Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[Milchshake]

New model from 538 for Dem odds of flipping senate seats:

Hickenlooper 84%
Kelly 79%
WARNOCK 64%
Cunningham 63%
Gideon 61%
Greenfield 57%
Ossoff 33%
Bullock 32%

[cubby]

New model from 538 for Dem odds of flipping senate seats:

Hickenlooper 84%
Kelly 79%
WARNOCK 64%
Cunningham 63%
Gideon 61%
Greenfield 57%
Ossoff 33%
Bullock 32%

Those first five are all it would take to definitively flip the Senate. Four if Biden wins. It would be nice to be sitting on more than a +1 majority...not to get greedy or anything.

[beanman12345]

New model from 538 for Dem odds of flipping senate seats:

Hickenlooper 84%
Kelly 79%
WARNOCK 64%
Cunningham 63%
Gideon 61%
Greenfield 57%
Ossoff 33%
Bullock 32%

IIRC with georgia both Ossoff and Warnock would need 50%+1 and both races have enough people that I believe a runoff on both races is likely so that might not happen till late january at earliest, so regardless Republicans would be down 2 for that period.

[Edge-]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/blame-...tshow?ref=home

Derek Oden, executive director of the Douglas County Republican Party, commenting on the Trump campaign leaving hundreds of supporters stranded in the freezing cold, leading to some being hospitalized for hypothermia -

He raved about “an amazing atmosphere; tailgating, positive, flags, vendors everywhere” but, post-event, he said the “real problem was the 40 shuttle buses (cap. 54/each) were getting trapped in the unload parking lot and unable to make returns quickly.”

“A lot of police driving back and forth along the hike and stopping for folks having trouble with the hike,” Oden said in the email. “Overall, it was a lot of fun.”

I don't know if being stranded out in the cold, in the middle of the night, and getting hypothermia is "fun", but we've all got different definitions for words. It's a "feels" thing.

[Breccia]

New model from 538 for Dem odds of flipping senate seats:

Hickenlooper 84%
Kelly 79%
WARNOCK 64%
Cunningham 63%
Gideon 61%
Greenfield 57%
Ossoff 33%
Bullock 32%

Not 538, but Graham is tied up in his race.

[Benggaul]

Vermont secretary of state formally asks Kavanaugh to correct opinion

Vermont's secretary of state formally asked Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh to correct an opinion he wrote Monday that mistakenly said Vermont had made no changes to its election rules due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

In a letter to the Supreme Court on Wednesday, Secretary of State Jim Condos explained that Vermont had, for the first time, sent mail-in ballots to every registered voter and also began counting votes earlier than in previous years.

In a Monday night order rejecting a Democratic bid to allow Wisconsin to count ballots returned up to six days after Election Day, Kavanaugh wrote a concurring opinion that cited Vermont as a state that hadn't made changes to its "ordinary election rules."

Kavanaugh wrote: "To be sure, in light of the pandemic, some state legislatures have exercised their Article I, §4, authority over elections and have changed their election rules for the November 2020 election. Of particular relevance here, a few States such as Mississippi no longer require that absentee ballots be received before election day. ... Other States such as Vermont, by contrast, have decided not to make changes to their ordinary election rules, including to the election-day deadline for receipt of absentee ballots."

The variation, Kavanaugh said, "reflects our constitutional system of federalism. Different state legislatures may make different choices."

In his letter to the court, Condos said, "Vermont is not an accurate comparison for the assertion Justice Kavanaugh has made."

The changes the state made, Condos said, meant Vermont did not have to change its Election Day deadline to receive mail-in ballots.

The Supreme Court's public information office did not immediately return a request for comment Wednesday. Justices regularly correct written opinions, though there is no obligation to do so or to highlight those changes to the public.

Justice Frat Boy should be impeached at the earliest opportunity for proving time and again he has no business being on the SCOTUS--and possibly nowhere near a courtroom in general with the exception of being deposed to find out just exactly where all of that debt he had disappeared to.

