

I don't think there are any minds left to change. It's the same reason his poll numbers haven't shifted meaningfully away from 43% since about August 2017. We all made up our minds years ago. "Undecided" voters know exactly how they want to vote, they just want to know if they can justify it to themselves or others. They need Biden to look weak enough that they can either justify a Trump vote or not voting at all. Some members of my family fall into that latter camp - diehard conservatives with enough sense to not vote Trump but too much tribalism to ever vote Democrat, so every day is an endless parade of "I guess I have to vote Biden, but (X REASON) so maybe both sides are bad and I should just stay home?"

[Endus]

It seems like no one is expecting much of a post-debate bounce. Fivethirtyeight has done some minor analysis from their own live polling and some other sources, including here, but I think everyone has about the same takeaway: Trump maybe lost a point for another bout of his flagrant racism, Biden maybe gained a point, but no minds were changed.

I don't think there are any minds left to change. It's the same reason his poll numbers haven't shifted meaningfully away from 43% since about August 2017. We all made up our minds years ago. "Undecided" voters know exactly how they want to vote, they just want to know if they can justify it to themselves or others. They need Biden to look weak enough that they can either justify a Trump vote or not voting at all. Some members of my family fall into that latter camp - diehard conservatives with enough sense to not vote Trump but too much tribalism to ever vote Democrat, so every day is an endless parade of "I guess I have to vote Biden, but (X REASON) so maybe both sides are bad and I should just stay home?"

Trump could live-stream himself literally fucking a chicken, and he'd maybe lose a single point. There'd be a ton of "how do you know it's a real chicken?" and "hah, the chicken is the libs!" and so forth. Trump doesn't actually matter. Nobody votes for him because of who he is and what he does. They vote for him because he's the incarnation of "fuck the libs", and that's literally all that matters to his voters. They aren't "single issue voters", they're "zero issue voters". There is literally not one single issue that would cause their vote to sway.

Ties to Russia? Nawp.
Cheating on his wife with porn stars? Hah.
Lying? As if.
Defrauding people? Yeah, right.
Screwing over the American people in the face of a pandemic killing hundreds of thousands? Gotta get them libs, though, right?

Literally not one possible thing that could get them to change their votes. He could rip his skin-mask off and expose that he's a Reptilon from Throtticus Seven. He could reveal he's literally the Antichrist and Apocalypse is Now and PREPARE FOR DEMISE. He could slaughter, cook, and eat a human baby on live television, and they'd only care if it was the baby of a good, white, Christian, American conservative family, and even then, only a little.

Zero issue voters.

[Milchshake]

I don't think there are any minds left to change. It's the same reason his poll numbers haven't shifted meaningfully away from 43% since about August 2017. We all made up our minds years ago. "Undecided" voters know exactly how they want to vote, they just want to know if they can justify it to themselves or others. They need Biden to look weak enough that they can either justify a Trump vote or not voting at all. Some members of my family fall into that latter camp - diehard conservatives with enough sense to not vote Trump but too much tribalism to ever vote Democrat, so every day is an endless parade of "I guess I have to vote Biden, but (X REASON) so maybe both sides are bad and I should just stay home?"

This is a really important point. The GOP and their allies have relied on this type of Psychological Warfare since the Southern Strategy.
We need to understand that the barrage of threats is to create doubt about the election to get people not to vote at all.

Which is why it's important to push back against all these fake Bernie supporters trying to discourage others from voting.


FYI-check out Lincoln Project soon ...
They're saying they obtained tapes of Trump's debate prep - maybe GOP/Trump is caught on tape plotting to take advantage of Joe's disability... maybe some racists blurbs as well.

[Antiganon]

This is a really important point. The GOP and their allies have relied on this type of Psychological Warfare since the Southern Strategy.
We need to understand that the barrage of threats is to create doubt about the election to get people not to vote at all.

Which is why it's important to push back against all these fake Bernie supporters trying to discourage others from voting.

I mean sure in the context of 2020 yeah fake progressive concern trolls are a problem for the people who get their news from social media.

The bigger issue is that Election Day needs to be a mandatory paid holiday, businesses open on election day need to give workers paid time off THAT DAY to vote, and we need to pass a law making voting compulsory, while also adding a "none of the above" and "I do not want to cast a ballot" option to the form.

