Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[Paranoid Android]

No, the best case scenario would be Biden winning all 50 states, cause then it would show how fucking stupid we were for letting Trump get elected in the first place and it would be a mea culpa to the world. Anything less than that, shows the country has a LOT to learn and atone for.

Yes, I just want a win. I will still be amazed if this is close. Happy but slightly disappointed if Biden doesn't get over say the 304 mark Trump won. Yes, Electoral College is stupid with winner takes all but I'm basically stating I will be perplexed if he wins states that are not full Trumpkin, even though he can.

[Redwyrm]

Hey look! Two cases of election fraud...



Oh, wait. That's just two rich white people voting by mail. NVM

[Forogil]

Your first point is a fallacy. Increasing sample size would not lower the MoE unless it is several orders of magnitude higher, i.e. 1,000 to 1,000,000 and even then the confidence interval would be lowered by one percentage point. That's the fundamental basis for statistics and probability.

Eh?

If you increase the sampling size by 1000 your margin of error should decrease by a factor of 31.6, and not just by a percentage point.
Obviously that assumes the sampling is fair, as the systematic bias is not reduced.

However, you can also decrease the margin of error (both statistical and to some extent systematic) by using data for different sub-populations (men/women, education, race, etc) in a good way.

[snorgas]

No, the best case scenario would be Biden winning all 50 states, cause then it would show how fucking stupid we were for letting Trump get elected in the first place and it would be a mea culpa to the world. Anything less than that, shows the country has a LOT to learn and atone for.

Sorry, but you lost the trust of the world when you elected a religious maniac to high office in 2000.

There is zero probability of the US being let back into the international community. You are clearly oblivious to how the rest of the world views you: It fucking hates you. Russia, China etc aren't popular but it is not even close.

The idea that you can elect another senile warmongering racist with access to nukes as an apologia for the last one makes absolutely no sense.

[cubby]

That was a hella easy "no" at least. I don't mind if there are obvious garbage ones, 24 just hits me because there's some good shit in there I like and it does make some improvements on the existing legislation, but the removal of "Devices" from the categories of data sales (just individual/family now) and the increase in the minimum sale threshhold from 50K to 100K really rubs me the wrong way. Not a fan of putting the onus on individuals to manually request opting out of data collection/sales rather than forcing online companies to ask user for permission, which I could live with were it not for some of the other issues.

In other news - https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/26/healt...vid/index.html



Reminder -

The "death panels" Republicans whinged and pearl clutched about in 2008 over the Affordable Care Act, which were never a thing under Obama, exist in a very real way in Trump's America. Doctors are literally deciding if grandma and/or grandpa get hospital treatment or not, and if the hospital is overcrowded then older covid victims may be shit outta luck.

Remember about the fears of "rationing health care" under a M4A plan? It's very real under the current private insurance system.

And the idiot Trump Cult Followers don't realize that Trump's covid treatment was all a version of M4A.

[TexasRules]

Biden holds an 8 point lead with only 8 days left, with 60 million people already voting.

I think we're gonna be fine.

I don't believe in polls, but you guys froth over them like lemmings, so ...enjoy

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...se_watch_oct26

Trump 48%, Biden 47%

[Machismo]

I don't believe in polls, but you guys froth over them like lemmings, so ...enjoy

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...se_watch_oct26

Trump 48%, Biden 47%

I haven't been able to get anyone to answer this.

Why do you support a guy who keeps white supremacists as senior staff?

https://www.splcenter.org/stephen-mi...eitbart-emails

[Deja Thoris]

I don't believe in polls, but you guys froth over them like lemmings, so ...enjoy

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...se_watch_oct26

Trump 48%, Biden 47%

Posting something you don't believe in. How Trumpish.

[Thepersona]

I don't believe in polls, but you guys froth over them like lemmings, so ...enjoy

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...se_watch_oct26

Trump 48%, Biden 47%

Ah, look the one poll that has Dotardito Up.

In real news, Reuters/Ipsos just released a new poll:

Wisconsin:

Biden 53% (+9)

Trump 44%

Michigan:

Biden 51% (+7)

Trump 44%

Pennsylvania:

Biden 50% (+5)

Trump 45%

Florida:

Biden 50% (+4)

Trump 46%

Arizona:

Biden 49% (+3)

Trump 46%

[kaelleria]

I don't believe in polls, but you guys froth over them like lemmings, so ...enjoy

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...se_watch_oct26

Trump 48%, Biden 47%

Some polling sponsored by groups that are conservative (or are Rasmussen) have this race tightening... But I really don't see it in any other piece of data that's out there.

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/...25749016817672

[Endus]

Eh?

If you increase the sampling size by 1000 your margin of error should decrease by a factor of 31.6, and not just by a percentage point.
Obviously that assumes the sampling is fair, as the systematic bias is not reduced.

However, you can also decrease the margin of error (both statistical and to some extent systematic) by using data for different sub-populations (men/women, education, race, etc) in a good way.

This simply is not true.

