Mafia #FFA500 - Monsters Among US

[Lora]

No, voting no lynch is a good way to try and stay alive, play the long con and win as one of the factions. Its betting that town wont score the good fortune needed to win the game.

Lynching is taking a gamble. If you do hit one of the 4 scum its a big blow, but its a long shot.

man thats just screaming scummy as fuck wanting to win as one of the cults vs town.

[Kryllian]

unvote

Gotta ponder the trains a bit....

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I'd disagree with Lora in theory based on the context of this game. Proposing a no-lynch and hoping to switch sides could be scummy if there recruiting was limited. Technically in this game it's really only scummy to the Witches since they can't be recruited. Everyone else could be recruited and then its two factions against each other and it comes down to luck of the NK's. But then all townies (minus witches) would have to agree on that strategy and I don't think everyone would.

[Loaf]

Bageloaf voted for Robozerim but he didn't unvote first.

*looks back*

oh, I didn't. Whoops.

unvote vote robozerim

there >_>

[Graeham]

When it comes to recruiting, it'll be worth looking at things from the perspective of players just outright trying to recruit those that they're known to get along with very well. I suspect a degree of 'playing favourites' might seep into things.

On the other hand, we can't rule out a bit of a more cunning approach. Players with a strong track record of consistently making it to the end game, evading lynches and generally just playing well are likely to be snapped up as well.

I have a soft spot for Listo and Val, for example, since they both also play FFXIV...and so if I were a recruiter then I'd be inclined to snap them up ASAP.

[Loaf]

Eh, I wouldn't say it's 'hopeless'. There's been quite a few games where things have seemingly been stacked in favour of one side only for things to play out in a way even the mod could not predict.

yeah, plus Foxxi tends to plan out as though the scum are flawless each and every night. I know that doesn't work well with the current balance, but she did say she would've been comfortable with more people(I think?). Personally, as a townie, I think starting the scum with one member each probably would've been better, buuut, it is what it is.

[Marack]

I think starting the scum with one member each probably would've been better, buuut, it is what it is.

She did say this game would be good for 15+ people... so maybe at that number 1 on each team was the play, but with each additional person, the balance had to shift. Also think about the UNLIKELY event that a 1 person scum recruiter gets lynched d1...

[Xanjori]

If you're town, you'll want to lynch someone. Get voting records going. Let us get voting coalitions and train derailment timings.

I've been thinking it over, the cults need to outnumber combined town+opposite cult. Therefore the more town that die the better chance for the cults. So why exactly do we *need* to lynch today. Removing a town on day 1 means cult need one less recruitment to gain the majority.

[Kryllian]

Unless the mod is being a bastard and not disclosing something in the setup Towns only power is the Lynch.

Lets go though the Math of a no-lynch assuming successful conversions

D1 - No lynch - 14 town- 2 Vamp - 2 Wolf
N1 - 2 conversions - 12 town - 3 Vamp - 3 Wolf

D2 - No lynch - 12 town - 3 Vamp - 3 Wolf
N2 - 2 conversions - 10 town - 4 Vamp - 4 Wolf

D3 - No lynch - 10 town - 4 Vamp - 4 Wolf
N3 - 2 conversions - 8 town - 5 Vamp - 5 Wolf

Even if we start lynching D4 since mathematically the odds are in favor of hitting a cult, town is pretty much done unless the cults start turning on each other instead of continuing to recruit. If I was a cult I'd recruit until I was out of options then start the bloodbath and hope not to hit a witch.

Lets go though the Math of a no-lynch assuming failed conversions

D1 - No lynch - 14 town- 2 Vamp - 2 Wolf
N1 - 2 conversions - 14 town- 2 Vamp - 2 Wolf

D2 - No lynch - 14 town- 2 Vamp - 2 Wolf
N2 - 2 conversions - 14 town- 2 Vamp - 2 Wolf

D3 - No lynch - 14 town- 2 Vamp - 2 Wolf
N3 - 2 conversions - 14 town- 2 Vamp - 2 Wolf

Town's position doesn't improve unless the cult starts trying to kill each other. Again, not a likely scenario since they are safer attempting to recruit and get the biggest faction.

