Mafia 126 - Basically Basic

[Crackleslap]

Ok. Here we go. Last night I investigated CLARINET - the result came back, OTHER. Meaning they're not mafia, most likely town and a possibility of being the SK.

Why did I investigate Clarinet last night? Well besides my own suspicions of them, multiple people said they were a possible target for today's lynch, so I obviously investigated them to see what kind of day we were going to have. It was clear to me at that point they weren't going to get night killed either. So it felt like a safe investigate.

Why did I not reveal my results straight away? Because I wanted to see how people still reacted around Clarinet. See who thought they were town/mafia etc. + other peoples reads in general. Whilst the information of people still pushing Clarinet lynch today won't necessarily tell me they're scum, but something else may have told me someone else might also be town. I believe @Blood Fox is also probable town because of the last day phase.

Listo and crackle attacking calarinet for having opinions is SUS as fuck just making sure everyone is aware of that.











Go the fuck off, I love opinionated townies. This is how we do it. This is mafia so while you really dont know shit you have to pretend that you do.

This post came at a time both myself and Listo we're attacking Clarinet for the "I KNOW" behaviour (which wasn't unwarranted), but I can assess that a scum Blood Fox could've easily joined in on this and pushed a mislynch on Clarinet. So this isn't obviously irrefutable evidence of a town player, it just seems likely to me that I can almost eliminate Blood Fox being mafia. As it would've been quite easy for him to pull off a mislynch there, and would expected him to have done so if he was scum. Nothing's for certain though.

Now I also want to look at a Cereal post for shits n giggles.

It wasn't even the appearance out of nowhere. I'm just not sure how often someone forget to "unvote" especially someone who has played as long as he has.



My ones leaning town:

Dupti: He seems to be analyzing everything that people are saying over multiple posts and it just feels like town-like behavior.
Graeham: His playstyle seems to be different this game from the last. Could easily be faked, but it just sees like he is invested in town's survival
Crackle: Has been defending the trains on Val and Marack. With both of them seeming like VTs, it leads me to believe you are trying to prevent mis-lynches.

Ones leaning scum:

Listo: Doing the same thing as last game. Will come in and post occasionally, but then disappear for an extended period of time. I'm also pretty sure he said somewhere, during previous game, that he used the U.S. election as an excuse to why he wasn't posting much as scum.
Xanjori: The unvote thing just didn't sit right with me. Especially now more since it was 1 vote away from lynch and he is a more experienced player. Seems like a play to say "oh I did vote but forgot unvote"
Satsu: I have no actual reason for this other than a gut-feeling. He seems to be engaging a lot with posting instead of suiciding like in last game when he was a VT. But I believe it was Clarinet who had said he does act like a detective in other games so I could be wrong.

Suspicions:

Clarinet: If it's believed that the SK targeted Firebert to throw suspicions on me, he was the first person to bring it up. Not saying this means anything, as he could have just noticed it, but something that is in the back of my mind.
Bwonsamdi: Still not posting much of substance, but she is actually answering questions. I'm just not sure if that is because she feels more comfortable or is having a team assist her.

Most everyone else I don't have a read on or they have not posted anywhere near enough for me to form an opinion, which I hopefully will over the course of this day. It's tough to really get a full read with how early it is and how little some people have actually voted, especially with people "not" voting. I'm also trying not to let everyone's opinions influence mine before I can come to one on my own and use theirs as supporting thoughts to mine.

A lot of that could be just my head-canon, too, but that is where I am leaning currently.

Now this isn't anything for certain at all. But I said this earlier, I find it unlikely that a scum reads list wouldn't mention any of their teammates at all. So with that thought process, I believe there is at least a scum between Graeham, Satsu, Listo, Bwonsamdi and Dupti. Now, with the current stance of things in the thread at the moment, I see it as incredibly unlikely that Graeham is mafia, though a real possibility of Serial Killer. IF Graeham is in fact Serial Killer - I don't believe Dupti to be mafia either then.

