Guessing the new Shadowlands release date

[Nize]

They can wait until January to release the raid. There is no rule that stated the raid absolutely has to be released x weeks after expansion.

If this was a mid/end-tier patch, I would agree, but not for the initial tier where it would leave the high-end barebones. They need the initial content out there. Future patches can get their post-holiday delay. First set of content can't afford that.

[rrayy]

If this was a mid/end-tier patch, I would agree, but not for the initial tier where it would leave the high-end barebones. They need the initial content out there. Future patches can get their post-holiday delay. First set of content can't afford that.

Noe of their content can afford that and the new expansion release definitely cannot afford that. They are already losing money. IF they delay it again after saying it will still be out this year will make that even worse and jobs will be on the line.

[Malefic]

You contradict yourself. How could they give a release date if they knew it was delayed 2-3 weeks? It could be that they were unsure if it would take 2 weeks or 3 weeks, so no release date until they know for certain. Same can be said for 1-2 weeks delay, or 5-6. Saying it definitely will not release in November because no release date was given is silly and makes no sense.

I think it may be November 17th.

You understand how when you delay a product you likely have a timeline in your head for how long it will take to then ship that product, based on what you want to do with the product and your experience with it?

Let's say for example if Blizzard only want to do some numerical changes and bug fixes, they may think they only need an extra 2-3 weeks.
Let's say for example if Blizzard want to add new systems, adjust current systems and do the aforementioned, the timeline gets longer, and you start reaching a point where you don't really know fully if you can get it done in 4 weeks, or 6, or 8. The more changes you want to make, the less likely you understand the timeline required to achieve those changes, thus you don't have a narrow enough timeframe for when you'd be able to release it again.

If Blizzard just wanted to do numerical fixes and balance, they'd know they'd be able to achieve that within X period of time, therefore they'd give a date just past that to be safe. If they think they need 2-3 weeks longer, they'd give a date 4 or 5 weeks later. The fact they didn't give a date, means they don't know how long they need in order to get the expansion ready, which indicates they likely have a larger scope of changes than just "numerical changes and bug fixes". This, has now been proven to be true since my comment was made and Blizzard released the large blue post stating they had a list of changes they wanted to implement, including expanding the Maw, changing the Conduit lockout system, amongst numerical changes, bug fixes, a complete rebalancing of legendary power, adjustments to the XP/levelling process.

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with the transfer services rebate ending nov 15 the next rumour is nov17.
which is by chance also the "anniversary of wow" event

It's worth noting that we haven't had any indication of the pre-launch event going live yet, which is a 2 week event (in terms of the amount of content), I would imagine Blizzard would want it running for 3 weeks at least.

My personal view is that actually November 17th represents when that pre-launch event will go live, leading us up to a December 1st-15th release date (Although I think 8th is the most likely followed by 15th).

[Nize]

Noe of their content can afford that and the new expansion release definitely cannot afford that. They are already losing money. IF they delay it again after saying it will still be out this year will make that even worse and jobs will be on the line.

Their patched content can afford it because there is current content to delve in, even if done a million times already. Looking at something like 8.1's raid (BoD) being released after the holidays, there's still Uldum and M+ content there to bore yourself with, not so with xpac content. They can't afford a December release, followed by raid in mid-January. I don't think they'll delay beyond 2020, I never said that. I think release will be Nov 17th regardless of quality, with raid 2 weeks after.

[razorpax]

Their patched content can afford it because there is current content to delve in, even if done a million times already. Looking at something like 8.1's raid (BoD) being released after the holidays, there's still Uldum and M+ content there to bore yourself with, not so with xpac content. They can't afford a December release, followed by raid in mid-January. I don't think they'll delay beyond 2020, I never said that. I think release will be Nov 17th regardless of quality, with raid 2 weeks after.

