Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[PhaelixWW]

Anyone feeling like getting out in front of the pack with their guesses for 2024 primary winners?

For myself, I have no clue, except that I'd be surprised if Biden runs again, unless he has the best, most amazingly productive next four years.

[Zaktar]

Anyone feeling like getting out in front of the pack with their guesses for 2024 primary winners?

For myself, I have no clue, except that I'd be surprised if Biden runs again, unless he has the best, most amazingly productive next four years.

I'm arrogant and ignorant enough to guess, I'd lean toward Harris, unless she screws something up in the next four years. Biden was already a tough sell, so his running again seems unlikely, agreed. That said, he seems poised to have an amazingly productive next four years, and Trump just set the bar incredibly low. It won't be hard for him to look like a rock-star. If that ends up being true, then Harris could represent a way to extend a successful Biden administration, assuming she can keep her profile up in a positive way. Which, it seems to me, is going to be something Biden himself is going to work toward; he had to be thinking about the next election when he picked her as his running mate. That's partly why I'd bet on her, because he did and he is an extremely skilled, knowledgeable, and experienced politician.

Lots of ifs, lots of things can go wrong, lots of things can change. Always in motion is the future.

If I check with the only consistently accurate predictive model I'm aware of: https://pollyvote.com/en/components/...e-white-house/, we need a lot more information. Granted that model is more about which party will win, not which candidate, but unless the Republican party fractures or nominates another Trumpian figure, they're likely to be in the hunt. I don't think Trump or someone like him could win in 4 years, though maybe 8 =/ Political amnesia has a rapid onset.

[gondrin]

Trump-ally media outlet OAN quietly deleted articles about Dominion despite publicly doubling down on election conspiracy theories



Big chicken. OAN probably turned yellow when their insurance carrier told them that their E&O insurance does not cover outright lies.

They can scrub it all they want. They can still get sued. And with what OANN put out there, the book needs to be thrown at them for it.

[Felya]

Too soon to start the 2024 election thread? I mean, it won't be long before the campaigning starts up.

Trump is an outlier... No other president has campaigned for the duration of their entire presidency and there is no indication Biden will change that.

[Kathranis]

I hope that Dominion is still pursuing litigation, these hollow "apologies" or attempts at changing the past aside.

Seems like free money to me.

[Breccia]

They can scrub it all they want. They can still get sued.

I think it's time we all reviewed the rules about "defamation" as a legal term. Simply put, I think @gondrin is correct, especially since OANN didn't make a big deal about the retraction after making a big deal about the original story.

[Thekri]

Anyone feeling like getting out in front of the pack with their guesses for 2024 primary winners?

For myself, I have no clue, except that I'd be surprised if Biden runs again, unless he has the best, most amazingly productive next four years.

I disagree, I think it is almost certain that Biden will run again, assuming he is in good health (Which he probably will be). Presidents almost always run for reelection, and Biden has wanted to be President for about 40 years now. I doubt he is going to want to give it up after 4.

[Felya]

I disagree, I think it is almost certain that Biden will run again, assuming he is in good health (Which he probably will be). Presidents almost always run for reelection, and Biden has wanted to be President for about 40 years now. I doubt he is going to want to give it up after 4.

I get the impression from his speeches, that this presidency was a reaction, not one of vision or long term goals. I think Biden, if not directly, has hinted that this might be a one term gig.

[PhaelixWW]

Welp...

CNN: Why Joe Biden is already thinking about a 2nd term

Even before Joe Biden became the country's 46th president on Wednesday, his orbit was sending out signals that he wouldn't be a one-term wonder.

"He is planning to run again," Delaware Sen. Chris Coons told Politico over the weekend. "He knows that we are at the middle of an absolute turning point, a pivot point in American history. And he's up for the challenge."

Which is interesting!

After all, Coons is one of Biden's closest allies and advisers. Which means it's pretty unlikely that he just sort of spouted off -- days before Biden became president -- about the 46th president's plans to run again in 2024.

This was, without question, a concerted effort -- and strategy -- to get the word out that Biden has no plans to limit himself to a single term. And it's a very smart strategy.

Why? Because the second that Biden -- or one of his top surrogates -- suggests that Biden, who, at 78, is by far the oldest person ever sworn in for a first presidential term, may not run again, he immediately becomes a lame duck. The clock starts ticking on the end of his term and Republicans begin the process of stalling as much as possible -- knowing that Biden is going to be gone in less than four years.

