War (?) has broken out in Nagorno-Karabakh between Armenia and Azerbaijan

[Monster Hunter]

That sounds like tactics that a certain beacon of democracy reverts to every election cycle too.

yea and for similar reasons, i mean i say juntas and such because its more common, also being smaller nations they often pick fights with other small nations like Kuwait or targets they think big nations dont care about like the falklands this means they dont expect much collateral damage in return thus making it more frequent amongst them, but large nations and even empires have done exactly the same thing and in all forms of goverment from democracy to communism, ala the USSR's invasion of afghanistan.

tbh im mosrt suprised its taken this long for a war to start, usualy its dosnt take as long befor smaller nations and thus larger nations start beating the drums of war in these scenarios.

[Mihalik]

Turks are now claiming that the Armenians are allied with the Kurds and that they are using Kurds to fight the Azeris....

Turkey has once again found its 2 favorite punching bags the Kurds and the Armenians.

[Kallisto]

Will they go 3 for 3 and blame Greece for something soon as well

[Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang]

Turks are now claiming that the Armenians are allied with the Kurds and that they are using Kurds to fight the Azeris....

Turkey has once again found its 2 favorite punching bags the Kurds and the Armenians.

I can't wait for some German politician to say something and have Erdogan denounce him as a Nazi on state television as usual, but thats probably not gonna happen.

On another hand, given the recent turn of relations between France and Turkey, and the ancient ties of France with Armenia and its diaspora, I wonder if we can expect something from Macron.

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Armenia currently is saying that they have recaptured everything lost. Even if that is not true it still means that Azerbaijan is stuck. And if Azeris are stuck it means that Azerbaijani president might have bigger issues at home...

Erdogan is using some thinly veiled threats of intervention and Armenia is threatening to use Iskanders if that happens "We will not allow the second genocide".



It is not exactly new knowledge. Both are ex-USSR states, armed with Soviet weapons and with strong economic relations. Of course they are gonna keep buying them from Russia right over the border.
Armenia also has Russian military base.

I got really thinking lately on the probability of Armenia drifting, like Israel, towards the nuclear option, as I already knew they had a soviet-era nuclear power plant. Apparently these last few years there were even a few comments from Armenian officials about that.

Now with Erdogan entering the fray, and given the history Armenians have with the Turks, if it were true, one can hope he does not do anything stupid, else we'll get to see which trumps which between Iskander and S-400...

[jonnysensible]

aye macrons a prick but hes got some fucking balls. He wont mince around.

heres some context from the beeb because some people seem to be getting it wrong

The Caucasus are a strategically important mountainous region in south-east Europe. For centuries, different powers in the region - both Christian and Muslim - have vied for control there.
Modern-day Armenia and Azerbaijan both became part of the Soviet Union when it was formed in the 1920s. Nagorno-Karabakh was an ethnic-majority Armenian region, but the Soviets gave control over the area to Azerbaijan authorities.
The Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh made several calls to be transferred to Armenian authority control in the following decades. But it was only as the Soviet Union began to collapse in the late 1980s that Nagorno-Karabakh's regional parliament officially voted to become part of Armenia.
Azerbaijan sought to suppress the separatist movement, while Armenia backed it. This led to ethnic clashes, and - after Armenia and Azerbaijan declared independence from Moscow - a full-scale war.
Tens of thousands died and up to a million were displaced amid reports of ethnic cleansing and massacres committed by both sides.
Armenian forces gained control of Nagorno-Karabakh before a Russian-brokered ceasefire was declared in 1994. After that deal, Nagorno-Karabakh remained part of Azerbaijan, but since then has mostly been governed by a separatist, self-declared republic, run by ethnic Armenians and backed by the Armenian government.
It also established the Nagorno-Karabakh Line of Contact, separating Armenian and Azerbaijan forces.
Peace talks have taken place since then mediated by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group - a body set up in 1992 and chaired by France, Russia and the United States.
But so far a peace treaty has not been signed. Clashes have continued throughout the past three decades, with the last serious flare up in 2016, when dozens of troops on both sides died.
The conflict is further complicated by geopolitics. Nato member-state Turkey was the first nation to recognise Azerbaijan's independence in 1991. Former Azeri President Heydar Aliyev once described the two as "one nation with two states". Both share a Turkic culture and populations, and Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has pledged his nation's support for Azerbaijan.
Moreover, Turkey has no official relations with Armenia. In 1993 Turkey shut its border with Armenia in support of Azerbaijan during the war over Nagorno-Karabakh.
Armenia meanwhile has good relations with Russia. There is a Russian military base in Armenia, and both are members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) military alliance. However, President Vladimir Putin also has good relations with Azerbaijan, and Moscow has called for a ceasefire.
In 2018, Armenia underwent a peaceful revolution, sweeping long-time ruler Serzh Sargysan from power. Protest leader Nikol Pashinyan became the prime minister after free elections that year.
Mr Pashinyan agreed with Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliev to de-escalate tensions and set up the first military hotline between the two countries. In 2019, both nations issued a statement declaring the need for "taking concrete measures to prepare the populations for peace".
As yet however, nothing has come of those words. It is unclear which nations started the latest violence but tensions have been high for months, since clashes in July left casualties on both sides.