[Edge-]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/fox-ne...n-case-he-wins

“This is what I warned about during the impeachment, if you lower the bar so much and if you create this simple threshold for impeachment, then you have to apply that universally to both sides,” Five co-host Lisa “Kennedy” Montgomery noted. “If Tony Bobulinski is saying Hunter Biden knew about all of this, if any of that is minutely proven and Joe Biden took a dime from any of that, then why wouldn’t you, if you are using the same threshold and the same standard, why would you not impeach Joe Biden?”

After Kennedy said this is why the “entire script will inconveniently flip” on the issue of impeachment, Gutfeld took that thought and ran with it.

“Yes, impeachment is contagious,” he said to liberal co-host Juan Williams. “Juan, why don’t the Republicans start preemptive impeachment on Joe Biden, in case he wins? They could start it tomorrow, what do you think?”

Not an elected official, but given the influence of Fox News for Republicans...any bets on if we'll hear this repeated by elected Republicans ahead of the inauguration should Biden win?

You know, despite both the WSJ and Fox News pouring through all of Bobulinski's documents and finding precisely zero mentions or vague references to Joe Biden.

[kaelleria]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/fox-ne...n-case-he-wins



Not an elected official, but given the influence of Fox News for Republicans...any bets on if we'll hear this repeated by elected Republicans ahead of the inauguration should Biden win?

You know, despite both the WSJ and Fox News pouring through all of Bobulinski's documents and finding precisely zero mentions or vague references to Joe Biden.

That's completely ignoring that the House is the only body that can initiate impeachment. Way to know your Constitution, Faux News.

[DingDongKing]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/fox-ne...n-case-he-wins



Not an elected official, but given the influence of Fox News for Republicans...any bets on if we'll hear this repeated by elected Republicans ahead of the inauguration should Biden win?

You know, despite both the WSJ and Fox News pouring through all of Bobulinski's documents and finding precisely zero mentions or vague references to Joe Biden.

I mean, she clearly doesn't know how the process of impeachment works. It has to be initiated by the House of Representatives, which is highly likely to remain in Democrat control no matter whether Biden wins the election or the Senate gets flipped. So yeah, she's clearly a dingus.

[Edge-]

That's completely ignoring that the House is the only body that can initiate impeachment. Way to know your Constitution, Faux News.

Hey, are you expecting a simple talk show host to be a Constitutional scholar?! Nobody knows these arcane rules, why do they even exist in the first place?! It's not fair, I tells ya!

But yeah, that'll be amusing to watch Republicans in the minority replace "Repeal and replace the ACA!" with "Pointlessly waste time trying to impeach as the minority party!" in the next term.

[DingDongKing]

Hey, are you expecting a simple talk show host to be a Constitutional scholar?! Nobody knows these arcane rules, why do they even exist in the first place?! It's not fair, I tells ya!

But yeah, that'll be amusing to watch Republicans in the minority replace "Repeal and replace the ACA!" with "Pointlessly waste time trying to impeach as the minority party!" in the next term.

Maybe it's wishful thinking, but I would expect the GOP to go full whitewash mode and try to erase Trump from existence. Otherwise it's a sunk ship.

[Kaleredar]

Hopefully a good sign, here.

Axios: Supreme Court won't expedite Pennsylvania GOP's request to block mail-in ballot extension

I actually find it somewhat concerning... as per:

Between the lines: Conservative Justices Alito, Thomas and Gorsuch wrote in a separate opinion that it's too close to the election to take up the case, but it could still be reviewed after the election if late-arriving ballots make a difference.

Earlier on Wednesday, Pennsylvania's state government directed election officials to separate ballots received before and after 8 p.m. on Election Day in case the Supreme Court decides the late-arriving ballots must be thrown out.

In essence, they're reserving the right to call the Pennsylvania race in Trump's favor if the late mail-in ballots would hand Biden a victory otherwise.

It's a pretty stupid distinction to make... "These extra votes will be counted and are fine, unless they decide the result of the Pennsylvania election potentially in a way we don't like, in which case they won't be counted and aren't to be trusted."

[nonameelf]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/fox-ne...n-case-he-wins



Not an elected official, but given the influence of Fox News for Republicans...any bets on if we'll hear this repeated by elected Republicans ahead of the inauguration should Biden win?

You know, despite both the WSJ and Fox News pouring through all of Bobulinski's documents and finding precisely zero mentions or vague references to Joe Biden.

