1. #22601
    https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/st...polls-as-crazy for context on trafalgar their methodology is entirely flawed

  2. #22602
    Herald of the Titans CostinR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Valkyrst View Post
    Trafalgar's only claim to fame is 'predicting' the 2016 race.
    Even that alone would give them a lot more credit then many other races, and they didn't call the 2016 election: They called out Michigan and Pennsylvania. They called a lot of races correctly in 2018 for both Democrats and Republicans, crucially calling out Florida for both the governor and senatorial race:

    https://www.nytimes.com/article/trum...gar-group.html

    Regarding people who quoted Clinton winning the Midwest by double digits in 2016 is concerned, they have the same partisan bias issues as Traflagar. So it's a false equivalency.
    Yeah well when it's a pollster associated with the Washington Post and New York Times and gets treated completely seriously to this day despite that while Trafalgar is mocked...well then.

    I don't really care really what the biases of someone is if they are accurate with their work. This is the rather infuriating aspect about US elections: The damned pollsters are biased, not just in their personal views but also their work. If I look at X European country ( and for Americans don't think we don't have deep political divides here in many countries ) in general the polling tends to be fairly accurate. In the US? It's like a trip to Wonderland.

    So far Trafalgar has been mostly accurate in the results they've given. If they are wrong they are wrong, if they are right they are right, and when someone who has a proven track record for Michigan tells me Trump's going to win there I'm listening to that guy until he is proven otherwise.
    Last edited by CostinR; 2020-11-03 at 11:04 AM.
    "Life is one long series of problems to solve. The more you solve, the better a man you become.... Tribulations spawn in life and over and over again we must stand our ground and face them."

  3. #22603
    Quote Originally Posted by CostinR View Post
    That's not true tbh. They called a lot of races correctly in 2018 for both Democrats and Republicans, crucially calling out Florida for both the governor and sinoatrial race:

    https://www.nytimes.com/article/trum...gar-group.html


    I didn't say they haven't called anything else correctly. Per the 48 polls counted by 538, they've gotten 75% right. Which is a pretty mediocre return.

  4. #22604
    Quote Originally Posted by CostinR View Post
    That's not true tbh. They called a lot of races correctly in 2018 for both Democrats and Republicans, crucially calling out Florida for both the governor and sinoatrial race:

    https://www.nytimes.com/article/trum...gar-group.html
    He's going to be wrong, he also called out 2018 races that were safe for Republicans. 2018 was also a win for the Democrats, it's going to be a win for Biden.
    A Fetus is not a person under the 14th amendment.

    Christians are Forced Birth Fascists against Human Rights who indoctrinate and groom children. Prove me wrong.

  5. #22605
    Quote Originally Posted by CostinR View Post
    -snip-
    Can I be honest? And don't be offended. I really don't care what you think is true or isn't true.

  6. #22606
    Herald of the Titans CostinR's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Valkyrst View Post
    I didn't say they haven't called anything else correctly. Per the 48 polls counted by 538, they've gotten 75% right. Which is a pretty mediocre return.
    New York Times/Sienna - 69%
    Washington Post/ABC - 72%
    CNN/ORC - 72%
    Fox News - 72%
    NBC/Wall Street Journal - 72%

    On and on it goes on 538 with many of the "respected" pollsters.

    Quote Originally Posted by Valkyrst View Post
    Can I be honest? And don't be offended. I really don't care what you think is true or isn't true.
    Feel free to care about what you care or not, as long as people understand what could very well happen today. That's all there is to what I'm saying here: Trump can win.
    "Life is one long series of problems to solve. The more you solve, the better a man you become.... Tribulations spawn in life and over and over again we must stand our ground and face them."

  7. #22607
    Quote Originally Posted by CostinR View Post
    So far Trafalgar has been mostly accurate in the results they've given. If they are wrong they are wrong, if they are right they are right, and when someone who has a proven track record for Michigan tells me Trump's going to win there I'm listening to that guy until he is proven otherwise.
    The problem with this way of thinking about polling is it treats it as a binary X will win v.s. Y will win. The margins are important too, and Trafalgar consistently overestimates Republican margins even when Republicans do win. When you have an election with Republican upsets like 2016 of course a pollster that consistently overestimates Republicans is going to look good. But it's not like they have a perfect track record. They got Arizona wrong in 2018, for example, and their margins were also way off in races where the Republican won such as Texas in 2018.

  8. #22608
    Quote Originally Posted by CostinR View Post
    -snip-
    Can you find any post where I've said that he can't win? The vast majority here are very very aware that he can win.

    As far as Trafalgar Group is concerned, their results are extremely wonky. You can apply selective evidence to anything and claim a case.

    RE: Polls in general, I have the exact same issue with 538. Their grading is really odd. I go by one basic principle - bias exists. And it shouldn't.

