Another India-China border incident

[Corvus]

Details are limited so far, but there appears to have been another incident along the contested China-India border, following on from the one early in the year that saw 20 Indian and an unknown number of Chinese soldiers killed.

The first indications came from an Indian Army press release saying that Chinese troops had carried out provocative military movements to chance the status quo (ie a land grab like previously) and that Indian troops pre-empted PLA activity on the Southern Bank of Pangong Tso Lake. Sounds like the Indians knew that the Chinese were coming and did something about it.

China later responded saying that Indian troops had crossed the LAC and they need to withdraw their troops.

There doesn't appear to have been any deaths this time but given rising tensions in the region and both sides reinforcing the border, with China recently building SAM sites nearby and having moved up J-20 jets just days before the incident, future clashes can't really be ruled out.

[Easo]

Not this again... -.-

I do wonder what were the casualties on Chinese side on the first one. While I do not have high opinion of Indian army, I find it very unlikely that Chinese managed to kill 20 people and injure 70 others in a hand to hand combat without suffering any losses themselves.

[Thekri]

Concerning, but for the moment I think this is still politically beneficial for both nations, so it is likely to continue for a bit. It plays well with their domestic audiences, giving each government legitimacy by pushing against their strongest neighbor.

There is always the risk things could rapidly spiral out of control, because this is a dangerous game to be playing. However, I expect to see deescalation after each incident to keep it generally under control, while we see a serious of provoked incidents and deescalations over the next six months or so.

[Rasulis]

Not this again... -.-

I do wonder what were the casualties on Chinese side on the first one. While I do not have high opinion of Indian army, I find it very unlikely that Chinese managed to kill 20 people and injure 70 others in a hand to hand combat without suffering any losses themselves.

From what I understand, most of the casualties came from troops falling into the nearby stream and ended up freezing to death on the way back to their respective bases before they can be rescued. No official number from the Chinese. But intel said around 35. Who knew hiking while soaking wet in the Himalaya in sub-zero temperature can be deadly.

[kaid]

Concerning, but for the moment I think this is still politically beneficial for both nations, so it is likely to continue for a bit. It plays well with their domestic audiences, giving each government legitimacy by pushing against their strongest neighbor.

There is always the risk things could rapidly spiral out of control, because this is a dangerous game to be playing. However, I expect to see deescalation after each incident to keep it generally under control, while we see a serious of provoked incidents and deescalations over the next six months or so.

Both nations are also jockeying for control of the water supply of their countries so do not underestimate how hard to the mat either nation is willing to go with this.

[Rasulis]

Concerning, but for the moment I think this is still politically beneficial for both nations, so it is likely to continue for a bit. It plays well with their domestic audiences, giving each government legitimacy by pushing against their strongest neighbor.

There is always the risk things could rapidly spiral out of control, because this is a dangerous game to be playing. However, I expect to see deescalation after each incident to keep it generally under control, while we see a serious of provoked incidents and deescalations over the next six months or so.

You know the military better than I do. How do you conduct a war at 5,500 m above the sea level, where the temperature in the summer ranges between -1C to +7C, oxygen level of 10.5%, and regular wind gust of 100 kph. Can combat helicopters even operate at such high altitude? How about tanks and other combat vehicles?

[Thekri]

You know the military better than I do. How do you conduct a war at 5,500 m above the sea level, where the temperature in the summer ranges between -1C to +7C, oxygen level of 10.5%, and regular wind gust of 100 kph. Can combat helicopters even operate at such high altitude? How about tanks and other combat vehicles?

Infantry, Artillery, Jets.

It can be done, people can fight wars anywhere. The more relevant issue is that what does international commerce look like if India and China actually go to war. If somebody starts some shit on the naval side of things, this gets catastrophic for the world economy real fast. It is one of the reasons why open warfare would be catastrophically bad, and why both governments will go to extreme lengths to avoid it.

[Corvus]

Combat at that altitude is tough. India has an advantage here as they have a lot of experience at high altitude fighting due to their constant skirmishes in Kashmir with the Pakistanis. Even with that, the conditions are a killer. I saw it reported that in the last serious lash with Pakistan, only 1/3rd of the casualties were from combat. The other 2/3rds were from conditions they were fighting in.

