SL Release Date Quasi-Leaked? Nov 30, 2020

[Tiberria]

Impossible. Pre-patches are traditionally put on the ptr one month before release, this means 9.0 pre-patch will go live in september and Shadowlands will be released one month later, somewhere in october.

This is incorrect.

BFA - Pre-patch to PTR June 18, Expansion release August 14 - 8 weeks of PTR
Legion - Pre-patch to PTR June 18, Expansion release August 30 - 10.5 weeks of PTR
WoD - Pre-Patch to PTR September 15, Expansion release November 13 - 8 weeks of PTR

It isn't a month of pre-patch PTR - it's consistently around 2 months, and then a month of pre-patch before the expansion release. October is all but out of the question, especially since they haven't announced a release date, and announced a date less than 3 months out for each of the previous 2 expacs. We are looking at around mid-November.

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PRE PATCH PTR has ALWAYS lasted around a month. I cant think of a single time that it didnt. The prepatch itself always lasts around a month as well (correct me if im wrong and you have factual proof).

Pre-patch PTR has been 8+ weeks for each of the last 3 expansions. You literally have to go 4 expansions and 8 years in the past to find the last time the pre-patch PTR lasted less than 8 weeks (5 weeks in MoP).

[Varodoc]

This is incorrect.

BFA - Pre-patch to PTR June 18, Expansion release August 14 - 8 weeks of PTR
Legion - Pre-patch to PTR June 18, Expansion release August 30 - 10.5 weeks of PTR
WoD - Pre-Patch to PTR September 15, Expansion release November 13 - 8 weeks of PTR

It isn't a month of pre-patch PTR - it's consistently around 2 months, and then a month of pre-patch before the expansion release. October is all but out of the question, especially since they haven't announced a release date, and announced a date less than 3 months out for each of the previous 2 expacs. We are looking at around mid-November.

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Pre-patch PTR has been 8+ weeks for each of the last 3 expansions. You literally have to go 4 expansions and 8 years in the past to find the last time the pre-patch PTR lasted less than 8 weeks (5 weeks in MoP).

What are you talking about? Both the pre-patch of BfA and Legion were released mid july. The pre-patch of WoD was also released mid-october, so again only one month of PTR.

[Skyforge1]

This is incorrect.

BFA - Pre-patch to PTR June 18, Expansion release August 14 - 8 weeks of PTR
Legion - Pre-patch to PTR June 18, Expansion release August 30 - 10.5 weeks of PTR
WoD - Pre-Patch to PTR September 15, Expansion release November 13 - 8 weeks of PTR

It isn't a month of pre-patch PTR - it's consistently around 2 months, and then a month of pre-patch before the expansion release. October is all but out of the question, especially since they haven't announced a release date, and announced a date less than 3 months out for each of the previous 2 expacs. We are looking at around mid-November.

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Pre-patch PTR has been 8+ weeks for each of the last 3 expansions. You literally have to go 4 expansions and 8 years in the past to find the last time the pre-patch PTR lasted less than 8 weeks (5 weeks in MoP).

The guy you are correcting is saying prepatch ptr is live for one month before Prepatch comes out, not the expansion

[FarmerJim]

[QUOTE=dcc626;52568089]should know in 2 weeks either way at gamescom.

To be honest, I'm fully expecting a release date announcement and then something along the lines of "Prepatch goes live NEXT WEEK" from them at Gamescom.

[Deferionus]

Per beta screenshot:

Original Tweet: https://twitter.com/riggnaros/status...63480383586308

109 days from today is Nov 30, which would put pre-patch (9.0.1) on Sept 22,2020.

Thoughts?

I called a November 3rd or 10th release several months ago based upon some historical data on timing from start of beta to the expansion release. Historical data from the release of the pre patch PTR still supports those two dates. Additionally, some Blizzard employees may be out of the office for the Thanksgiving holiday, so they will want to release ahead of Thanksgiving to have more man power in the office to address bugs and other issues that arise with the expansion launch, and to smooth the game over for the additional load on the servers when more people are off work on those holiday dates.

This is just another piece of data to support me

[Dracullus]

snip

Pre-patch releases (at least) 4 weeks before launch, so he's right, Pre-patch PTR last only 4 weeks at least since WoD.

Personally I think this time PTR will be longer (my guess at least 6 weeks), but for different reasons:

1) They want rotation for classes to work on level 50, without SL systems.
2) PTR started only month into Beta
3) Level squish and revamped leveling requires more testing.
4) SL testing cycle is already different that BfA/Legion, for sure it feels more organized. For example they released all classes (their first iteration of course) first day on Alpha, Toghast testing started week 2, not after cap, etc.

[Lucetia]

Where was it ever said that Blizzard wanted you to achieve max cloak resistance?