So that leaves Listo, Bwonsamdi and Satsu. Listo seems to me - playing pretty typically, which is usually a town tell for him. But i'm gonna have to do more rereading to formulate a proper read.

The same can be said for Bwonsamdi, however recently they have been flip flopping votes like crazy. Voted Blood Fox for inactivity and then changed their vote to Satsu for the same reason before Blood Fox even commented or responded to that vote. Which looks a little suspicious to me.

Satsu is a difficult one for me, D1/D2 i kinda felt like he was town, but im getting less confident about that as the game goes on.

Good job on catching scum Crackle. I feel angry about myself, I had a feeling there was something about Cereal. There were minor scum-tells with them. I think Firebert was on a right track with their reasoning on a vote. I didn't think they reached critical mass with their scum play to say OK this is scum. Maybe if I joined you we could get something going and you wouldn't have to claim

On Clarinet. I played with them before. Last time in game 123. We both got to final 4 as town. I remember that game well, and how they played. It was the same playstyle as he does now. He was scumread for it all game and got mislynched in the end. If you scumread him for his reads and interactions then fine, but if you think they are scum because of phrasing like "player x is town. I know it!" than this is not the case. We already went through this. I don't know how he plays as scum, don't remember if he ever rolled scum. Maybe he is super consistent regardless of alignment.

On Dupti. Not a big deal, maybe even stupid idea. Last game I had "something is off about Dupti" fell. Didn't know what until I realized. In previous games I've known Dupti as someone that makes those wallposts. And last game he didn't. So I asked myself could it be a tell or not. Then game ends he was scum and I check vampire QT. And what I see, wallpost after wallpost from Dupti. So yeah he did them. They were just not in game thread, they were in his scumchat. So this game I tried to see if that is some sort of a pattern. Day1 and no wallposts. I think well I guess I shouldn't expect him to do wallpost on day1 fluff. Day2 starts slow but then he activates. Good job Dupti, you got yourself a slightly ridiculous town point from me. Moar wallposts, like those from vampire chat plz.

Also happy to have Robo posting. I think he is a helpful and overall friendly player. I almost always town read him unless I can point him as scum from claims or night action results (whitch is a terrible read I know).

I am kind of suspicious of Bagel and Lora for Val votes. I am just not sure is scum would want to start that train or just jump on it.
Come on, Val and Marack are so unlikely to be mafia. Maybe SK I guess, but with so many players still in a game odds for it to be good lynch are low.

Oh, and first moment town gets stuck just lynch Bwonsamdi. I don't know who they are, but I know who they certainly aren't : usefull town. Sorry Bwon no offense.

He however has this comment, which is incredibly not ordinary. No one else had brought this up, and after my result seems to be absolutely correct. So Satsu has absolutely read Clarinet perfectly. This read felt genuine to me. So i'm not sure where to put him at the moment. Quite low participation as well.

Thanks Greaham. So to conclude. Firebert thinks Bwonsamdi is most scummy but not by much. Clairnet thinks they are all fishy but Marack less than other two. And you think Marack is scummy but would keep other two for now. I don't see if I start a train here it will go anywhere. If one would appear I can join anytime.

If you are set on Val/Crackle I can help you get a lynch off, but there is probally still time to reconsider. Imo if Crackle is town they will be helpful later on. Or you can push Crackle if you want even more claims from d1.

He also voiced his opinion that he disliked the Val/Crackle trains (good decision) and wanted to start else where, (Listo, Marack or Bwonsamdi). So this seems a little towny to me, and has also repeatedly voiced the dislike of a Val push. He has voiced some fleshed out ideas of possible reasons for night actions and eliminated some people as certain roles, but besides one comment about Lora and Bage for voting Val and saying fucking YOLO on a Bwonsamdi lynch if town gets stuck he hasn't really committed that much to an idea. So it could be a possible scum lurking in the shadows.