I have been keeping up with what has been gone on (or at least is speculated) over on a geopolitics site. The previous clash happened north of the lake, this one took place south of it. With winter setting in, the Indians feared that if the Chinese grabbed any more important protrusions/hill tops that they wouldn't be able to dislodge them. So when they saw the Chinese moving troops into position in readiness for a new land grab, they pre-empted it, took the high ground and even captured 25-30 Chinese soldiers from a minor outpost. From their new position they could look down over Chinese supply routes and bases, rather than the other way around. The Indians have now dug in with anti-tank and artillery support so the only way the Chinese have to dislodge them is to start shooting, which would be a major escalation.

Both sides have also move on tanks within firing distance at the new site of dispute as well.

It is interesting to note that one of the Indian units involved in this is a special force unit made up of Tibetan exiles and there is apparently footage of them with the Tibetan flag celebrating their victory.

[Deja Thoris]

Both nations are also jockeying for control of the water supply of their countries so do not underestimate how hard to the mat either nation is willing to go with this.

Except not really. The biggest river in China has its source a thousand km away from India.

[ohtlmtlm]

Except not really. The biggest river in China has its source a thousand km away from India.

could you imagine China having plans in the future to want the ability to develop more of their western territories and have a fresh water source for agriculture?

[kaid]

A lot of the fresh water from india and china comes from the himilayas so both sides are pretty heavily contesting the region as letting one or the other gain control just makes it that much easier for them to project force in the area that is pretty problematic to get to due to terrain.

[Deja Thoris]

could you imagine China having plans in the future to want the ability to develop more of their western territories and have a fresh water source for agriculture?

You should check a map.

[MoeSzyslak]

You should check a map.

China wants the control of the fresh water from India. Their own is save within Tibet, sorry China...

[YUPPIE]

what happens if China nukes or bombards India into paste? We know India is absolutely no match for China, but how would the world react or stand against a dystopian empire with WMDs? They already recently murdered a lot of Indian soldiers and no one really got involved.

[Thekri]

what happens if China nukes or bombards India into paste? We know India is absolutely no match for China, but how would the world react or stand against a dystopian empire with WMDs? They already recently murdered a lot of Indian soldiers and no one really got involved.

They won't, India can hold its own, and they didn't murder Indian Soldiers.

Why would anyone need to get involved to help India? They are big boys, they can handle themselves. They are trending towards Dystopian Empire themselves, and I am not a big fan of supporting a Hindu Theocracy any more then I am a fan of supporting various Islamic Theocracies.

Nobody is going to get nuked, please take your sensationalism and devote that energy towards actually educating yourself about a few of the topics you post about.

[Rasulis]

Vikas Battalion: Mysterious force which surprised China by capturing strategic height at Pangong Tso

The social media is abuzz about the covert Special Frontier Force (SFF) which outsmarted the PLA and managed to take control of strategic height on the southern bank of Pangong Tso in eastern Ladakh.

There are reports that the SFF unit, also known as Vikas Battalion, played a major role in occupying the key height, thereby thwarting attempts by China to change the status quo at the Line of Actual Control (LAC).

India’s leading strategic thinker Brahma Chellaney termed India’s success in taking control of the Chushul height a pre-emptive move in territory it perceives as its own so as to gain a tactical advantage and forestall PLA from seizing the unoccupied heights.

Considered as one of the most 'mysterious' armed units, the SFF is not part of the Indian Army and reports directly to the Prime Minister, through the Directorate General of Security in the Cabinet Secretariat.

In ‘The CIA's Secret War in Tibet’, Kenneth Conboy and James Morrison write that the dreaded Khampa warriors received training on the island of Saipan and at Camp Hale in the Colorado Rockies.

Before the Americans, the British Indian Army had recruited Tibetans as spies, intelligence agents, and covert militia as part of its effort to counter Russia in ‘The Great Game’ – a 19th century political and diplomatic confrontation between the two powers on exercising control on Central and South Asia.

Naturally adapted to the extreme weather and geographical conditions of the Himalayas, the Tibetan guerrillas were tasked with conducting special operations beyond enemy lines apart from gathering intelligence.