Best Case Town Scenario (Cultist lynched each day and conversions fail)

D1 - Lynch cultist - 14 town- 2 Vamp - 1 Wolf
N1 - 2 failed conversions - 14 town- 2 Vamp - 1 Wolf

D2 - No lynch - 14 town- 1 Vamp - 1 Wolf
N2 - 2 failed conversions - 14 town- 1 Vamp - 1 Wolf

repeat...Day 4 town wins

Worst Case Town Scenario (Town lynched each day and conversions successful)

D1 - Lynch Town- 13 town- 2 Vamp - 2 Wolf
N1 - 2 conversions - 11 town- 3 Vamp - 3 Wolf

D2 - Lynch Town - 10 town- 3 Vamp - 3 Wolf
N2 - 2 conversions - 8 town- 4 Vamp - 4 Wolf

D3 - Lynch Town - 7 town- 4 Vamp - 4 Wolf
N3 - 2 conversions - 5 town- 5 Vamp - 5 Wolf

Town is out of luck by N3 unless they start lynching cultists and cultists NK instead of attempting to convert the last 3 townies they can (assuming no witches were lynched up to this point)

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I'll also point out that assuming cults convert, Town will only get information from lynches. A successful conversion won't reveal any roles or change the number of players and won't provide us any additional basis for determining who to lynch the next day.

[listo95]

When it comes to recruiting, it'll be worth looking at things from the perspective of players just outright trying to recruit those that they're known to get along with very well. I suspect a degree of 'playing favourites' might seep into things.

On the other hand, we can't rule out a bit of a more cunning approach. Players with a strong track record of consistently making it to the end game, evading lynches and generally just playing well are likely to be snapped up as well.

I have a soft spot for Listo and Val, for example, since they both also play FFXIV...and so if I were a recruiter then I'd be inclined to snap them up ASAP.

Yay soft spot! The catboi approves of this!

Unless the mod is being a bastard and not disclosing something in the setup Towns only power is the Lynch.

I'll also point out that assuming cults convert, Town will only get information from lynches. A successful conversion won't reveal any roles or change the number of players and won't provide us any additional basis for determining who to lynch the next day.

And again the issue of this arises, vote records become unreliable in cult games.

[Lora]

Unless the mod is being a bastard and not disclosing something in the setup Towns only power is the Lynch.

Lets go though the Math of a no-lynch assuming successful conversions

D1 - No lynch - 14 town- 2 Vamp - 2 Wolf
N1 - 2 conversions - 12 town - 3 Vamp - 3 Wolf

D2 - No lynch - 12 town - 3 Vamp - 3 Wolf
N2 - 2 conversions - 10 town - 4 Vamp - 4 Wolf

D3 - No lynch - 10 town - 4 Vamp - 4 Wolf
N3 - 2 conversions - 8 town - 5 Vamp - 5 Wolf

Even if we start lynching D4 since mathematically the odds are in favor of hitting a cult, town is pretty much done unless the cults start turning on each other instead of continuing to recruit. If I was a cult I'd recruit until I was out of options then start the bloodbath and hope not to hit a witch.

Lets go though the Math of a no-lynch assuming failed conversions

D1 - No lynch - 14 town- 2 Vamp - 2 Wolf
N1 - 2 conversions - 14 town- 2 Vamp - 2 Wolf

D2 - No lynch - 14 town- 2 Vamp - 2 Wolf
N2 - 2 conversions - 14 town- 2 Vamp - 2 Wolf

D3 - No lynch - 14 town- 2 Vamp - 2 Wolf
N3 - 2 conversions - 14 town- 2 Vamp - 2 Wolf

Town's position doesn't improve unless the cult starts trying to kill each other. Again, not a likely scenario since they are safer attempting to recruit and get the biggest faction.

Best Case Town Scenario (Cultist lynched each day and conversions fail)

D1 - Lynch cultist - 14 town- 2 Vamp - 1 Wolf
N1 - 2 failed conversions - 14 town- 2 Vamp - 1 Wolf

D2 - No lynch - 14 town- 1 Vamp - 1 Wolf
N2 - 2 failed conversions - 14 town- 1 Vamp - 1 Wolf

repeat...Day 4 town wins

Worst Case Town Scenario (Town lynched each day and conversions successful)

D1 - Lynch Town- 13 town- 2 Vamp - 2 Wolf
N1 - 2 conversions - 11 town- 3 Vamp - 3 Wolf

D2 - Lynch Town - 10 town- 3 Vamp - 3 Wolf
N2 - 2 conversions - 8 town- 4 Vamp - 4 Wolf

D3 - Lynch Town - 7 town- 4 Vamp - 4 Wolf
N3 - 2 conversions - 5 town- 5 Vamp - 5 Wolf

Town is out of luck by N3 unless they start lynching cultists and cultists NK instead of attempting to convert the last 3 townies they can (assuming no witches were lynched up to this point)

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I'll also point out that assuming cults convert, Town will only get information from lynches. A successful conversion won't reveal any roles or change the number of players and won't provide us any additional basis for determining who to lynch the next day.

i mean witches are town and a passive power for town. ghosts would be useful if they had any ability besides just talking at night but thats useless for the most part other than to push their unbased theories on who the cultists are. lynching is the only thing town can do and we have to do it. we literally have no chance of winning if we do no lynches.

