Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[TheramoreIsTheBomb]

With how badly they reacted to a black man being president having a black/indian woman be president must be close to literal hell for them.

i cant wait to have a black woman to be the first female US president. this will send a huge crack through the racial ceiling and shatter the women-cant-work/do-male-jobs ceiling that wasnt broken in 2016

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can we get a Trumpskin version of this tomorrow or before tomorrow

[postman1782]

Question to the Americans in this thread, i see that over the last 10 years the libertarian party has increased their share of the vote considerably, if they were to have another strong vote this time round which one of the main parties would this impact on the most? are most of the people that would vote for the libertarian party ex democrat or ex republican voters?

Ex Republican, as they are mainly conservative. @Machismo is probably the most consistent libertarian on this forum.

[Poopymonster]

I mean he's not using any good method for it he's just taking 2016 election results and adding votes to Trump.



So basically complete ass pull.

At the risk of bring a grammer...oh fuck it. It's spelled Nazi not Nanzy.

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From California, no less.

You mean The Left Coast?

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Question to the Americans in this thread, i see that over the last 10 years the libertarian party has increased their share of the vote considerably, if they were to have another strong vote this time round which one of the main parties would this impact on the most? are most of the people that would vote for the libertarian party ex democrat or ex republican voters?

Ex conservatives mostly. If they got more votes, it'd affect the most likely Republicans. But still be useless. Right now voting third party is akin to "I watched the Eagles and the Cowboys play last night. But if enough people watched it, I know the Dodgers would have won."

[CastletonSnob]

Trump only has a 10 in 100 chance of winning the election, according to 538.

Life is good.

And before you tell me not to get complacent and vote, I voted 2 weeks ago.

[Machismo]

Question to the Americans in this thread, i see that over the last 10 years the libertarian party has increased their share of the vote considerably, if they were to have another strong vote this time round which one of the main parties would this impact on the most? are most of the people that would vote for the libertarian party ex democrat or ex republican voters?

Libertarians tend to be conservatives, or former Republicans.

As for their market share, libertarians aren't really making much of an impact to either party, especially in the vote for President. You can thank the Electoral College for that.

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i cant wait to have a black woman to be the first female US president. this will send a huge crack through the racial ceiling and shatter the women-cant-work/do-male-jobs ceiling that wasnt broken in 2016

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can we get a Trumpskin version of this tomorrow or before tomorrow

Then, why are you such a strong Trump supporter?

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This Election is gonna be a huge game-changer for Moochamp OT. I foresee a lot of people rage quitting the forums and getting banned on Election Day

I'm sure you will be quite happy if Trump wins this election.

[TheramoreIsTheBomb]

nope. it's Biden: 51% - Trump:48%

Arizona is leaning back red so Pennsylvania will decide the election.

[CastletonSnob]

nope. it's Biden: 51% - Trump:48%

Arizona is leaning back red so Pennsylvania will decide the election.

Where'd you got those numbers?

[TheramoreIsTheBomb]

Where'd you got those numbers?

ABC, 538, Politico, and more. I'm also looking at the polling-leaning numbers from several websites. I really hope Biden pulls through. We can't take 4 more years of this bullshit

[CastletonSnob]

ABC, 538, Politico, and more. I'm also looking at the polling-leaning numbers from several websites. I really hope Biden pulls through. We can't take 4 more years of this bullshit

538 gives Biden an 89 in 100 chance of winning, and Trump a 10 in 100 chance.

[Machismo]

ABC, 538, Politico, and more. I'm also looking at the polling-leaning numbers from several websites. I really hope Biden pulls through. We can't take 4 more years of this bullshit

Uh huh... sure.

https://www.mmo-champion.com/threads...ampaign-Thread

[Belize]

... people being sore winners.

TBF, if Biden wins, I think we're entitled a little shittalking for the last 4 years of trolling and being insulted.

[Poopymonster]

Uh huh... sure.

https://www.mmo-champion.com/threads...ampaign-Thread

Now now now, now that their guy appears to be losing, they've had their Come To Jesus moment.

[TheramoreIsTheBomb]

538 gives Biden an 89 in 100 chance of winning, and Trump a 10 in 100 chance.

no chance at all.

[Machismo]

Now now now, now that their guy appears to be losing, they've had their Come To Jesus moment.

It's also why he's been caught lying dozens of times.

I love watching Trumpsters get caught in their own bullshit and lies.

[beanman12345]

It's also why he's been caught lying dozens of times.

I love watching Trumpsters get caught in their own bullshit and lies.

he said he was gonna vote for kanye.

[Machismo]

he said he was gonna vote for kanye.

Yeah, he lies a lot, Trumpsters tend to do that when they want to hide. I believe Tulsy Gabbard was also invoked, along with Bernie.

[beanman12345]

Yeah, he lies a lot, Trumpsters tend to do that when they want to hide. I believe Tulsy Gabbard was also invoked, along with Bernie.

yeah, i dont take anything certain posters say seriously at all.

[arandomuser]

this is probably the last election we may have that will matter, if republicans win they will turn USA into hungary and russia, i dont care about any policy or cultural issue this election, thats really the only thing people should care about.. in my opinion

[CastletonSnob]

Copy-pasted from a Reddit thread, which was copy-pasted from an article.

Here are four major reasons why this election is different.

#1. Biden’s lead is larger than any presidential race in the last 20 years

In the final weekend in 2000, George W. Bush led by 2 points in an averaging of national polls before he won. In 2004, Bush lead by 2.3 points before he won. In 2008, Barack Obama led by 6.4 percent before he won. In 2012, it was a narrow half percent before he won again. In 2016, Clinton was ahead by an average of 2.9 percent nationally, which was still within the margin of error, before she won the popular vote but lost the Electoral College. Biden, according to the FiveThirtyEight election analysis, is up 8.6 percent.