The SFF has participated in several operations - both covert and overt - such as Operation Eagle (securing Chittagong hills during the Bangladesh War of 1971), Operation Bluestar, Operation Meghdoot (establishing India’s control over the Siachen Glacier in 1984) and Operation Vijay (Kargil war in 1999).

[ohtlmtlm]

what happens if China nukes or bombards India into paste? We know India is absolutely no match for China, but how would the world react or stand against a dystopian empire with WMDs? They already recently murdered a lot of Indian soldiers and no one really got involved.

India also has nukes of their own. it wouldn't happen anyway. but jesus man, they are fighting with sticks and rocks because weapons are prohibited on the border line via a treaty and you out here talking about nuclear war. wtf.

[Logwyn]

China wants the control of the fresh water from India. Their own is save within Tibet, sorry China...

To do this China would need to cross the Himalayan Mountains and take parts of India proper. I do not recall a river that flow from India into China.

[Rasulis]

To do this China would need to cross the Himalayan Mountains and take parts of India proper. I do not recall a river that flow from India into China.

Yep. It is actually pretty far from Central China. You have Qinghai and the Tibetan Plateau in-between. In a real territorial war China is for now at a disadvantage. The China-India border is far away from their center of power. Qinghai and Tibetan Plateau stretched over a distance of 1,000 miles from Sichuan and Gansu. They only have four air force bases within striking range in Tibet. Small and highly exposed due to the steep terrains. While India has many more better equipped bases with massive concrete bunkers in Punjab. Also China need to keep most of their airplanes in the eastern theater against the US, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, etc.

China and India are actually fighting over no-mans land which was shown as blank on pre-1900 maps. They are fighting over a sliver of land in a high-altitude cold desert far away from the national heartlands, inhabited by populations very different from the respective dominant majorities on either side. But since in their perception it is theirs, both sides are now bound to defend their maps, as they were in the past.

Logistics will be a nightmare. A US Blackhawk helicopter can land in the region, but it will have to fly mostly empty. Tanks will be limited to light tanks only. Which are highly vulnerable to anti-tank weapons. It it comes down to pitch battle, it will be a battle fought mostly with infantry and artillery units. The terrain and the weather will likely inflict more tolls than the actual combat.

[Easo]

Yep. It is actually pretty far from Central China. You have Qinghai and the Tibetan Plateau in-between. In a real territorial war China is for now at a disadvantage. The China-India border is far away from their center of power. Qinghai and Tibetan Plateau stretched over a distance of 1,000 miles from Sichuan and Gansu. They only have four air force bases within striking range in Tibet. Small and highly exposed due to the steep terrains. While India has many more better equipped bases with massive concrete bunkers in Punjab. Also China need to keep most of their airplanes in the eastern theater against the US, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, etc.

China and India are actually fighting over no-mans land which was shown as blank on pre-1900 maps. They are fighting over a sliver of land in a high-altitude cold desert far away from the national heartlands, inhabited by populations very different from the respective dominant majorities on either side. But since in their perception it is theirs, both sides are now bound to defend their maps, as they were in the past.

Logistics will be a nightmare. A US Blackhawk helicopter can land in the region, but it will have to fly mostly empty. Tanks will be limited to light tanks only. Which are highly vulnerable to anti-tank weapons. It it comes down to pitch battle, it will be a battle fought mostly with infantry and artillery units. The terrain and the weather will likely inflict more tolls than the actual combat.

Ehh, I would argue that China is the one at advantage in said theoretical war, question is how big is that advantage. As to why, well:

China - uniform equipment, standartised development and purchase programs going on for years with little breaks. Precise foreign policy, everything is planned with a reason. Definitely overall more modern equipment in all branches than what India has. And... definitely are overstating capabilities of said equipment, gotta add that, yet it should be "good enough" regardless.

India - the Biggest military zoo in the world, has to be an absolute nightmare for logistics. They have bought everything shiny like candies - tanks, fighter planes, infantry equipment, without putting in much thought about how they will use them. MiG's, Rafale's, Su's, their own fighter jets, airforce comes from almost all corners of the world. Unless I am wrong all local development programs for everything from ships to rifles to planes to tanks have been plagued by endless delays, budget overruns, cancellations (those tenders are endless over there) and a bottomless pit of corruption and, very importantly, low output for the army size they need to have. I have doubts about level of soldier training, too.