Mafia #FFA500 - Monsters Among US

[Loaf]

who was it who used to have the lynch all canadians thing?

[Graeham]

that is the biggest untown move voting for no lynch. big SUS

How so?

Given the setup, we've a high chance to lynch town rather than scum. There's also two different factions who can recruit. They start with two members each and the worst case scenario is that they both successfully recruit somebody during the night phase.

Which boosts the total number of scum from four to six. Combined with a lynch, today, on a town player we'd be looking at three town players being removed from the playing board.

Scum aren't likely to be shooting blindly in the dark on night one. They're more likely to try and recruit someone to boost their numbers and try to avoid hitting a witch in the early game. The worst case scenario for either of the scum teams is that send someone out to perform a kill during the night phase and hit a witch, which takes that scum player down as well. That brings their number down from two to one during the night phase and means that during the following day phase, if they're lynched then their team is completely wiped out.

[Loaf]

wait, how do we know they have two members each? :thinking:

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nvm, just saw foxxi put their comp in the op

[Robozerim]

As much as I wanna see Xanjori croak imma

Unvote Vote Robo

Given what he wrote I don't trust him to have town interests at heart unless he's dead as town at which point he can't turn but still communicate. If we're lucky he's just scum. A no-lynch is counterproductive to town and tells us nothing and only pushes it a day.

Rude. I answered a question, and I stand by what I said, a selfish townie has incentive to not lynch people in this double cult game. I didn't say in any of it that I wasn't going to vote or go for a no lynch.

As an aside, I would add to my previous statements and point out that from a selfish cultist's perspective (as opposed to the selfish town player's perspective), lynching anybody that isn't already on your team is good since it still gets you closer to winning and your win condition isn't at risk of changing to where a lynch that was good for you is now bad.

[Lora]

How so?

Given the setup, we've a high chance to lynch town rather than scum. There's also two different factions who can recruit. They start with two members each and the worst case scenario is that they both successfully recruit somebody during the night phase.

Which boosts the total number of scum from four to six. Combined with a lynch, today, on a town player we'd be looking at three town players being removed from the playing board.

Scum aren't likely to be shooting blindly in the dark on night one. They're more likely to try and recruit someone to boost their numbers and try to avoid hitting a witch in the early game. The worst case scenario for either of the scum teams is that send someone out to perform a kill during the night phase and hit a witch, which takes that scum player down as well. That brings their number down from two to one during the night phase and means that during the following day phase, if they're lynched then their team is completely wiped out.

because no voting day 1 always ends up ending up in scums favor.

[Robozerim]

who was it who used to have the lynch all canadians thing?

I want to say Krayzy. Maybe Lysah?

[Virothe]

I want to say Krayzy. Maybe Lysah?

Kray for the most park, others here and there

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absolutely astute observation and scintillating diatribe confidant.

Go fluff yourself

[Lora]

Kray for the most park, others here and there

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Go fluff yourself

i'd be offended if it was anyone but you. i'll make you my meal sir ducksalot.

[LemonDemonGirl]

who was it who used to have the lynch all canadians thing?

Uh.... oh.... I'm Canadian

*Sweats nervously*

[JynxieJ]

Here is my thought. I don't care for day 1 fluff. Plus I have been gonna for along time so I don't really see anything or any tells atm. I mean there could have been in the Robo post but I don't think he is really that careless. This is an extremely long day 1 for some reason. My vote doesn't have to stick to Marack it is only here because we always end up voting each other, so look at the people that have jumped on this one FYI.

[Marack]

Here is my thought. I don't care for day 1 fluff. Plus I have been gonna for along time so I don't really see anything or any tells atm. I mean there could have been in the Robo post but I don't think he is really that careless. This is an extremely long day 1 for some reason. My vote doesn't have to stick to Marack it is only here because we always end up voting each other, so look at the people that have jumped on this one FYI.

So whats your take on me not reacting and switching my vote to you?

[Graeham]

Fluff is to be expected on day one, doubly so when we've been without a fresh game for so long. Claiming to not like fluff feels like a bit of a cop out.

I've a tentative positive read on...Bageloaf. His reaction to me pointing out the number of members on a scum team feels authentic to me, at least.

[Blood Fox]

Long day but please let’s not lynch listo, they are my partner in cult and I wann win.

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Ahem

*sad noise*
It’s just like so hard to post somthing day one.

Also I’d tell people about my day one reads but I have too much insider knowledge so I don’t think it’s fair.

[Marack]

Long day but please let’s not lynch listo, they are my partner in cult and I wann win.

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Ahem

*sad noise*
It’s just like so hard to post somthing day one.

Also I’d tell people about my day one reads but I have too much insider knowledge so I don’t think it’s fair.

Flood Box must be the vamp leader with talk like this and his avatar

[TimeskipPistol]

I really don't like the notion of not wanting to participate D1 due to not liking fluff. If everyone abstained D1, we'd never actually start the game.

Also, really don't agree with no-lynching. Instead of shooting our shot and maybe getting one of the four scum, we'll end up giving two cults a free night of recruitment. Is our chances of hitting scum better tomorrow? Yes. But we'll also risk allowing the scum to snowball. We can only get rid of one person every day. Scum can potentially remove at least 2 townies every night.

If you're town, you'll want to lynch someone. Get voting records going. Let us get voting coalitions and train derailment timings.

In conclusion:
Lynch the sheep.

[Kryllian]

I was running the scenarios through my head last night as I tried to fall asleep and I came to the conclusion it's virtually impossible for me to win as a townie.

Right now it's 14 town (including witches) / 2 Vamp / 2 wolf

Best case scenario:

D1 Lynch a Vamp/Wolf (22% chance of not hitting a townie)
N1 Vamp/Wolf each try to recruit and fail because they try each other or a witch (4% chance they both miss recruiting and it's unlikely they will kill until they have to or have a large team)

repeat 3 more times (D2 - 17% chance, D3 - 12.2% chance, D4 - 6% chance)

More likely scenario, Town whittles itself down though mislynches (78% chance D1, 65% chance d2, 50% chance d3) and Vamp/Wolf keep recruiting until only Witches are left. Then it becomes a game between the cults of who can night kill without hitting a witch until they get a majority. By Day 4 it's mathematically over for town that are still alive and their only hope at a win is to be recruited before they are mislynched.

Someone please r point out something I'm missing but with only only town lynch per day and no cop/vig kill vs two night recruits/kills the odds seem overwhelming to me.

[Xanjori]

There is also chances that the Vamps/wolves hit each other with attempted recruiting, then forcing them into NK the following night.

[SatsuBL]

I really don't like the notion of not wanting to participate D1 due to not liking fluff. If everyone abstained D1, we'd never actually start the game.

Not wanting to participate in fluff doesn't mean not wanting to participate in D1. I guess it is my fault too to let this fluff last for 2 days and not trying to cut this short. Some people seem to like this style of play a lot so I thought let them have fun for a while.

If you're town, you'll want to lynch someone. Get voting records going. Let us get voting coalitions and train derailment timings.

In conclusion:
Lynch the sheep.

Yeah I think it's time. I don't want to lynch Robozerim as much as I want to see his one scumbuddy derailing this train.

vote: Robozerim

[Loaf]

vote Robozerim

ALL ABOOOOOOOARD

[Marack]

Yeah I think it's time. I don't want to lynch Robozerim as much as I want to see his one scumbuddy derailing this train.

What about the people that just hop on for no reason