For pretty much any given sizeable population, a sample size around 1000 reliably gives you 95% confidence in the results, +/- 3%. There's some mild variations based on the actual population, but it's marginal; a population of 30,000 needs exactly 1030 people in the sample to hit this, and 300 million needs 1067.

Increasing that sample size to 2000, for a population like the USA's 250 million voters, and for the same 95% confidence level, the interval is reduced to just +/- 2.19%

About a percentage point. Slightly less.

This is basic statistical mathematics. Feel free to use any survey size calculator, like this one, to check; https://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm

If you mean something other than confidence interval or level when you say "margin of error", then you're talking about something that really has nothing at all to do with sample sizes or statistical mathematics to begin with and you're really gonna have to explain yourself.

[PhaelixWW]

I don't believe in polls, but you guys froth over them like lemmings, so ...enjoy

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...se_watch_oct26

Trump 48%, Biden 47%

I don't believe for a second that Trump has 23% of the Democrat and 27% of the Black votes, nor do I think his approval is at 52%.

That Rasmussen poll is just as much trash as they mostly are.

[Belize]

I don't believe in polls, but you guys froth over them like lemmings, so ...enjoy

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...se_watch_oct26

Trump 48%, Biden 47%

The only thing I have right now are cramps from laughing at you posting Rasmussen.

[cubby]

Sorry, but you lost the trust of the world when you elected a religious maniac to high office in 2000.

There is zero probability of the US being let back into the international community. You are clearly oblivious to how the rest of the world views you: It fucking hates you. Russia, China etc aren't popular but it is not even close.

The idea that you can elect another senile warmongering racist with access to nukes as an apologia for the last one makes absolutely no sense.

This smells like Jettidipshit.

I love that you can't even get a date right. Not that anything you say rises above cultist liar of course....

[Infraction]

I don't believe in polls, but you guys froth over them like lemmings, so ...enjoy

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...se_watch_oct26

Trump 48%, Biden 47%

And you still don't even understand the basics of how polls work. No wonder you don't "believe" in science - none of your cult worshipping klan does.

Meanwhile, in the real world: Trump is trailing Biden significantly in aggregate polling.

[Felya]

Biden confuses Trump with George Bush.
He is reaching dementia levels not thought possible before

What’s your excuse for not knowing the host’s name was George? If Biden has dementia, what’s your excuse for thinking he wasn’t talking to George Lopez, but about George Bush? Why would you think he was talking to Bush, instead of the host? What the fuck?

[Milchshake]

Tim Pool is the Candace Owens of incels.

Heads up, these guys are rebranding themselves as InCons now ...

I mean, if the slipper fits.

[Felya]

I don't believe in polls, but you guys froth over them like lemmings, so ...enjoy

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...se_watch_oct26

Trump 48%, Biden 47%

Welcome to 4 pages ago:

https://www.mmo-champion.com/threads...ction/page1138

[Rasulis]

I don't believe in polls, but you guys froth over them like lemmings, so ...enjoy

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...se_watch_oct26

Trump 48%, Biden 47%

You don't have to believe in polls. I have not looked at polls for quite awhile. I prefer the early voting numbers by party affiliation. Right now, PA, NC and IA look pretty bad for GOP. Democrats lead in FL has remain steady at 350k votes over the weekend. Unfortunately Texas does not report voters turnout by party affiliations. However, the combined early votes in the counties that voted for Clinton in 2016 as percentage of the total votes in Texas is 7 pts higher than what it was in 2016.

[cubby]

It's not, but shows you have no fucking clue what you're talking point. I have no need to hide who I am or what I believe. You however have a huge bias and ignorant problem you should try taking control over. Nice Trolling of my name, good to see this stuff goes without any repercussions.

What I'm talking point? Perhaps you should take that introspective vein and apply it to yourself and your own issues. But nice to see your ad hominem attacks are still outshining any relevant points you ever make. It was fair assumption, given how often you're on break.

Meanwhile - get out and vote!

[Edge-]

https://trac.syr.edu/tracreports/crim/629/

The latest available case-by-case federal government records show that in September 2020 federal prosecutors brought criminal charges against eleven (11) individuals for child sex traf*ficking under 18 USC 1591. Altogether in FY 2020, the federal government reports 180 new prosecutions where child sex trafficking was the lead charge. This is about the same number of criminal prosecutions as last year where there were 178 such prosecutions.

The number of prosecutions for child sex trafficking has significantly declined during the Trump Administration, after climbing steadily during the Obama years. Prosecutions reached a peak of 273 and 277 in FY 2016 and FY 2017, respectively. Since then, the number of cases dipped to 221 in FY 2018, and then continued to decline to less than 200 in FYs 2019 and 2020. See Figure 1. (See also Table 1 at the end of the report.

Trump had better hope Q-anon nutters don't find out that he's letting child sex traffickers off the hook and reducing the rates of prosecution that were going up under Obama.

Donald Trump apparently doesn't care much about child sex trafficking.