If they didn't want you to achieve max they wouldn't have capped it and just kept it going. Max cloak resistance is the "nerf" of the final patch towards a raid tier that always happen. Every expansion they always launch a mini patch or put something in that passively nerfs a raid so guilds can push past any final bosses that they are struggling on before expansion hits. This is due to certain rewards going away.

PRE PATCH PTR has ALWAYS lasted around a month. I cant think of a single time that it didnt. The prepatch itself always lasts around a month as well (correct me if im wrong and you have factual proof).

Except PTR always lasts more than a month, instead of asking others for factual proof you could show some backing up your claim. Do realize though sometimes they last for awhile, sometimes they don't. This PTR though has a lot of things that need to be tested, mainly leveling and the new squishes so it is going to take time to iron that out. Not to mention all of the new character customization's coming.

The Prepatch usually drops on live the FOLLOWING week after a pre patch has been on ptr for a month. Therefore, the pre patch is likely to drop on September 15th.

According to your logic, the PTR launched this week. 4 weeks + 1 week would put it on September 8th not the 15th. Either way I don't see it happening because there would be no point in maxing out a cloak and then taking it away the following week, especially when this is the raid nerfing mechanic. Don't look at it as "max cloak" look at it for it's intended function of "raid nerfing passively".

This would give Shadowlands a release date of October 20, if you use the same rule that it will release 5 weeks after the release of the pre patch.

Pre-Patches last around a month, no one disagrees with that.

We will know for sure if we get the 2 week warning for the end of the pvp and mythic + season by September 2nd.

Typically we get Pre-Patch dates for expansion before this as we start to get launcher updates and notifications from Blizzard. The reason being is there is a lot of things that change in the Pre-Patch and things that go away so they give us a hard date rather than a 2 week window. I still would not be surprised to see it launch beginning of October and then expansion in November.

Do note though that before the pre-patch launches we have a hard date for the expansion, which currently we don't.

[FluFF]

According to your logic, the PTR launched this week. 4 weeks + 1 week would put it on September 8th not the 15th.

PTR dropped like 2 nights ago on the 11th so 4 weeks + 1 week is September 15 and not September 8 so he was right ?

But yeah that's assuming PTR is 4 weeks, it will probably be more like 5-6 this time but still Nov 30 seems like a really far stretch as release date, we are already raid testing for like the 3th week in a row etc and all in all the leveling revamp was already active on Alpha where people already did 1-60 so I doubt the ''revamped'' leveling needs like 6+ weeks of testing on PTR.

[Malefic]

Per beta screenshot:

Original Tweet: https://twitter.com/riggnaros/status...63480383586308

109 days from today is Nov 30, which would put pre-patch (9.0.1) on Sept 22,2020.

Thoughts?

Likely just an arbitrary date this has been put at. Expansions historically launch on Tuesdays, just as it hits Wednesday in EU, November 30th is a Monday.

It will never be this late. 4 weeks PTR, then 4 weeks pre patch, then launch. October launch imo.

This game isn't being released in October. If it was you'd know about it already. November 24th is the earliest they release Shadowlands at this point.

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[QUOTE=FarmerJim;52568245]

should know in 2 weeks either way at gamescom.

To be honest, I'm fully expecting a release date announcement and then something along the lines of "Prepatch goes live NEXT WEEK" from them at Gamescom.

Oh my sweet child. This isn't happening.

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28 october or 4 november shadowlands will most likely release. 30 November would be to late, raiding will start 1 week before Christmas then, they will have alot of people on holiday, and they will need to hotfix alot.

Im gonna guess it’s 28 oct. with the prepatch hitting 23 september

We're not raiding Castle Nathria this year. Raid is being released early January.

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In their investor call recently they said beginning of Q4, so yes, it's going to be October for sure.

No it didn't. It said they would definitely release in Q4. Furthermore, their most recent discussion mentioned

"You have our commitment we will be releasing Shadowlands this fall, even if we end up shipping it from our homes" - this isn't something you say when you're comfortably releasing within that time frame. They're basically saying "We're committed to this window, even if there is challenges." That window is September 22nd-December 21st. Meaning they're most likely pushing towards the end of that window.

[Lucetia]

PTR dropped like 2 nights ago on the 11th so 4 weeks + 1 week is September 15 and not September 8 so he was right ?

If you exclude this week then yes, others know. August 11, 18, 25 and September 1st are the four weeks placing the 5th week that it would launch (as they said) on the 8th.

But yeah that's assuming PTR is 4 weeks, it will probably be more like 5-6 this time but still Nov 30 seems like a really far stretch as release date, we are already raid testing for like the 3th week in a row etc and all in all the leveling revamp was already active on Alpha where people already did 1-60 so I doubt the ''revamped'' leveling needs like 6+ weeks of testing on PTR.

