Dragonflight Alpha/Beta General Discussion

[Nymrohd]

Strong arguments? No. But after last few comments (season 3 will start during summer and season 4 will have shorter runtime) I consider this a possibility.

Of course Alpha would have to be shorter. But this expansion is very simple, without new progression system or new type of content. Still I would bet on 2023 release, I just say I'm not that sure. Now I'm almost sure it isn't planned for date later than March though.

If we have S4 start in July-August and last about 4 months, given we've been told (I think?) the pre-patch will be fairly short (two weeks?) as release on the first or second week of December is not impossible, though it would probably mean no raids for a month.

[Kaesebrezen]

Is there any argument that really makes a 2022 release look plausible? There are so many counter-arguments to a 2022 release, that's why I am asking what the strong 2022-launch-argument is.

We have 6 months this year left, alpha hasn't started yet, pre-order isn't up yet, WotLK Classic coming later (most likely in November) this year, Diablo Immortal launching this week (aka they have two big releases this year already), season 3 still has several months left and season 4 still will last 3-4 months - so what's the argument that counters all of these points and still makes a 2022 release a possibility?

There is no strong argument for it, but there is also no argument against it, as it's still a possibility.

Season length is anywhere from 6 to 8 months. Shorter season 4 could be anywhere from 3 to 7 months, depending on what a normal season length is.
Shortest expansion testing lasted 5 months from alpha release to launch. Longest expansion testing went for 9 months (but with christmas holiday shutting down servers).

For all it matters, if you the take the shortest possible season length and testing period, you could even end up with a late november release.

[Skildar]

I'm not expecting season 4 to be this short. I would definitely enjoy it being short though.

But they've recently communicated on the fact that they feel that a good season should last between 6 to 8 months so we can expect season 4 to last at least 6 months.

[huth]

If we have S4 start in July-August and last about 4 months, given we've been told (I think?) the pre-patch will be fairly short (two weeks?) as release on the first or second week of December is not impossible, though it would probably mean no raids for a month.

I find S4 in August-September more likely. Otherwise, S3 would be below their preferred length, and that's still a regular season.

- - - Updated - - -

I'm not expecting season 4 to be this short. I would definitely enjoy it being short though.

But they've recently communicated on the fact that they feel that a good season should last between 6 to 8 months so we can expect season 4 to last at least 6 months.

More importantly, S3 is unlikely to be shorter than 6.

[Nyel]

There is no strong argument for it, but there is also no argument against it, as it's still a possibility.

Season length is anywhere from 6 to 8 months. Shorter season 4 could be anywhere from 3 to 7 months, depending on what a normal season length is.
Shortest expansion testing lasted 5 months from alpha release to launch. Longest expansion testing went for 9 months (but with christmas holiday shutting down servers).

For all it matters, if you the take the shortest possible season length and testing period, you could even end up with a late november release.

Which still leaves the WotLK Classic argument as both would launch within 4 weeks (and given that WotLK celebrates its 14th anniversary in November I am pretty sure it'll win against a DF November release date).

Sure, lining up the shorest amount of time for a) Alpha, b) season duration and c) pre-patch we might land in very late 2022, but that's a lot of factors that have to align to make that happen.

[Nymrohd]

They also did nerf S3 raids savagely. Still I do think the argument about it lasting at least 6 months is valid which would mean S4 would start on the first reset of September. Which is still technically Summer.

[huth]

Sure, lining up the shorest amount of time for a) Alpha, b) season duration and c) pre-patch we might land in very late 2022, but that's a lot of factors that have to align to make that happen.

Not even then. S3 started on March 1st. Even a 6 month S3 would already put us at the beginning of September, which wouldn't even give us 3 months for S4.

People just keep getting their dates wrong and deluding themself that a 2022 release is even remotely possible.

[Revamp Man]

2022 release ain't happening but I'm personally fine with that
S4 will be shorter but that can mean anywhere between 1-5 months if the average is 6-8 though any less than 3 definitely won't happen. It also won't hit for at least another month.
Alpha testing length won't matter in terms of "there's not a lot of new systems" because even WoD lasted about 6-7 months if I recall and they had garrisons?

You get a slime cat for all 3 fated raids which requires 3 weeks
You have a quest for gear tokens which is also a multi week thing
New dungeon pool and thus new gear
New pvp season


Let's say testing starts tomorrow and it only lasts 5 months because idk the devs are magic now.
That's places us in November when it ends and then you gotta remember testing ends before preoatch launches then prepatch will be no less than 3 weeks so ppl don't miss out.

