New date may not be til spring...

[orsraunia]

i'd say they probably know a date already for sometime now, they are just making sure everything is going fine.

I believe they want to launch as soon as possible, so they have multiple dates (e.g. Nov 24, Dec 1, Dec 8, etc.). If they see they can make it on Nov 24, they'll go for it. If not... you get where I am going with this. That's probably the reason why they haven't announced the date yet. They want to release as soon as possible, before holiday season, but they don't know the earliest date it will be releasable yet.

[MrLachyG]

I believe they want to launch as soon as possible, so they have multiple dates (e.g. Nov 24, Dec 1, Dec 8, etc.). If they see they can make it on Nov 24, they'll go for it. If not... you get where I am going with this. That's probably the reason why they haven't announced the date yet. They want to release as soon as possible, before holiday season, but they don't know the earliest date it will be releasable yet.

also they don't want to announce a date until they are 100% sure they will deliver it on that day. If they put forward a date and have to delay again then that is a bad look

[ClassicPeon]

Was the accidental "leak" from nvidia talked about?

They had an article exclaiming that you would be able to see ray tracing in shadowlands in november

[orsraunia]

Was the accidental "leak" from nvidia talked about?

They had an article exclaiming that you would be able to see ray tracing in shadowlands in november

and we can, in SL prepatch, since Oct. I don't think nvidia knows the release date, because bliz doesn't know it (for certain) either. If they were certain about the date, they'd had announced it. As simple as that. They haven't, because they are not sure. So, we can just speculate. When they announced the delay, my hunch was Nov 17, but right now logic says early Dec.

[ClassicPeon]

and we can, in SL prepatch... If they were certain about the date, they'd announce it. As simple as that. They haven't, because they are not sure. My hunch was Nov 17. But logic says early Dec.

Its pretty obvious they where talking about release as:
1. Prepatch was already out when the article broke(its only a few days ago)
2. They where specificly talking about shadowlands

They could have decided on November without having a specific date. What makes you think they would be obliged to announce the date if they had it?

Perhaps they had a 99% date but didnt want to reveal it in case it went awry.

[Thundering]

True or not, WELCOME TO WORLD OF CLOWNCRAFT (ow sorry meant retail!)

[ClassicPeon]

True or not, WELCOME TO WORLD OF CLOWNCRAFT (ow sorry meant retail!)

What does that have to do with anything in this thread?

[orsraunia]

Its pretty obvious they where talking about release as:
1. Prepatch was already out when the article broke(its only a few days ago)
2. They where specificly talking about shadowlands

They could have decided specificly on November without having a specific date. What makes you think they would be obliged to announce the date if they had it?

Perhaps they had a 99% date but didnt want to reveal it in case it went awry.

What about if they had/have a 97% date, a 98% date, a 99% date and a 100% date? For example, 97% for Nov 24, 98% for Dec 1, 99% for Dec 8 and 100% for "before Dec 31 2020". How do you announce this?

In my opinion, they want to release as soon as possible, but they don't know which is the earliest date it will be releasable. So, they let time pass and they'll give us a date when they are certain.

About the other stuff you mention, I've seen similar situations when stores (even Steam) were mentioning release dates for games that hadn't had their release date officially announced and they were proven wrong in the end. Some times it's an estimate, sometimes rumors or whatever. All I know is to not take such things seriously. After all, does it make sense to you Nvidia having credible info that SL will release in Nov? It doesn't to me.

[ClassicPeon]

What about if they had/have a 97% date, a 98% date, a 99% date and a 100% date? For example, 97% for Nov 24, 98% for Dec 1, 99% for Dec 8 and 100% for "before Dec 31 2020". How do you announce this?

In my opinion, they want to release as soon as possible, but they don't know which is the earliest date it will be releasable. So, they let time pass and they'll give us a date when they are certain.

About the other stuff you mention, I've seen similar situations when stores (even Steam) were mentioning release dates for games that hadn't had their release date officially announced and they were proven wrong in the end. Some times it's an estimate, sometimes rumors or whatever. All I know is to not take such things seriously. After all, does it make sense to you Nvidia having credible info that SL will release in Nov? It doesn't to me.

You cant really have a 97, 98 and 99% date. That sums up to well above 100%.

I also think they want to release as soon as possible. I also know that nvidia could simply be guessing or releasing an older possible release date they got, but from my memory this is not the way nvidia usually operates.

I'm thinking they porobably coordinated driver updates with wows expansion release. Thats why i'm not so sure this is just a random date they chose.

[whoisqnx]

Nvidia might simply not care about the Pre-Patch having rey tracing. Rey-tracing can be a tool for advertising the new expansion, part of the marketing so the November they mentioned can mean late November for Shadowlands. Who knows really, my bet is still on late Nov, early Dec.

[baskev]

You are wrong on both counts. They lose money with pre-orders that are refunded. Also, their production costs continue to go up each day they don't release it. ANd they absolutely did give a new launch time as he outright stated it would be "later in 2020" the day they delayed it. That means going to 2021 is a second delay.

WHen it comes to game releases, Blizzard uses calendar year. THey said it would be out in 2020, therefore it is scheduled to be out before December 31st.