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Yay soft spot! The catboi approves of this!

And again the issue of this arises, vote records become unreliable in cult games.

vote records are useless in general. especially if you are trying to take day 1 vote records as indicator of anything other than bullshit and guessing lol.

[Blood Fox]

Meh I've let go of past grudges at this point personally :P

I will never forgive and never forget

[SatsuBL]

Best Case Town Scenario (Cultist lynched each day and conversions fail)

D1 - Lynch cultist - 14 town- 2 Vamp - 1 Wolf
N1 - 2 failed conversions - 14 town- 2 Vamp - 1 Wolf

D2 - No lynch - 14 town- 1 Vamp - 1 Wolf
N2 - 2 failed conversions - 14 town- 1 Vamp - 1 Wolf

repeat...Day 4 town wins

So after day1 there are only 4 targets one scum team can't recruit. 2 witches and 2 other scum and 3 targets another team can't recruit 2 witches and 1 other scum (another one was lynched). Their odds at failing are 4/16 and 3/15. So 25% and 20%.

On night 3 last scums odds of not geting a recruit should be 2/13 (15% or so) and only if their previous tries were on 2 other team scum that are now lynched.

I don't want to do exact numbers on what town chances of wining are in best case scenario but its probally around 1%.

Also I think optimal lynch order should be :
1. Wolf ( can't let them use track ability or they will just scout their target ahead of time and it reduces chances of failed recruit even more)
2.3. Vamp ( last wolf needs to waste 2 recruit attempts on those 2 vamps)
4. Wolf

This is just theory and it is practically undoable.

[Kryllian]

I don't want to do exact numbers on what town chances of wining are in best case scenario but its probally around 1%.

it's been awhile since I've done a stats calculation but if I'm correct for Day 1 it's 0.92% of a cult lynch plus two missed conversions happening at the same time.

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We're approaching the 2 hour mark until end of Day. Any more thoughts from anyone?

[SatsuBL]

Right I didn't even multiply chances of pulling a cult lynch with failed recruit. Nah town can't win this. Humans can just not as town. Sucks for witches. Their win-con should just be get killed by cult.

[Blood Fox]

unvote
Vote: jynxiej

I have to do this out of fairness for last of posts and the fact that they are not my cult partners. Would my other partner please follow this. Also if you’re cute please follow this.

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Well good thing I never crossed you then, We've always gotten along kinda well I thought XD

Dis true, Iv never had problems with the duck.

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Update: please follow my train for a last hour lynch. Thea the most fair and I started it so I think it’s pretty cool. If they are town you can blame me. If they are not town you can also blame me for destroying the cult.

[Marack]

unvote
Vote: jynxiej

I have to do this out of fairness for last of posts and the fact that they are not my cult partners. Would my other partner please follow this. Also if you’re cute please follow this.

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Dis true, Iv never had problems with the duck.

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Update: please follow my train for a last hour lynch. Thea the most fair and I started it so I think it’s pretty cool. If they are town you can blame me. If they are not town you can also blame me for destroying the cult.

Odd that you would switch to someone with no votes... almost guaranteeing a no-lynch

[Blood Fox]

Odd that you would switch to someone with no votes... almost guaranteeing a no-lynch

Hi yes I’m scum please vote with me so we can get the person with the least post

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Also it’s not like anyone was on my target anyways soooooooo I’m trying to start a train that will end in a lynch. Why don’t you help eh?

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I’m simply trying to protect my scum buddies robo and pistol and wanna get a lynch on the town while I’m at it.

[Kryllian]

We're not even close to a majority by my count (well based on the last vote count i saw someone post with changes since then) Robo is the closest but we still would need 4 to switch. 4 of us are still currently on nobody.

Robozerim - 5 (Listo95, Catta, TimeskipPistol, SatsuBL, Bageloaf)
TimeskipPistol - 3 (lora, Marack, Val the Moofia Boss)
Listo95 - 2 (dupti, Robozerim)
Marack - 1 (JynxieJ)
Catta - 1 (Xanjori)
Lora - 1 (Bwonsamdi)
JynxieJ – 1(Blood Fox)

[FoxxiMcLeod]

Hour and a half until the end of day

Current Vote Tally:

Robozerim - 5 (Listo95, Catta, TimeskipPistol, SatsuBL, Bageloaf)
TimeskipPistol - 3 (lora, Marack, Val the Moofia Boss)
Listo95 - 2 (dupti, Robozerim)
Marack - 1 (JynxieJ)
Catta - 1 (Xanjori)
Lora - 1 (Bwonsamdi)
JynxieJ - 1 (Blood Fox)

[Blood Fox]

Scum love to hide behind not switching a vote late.