turkey has been recruiting mercs in idlib for the past month, and it can move some from libya now haftar pissed his pants and withdrew from tripoli.

A little war on the edge of europe with nato's most reckless member leading the charge.

[Logwyn]

Will they go 3 for 3 and blame Greece for something soon as well

There's always the Cyprus issue hanging around.

[Easo]

Third morning and Azerbaijan is attacking again. It does not look like Armenia is able to deal with the drone strikes (and they did have some time to prepare...). But there is no info how much of said drones Azeris have lost and the ground offensive is not exactly going well for them.

I got really thinking lately on the probability of Armenia drifting, like Israel, towards the nuclear option, as I already knew they had a soviet-era nuclear power plant. Apparently these last few years there were even a few comments from Armenian officials about that.

Now with Erdogan entering the fray, and given the history Armenians have with the Turks, if it were true, one can hope he does not do anything stupid, else we'll get to see which trumps which between Iskander and S-400...

Armenia can't afford nukes and it would make them pariah. Armenian officials like to bullshit a lot, welcome to every country in that region.

You won't see it as no S-400 units have been deployed by Turkey as of ~one week ago. Plus Iskanders would be flying to Azeri's, not Turkey.
It is just a tactical missile with high-explosive warhead. Azerbaijan has those too.

Will they go 3 for 3 and blame Greece for something soon as well

Let's add Israel too and then some whining by Erdogan how everyone is a Nazi and does not understand Turkey's fight for the betterment of the world.
/s

[Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang]

Let's add Israel too and then some whining by Erdogan how everyone is a Nazi and does not understand Turkey's fight for the betterment of the world.
/s

"Funnily" enough, around the last time there were clashes, with the Azeris using high tech gadgets to snipe Armenians convoys and positions, there was actually some pro-Azeri spinning running in Israel (hint : much of the gadgetry was from Israel).

Edit : its actually still a current thing

https://www.jpost.com/opinion/why-is...rbaijan-637151

https://www.haaretz.com/opinion/.premium-why-azerbaijan-is-good-for-israel-1.5322865

Azerbaijan is apparently Israel's 5th trading partner, being one of its main supplier of energy and an avid purchaser of Israeli technology, not the least military technology.

[MCMLXXXII]

I wonder if this will also start something in Nakhchivan.

[Thekri]

Looks like some significant escalations in scale today. Armenia is claiming a dozen tank kills in just 3 hours, and both sides have lost a significant number of aircraft. Armenian positions north of Nagorno-Karbakh are also under Azeri artillery fire, marking an escalation in the geographic area, as Azerbaijan attempts to get around Armenian defenses.

Notably, Turkey is ramping up both its rhetoric and direct support, insisting the conflict cannot end without the full return of Nagorno-Karbakh to Azerbaijan's control (Which isn't something that seems likely on the ground right now). Armenia is claiming that a Turkish F-16 shot down one of their Su-25 jets as well, which tracks with what we already know about Turkish fighter pilots shooting first and asking questions later.