Blood Fox, for suddenly coming back after I mentioned him. Seemed a liiiittle bit like he was lurking. Maybe a SK, but not 100% sure. Could be a cop/doc too

Val said he wanted to eat someone (I think Marack) like a pretzel, and didn't say much after it. So, another potential SK. If he is town, that's funny as hell

I have no idea where Listro went, but I think he's town because he seems to be ok with most things on here. Probably in Kpop land

Graeham too. He's drawing and arguing with Marack. I think Marack is also a town, due to his 'flail'

RCA and Clarinet I'm not sure. You're definatly town though lol

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Aaand there's the duck

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(Sorry for be shit af with my explanations/reasons, I'm not good at writing detailed paragraphs )

I also asked Bwonsamdi for some reads before my claim, and there's quite a few people on there that are not mafia or that I perceive to not be mafia. The only constant is the desire to lynch Blood Fox for "suddenly reappearing" or not being present. So tbh it's not looking great.

All in all, the idea that "Cereal probably included one of his teammates" in a reads list is quite flawed, but it's something I've thought about.

I'm yet to reread Dupti and Firebert so I'll probably do that now for some further insights.

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Also going to point out @Marack and @Robozerim had some interest in pursuing a @Clarinet lynch. So whilst it's a bit hypocritical of me to say, that could be something to look at. Dupti also had some interest in Clarinet as well, and I've felt iffy about them for most of the game. If Graeham's the SK, Dupti is probably town, if he isn't, I think there's a reasonable chance Dupti is another dead scum. Does dupti attempt to bus his own teammate Cereal for town cred though? (Referencing his point about Cereal's lack of pursuing content)

[LemonDemonGirl]

I... I changed my mind about Blood Fox. I'd say we'll have more luck with Virothe, RCA or Clarinet. Clarinet even more if they're kind of 'neutral' I guess?

Lynch me if you want. If I'm still a useless person than so be it. Maybe being useless will just end up being my playstyle, who knows?

Certainly not me

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Also, I probably shouldn't be posting when I'm hungry. I think it makes me 50% more angrier lol

[Crackleslap]

@Bwonsamdi the Dead I just revealed that Clarinet is not mafia lol. Still a chance at SK, but that chance is low.

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Also isn't your vote still on Satsu?

[listo95]

Guess I can leave Clarient alone now thanks to Crackle! Now to do some adjustments for my vote analysis!

9 - Val (Lora, Crackleslap, Bwomsamdi, Dupti, Cereal, Val, Clarinet, SatsuBL, Graeham)

2 - Marack (RCA, Bageloaf)

1 - Catta (Xanjori)

1 - Xanjori (Catta)

1 - Bageloaf (Blood Fox)

1 - CerealLord (Firebert)

1 - SatsuBL (Marack)
_____________________
9 - Cereal (Bageloaf, Virothe, Robo, Dupti, Clarinet, Bwonsamdi, Crackleslap, Lora, Cereal)

2 - Clarinet (Listo, Marack)

1 - Virothe (Val)

1 - Lora (RCA)

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Hmm looking at votes I would have to say my next biggest suspect would be Satsu. Lora, Crackle, and Bwon are on 2 completely different sides of the trains when it comes to the 2 days so those kind of cancel each other out. I think what I'm gonna do is go to sleep now and after work tomorrow try to take a quick glance through the thread again to see if I see anything that sticks out to me in posts.

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But honestly the biggest issue is the damn SK -.- I HATE THE LOSS OF INFO!

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Also just thought I'd mention this before its forgotten, there is a GF in the game that is immune to cop so I would assume they would appear as the other result.

[Crackleslap]

@listo95 Fair point, I had in fact forgotten about the GF immune. :/

[listo95]

@listo95 Fair point, I had in fact forgotten about the GF immune. :/

Yeah like they still could be mafia, but we ignore them until the very end of the game if they are alive and we have just the GF left to find.

