Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[Milchshake]

Again, grats to new congressperson Kai Kahele, for flipping his district blue.

[Mormolyce]

No other Presidential candidate on the democratic side would’ve done any better than Biden. And that’s an indictment of the entire system right now, not to mention how insanely popular Trump actually is. The latter is more key than the former. Trump lost this battle, but it’s far from over. Just you watch. And it’s a shitshow.

Trump is literally the least popular President in modern history. In his entire Presidency he never once broke the 50% mark.

I don't believe no democrat could've done better, first of all that's fatalistic thinking. Second of all, not that long ago Obama took out 365 and then 332 EC votes, winning OH and FL both times. Against massive Republican resistance. And he was black for fuck's sake.

Both of the establishment candidates - 2016 and 2020 - severely underperformed in OH and FL. Like a 7% swing against them vs. Obama, both times. If Biden had been more popular in those states alone, the election would've been called on election night. Pollsters rated them as anyone's game. There's nobody to blame for that severe underperformance but Hillary and Biden.

I mean Jesus Christ, it's fucking Florida and Ohio, literally the two biggest swing states. If appealing to the middle is such a successful strategy then they're exactly the states that should've flipped. The establishment Dems need to get it through their thick skulls - that theory isn't working. Believing that shit again in 2024 will lead to disaster. They were saved by a fucking act of God this year, and still barely made it.

[kaid]

Trump is literally the least popular President in modern history. In his entire Presidency he never once broke the 50% mark.

I don't believe no democrat could've done better, first of all that's fatalistic thinking. Second of all, not that long ago Obama took out 365 and then 332 EC votes, winning OH and FL both times. Against massive Republican resistance. And he was black for fuck's sake.

Both of the establishment candidates - 2016 and 2020 - severely underperformed in OH and FL. Like a 7% swing against them vs. Obama, both times. If Biden had been more popular in those states alone, the election would've been called on election night. Pollsters rated them as anyone's game. There's nobody to blame for that severe underperformance but Hillary and Biden.

I mean Jesus Christ, it's fucking Florida and Ohio, literally the two biggest swing states. If appealing to the middle is such a successful strategy then they're exactly the states that should've flipped. The establishment Dems need to get it through their thick skulls - that theory isn't working. Believing that shit again in 2024 will lead to disaster. They were saved by a fucking act of God this year, and still barely made it.

Honestly I am pretty dubious about FL being a swing state any more. It has been going further and further red for decades now same with OH. The dems have been losing voters there at a similar rate we are gaining them in the south west populations are changing and sorting. It is still worth trying for now but I never factored FL or OH in likely paths for biden short of a massive wave year.

[Mormolyce]

Trump campaign sees election lawsuits fizzle

It's a totally irrelevant point, but those 54 late-arriving ballots absolutely should've been counted.

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Honestly I am pretty dubious about FL being a swing state any more. It has been going further and further red for decades now same with OH. The dems have been losing voters there at a similar rate we are gaining them in the south west populations are changing and sorting. It is still worth trying for now but I never factored FL or OH in likely paths for biden short of a massive wave year.

What's that based on, the last two elections? Poppycock. If anything it's going more blue - it went for Reagan and Nixon by double digits.

Hillary and Biden did not appeal to Florida. It was their only job.

[downnola]

What's that based on, the last two elections? Poppycock. If anything it's going more blue - it went for Reagan and Nixon by double digits.

Hillary and Biden did not appeal to Florida. It was their only job.

Sanders would have lost Florida as well. If neither Biden or Sanders can take Florida then I'd love to know who would.

[JohnBrown1917]

It's a totally irrelevant point, but those 54 late-arriving ballots absolutely should've been counted.

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What's that based on, the last two elections? Poppycock. If anything it's going more blue - it went for Reagan and Nixon by double digits.

Hillary and Biden did not appeal to Florida. It was their only job.

They would have to go even more right-wing to win the aging population of a state like that.

[kaid]

Sanders would have lost Florida as well. If neither Biden or Sanders can take Florida then I'd love to know who would.