This will probably get a lot worse before it gets better. I am really not sure what threshold this has to cross before CNN and its ilk start calling it a "War" instead of "Border Clashes".

[Easo]

Yeah, today is marked by escalations. I really do not believe Turkey is actually planning to evade, but they could shift enough material and men to Azerbaijan to break the stalemate. Question about shootdown is still open, though. Russia and Armenia has united air defense, so someone clearly knows what really happened.

This will probably get a lot worse before it gets better. I am really not sure what threshold this has to cross before CNN and its ilk start calling it a "War" instead of "Border Clashes".

Everything from every kind of media is conflict/clashes nowadays, so get used to it, unfortunetaly. And it is not just because said media decided to call it like that. People dislike hearing the word war.

[Thekri]

I wonder if this will also start something in Nakhchivan.

The Prime Minister of Armenia says it will, and claims Turkey may have already moved troops into the area.

Meanwhile, the main controversy today seems to be the direct involvement of Turkish F-16s in combat operations. They are accused both of shooting down an Armenian Su-25, and also providing interdiction strikes against Armenian military sites. Turkey is emphatically denying this, as is Azerbaijan, and as far as I am aware nobody has actually presented any evidence. So we really don't know. I think it is solidly likely, but it is tough to say for sure. Russia is claiming it is true, but again, that isn't exactly a reliable source either.

The ground war seems be be expanding and getting larger, but it seems very bogged down. Azerbaijan doesn't seem to have advanced more then 2-3 kilometers anywhere, and for context, 2-3 kilometers is very much in the effective range of a Main Battle Tanks gun in that terrain, so it isn't much of an advance. An actually successful armored attack takes 70-150 kilometers a day (Unless it is like the US in Iraq, which is more like 700 kilometers a day).

[Logwyn]

Let's add Israel too and then some whining by Erdogan how everyone is a Nazi and does not understand Turkey's fight for the betterment of the world.
/s

Throw Cyprus in there too!

[Thekri]

Today seems like further escalations, this definitely doesn't look like a border skirmish that is likely to draw down. The fighting has been pretty consistent, it is a stalemate along the border. Armenia spent 25 years preparing to hold the border, and it looks like they are doing that, there have been no significant penetrations by Azeri ground forces. All the fighting has been within 2-3 km from the original line. There is a significant amount of attrition though, Azeribaijan is effective in its air interdiction campaign, while Armenia is dominating the ground fight, so both sides are taking considerable losses.

The real news is in the diplomatic/foriegn interference area though. Turkey is getting a lot more blatant in its intervention, Armenia claims that the Turkish Air Force has assumed operational control of the air fight (Which would explain why it has been fairly successful). Meanwhile, Turkey has said it will provide "Whatever is needed" to Azerbaijan to end the Armenian occupation. Armenia has been making public noises about invoking its mutual defense treaty with Russia, especially considering the attacks in Armenia itself yesterday. This is VERY significant, as it opens direct conflict between a NATO nation and Russia. Granted, this already happened in Syria, but it isn't a good trend.

A wild card that hasn't been discussed in detail so far is Iran, who has a weirdly complicated relationship with the combatants. Azerbaijan is a predominately Shiite Muslim nation, and Iran probably has more ethnic Azeris then Azerbaijan does, so Iran should be a natural ally to them. However, because geopolitics is messy, they hate each others guts, and Iran is a staunch ally of the Armenia, which is primary Christian. This mostly comes down to Azerbaijan having a very different set of friends, most significantly Israel and Turkey. Iran also has a rather tense alliance with Russia, so it might be willing to act as a Kremlin proxy here if Putin doesn't want to commit the Russian military. Iran shot down an Azeri drone on its border this morning, and is mobilizing its regular military, so this is an unlikely, but potentially massive escalation that is simmering on the opposite border of Azerbaijan.

edit: Oh, and as @jonnysensible pointed out yesterday, Turkey has been recruiting fighters in Turkey, and flying them to Azerbaijan. There are quite a lot of these Mercenaries, and Azerbaijan appears to be using them as cannon fodder, because quite a lot of the Azeri casualties appear to be these Syrian fighters.

