Georgia Senate Runoff Election Jan. 5

[beanman12345]

if it does end up split, which i don't think it will, but possible i'd rather ossoff get it than warnock, because ossoff would be safe for 6 years, warnock only 2. but it looks like warnock is getting more votes.

[Shadowferal]

From NY Times;
Mail-in ballots could not be counted before the polls closed, even if they arrived before election day. But many ballots have already been processed, meaning envelope signatures and addresses have been verified, though the tallying of the votes themselves only began Tuesday night.
Of course, it is hard to say how long it will take for all of the mail-in ballots to be counted.

[cubby]

It's tightening mainly because a crapton of red counties reported.

I'm seeing that too. They are saying 65%-ish reporting, but there are only a few counties still gray. Are they block reporting?

- - - Updated - - -

From NY Times;
Mail-in ballots could not be counted before the polls closed, even if they arrived before election day. But many ballots have already been processed, meaning envelope signatures and addresses have been verified, though the tallying of the votes themselves only began Tuesday night.
Of course, it is hard to say how long it will take for all of the mail-in ballots to be counted.

So it's the same as in Nov - GA is a Red Mirage state, assuming mail-in ballots skew the same way they did in Nov.

[PhaelixWW]

As of a few minutes ago, there were 41 vote dumps listed on the NYTimes page. That's 82 total comparisons between both Senate seat runoffs.

In only 11 comparisons did the Democrat candidate perform worse than expected, while the remaining 71 comparisons were equal or favorable for the Democrat candidate.

[cubby]

Ok - I'm using CNN's count, and they are showing counties reporting, but also their percentages counted. Lot's of heavily blue states with under 50% reported.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/re...s_election_crm
https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/re...s_election_crm

[Valdhammer]

Have the urban areas reported fully yet?

[Underverse]

Have the urban areas reported fully yet?

Nope lots in Atlanta

[cubby]

As of a few minutes ago, there were 41 vote dumps listed on the NYTimes page. That's 82 total comparisons between both Senate seat runoffs.

In only 11 comparisons did the Democrat candidate perform worse than expected, while the remaining 71 comparisons were equal or favorable for the Democrat candidate.

You're scaring me.

[Edge-]

Man, I'm trying to figure out what the fuck is causing this, but the numbers are...odd? Not in a like, "FRAUD!" way, but just...odd.

One might imagine that the numbers for both races are functionally identical, folks are voting for one party or the other.

But interestingly...they're not.

Perdue enjoys a +10K vote advantage over Loeffler, and Warnock enjoys a +10K vote advantage over Ossoff (roughly). And I'm trying to figure out exactly what the cause of it is...I doubt folks are splitting their votes.

Some folks only voting for one election not realizing they can vote for both?
Is race playing a role with the Black community breaking more for Warnock over Ossoff somehow?
Is sex playing a role with people voting for Perdue over Loeffler somehow?

I'm all kinds of confused, just been watching those numbers hold somewhat steady (the +10K splits) for a while now.

[beanman12345]

I'm seeing that too. They are saying 65%-ish reporting, but there are only a few counties still gray. Are they block reporting?

- - - Updated - - -



So it's the same as in Nov - GA is a Red Mirage state, assuming mail-in ballots skew the same way they did in Nov.

there was what 800k mail in's? they had to be postmarked today but can arrive by friday. yeah red mirage state sounds right.

[PhaelixWW]

So it's the same as in Nov - GA is a Red Mirage state, assuming mail-in ballots skew the same way they did in Nov.

They're definitely processing the mail-in ballots faster, as well.

[Thepersona]

Looks like Perdue just pulled ahead...

Back to being behind it seems. Perdue is underperforming, even in the heavy republican areas.

[cubby]

The counts just flipped to GOP ahead by narrow margins. Lots to go still.

[Belize]

Back to being behind it seems. Perdue is underperforming, even in the heavy republican areas.

Both GOP are underperforming when compared to expected results based on Nov 3rd.

The real question is are they underperforming enough, Purdue technically beat Ossof in November.

[Shadowferal]

The race now leans toward the Democrats. There's a long way to go and it's close, but they have done better than they need across all vote methods and in all regions.
Nate Cohn

[PhaelixWW]

Looks like Perdue just pulled ahead...

You guys really, really, really shouldn't just look at the total numbers.

It's far more instructive to look at how the numbers compare to what was expected of those vote types / areas. Those comparisons are overwhelmingly favoring the Democrat candidates, though only by relatively slight margins each.

That's an extremely good (and consistent) sign.

[Thepersona]

The counts just flipped to GOP ahead by narrow margins. Lots to go still.

Calm your feels, almost all of Atlanta is left to count.

[cubby]

Man, I'm trying to figure out what the fuck is causing this, but the numbers are...odd? Not in a like, "FRAUD!" way, but just...odd.

One might imagine that the numbers for both races are functionally identical, folks are voting for one party or the other.

But interestingly...they're not.

Perdue enjoys a +10K vote advantage over Loeffler, and Warnock enjoys a +10K vote advantage over Ossoff (roughly). And I'm trying to figure out exactly what the cause of it is...I doubt folks are splitting their votes.

Some folks only voting for one election not realizing they can vote for both?
Is race playing a role with the Black community breaking more for Warnock over Ossoff somehow?
Is sex playing a role with people voting for Perdue over Loeffler somehow?

I'm all kinds of confused, just been watching those numbers hold somewhat steady (the +10K splits) for a while now.

I was looking at those splits as well. I can't imagine with the polarity going on right now that people are choosing because of sex or race...even though those are both entirely possible. I'm wondering if it's the "not realizing they can vote for both" factor.

[Thepersona]

You guys really, really, really shouldn't just look at the total numbers.

It's far more instructive to look at how the numbers compare to what was expected of those vote types / areas. Those comparisons are overwhelmingly favoring the Democrat candidates, though only by relatively slight margins each.

That's an extremely good (and consistent) sign.

Also this.

[Machismo]

As a libertarian with no dog in the Georgia races... tonight is a great night.

No matter who wins, I get to sleep like a baby knowing that Trump's fascist ass has already lost.