They can easily wait 5 weeks after launch for raid
Torghast will exist so legendaries will start being crafted
World boss rotation means players can get all the powers from them
The renown cap means you will be around unlocking the third soulbind on mythic release
The players will have time for the conduit farm
Time to get the rep grind

There’s no negative to a long wait before the season starts because of all the set up players need to do this expansion and they absolutely CAN’T launch a game that is so busted the leveling experience doesn’t work

[Nyel]

I was already ready for end game launch after a week of BfA, and there's no real grind in SL, it'll be a disaster. People will be bored of the new SL baby, Torghast, because it will be the only thing to do.

At least there will still be raiding, M+ and pvp to do if they just delay everything til Jan.

I don't see this as problematic. We have to remember that it's 2020 and player's attitude might have changed. Many want to go slower, whatever. Maybe nothing has changed, but I think we finally must start seeing this from another perspective with 2020 vision (pun intended). This year isn't normal, Shadowlands delay / development / launch isn't normal.

Splitting the expansion launch and season 1 / raid launch for a month would give both, Blizzard and players, a necessary breathing room.

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If this was a mid/end-tier patch, I would agree, but not for the initial tier where it would leave the high-end barebones. They need the initial content out there. Future patches can get their post-holiday delay. First set of content can't afford that.

But they don't need it when launch is 2 weeks ahead of Christmas. Nobody is going to raid over that time and if Shadowlands launches December 15 the raid isn't mandatory this year.
_________

This pre-patch can exist for a way longer time due to revamped leveling. Other pre-patches didn't have that and just offered an event. Shadowlands pre-patch adds basically a completely revamped leveling experience so that players can play twinks or catch up with leveling (like me).

[The Butt Witch]

Tommorow at 2.

[Onikaroshi]

I don't see this as problematic. We have to remember that it's 2020 and player's attitude might have changed. Many want to go slower, whatever. Maybe nothing has changed, but I think we finally must start seeing this from another perspective with 2020 vision (pun intended). This year isn't normal, Shadowlands delay / development / launch isn't normal.

Splitting the expansion launch and season 1 / raid launch for a month would give both, Blizzard and players, a necessary breathing room.

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But they don't need it when launch is 2 weeks ahead of Christmas. Nobody is going to raid over that time and if Shadowlands launches December 15 the raid isn't mandatory this year.
_________

This pre-patch can exist for a way longer time due to revamped leveling. Other pre-patches didn't have that and just offered an event. Shadowlands pre-patch adds basically a completely revamped leveling experience so that players can play twinks or catch up with leveling (like me).

So why not just extend the prepatch until Jan and not screw with the raid schedule

[Nyel]

So why not just extend the prepatch until Jan and not screw with the raid schedule

I mean, what exactly is the problem of Shadowlands launching 4 weeks before the raid opens? You still can do Torghast, dungeons, craft your legendary or whatever. There's enough to do over a worldwide holiday to keep you busy, you really don't need the raid in the first place. Plus, a delay until 2021 would be another broken promise ("later this year").

[zantheus1993]

I mean, what exactly is the problem of Shadowlands launching 4 weeks before the raid opens? You still can do Torghast, dungeons, craft your legendary or whatever. There's enough to do over a worldwide holiday to keep you busy, you really don't need the raid in the first place. Plus, a delay until 2021 would be another broken promise ("later this year").

like i stated
shadowlands is in a unique situation with the systems
it can handle a 6 week gap before the season starts and might benefit from it actually because you will get tons of information about the covenant abilities and soulbinds in that time

so lets say it launches the 1st and there is a 6 week gap

high end will have their alts and mains

average players will have their main
they will be geared from m0 mostly
they will have a renown of 18 so the story and soulbind will be powered accordingly
they will have the anima for some purchases and most leggo powers for their class
they will have lets say 6 weeks of torghast ash so thats what 2 leggos or a rank 2 leggo

so relatively they will be at the same power level as they were at the beginning of legion with its standard raid release