Going into a state with a large cuban and latin american population and loudly declaring yourself to be a socialist does not seem to be a winning strategy. Hell a lot of that blew back on the various democrats running in FL as it was just stupidly easy to slather on the they are sodalists crap even stronger than before. FL was one of those nice to have states but it was barely above TX for likely to swing democrat this year. And with the increasing strength in the south west the dem party does not need to focus that much on FL because it is not pivotal to their pathway to win. It is basically there with georgia as very nice to have but not something necessary just frosting on the cake.

[wunksta]

Sanders would have lost Florida as well. If neither Biden or Sanders can take Florida then I'd love to know who would.

I think it goes back to not investing in infrastructure or helping out local areas with reaching out to people. Democrats waited until the last minute while Republicans have been hitting those areas hard for a long time.
https://www.vox.com/21551025/latino-...-florida-texas

[Mormolyce]

So, I still have people replying to me and on posts saying that more people voted than were registered in some states, and I am just laughing. Because those bullshit talking points were debunked the first day of counting when Trump lost states like Wisconsin. But people are still pushing these crackpot conspiracy theories because they lack the copium to realize that Trump lost.

These people have had a fundamental break with reality, they live in a conservative news bubble where coronavirus is made up, climate change isn't happening, liberals are the real racists, and the water is turning the frogs gay. Facts literally do not matter to them. They'd screech like Donald Sutherland in Body Snatchers if they ever saw a fact.

[wunksta]

Going into a state with a large cuban and latin american population and loudly declaring yourself to be a socialist does not seem to be a winning strategy.

That's the popular talking point but I think it's a lot more nuanced than that.

[Mormolyce]

Sanders would have lost Florida as well. If neither Biden or Sanders can take Florida then I'd love to know who would.

Please stop wasting everyone's time with figures from the Democratic primary.

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They would have to go even more right-wing to win the aging population of a state like that.

Right wing like "Iraq Hussein Osama", the muslim terrorist from Kenya, with his transgender wife and his socialist healthcare plan?

Seriously, how can you still believe this shit? The last four elections completely put the lie to it. Obama won it twice, centrist candidates lost it twice. Ergo this line of thinking is false.

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But it requires a disconnect from reality.

Check.

[Endus]

What's that based on, the last two elections? Poppycock. If anything it's going more blue - it went for Reagan and Nixon by double digits.

Hillary and Biden did not appeal to Florida. It was their only job.

Biden appears to have lost Florida pretty much entirely thanks to Miami-Dade, and pretty much entirely there because voters were so lazy and stupid that they fell for "Biden is a socialist" propaganda.

That's not about "appeal". That's about an electorate being colossally stupid and incompetent. And an opponent who's going to unapologetically use Mein Kampf as their playbook. Trying to blame Biden for the effect of Republican lies and an electorate too stupid to understand that they're being lied to is . . . not on point.

[Biglog]

Four Seasons Giuliani trying another lawsuit in PA today. They're 1-21 in legal cases around election fraud btw, and the 1 win wasn't much of a win. In that one they sued to have a state do something it was already doing so it was moot and closed.

The sad part for Giuliani is you'd think after 4 years of Trump his aides would understand how he works, but it still seems like people don't get it and take him at face value. This is the final exam time folks, we all should know the playbook by now. Trump knows the legal challenges are hopeless, which is why Giuliani was assigned to it. Because just like Fauci and a countless line of other former fired Trump aides, he will become the fall guy. Every single one of them were his closest cabinet members ended up backstabbed and turned into the scapegoat for one failure or another over the past 4 years. If Giuliani doesn't see that train coming this time he's blind.

[wunksta]

Biden appears to have lost Florida pretty much entirely thanks to Miami-Dade, and pretty much entirely there because voters were so lazy and stupid that they fell for "Biden is a socialist" propaganda.

That's not about "appeal". That's about an electorate being colossally stupid and incompetent. And an opponent who's going to unapologetically use Mein Kampf as their playbook. Trying to blame Biden for the effect of Republican lies and an electorate too stupid to understand that they're being lied to is . . . not on point.

But isn't it also on Biden and the Democrats for not countering that? Talking with people, putting out messaging and doing community outreach? From what I have seen, they didn't really address the concern voters had. The Republicans had very persuasive Spanish language conservative media channels that were making an impact, what did the Democrats have? The Democrats have to learn to combat this kind of Republican propaganda because it's not going away.

[Trifle]

But his performance showed no such thing, he scraped into office against an incredibly weak opponent. If it weren't for Trump's historic unpopularity, he would've been an also-ran and the Republicans would easily sail into a second term.