    Whether a poll has bias for or against a party, it's not a good thing. Places like Atlas Intel, Insider Advantage, Susquehanna & Trafalgar are ALL setup by ex GOP hacks. They'll call a set of races right, sure they will. It's hard to get polling entirely wrong, or you'd be out of business.

    But their bias is evident. Hell, Rasmussen's Twitter is basically now just a pro-Trump feed. It's hilarious how brazen they are.
    Last edited by DingDongKing; 2020-11-03 at 11:19 AM.

  9. #22609
    Quote Originally Posted by CostinR View Post
    Just in general.

    Here's a graph on RCP to give you an idea. You can also look at it state by state. People wanna smack talk Trafalgar but they have gotten important races right in the past and they are certainly more believable then those laughable jokesters who thought Clinton was going to win the Midwest by double digits in 2016 in some states.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/el...ground-states/
    Trafalgar is rated as a C- pollster for a reason. They claimed to have Kemp winning by 12% in Georgia in 2018, and he won by less than 1% to Stacey Abrams. Sure they may call a race correctly, but be wayyyy off percentage wise.

    Literally the only 3 pollsters are heavy right leaning pollsters, and have been wrong most of the time. Like Rasmussen, Sasquatch and Trafalgar. That is the ONLY reason they are bringing the average down.

    They also don't give their methodology for their polls, which means they are highly questionable.

  10. #22610
    Trumpers can't spell.
    A Fetus is not a person under the 14th amendment.

    Christians are Forced Birth Fascists against Human Rights who indoctrinate and groom children. Prove me wrong.

  11. #22611
    Quote Originally Posted by szechuan View Post
    Trumpers can't spell.
    That started trending around 7 am Moscow time...

  12. #22612
    Quote Originally Posted by s_bushido View Post
    Maybe if this wasn't 2020. But...you know...it's 2020. And we can't have nice things this year.
    We got a really good final season 3 for Dark. Does that count?

  13. #22613
    Void Lord Felya's Avatar
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    Boo!!! 538 polling map is no longer updating... Trump never did hit single digits... ending with 10/89...
    Folly and fakery have always been with us... but it has never before been as dangerous as it is now, never in history have we been able to afford it less. - Isaac Asimov
    Every damn thing you do in this life, you pay for. - Edith Piaf
    The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. - Orwell
    No amount of belief makes something a fact. - James Randi

  14. #22614
    The Unstoppable Force Belize's Avatar
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    Good luck out there everyone.

    P.S. that fence around the WH looks pretty climbable to me.

  15. #22615
    I'm so nervous guys, how'd you deal with the election jitters?
    Quote Originally Posted by Machismo View Post
    Biden is a creepy old dude, I will not be voting for the guy.
    ^ This is from a self-proclaimed Trump-hater who goes round vote-policing, berating and insulting other users for expressing their doubts and reservations about Joe Biden. He also urges others to end relationships and friendships just to "vote Trump out". https://ibb.co/2jRnZGC He can't seem to walk the talk himself.

  16. #22616
    Quote Originally Posted by CostinR View Post
    Just in general.

    Here's a graph on RCP to give you an idea. You can also look at it state by state. People wanna smack talk Trafalgar but they have gotten important races right in the past and they are certainly more believable then those laughable jokesters who thought Clinton was going to win the Midwest by double digits in 2016 in some states.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/el...ground-states/
    I know you are really excited to see if a white supremacists is going to be re-elected.

  17. #22617
    Quote Originally Posted by lockybalboa View Post
    I'm so nervous guys, how'd you deal with the election jitters?
    block all sites that updates the count. We can save the drama for tomorrow

  18. #22618
    Quote Originally Posted by david0925 View Post
    block all sites that updates the count. We can save the drama for tomorrow
    He's trolling. He's a Trump supporter.

  19. #22619
    Void Lord Felya's Avatar
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    Trump again stranded thousands of his supporters in dark and cold Georgia night. That’s a 3rd time he has done this within a couple of weeks.

    No mater what we say about them, no one hates Trump supporters, more than Trump.
    Folly and fakery have always been with us... but it has never before been as dangerous as it is now, never in history have we been able to afford it less. - Isaac Asimov
    Every damn thing you do in this life, you pay for. - Edith Piaf
    The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. - Orwell
    No amount of belief makes something a fact. - James Randi

  20. #22620
    Quote Originally Posted by Felya View Post
    Trump again stranded thousands of his supporters in dark and cold Georgia night. That’s a 3rd time he has done this within a couple of weeks.

    No mater what we say about them, no one hates Trump supporters, more than Trump.
    More proof that right wing tribalism is cancer, those Trump Rally attenders are literally poorly educated Low IQ voters who supports Racists and Anti-Science. Some of them even think they're voting against Obama.
    A Fetus is not a person under the 14th amendment.

    Christians are Forced Birth Fascists against Human Rights who indoctrinate and groom children. Prove me wrong.

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