[Nyel]

like i stated
shadowlands is in a unique situation with the systems
it can handle a 6 week gap before the season starts and might benefit from it actually because you will get tons of information about the covenant abilities and soulbinds in that time

so lets say it launches the 1st and there is a 6 week gap

high end will have their alts and mains

average players will have their main
they will be geared from m0 mostly
they will have a renown of 18 so the story and soulbind will be powered accordingly
they will have the anima for some purchases and most leggo powers for their class
they will have lets say 6 weeks of torghast ash so thats what 2 leggos or a rank 2 leggo

so relatively they will be at the same power level as they were at the beginning of legion with its standard raid release

I completely agree, there is enough to do in the 4-5 weeks from expansion launch to raid opening, especially if we consider the holidays in between. This is like every expansion should launch imho, as it would prevent rushing to just get prepared asap for raids.

[sensei-]

I completely agree, there is enough to do in the 4-5 weeks from expansion launch to raid opening, especially if we consider the holidays in between. This is like every expansion should launch imho, as it would prevent rushing to just get prepared asap for raids.

I agree with this. I'd also prefer expansion launches where you know you have enough time to farm dungeon BIS, while exploring some of the other parts of the game at your own speed. All the while keeping your real life commitments. Expansion launches where you have to play 16 hours per day just to keep up serve no real purpose for the vast majority of gamers.

[Sluvs]

Tentative guess is Nov 17th. Any later and it tries to cram itself right in the middle of the Thanksgiving / Christmas season. Since we know they're releasing the raid 2 weeks after launch, that's pretty much the only date it can be.

November 24th would be the next week, but the 26th is Thanksgiving and you'd assume they want to be home with their families and not troubleshooting a botched launch if it goes South.

Dec 1st could be a possibility as it would be 15th when raiding goes live. That would give the world first guilds a week to race to first before near Christmas time and a reduced WoW crew.

Dec 15th is my second longest shot date. That would put the raid start at the 29th, wedging it in between Christmas and New Years.

My longest shot is that they just delay it until 2021. Frankly, they don't have a lot of great options and the system lasagna they've created is going to be next to impossible to balance. This delay is a stop gap measure in the hopes they can pull something even close to balance, but even if so, it doesn't address another major issue players have with it; the switching for different aspects of content.

I think if they release in december they wil delay the raid until january, that would make this date work,

[dragothica]

What do you think will happen with the Shadowlands Collector's Edition and other physical editions? Will they be shipped on previous release date or are they also delayed until the actual expansion is launched?

[zantheus1993]

I think if they release in december they wil delay the raid until january, that would make this date work,

they will
honestly the people who are saying "no they cant afford to delay raid" dont realize the amount of stuff that you ae going to be doing at cap

[Tiradon]

December 8th or 2021 would be perfect for me. For starters December 8th it's holiday in Spain/Portugal and I can book 3 days off in that week without a problem.

November is a big no go for me since I already took a week off for PS5 and Demon Souls

they will
honestly the people who are saying "no they cant afford to delay raid" dont realize the amount of stuff that you ae going to be doing at cap

Yeah it's fine by me.

[crusadernero]

Mid January.

[Nyel]

What do you think will happen with the Shadowlands Collector's Edition and other physical editions? Will they be shipped on previous release date or are they also delayed until the actual expansion is launched?

They've already been shipped and for example, my ordered CE is in delivery and will get to me today (pre-ordered on Amazon).

Edit: got delivered.

[Dystemper]

Mid January.

I am thinking this as well

[Zenfoldor]

I just think that if they were going to release it this year, they would have not delayed, released it on time and fixed it before the holidays. I think we will see a delay into next year.

Holidays are fast approaching after a very tough year. This being the MMO, with world firsts and a long and storied history makes it even more difficult to pull off.

I do hope it launches this year. However, I have very strong doubts about that even being possible, much less an expected course of action. I hope I'm wrong.

My prediction is still the same, early 2021, but I would love for the game to be finished and out this year, but if it is not finished, they should take the time they need. I feel BFA could have used some more time in development, and look how the launch period hurt the perception of this xpak.