[omerome]

This is a really important point. The GOP and their allies have relied on this type of Psychological Warfare since the Southern Strategy.
We need to understand that the barrage of threats is to create doubt about the election to get people not to vote at all.

Which is why it's important to push back against all these fake Bernie supporters trying to discourage others from voting.


FYI-check out Lincoln Project soon ...
They're saying they obtained tapes of Trump's debate prep - maybe GOP/Trump is caught on tape plotting to take advantage of Joe's disability... maybe some racists blurbs as well.

It's just a satirical video.

https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/s...20854471479296

[DingDongKing]

Well, the question was about when post-debate polls would be released because he had already been looking at the pre-debate polls...

And? I was quite clear with the timeline for the said polls. So chill out.

Did those polls that you just post capture the tax returns scandal?

I would say highly unlikely. It's such a wide time period that I would say post 27th September polls would be indicative of that.

[Egomaniac]

And? I was quite clear with the timeline for the said polls. So chill out.

I'm just not sure why'd you'd quote me with that response instead of the person asking about polls. And I'm quite chill, thanks...but you seem like you might need to relax a bit.

[Milchshake]

This caption from the debate totally broke my ability to snark.

[Edge-]

It’s a couple of days old, but I want to borrow Guess The Speaker:

I was so utterly delighted to see Gabbard, a complete political nobody now that she will be out of Congress soon, sharing misinformation from a known misinformation source propping up conspiracy theories pushed by the Trump administration and Russia.

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This caption from the debate totally broke my ability to snark.

Can't tell if centaur, depends, or deformity.

But damn man, Biden ain't got no junk in that trunk. Poor Jill ain't got no booty to smack, what a shame.

[PhaelixWW]

Can't tell if centaur, depends, or deformity.

¿Por qué no los tres?

Those are not mutually exclusive options...

[Thekri]

I was so utterly delighted to see Gabbard, a complete political nobody now that she will be out of Congress soon, sharing misinformation from a known misinformation source propping up conspiracy theories pushed by the Trump administration and Russia.

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Can't tell if centaur, depends, or deformity.

But damn man, Biden ain't got no junk in that trunk. Poor Jill ain't got no booty to smack, what a shame.

Some of it is that Trump gets his suits cut really weird. It wouldn't look so awful if they didn't try to take in the back so much. It gives him that strange back profile. I am pretty sure the reason is because it makes him look pretty good from the waist up, so he doesn't look bad as long as you are just looking over the podium.

As far as Biden, I don't think anyone was voting for him based on Sex appeal. We all know that demographic went to Elizabeth Warren, with her hot BDSM relationships with 20 year old marines and what not.

[Edge-]

As far as Biden, I don't think anyone was voting for him based on Sex appeal. We all know that demographic went to Elizabeth Warren, with her hot BDSM relationships with 20 year old marines and what not.

So...have I been totally misinterpreting the "Riden with Biden" line this whole time then? Because it's sure sounding like it...hawkward.

[Ivanstone]

But damn man, Biden ain't got no junk in that trunk. Poor Jill ain't got no booty to smack, what a shame.

[pathora44]

It’s a couple of days old, but I want to borrow Guess The Speaker:



For reference, that “evidence” was claiming Omar is stealing ballots and has some money scheme to cheat elections.

Tulsi Gabbard:
https://twitter.com/tulsigabbard/sta...68812883496966

Jesus Christ she is either really stupid or just pushing real hard to get Conservative voters. This is why she was called a Russian Asset because she pushes all these Russian created or backed conspiracies. Just go full GOP Gabbard no one left of Mitt Romney is buying your snake oil any more.

[PhaelixWW]

Lulz. The first post-debate poll has been released, and it has Biden at +13.

I mean, it's just one poll, but still... Lulz.

[Kathandira]

Lulz. The first post-debate poll has been released, and it has Biden at +13.

I mean, it's just one poll, but still... Lulz.

If Trump behaves the same way again, I fully expect to see that number grow.

[Edge-]

Lulz. The first post-debate poll has been released, and it has Biden at +13.

I mean, it's just one poll, but still... Lulz.

And a C- poll at that. I'll wait to start cheering, but I genuinely hope it's indicative of a bigger swing than I anticipated.

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If Trump behaves the same way again, I fully expect to see that number grow.

If there's another debate. I genuinely wonder if his campaign will agree to further debates if the committee decides to start cutting off mics. Because interrupting and bullying is his whole strategy, and denying him that leaves him with nothing.