[Blood Fox]

I’m going to bed and I gotta read this last page because it’s juicy but before I sleep I have to do this forgive me.

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snip.

How’s this lynch working out for ya?

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Also could people stop trying to say I’m town like I try really hard to to come off as town

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^^^
My point exact, divert and distort. All I did was set my set up for a SK kill you confuse the shit out of everyone since you deem me a cryptic mafia. Telling you veteran players anyone bringing attention to me is trying to confuse the rest of the lot, therefore luckily scum.

“ I am scum”

I’m really really getting tired of people hiding soft claims in their posts. This is ridiculous

[Clarinet]

That's right. Cslap, it's exactly for that comment that I think Satsu is not mafia. The points are very detailed and there's no shading whatsoever, Satsu seemed to have good intention. He's town or SK

I think SK will act very townie and will seem like the rest of us.

You also mentioned Grae killing a doc, possible Dupti and taking its role. I honestly don't see Grae as SK and even if he were, don't think he would target Dupti that liked him.

All I've noticed from Grae posts is that you can accuse him of most things but not being evil. I'm curious to see how Grae acts in mafia mode.

Grae is either the doc or pretending to be the doc. I think he's the real deal.

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why I think dupti was town - when I was in a 'woe is me' state, he shook me back to reality. 'Stop with this nonsense' that's more or less what he told me when I wanted to be sacrificed D3.

if we are to assume, I would say rather Bertie as mafia than dupti, but I honestly think SK didn't kill any mafia.

[Graeham]

@Crackleslap

I'm not the serial killer. This is also not the first time I've claimed my role as a TPR without necessarily needing to do so. I like to make things happen and nothing was happening at the time. It forced people to weigh in on the subject. Well, most people at any rate.

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Unvote
Vote: Satsu

Very quiet and his last post was warning people to be careful about votes in regards to Cereal being ready for a lynch.

[RCA]

Lol still pushing the lynch on me and using mental gymnastics to justify. I already told the rest of the VT how to approach me. If it goes that route my lynch is beneficial to town when they’ll find my pockets empty, as everything I said was truth. And if I get SK’ed I am announcing that I’m town, so y’all not in a dizzy trying to peg me as something I’m not.

As for gaps in posting, well gameplay and irl has me vastly stretched.

[SatsuBL]

Welp. I happened to refresh and suddenly we're in day time!

Damnit, I wish we knew dupti's role. Curious why Xanjori died. Results of Cereal's read list?

Only way to get cannibal kill role is if the psyhic claims at some point and says they ended up with those players in their thred. If so they were VT if not they could be anything (even still vt).

To me Dupti kill is someone trying to remove a player that will be difficult to lynch. Dupti is a very good player that won't go down easily.

Xanjori kill is weird to me not only beacuse why Xanjori, but why not just go for Cop. Seems like a more simple and effective strategy. They can take cop out in 2 nights guaranteed. Maybe even right away, but doctor should always protect TPR or they might have hard time claiming later on after they let TPR die. This looks like some more advanced scum tactic. So more likely to be experienced scum team. Sadly this puts noob mafia : Xanjori, Bwonsamdi, Cereal, RCA steamrolling town aside. Xanjori because of Catta kill, he is not a new.

Hmm looking at both right next to each other the only people I would say look scummy purely from a voting perspective would be Clarinet, Satsu, possibly Graeham and maybe Blood.

From those I don't feel like Graeham is scum, Blood is chaos incarnate so who knows with him, looking back at Satsu's posts I get the feeling he is town, with Clarient I still don't like how they try to state things as fact but Satsu did state that is how they play town so...