Somewhat true, but on the PTR we had a lot of things still active like Legion legendaries and heirlooms. Those no longer exist and for a lot of the time on Alpha Chromie wasn't even active. So they still need to test speeds with those things disabled and make sure Chromie time works. I don't remember when Chromie Time was specifically added, but I know it wasn't active for a lot of alpha.

[dcc626]

[QUOTE=Malefic;52568411]Likely just an arbitrary date this has been put at. Expansions historically launch on Tuesdays, just as it hits Wednesday in EU, November 30th is a Monday.




This game isn't being released in October. If it was you'd know about it already. November 24th is the earliest they release Shadowlands at this point.

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Oh my sweet child. This isn't happening.

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We're not raiding Castle Nathria this year. Raid is being released early January.

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No it didn't. It said they would definitely release in Q4. Furthermore, their most recent discussion mentioned

"You have our commitment we will be releasing Shadowlands this fall, even if we end up shipping it from our homes" - this isn't something you say when you're comfortably releasing within that time frame. They're basically saying "We're committed to this window, even if there is challenges." That window is September 22nd-December 21st. Meaning they're most likely pushing towards the end of that window.

cool, ill come back in 2 weeks then. gamescom lists blizzards as being someone who is "attending". what else might they be talking about then?

[Malefic]

[QUOTE=dcc626;52568561]

Likely just an arbitrary date this has been put at. Expansions historically launch on Tuesdays, just as it hits Wednesday in EU, November 30th is a Monday.




This game isn't being released in October. If it was you'd know about it already. November 24th is the earliest they release Shadowlands at this point.

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cool, ill come back in 2 weeks then. gamescom lists blizzards as being someone who is "attending". what else might they be talking about then?

I'll make sure to quote you when we get a release date that isn't October . I never disputed whether a release date would be given at Gamescom, I disputed this idea people have that the game is randomly going to be dropped in 6-10 weeks and would have the shortest release date announcement to release date in THE GAMES ENTIRE HISTORY.

This is the same community that were adamant Blizzard were going to open Blizzcon with "8.3 will drop next week" when I told them we weren't raiding Ny'alotha in 2019 too.

[Gaidax]

People are reading too much into things.

[bowchikabow]

There is another thing that could change the release roadmap: The sheer volume of changes that are coming.

nearly 2/3 the game is being re-written in some form. The ilvl squish, the level squish, the new leveling system, the new starting area, the unpruning, the new zone, new scaling (for zones AND rewards/items etc), the scourge 1.1 or 2.0 (depends on who you ask)... There is a lot of changes, more than any change this game has seen (and that includes Cataclysm imo). If they think that merely 4wks of PTR is gonna be enough to launch Pre-patch, and that 8wks of Pre-patch will be enough.. then they must have REALLY ambitious opinions of what they accomplished.

This doesn't even taken into consideration the new systems that won't be launching until actual SL. Anything before Sept 15th (for pre-expack) and Nov 10th (for SL launch) is almost to the point of naivety.

[glowpipe]

Pre-patch ptr doesn't need that much attention since most of it has already been tested in alpha and beta. This prepatch wiill not tke longer than a 5-6 weeks tops before it goes live. So live somewhere mid september, and prepatches are never shorter than 4 weeks and never longer than 6 weeks. So October is a surefire bet. Unless something crazy happens. Like a pandemic or some shit

[Ringthane]

It will never be this late. 4 weeks PTR, then 4 weeks pre patch, then launch. October launch imo.

Yeah, it will never be this late.

Oh, by the way: WotLK, Cata, and WoD say hello.

[Ranei]

It will never be this late. 4 weeks PTR, then 4 weeks pre patch, then launch. October launch imo.

Have you seen the state of the beta, october launch lmao. We'll be lucky to get it this year.

[schwarzkopf]

People are reading too much into things.

Indeed - mid to late November has always been the go, still is

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Have you seen the state of the beta,

Yes - it is quite progressed, not much core stuff to do.

We'll be lucky to get it this year.

Well - we are getting it this year, that's already set in stone.

[Gaidax]

Indeed - mid to late November has always been the go, still is

Yeah, I'm Team November too. I'd be shocked if the manage it in October seeing the state of Beta - there are still plenty of bugs all around.

Like you can't even advance Maldraxxus main campaign now at some point and Kyrian Covenant campaign is broken too.

[Onikaroshi]

Yeah, I'm Team November too. I'd be shocked if the manage it in October seeing the state of Beta - there are still plenty of bugs all around.

Like you can't even advance Maldraxxus main campaign now at some point and Kyrian Covenant campaign is broken too.

My alts join covenants and don't get abilities lol, just started after this last patch.