I'd just like to point out that as much as most of us here dislike him, he did actually get ~73 million votes, which is more than Obama did in 2008 and actually the second highest in history (after Biden this year)... so it feels a bit disingenuous to call him "weak" or "unpopular".

Objectively he was neither, even if we think he should have been.

[kaid]

But isn't it also on Biden and the Democrats for not countering that? Talking with people, putting out messaging and doing community outreach? From what I have seen, they didn't really address the concern voters had. The Republicans had very persuasive Spanish language conservative media channels that were making an impact, what did the Democrats have? The Democrats have to learn to combat this kind of Republican propaganda because it's not going away.

Yes but there is a matter of how much time/money you have and where you spend them. Biden spent it rebuilding the blue wall and georgia and the south west. That was basically his pathway to victory and he won it. FL would have been good to have but given trump has been living there for years it was always going to be one of those nice to have but don't count on it state and don't break the bank trying to chase it.

[wunksta]

Yes but there is a matter of how much time/money you have and where you spend them. Biden spent it rebuilding the blue wall and georgia and the south west. That was basically his pathway to victory and he won it. FL would have been good to have but given trump has been living there for years it was always going to be one of those nice to have but don't count on it state and don't break the bank trying to chase it.

That's fair, Biden definitely learned from Clinton's mistakes there.

[Endus]

But isn't it also on Biden and the Democrats for not countering that?

Nope.

Anyone gullible enough to take in disinformation like that is also heavily resistant to the facts that debunk that disinformation. They're like the anti-vaxxers who don't care about the 30,000 papers demonstrating the efficacy of vaccines; they've got that one (debunked) paper that questions them, and that's all they care about.

It takes vastly more effort to counter these efforts than to implement them. This is exactly what Hitler was talking about with regards to the "big lie", and it's why Trump supporters are so completely out to lunch these days.

The blame lies squarely on the shoulders of those who fall for this crap. Stop making excuses for them. And expecting the victims of the disinformation campaign to "counter" it is . . . missing the fucking point.

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I'd just like to point out that as much as most of us here dislike him, he did actually get ~73 million votes, which is more than Obama did in 2008 and actually the second highest in history (after Biden this year)... so it feels a bit disingenuous to call him "weak" or "unpopular".

Objectively he was neither, even if we think he should have been.

Right.

Nobody should see Trump as an "incredibly weak opponent". 73 million votes is crazy strong. The problem is that he's an incredibly weak candidate, in the sense that he stands for effectively nothing other than venal abuses and petty bullying. And that's enough for a near-majority of American voters, all by itself. He confirms enough of their prejudices that they don't give a shit about anything else.

Trump may be a terrible, ridiculous human being. But he's the exactly right kind of terrible and ridiculous to appeal to a similarly terrible and ridiculous electorate. And until you fix that problem, you're going to keep getting Trumps. Or worse, someone as amoral as Trump, but actually intelligent, and able to properly exploit the situation.

[wunksta]

Nope.

Anyone gullible enough to take in disinformation like that is also heavily resistant to the facts that debunk that disinformation. They're like the anti-vaxxers who don't care about the 30,000 papers demonstrating the efficacy of vaccines; they've got that one (debunked) paper that questions them, and that's all they care about.

It takes vastly more effort to counter these efforts than to implement them. This is exactly what Hitler was talking about with regards to the "big lie", and it's why Trump supporters are so completely out to lunch these days.

The blame lies squarely on the shoulders of those who fall for this crap. Stop making excuses for them. And expecting the victims of the disinformation campaign to "counter" it is . . . missing the fucking point.

And this will keep happening. Complaining that some political parties lie and use fake propaganda to slander their opponents and that some people are gullible to believe it doesn't stop it. Ultimately, it's public perception and as unfair as it may be, you can't allow your opponent to control the narrative.

[kaelleria]

Georgia's initial results stand...

Welcome to Joergia!

https://twitter.com/charlesbethea/st...351126016?s=21

New: Georgia's very expensive "risk-limiting audit" has concluded that the ORIGINAL RESULTS STAND & will be certified: "Though the RLA might show slight changes in totals, those changes are not the certified results." #gapol https://t.co/MV4x1vILmD