Someone said that scum wouldn't miss a hammer on Val. but is that the case? I think both options: lynching Val and no-lynch are good for scum. If he is lynched player count is reduced but there is a chance of a ghost. If he isn't there is no ghost and Val is left as a distraction. I don't see if one option is clearly better and scum would want to go that way so they probally didn't care about Val train at all. Usualy on day 1 when there are two competing trains there will be 2 scum on one train, one on the other and one without a vote or as a single vote on someone. For me if there was another mafia on Val there could be one before Cereal vote. As a new player Cereal might want to join a scumbuddy on a train, and the other scum might not want to jump off train.

it's almost like he's not the doctor

He is a VT and he made lurkers come out and talk, and remaining inactive players are new so he doesn't want to lynch them. He doesn't know where to go so he wants to soak a nightkill.

I'm guessing that's just kindness to the newbie, but it's D3 and all bets should be off now. Will be interesting to see if the pattern continues and RCA lives to lylo.

I'm curious to hear Satsu's thoughts.

My reads right now are

Town/don't lynch: Crackle , Val, Greaham, Clarinet, Robo. Robo weakest read.
Uncertain: Bloodfox/Lora/Virothe. Not sure for now, need to keep an eye on. Scum likes to hide in uncertain category.
Scum/ can lynch: Bageloaf (voting patterns), Listo (my own prejudice maybe, scum Listo got me many times so I could be biased), Marack (slightly tunneled on SK Marack idea, atm he would stand really well as an SK.), Bwonsamdi/RCA (policy lynches, can as well be scum).

Could switch Bageloaf/Lora, don't think they are both mafia though.

If you want more specific read on someone in particular ask me.

Unvote

Vote Satsu

Where the f**k is he lol

Started my birthday a day earlier and it is still going. Hard to post in a state I am right now, took me 1.5 hour to make this one

vote: Bageloaf

[RCA]

Also for the record, I circle jerk with no one.

[Loaf]

Another question, has anyone suspected Graeham of being the SkK before his doctor claim? (Besides probably Marack).

I haven't said sk specifically but I am and still saying his doc claim is bs

[Graeham]

I haven't said sk specifically but I am and still saying his doc claim is bs

I'm telling the truth.

[Loaf]

I'm telling the truth.

and I'm saying it's bs

[Graeham]

and I'm saying it's bs

It's not.

Unvote
Vote: Bageloaf

I reckon there's a good chance that Bagel is scum.

[Clarinet]

Bagel calling Grae's BS is triggering

Bagel, just let him be! If you're the real doc, you should play along and not let mafia know whose the real doc

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Bagel being so against Grae means 2 things: a counterclaim or some persistent mafian [term borrowed from Val]

[Loaf]

lol, why would I be scum? It'd be dumb for the sk to try and claim the doc's role if they ate him as that'd just cause the mafia to want to kill him just as it's dumb for the doc to claim for no reason. It's just mafia trying to get a 2 for 1 deal on the cop and doc by trying to get the real doc to counter claim and at this point, I'm saying fuck it. I am the real doc.

[Clarinet]

*who's the real

I'm not sure what Bagel is doing but as a scum, it would be too much of a bold move and he's basically the only one against Grae's claim

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Ok, not 1, but 2 sexy docs: Bagel and Grae

we are indeed very lucky to have them

[Graeham]

I am the real doc.

No you're not.

Thank you for ensuring that my gamble paid off, though! I know such tasty bait would be difficult for scum to resist.

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So, there's three possibilities for Bagel:

- He's the serial killer. I think this is the least likely possibility given his claim.
- He's nothing more than a VT and has convinced himself that I'm lying so he's counterclaiming me in the hope that I'll flip scum. This is foolish, though, if so - because I'm not lying about my claim and it'll just result in him being lynched tomorrow which essentially wastes two lynches in a row.
- He's scum. As he himself said, a one for one trade between a goon and the doctor is a pretty sweet deal. It prevents any WIFOM as well since Crackleslap and myself are the two major targets to protect at night though depending on how I opted to use my actions on N1 and N2, scum cannot be certain which is going to be protected.