So in order for 2022 to happen we have to believe the devs are amazing and that they are holding pre-orders back because....suspense??

[rhorle]

We have 6 months this year left, alpha hasn't started yet, pre-order isn't up yet, WotLK Classic coming later (most likely in November) this year, Diablo Immortal launching this week (aka they have two big releases this year already), season 3 still has several months left and season 4 still will last 3-4 months - so what's the argument that counters all of these points and still makes a 2022 release a possibility?

If they are encrypting a lot of things now then the story/leveling won't need public testing. Without complex systems, the "borrowed power" there isn't that much that needs testing. Testing talents and the things that need to be tested could happen relatively quickly if Blizzard wants. Relatively is the key word though since they've dragged their heels on 9.2.5 even though it was not feature heavy.

Season 4 can end any time and Season 3 is likely ending in a few a weeks.

- - - Updated - - -

That's places us in November when it ends and then you gotta remember testing ends before preoatch launches then prepatch will be no less than 3 weeks so ppl don't miss out.

I forget what expansion it was but I remember them still actively testing on beta while releasing the prepatch as an "earlier build".

[Nymrohd]

If they are encrypting a lot of things now then the story/leveling won't need public testing. Without complex systems, the "borrowed power" there isn't that much that needs testing. Testing talents and the things that need to be tested could happen relatively quickly if Blizzard wants. Relatively is the key word though since they've dragged their heels on 9.2.5 even though it was not feature heavy.

Season 4 can end any time and Season 3 is likely ending in a few a weeks.

It's not even three months yet for S3

[Kaesebrezen]

Not even then. S3 started on March 1st. Even a 6 month S3 would already put us at the beginning of September, which wouldn't even give us 3 months for S4.

People just keep getting their dates wrong and deluding themself that a 2022 release is even remotely possible.

If you go by history, excluding the usual final tier, then pretty much all raid tiers lasted 4.5 to 5.5 months since well, Mists of Pandaria, the only exclusion ever was Eternal Place.

Terrace/Moguvault lasted 160 days (5.5 months)
Blackrock Foundry lasted 141 days (4.5 months)
Emerald Nightmare lasted 119 days (4 months)
Nighthold lasted 154 days (5 months)
Tomb of Sargeras lasted 162 days ( 5.5 months)
Uldir lasted 139 days (4.5 months)
BoD lasted 168 days (5.5 months)
Palace lasted 197 days (6.5 months)

You can also look at normal/heroic clear rates on warcraftlogs. About 90% of all logged kills on heroic happen within the first four months. That holds true for Nathria, Sanctum, Eternal Palace, and likely any other ride you will check. Why? Because people usually are decked out in gear somewhere between month 3-4 (esp. with m+). Then you farm the final boss for a few instances, and you're done.

If you now have a blizzard dev stating that "6-8 months is the ideal duration", then that's a pretty bad and sad statement - it's practically not supported by any data, wether it's past raid duration or actual clear rates.

[Valysar]

S4 will last 3 months imo, max.

[Nymrohd]

If you go by history, excluding the usual final tier, then pretty much all raid tiers lasted 4.5 to 5.5 months since well, Mists of Pandaria, the only exclusion ever was Eternal Place.

Terrace/Moguvault lasted 160 days (5.5 months)
Blackrock Foundry lasted 141 days (4.5 months)
Emerald Nightmare lasted 119 days (4 months)
Nighthold lasted 154 days (5 months)
Tomb of Sargeras lasted 162 days ( 5.5 months)
Uldir lasted 139 days (4.5 months)
BoD lasted 168 days (5.5 months)
Palace lasted 197 days (6.5 months)

You can also look at normal/heroic clear rates on warcraftlogs. About 90% of all logged kills on heroic happen within the first four months. That holds true for Nathria, Sanctum, Eternal Palace, and likely any other ride you will check. Why? Because people usually are decked out in gear somewhere between month 3-4 (esp. with m+). Then you farm the final boss for a few instances, and you're done.

If you now have a blizzard dev stating that "6-8 months is the ideal duration", then that's a pretty bad and sad statement - it's practically not supported by any data, wether it's past raid duration or actual clear rates.