I know. I outright stated that their are no rules to the raid. But they said the game would be out later in 2020. So, Blizzard does not want a 2nd delay and will avoid it at all costs.

They don't matter at all. There is no "might".



I am not being extreme. I am calling it like it is and pointing out fallacies.

My point is this:

-The other games DO NOT MATTER
-They will not delay it a second time. That puts their jobs on the line with management as management will begin to question their competence.
-It does not matter what they have done with other games. This is one of their biggest cash cows and they are not going to risk losing any more money than they already have.
-They have released buggy expansions before. It has not hurt them in any significant way.
-They said 2020. That is what it is going to be.

Its not about right or wrong. Its a guess/opinion. And you are not in blizzards fianice department, neither am i. So we both can not know what its most logic/less loss.

And yes they use calendar year, but if they need a excuse ( and modern day blizzard will sadly use low tactics) they can say fiscal year. But yeah, if you read what i wrote...i said they could launch it late december.

And again, its not a second delay if they launch it late december. And yes maybe they will not risk a 2nd delay, maybe they will. Thats the guess/opinion part.

And again it might matter, you might not feel like it. But it might matter. Do you work at blizzard. Are you their CEO? nope. So your does not matter at all does not matter. Because you do not know for 100% sure that it does not matter. Ergo it might matter.

No, you are being extreme. You talk with a lot of emotion. Go after me instead of my idea's. Not read my idea's. But just 1 word out of the sentence and go crazy on it. Like my words : might, opinion, guess do not even hit you.
Its like me saying: i like blond women. For reasons x,y,z.
You are trying to say: you do not like blond women towards me.

Its my opinion live with it.


- Do = a 100%. i never say they DO matter. I say they CAN matter. i know my english is bad but get a dictionary and look up the words DO and CAN.
- A delay or double cancel has happend before. And its normal in game industry.
- Yes, the risk is higher. But like i pointed out. They have lost a lot of us. And every launch people come back. And i said: people are more likely to stay for a well made expansion than a broken one. Lets use random numbers. 5 million are at launch. 3 leave because its crap. They made 5milx60 bucks + 2 million monthly subscibers.
Option 4,5 million join, they like it and only 1 million leave. But the rest stay because its better and less buggy. so they have 1,5 mill people more playing it.
- agian its a guess/opinion and reason of this thread. so yeah 2020 is 95% sure. But this thread is about a opinon/guess.

[rhorle]

You cant really have a 97, 98 and 99% date. That sums up to well above 100%.

You don't need to add each one together to reach 100%. They are talking about confidence in meeting a new release date. So Blizzard says we will 100% release before December 31st. 99% release on December 8th, 97% release of November 24th etc. Blizzard could be doing it like that with internal goals/metrics.

[ClassicPeon]

You don't need to add each one together to reach 100%. They are talking about confidence in meeting a new release date. So Blizzard says we will 100% release before December 31st. 99% release on December 8th, 97% release of November 24th etc. Blizzard could be doing it like that with internal goals/metrics.

Ah that makes sense. Sort of. I mean they COULD do it like that but i very much doubt it. i have never been in a software firm that doesnt set specific target dates internally.

[Luciferstwin]

i give 99% it's exactly 6 month from brightwing transmog scam

This kid..... You must be new to wow.... They have had these 6 months promos for years.....

[arkanon]

This kid..... You must be new to wow.... They have had these 6 months promos for years.....

And for years they have been launched 6 months apart. This one released a little over 3 months after the last. Do you find that timing to be interesting at all? Just coincidence?

[rhorle]

And for years they have been launched 6 months apart. This one released a little over 3 months after the last. Do you find that timing to be interesting at all? Just coincidence?

Not because it is somehow a scam to lock players in for a longer delay. They are giving out a $20 valued item and missing out on new multi-month subscribers because anyone who bought the last promotion gets the item without a new purchase. So the normal target audience for the 6-month subscription is being missed because they are still on the last promotion.

This one also lasts to 12/13/20 instead of the typical 30 days. It is interesting but for none of the conspiracy/scam reasons people keep stating. It is likely a reset to the 6-month schedule for the new expansion but they didn't delay it when the expansion was in my opinion.

[Unholyground]

There is evidence pointing to end of November, it will be before xmas as this is a corporation that has a demand to meet for the investors and missing that timeline would not be good.

[crazyswayzee]

Lol no one is at holiday because of the rona

[Jaewalk]

Another week with no update... i think at this point we can safely say it aint releasing in November.... December is still possible but my optimism is starting to wane.

[arkanon]

Another week with no update... i think at this point we can safely say it aint releasing in November.... December is still possible but my optimism is starting to wane.

I still believe the announcement will be at the same time as the announcement for the pre-release events, which if im not mistaken is 3 weeks worth of "content". As such, I think we can safely assume there will be at least 4 weeks lead-time between announcement and actual launch day. Shit, I might be completely wrong and they might throw the event out, give us a few weeks of something to do, then announce the launch is another XYZ weeks away, its all guess work at this point. I do stand by my comment though, I think that is definitely the most likely scenario - "event goes live X date, expansion launches on X+3/4 weeks".