They're going to impeach Biden because his son did business in China?

Why didn't they support Trump's impeachment then? He does business in China and pays more taxes to China than the US.

[DingDongKing]

I actually find it somewhat concerning... as per:



In essence, they're reserving the right to call the Pennsylvania race in Trump's favor if the late mail-in ballots would hand Biden a victory otherwise.

It's a pretty stupid distinction to make... "These extra votes will be counted and are fine, unless they decide the result of the Pennsylvania election potentially in a way we don't like, in which case they won't be counted and aren't to be trusted."

That's pretty much it. They see it as their Florida from Bush v Gore.

[Redwyrm]

This is the kind of shit Republicans pull in Florida

Amendment #4

Amendment 4 would require constitutional amendments to be approved by voters at two successive general elections to become effective. Currently in Florida, if voters approve an amendment at one general election, it becomes part of the constitution.

In Florida, constitutional amendments require a 60% supermajority vote to become effective. This requirement was added to the constitution in 2006. Under Amendment 4, the supermajority requirement would apply to both elections.

So not only do you have to have a 60% majority to pass a constitutional admentment but, you have to do it twice in back to back elections. One being a Presidential election and the other on an off year.

GOOD LUCK

[Kaleredar]

That's pretty much it. They see it as their Florida from Bush v Gore.

Here's hoping it doesn't only come down to Pennsylvania. I know they don't want to be known as the next Florida.

[DingDongKing]

Here's hoping it doesn't only come down to Pennsylvania. I know they don't want to be known as the next Florida.

Honestly, rural Pennsylvanians just seem like a bunch of very easily misled people. But I'm guessing that's the Kentucky part of the pea in their skull.

[Edge-]

This is the kind of shit Republicans pull in Florida

Amendment #4



So not only do you have to have a 60% majority to pass a constitutional admentment but, you have to do it twice in back to back elections. One being a Presidential election and the other on an off year.

GOOD LUCK

So...these "living documents" are being put in stasis by them?

This is the same shit Uber/Lyft and the gig companies are pulling in CA with Prop 22, which exempts them from AB5, which made gig workers employees rather than contractors. Those companies have been dumping well over $100M into the proposition which would allow them to ignore the law, and they slipped a similar poison pill in there.

Most propositions require a 2/3 majority to repeal in the state, which is a high bar to meat but it's something that's possible. Gig companies write in a 7/8 majority needed, which is quite literally impossible on anything in a general vote, functionally making it impossible to repeal the proposition.

Republicans are acting like shady gig companies? I'm shocked, shocked I tells ya.

[Redwyrm]

So...these "living documents" are being put in stasis by them?

This is the same shit Uber/Lyft and the gig companies are pulling in CA with Prop 22, which exempts them from AB5, which made gig workers employees rather than contractors. Those companies have been dumping well over $100M into the proposition which would allow them to ignore the law, and they slipped a similar poison pill in there.

Most propositions require a 2/3 majority to repeal in the state, which is a high bar to meat but it's something that's possible. Gig companies write in a 7/8 majority needed, which is quite literally impossible on anything in a general vote, functionally making it impossible to repeal the proposition.

Republicans are acting like shady gig companies? I'm shocked, shocked I tells ya.

They didn't like it when florida citizens voted to limit the number of students per classroom and didn't like it when we voted for legalized marijuana. They fought against both of the PASSED amendments. So even though the voters voted in a 60% majority to get this stuff passed, the florida legislature threw a hissy fit and held their breath, delaying and I think not implementing at least one of those.

[Edge-]

They didn't like it when florida citizens voted to limit the number of students per classroom and didn't like it when we voted for legalized marijuana. They fought against both of the PASSED amendments. So even though the voters voted in a 60% majority to get this stuff passed, the florida legislature threw a hissy fit and held their breath, delaying and I think not implementing at least one of those.

I know they functionally repealed the measure that enfranchised ex-felons with the bullshit poll tax that should absolutely be unconstitutional. I hope Floridians figure out that the Republicans they elect in the state keep ratfucking them sooner or later and either vote in Democrats or manage to find some Republicans that can achieve an orgasm without needing to shit on people in the Legislature.