I think the general agreement was that Legion had the best pacing. Legion had 11 weeks between patches steady and the raid usually became available on the second week. So 21 weeks (5 months) for Heroic (and 20 for Mythic). That would place S4 at late July/early August

[Foreign Exchange Ztudent]

Lets say hypothetically that the Prequel book releases on the date (November 22nd 2022) well then if we add the usual 100-115 days it would place it as a March release date.

Either way, the timeline seems to push this expansion into Q1 2023.

[Lady Atia]

If you go by history, excluding the usual final tier, then pretty much all raid tiers lasted 4.5 to 5.5 months since well, Mists of Pandaria, the only exclusion ever was Eternal Place.

Terrace/Moguvault lasted 160 days (5.5 months)
Blackrock Foundry lasted 141 days (4.5 months)
Emerald Nightmare lasted 119 days (4 months)
Nighthold lasted 154 days (5 months)
Tomb of Sargeras lasted 162 days ( 5.5 months)
Uldir lasted 139 days (4.5 months)
BoD lasted 168 days (5.5 months)
Palace lasted 197 days (6.5 months)

You can also look at normal/heroic clear rates on warcraftlogs. About 90% of all logged kills on heroic happen within the first four months. That holds true for Nathria, Sanctum, Eternal Palace, and likely any other ride you will check. Why? Because people usually are decked out in gear somewhere between month 3-4 (esp. with m+). Then you farm the final boss for a few instances, and you're done.

If you now have a blizzard dev stating that "6-8 months is the ideal duration", then that's a pretty bad and sad statement - it's practically not supported by any data, wether it's past raid duration or actual clear rates.

6-8 months are the ideal duration because that's what most casual mythic guilds need to get cutting edge and farm a few mounts. They shouldn't make seasons shorter just because "heroic" guilds are done with the raid after 4 months. But than again, I'm all for making mythic more accessable for everyone. If you raid, you should clear mythic, imo.

[AngerFork]

If the hard coded nature of guilds limits what they can do with them, they could replicate guild features into communities and then just fold guilds into communities and effectively remove them.

I like this idea a lot. This would bring far more eyes to the communities feature which would likely bypass a lot of the current issues the guild interface has (limited membership, cross faction, cross server, cross game, etc). There's a few small pieces to figure out, but most of those could be worked around pretty easy. Perhaps for the Hall of Fame, you could build a team consisting of 25-30 Battle.Net accounts rather than have it at a guild level. Not sure...regardless, I'd totally be on board with this idea.

S4 will last 3 months imo, max.

Unlikely IMO, especially given that most pre-patches tend to go 4-6 weeks (Source: https://www.wowhead.com/news/specula...e-patch-317888). Doing only a 3 month S4 would be even shorter & weirder given that 1 or so of those months would almost certainly involve Evokers getting into this new experimental raid scene.

I do think it'll be shorter than most seasons, but 3 months is just too short IMO...especially if Blizz takes more time to get player feedback to have a sturdier launch this time.

[Skildar]

8 months seems too long to me whatever the situation. Below this it will depend on what other content they are able to deliver during that time.

If they play it like they did during Legion, where mid tier you are served a new zone with new stories to enjoy then I'm seeing no issue. If they do it like they've planned Shadowlands then there is very little chances that I will enjoy myself after 3months of play each season.

[Nymrohd]

8 months seems too long to me whatever the situation. Below this it will depend on what other content they are able to deliver during that time.

If they play it like they did during Legion, where mid tier you are served a new zone with new stories to enjoy then I'm seeing no issue. If they do it like they've planned Shadowlands then there is very little chances that I will enjoy myself after 3months of play each season.

The clockwork 11 week patch cycle of Legion is probably the goal right? I could see it growing by a week or two but beyond that you start to feel the burnout.

[rhorle]

It's not even three months yet for S3

It went live on March 1st. So it is a few days short of 3 months. It is a good bet s3 will end at the end of June or mid July. Horde Hall of Fame has been filled for a while. Alliance is no where near being filled so it can't really be accounted for unless Blizzard does major nerfs. Could Season 3 go to August or something? Sure. The thing we all have to remember though is that nothing is set in stone even when Blizzard says what a season typically lasts.

[Foreign Exchange Ztudent]

The Post-Launch support is definitely more important than whats' in at launch.

The release date is whatever to me, people clinging to a quicker release for their own self-interest isn't really a problem to me. It's just kind of funny especially with the way things have been for the past 4 years.