[Easo]

As Thekri said, this is escalating - supposed tactical missile strikes, warplanes are starting to be used and shot down (both sides have relatively small airforces, each can almost guaranteed destroy the opposing one well before ground forces will run out of tanks). And it more and more looks like Turkey has airlifted fighters from Syria to Azerbaijan - those have been dying too.
Overall casualties should be in hundreds of dead by now.

Armenians are bleeding, especially due to UAV strikes which seem to be everywhere (but Azeris have been loosing them too), yet it looks like Azerbaijan is not able to make any real advances - another example that money and nationalistic/religious fervour does not make the army. Not sure how long this can go on.
Propaganda by both sides is everywhere, but please, Armenian MOD, cut the crapp dramatic trailer music from the videos, it is embarrasing.

[Kuntantee]

We are talking about an occupation by Armenia that entire world ignores. Our occupation in Cyprus is reminded to us almost daily, where as the same countries who criticize us for invading Cyprus abstained from voting. Let me remind you that there is not a single European country that voted yes.

I am glad that we support Azerbaijan.

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Armenian MOD, cut the crapp dramatic trailer music from the videos, it is embarrasing.

They should stop lying too. They said our jets hit them inside Armenia w/o any proof. They also claim that Turkey is transferring Syrian jihadists w/o any proof. Of course, we live in an age where facts do not matter so people swallowed that horse crap w/o even thinking about it.

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edit: Oh, and as @jonnysensible pointed out yesterday, Turkey has been recruiting fighters in Turkey, and flying them to Azerbaijan. There are quite a lot of these Mercenaries, and Azerbaijan appears to be using them as cannon fodder, because quite a lot of the Azeri casualties appear to be these Syrian fighters.

Proof?

/10chars

[Thekri]

We are talking about an occupation by Armenia that entire world ignores. Our occupation in Cyprus is reminded to us almost daily, where as the same countries who criticize us for invading Cyprus abstained from voting. Let me remind you that there is not a single European country that voted yes.

I am glad that we support Azerbaijan.

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They should stop lying too. They said our jets hit them inside Armenia w/o any proof. They also claim that Turkey is transferring Syrian jihadists w/o any proof. Of course, we live in an age where facts do not matter so people swallowed that horse crap w/o even thinking about it.

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Proof?

/10chars

Ah, here is the patriotic Turk, glad you showed up to present your side of things. Not being sarcastic either, if you have something useful to add, other then just demanding proof for developing events in the middle of war zone, please do so.

As far as the points you did raise, fair enough. The occupation by Armenia is an actual occupation of Azerbaijani territory according to international law. Every country in the world, including Armenia, recognizes Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan. The reason the rest of the world isn't anxious to resolve the matter is because Armenia only occupied in the first place because Azerbaijan was slaughtering ethnic Armenians, and Armenia felt the need to protect them. If Azerbaijan regains control of that region, there is very little doubt from anyone reasonable that that ethnic cleansing will resume, and most countries aren't comfortable with enabling that. I am well aware that your counter-point to this will be "Fake News", and claim that ethnic cleansing never happened. But that is bullshit.

As far as the rest of your post, all you are doing is demanding proof from a war zone, and neither proof nor wars work like that. Armenia publish pictures of their downed jet, surrounded by Armenian soldiers. Now is that jet actually inside Armenia? We don't actually know. Did the Turks actually shoot it down? We don't know that either. If your base assumption is that that Armenians are lying (Which they might be), then there is no proof.

Same with the Syrian fighters. There is a lot of social media noise about them, but that could all be fake. Syrian communities are releasing lists of names of their local men that have been killed in the fighting, but that could also be fake.

So you are welcome to keep claiming everything is fake. It is pretty much impossible to prove you wrong, because there is no standard of evidence for any "Proof" that could convince you otherwise. Because every single source in an event like this is a biased source. There are no impartial observers or empirical evidence.

[Kuntantee]

Ah, here is the patriotic Turk, glad you showed up to present your side of things. Not being sarcastic either, if you have something useful to add, other then just demanding proof for developing events in the middle of war zone, please do so.