No, national polls do not tell exactly what is going to happen in the Electoral College and thus who will win the White House. The presidential race is a state-by-state contest. After all, in 2016 Clinton did win the popular vote by 2.1 percent, making the national polling both spot on and totally irrelevant.

But the general rule of thumb is that if a presidential candidate is winning by at least 5 percent nationally then the state-by-state analysis is largely academic. In 2008, the polls were spot on predicting Obama’s eventual 7.2 percent win. That netted him 365 electoral votes and winning states that no Democrat had won in a generation, including Indiana and North Carolina. Who cared about Florida polls then?

Biden’s lead in the closing days in 2020 is not just significantly bigger than Clinton’s in 2016, it is bigger than Obama’s in 2008.

One more time to emphasize: Biden’s lead in national polls right now is stronger than Obama’s was in 2008 when he won big.

#2. There are, more or less, no third parties to gum things up

The biggest structural change to 2016 is not discussed enough. Third parties — specifically the Green Party and Libertarian Party — had banner years in 2016. It made sense. Trump and Clinton were the least liked presidential nominees in modern American history and voters were looking for alternatives.

That is not the case this year. In 2020, third parties are basically irrelevant. Few Americans could probably even name who is running on these tickets. And consider this: In 2016, the Libertarian ticket featured two serious former Republican governors. In 2020, the Libertarian ticket involves a South Carolina part-time psychology professor with a running mate who is a podcaster that rose through politics as the running mate earlier this year to satirical candidate Vermin Supreme of Massachusetts.

In 2016, Green Party candidate Jill Stein got more votes in Wisconsin than the difference between Trump and Clinton there. She was also a factor in Pennsylvania. This time, the Green Party and Libertarian parties are getting such a small level of support that vaunted polling organizations like the NBC News/Wall Street Journal collaboration didn’t even ask about those candidates, but lumped them into the “other” category.

If you dive into the polling numbers in 2020, you will find that three developments have gone Biden’s way in polling. First, white working-class women have moved slightly away from Trump over concerns about health care. Second, the number of seniors backing Trump has dropped due to COVID-19. Third, that basically, all third-party voters in 2016 are backing Biden as the alternative to Trump.

#3. Early voting has changed how we should feel about 2020

Unlike 2016, there are simply fewer question marks about the Democratic vote in 2020. That’s because of how we vote now.

Due to the pandemic, every state has allowed some form of mail-in voting. Democrats, in particular, have decided to use this route. That means there is less guessing if people will vote. We know, with tangible evidence, that they are voting at record-breaking amounts. We know that Democrats are turning out. Democrats also know which groups are disproportionately not voting at the same levels as everyone else in 2020, like among the Latinx communities, so they are able to dispatch Kamala Harris, Julian Castro, and Democratic National Committee chairman Tom Perez to attempt to rally Latinx voters.

Clinton could do none of that in 2016. If she could have, maybe she would have showed up in Wisconsin. She famously never did.

Now all the question marks are about whether Trump can close the gap.

#4. There are no October surprises

The 2016 election toggled back and forth between whether Trump had bad news and bad poll numbers or Clinton did. It was a game of hot potato. After former FBI director Jim Comey announced days before the election he was reopening an investigation into Clinton’s e-mails, Clinton was left holding the potato.

But there is no toggling back and forth in the polls between Biden and Trump in 2020 and there isn’t a potato.

Noting has moved the polls in a big way since March except for the status of the coronavirus. A Supreme Court opening did nothing. Trump’s positive COVID-19 test did nothing. Unfounded allegations about Hunter Biden did nothing. And last week, as the nation received very good news about the country’s economy, the news was swallowed up by record-high levels of COVID-19 cases.

The 2020 presidential race hasn’t really changed in eight months and Biden’s lead is large. There is no data point anyone can credibly point to that suggests 2016 is going to happen again.

[Breccia]

Copy-pasted from a Reddit thread, which was copy-pasted from an article.

#1. Biden’s lead is larger than any presidential race in the last 20 years

It's not enough to stop intentional rigging or acts of terrorism. Which is why we see Trump doing one and his supporters doing the other. Still haven't seen much in the way of condemnation on these forums...

#2. There are, more or less, no third parties to gum things up

This is huge. The lack of undecideds basicallly meansso many people are so sick (literally and/or figuratively) of Trump's words and actions damaging the country, that they united against him. Not even Kanye makes the headlines anymore.

#3. Early voting has changed how we should feel about 2020

Again, Trump appears to be putting his massive fatass weight into fighting every vote that wasn't cast for him on Election Day by a white Christian male. Just because early voting is strong doesn't make this over.

#4. There are no October surprises

There kind of were, just not Hunter Biden's laptop.

COVID is killing an increasing number of Americans by the day.

And while Team Trump are calling the GDP bounce "growth" which is a lie, it's "recovery", the fact is that the economy is, at the cost of hundreds of thousands of lives, getting closer to breaking event. Trump can and probably should have touted this a lot harder than "oh noes, everyone is out to get me because of all that stuff I did, so I encourage acts of terrorism".

It's not over. Everything you posted is encouraging, but it's just the pep talk. Let's get out on the field and hit some goddam home runs.

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RCP reports Biden leads Trump by six points in Florida. Fucking six.

It's an outlier, and even if it was true, polls don't equal results. Results equal results. Vote.