(There's a reason that the last president to make a one-term limit pledge was Rutherford B. Hayes way back in the 1870s.)

It's also suggests there's been a significant change from where Biden reportedly was on seeking second term -- at age 82 -- as recently as December 2019. As Politico's Ryan Lizza reported at the time:

"Former Vice President Joe Biden's top advisers and prominent Democrats outside the Biden campaign have recently revived a long-running debate whether Biden should publicly pledge to serve only one term, with Biden himself signaling to aides that he would serve only a single term.

"While the option of making a public pledge remains available, Biden has for now settled on an alternative strategy: quietly indicating that he will almost certainly not run for a second term while declining to make a promise that he and his advisers fear could turn him into a lame duck and sap him of his political capital."

And Biden spoke openly about his candidacy (and presidency) as a sort of generational bridge for the party and the country.

"Look, I view myself as a bridge, not as anything else," Biden said in March 2020. "There's an entire generation of leaders you saw stand behind me. They are the future of this country."

But by August, with Donald Trump ramping up attacks on the former vice president's age and ability to do the job of president, Biden was less vague about his future plans, Asked whether he could see himself running again in four years, he responded: "Absolutely."

The truth is that no one -- Biden included -- knows what he and the country will look like in four years' time. Did anyone think that 18 months ago that we would be in the grips of a global pandemic that has already killed more than 400,000 Americans? Exactly.

But words have impact. And Coons' pledge that Biden not only could run again but it is "planning" to do so is very clearly meant to send a signal to every Democratic and Republican in Washington that this guy isn't going anywhere -- so it's time to get to work with him on the problems facing the country.

[Rasulis]

Trump is an outlier... No other president has campaigned for the duration of their entire presidency and there is no indication Biden will change that.

No other presidents registered for re-election on their first day of taking office.

[gondrin]

Welp...

CNN: Why Joe Biden is already thinking about a 2nd term

Honestly, that is smart. If you do plan on being an one term president, don't say anything until near the primaries at the earliest.

[Breccia]

Honestly, that is smart.

Agreed. The "lame duck" part in particular.

[draynay]

If people are starting to talk 2024 then yes, kill the thread.

[Zardoz541]

I get the impression from his speeches, that this presidency was a reaction, not one of vision or long term goals. I think Biden, if not directly, has hinted that this might be a one term gig.

As others have pointed out (beat me to it...) this CNN article brings new substance to the conversation. Granted, there has been a lot of talk about this amongst the Dem party and those in his orbit, but the tone and substance of those discussions seem to have shifted.

I think Joe must run (and win) in 2024, at which point he could then at some stage resign, having secured the White House for another four years. All of this is of course predicated upon an impressive current term, for which I am cautiously optimistic.

[gondrin]

People were talking about 2024 before Biden ever even won. That's just US politics. They elections never stop. The grabbing for cash never stops. It just goes on, and on, and on, and....

As for Biden 2024, that's years away. Nobody knows how he'll be at the end of this term. He's old AF as it is.

Well, if we want to go old, Betty White is 99 years old. Might as well as have a centenarian as the next president.

[Edge-]

https://twitter.com/TPMLiveWire/stat...27423006830601

Kevin McCarthy says he didn't vote to overturn the election. He did vote to overturn the election, but says it doesn't count because his vote wouldn't have overturned it.

Just a reminder that Republicans and lying go together like bees and pollen.

[masterhorus8]

https://twitter.com/TPMLiveWire/stat...27423006830601

Kevin McCarthy says he didn't vote to overturn the election. He did vote to overturn the election, but says it doesn't count because his vote wouldn't have overturned it.

Just a reminder that Republicans and lying go together like bees and pollen.

Sounds like people need to upload a clip of him voting to overturn the results on their phone and play it to him every time they walk by.

[Edge-]

Sounds like people need to upload a clip of him voting to overturn the results on their phone and play it to him every time they walk by.

That's what's nuts to me. He doesn't deny voting to overturn the election...just that his vote would have overturned the election. This is some doublespeak more plus good, shit.

[Egomaniac]

That's what's nuts to me. He doesn't deny voting to overturn the election...just that his vote would have overturned the election. This is some doublespeak more plus good, shit.

And yet there are people hearing that and saying "Well, yeah....totally"

Kinda reminds me of the people that voted "yes" on Brexit...but say they didn't actually want Brexit...they just wanted to lodge a protest vote or whatever.

[Felya]

Amanda Gorman 2036

https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/s...72735598145536