As far as the points you did raise, fair enough. The occupation by Armenia is an actual occupation of Azerbaijani territory according to international law. Every country in the world, including Armenia, recognizes Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan. The reason the rest of the world isn't anxious to resolve the matter is because Armenia only occupied in the first place because Azerbaijan was slaughtering ethnic Armenians, and Armenia felt the need to protect them. If Azerbaijan regains control of that region, there is very little doubt from anyone reasonable that that ethnic cleansing will resume, and most countries aren't comfortable with enabling that. I am well aware that your counter-point to this will be "Fake News", and claim that ethnic cleansing never happened. But that is bullshit.

As far as the rest of your post, all you are doing is demanding proof from a war zone, and neither proof nor wars work like that. Armenia publish pictures of their downed jet, surrounded by Armenian soldiers. Now is that jet actually inside Armenia? We don't actually know. Did the Turks actually shoot it down? We don't know that either. If your base assumption is that that Armenians are lying (Which they might be), then there is no proof.

Same with the Syrian fighters. There is a lot of social media noise about them, but that could all be fake. Syrian communities are releasing lists of names of their local men that have been killed in the fighting, but that could also be fake.

So you are welcome to keep claiming everything is fake. It is pretty much impossible to prove you wrong, because there is no standard of evidence for any "Proof" that could convince you otherwise. Because every single source in an event like this is a biased source. There are no impartial observers or empirical evidence.

I was going to write a full response, but I decided not to considering the amount of illiteracy leaking in this post. You may want to read the history of conflict. Your 2nd paragraph is pure fantasy. Furthermore, of course I am going to ask for evidence or proof. That's what a healthy mind does. We are at a point where people do not even try to hide that they are not interested in facts.

I am being called out for asking for evidence, can you believe it?

[Thekri]

I was going to write a full response, but I decided not to considering the amount of illiteracy leaking in this post. You may want to read the history of conflict. Your 2nd paragraph is pure fantasy. Furthermore, of course I am going to ask for evidence or proof. That's what a healthy mind does. We are at a point where people do not even try to hide that they are not interested in facts.

I am being called out for asking for evidence, can you believe it?

Not evidence, "Proof". Evidence is important, but the nature of a conflict usually prevents anyone from having a clear idea what is going on at the time. The term "Fog of War" is a relevant one here. Of course you deny ethnic cleansing of Armenians, you deny the Ottomans did it as well. Demanding "proof" in a conflict is usually the sign of someone attempting to obfuscate the facts. It is the same tact people take when they demand "proof" of the Holocaust. Of course there is a lot of proof, but none of it will ever be acceptable to its deniers, for the same reason you just used against Armenia "They are lying".

Edit: Also learn what the word "illiteracy" means. You might be surprised!

[Kuntantee]

Not evidence, "Proof". Evidence is important, but the nature of a conflict usually prevents anyone from having a clear idea what is going on at the time. The term "Fog of War" is a relevant one here. Of course you deny ethnic cleansing of Armenians, you deny the Ottomans did it as well. Demanding "proof" in a conflict is usually the sign of someone attempting to obfuscate the facts. It is the same tact people take when they demand "proof" of the Holocaust. Of course there is a lot of proof, but none of it will ever be acceptable to its deniers, for the same reason you just used against Armenia "They are lying".

Edit: Also learn what the word "illiteracy" means. You might be surprised!

I am content with evidence, do you have any? Stop dancing around like a belly-dancer.

Here is your orginal statement.

edit: Oh, and as @jonnysensible pointed out yesterday, Turkey has been recruiting fighters in Turkey, and flying them to Azerbaijan. There are quite a lot of these Mercenaries, and Azerbaijan appears to be using them as cannon fodder, because quite a lot of the Azeri casualties appear to be these Syrian fighters.

"Has been recruiting". Here is a link to quench your utter illiteracy.

And, these came from you as well.

Evidence is important, but the nature of a conflict usually prevents anyone from having a clear idea what is going on at the time. The term "Fog of War" is a relevant one here.

Same with the Syrian fighters. There is a lot of social media noise about them, but that could all be fake.

"Fog of War" my ass. Keep dancing/back-peddling.