Actually, I'd say not to get too carried away with the semantics there—this seems less relevant if you take Occam's Razor to the fact that there the Aqir of Ny'Alotha are specified as "Aqir", something which we've not seen applied to any of the other Aqiri-derivative races. Add to that how these races are specifically referred to as Silithid and Nerubians during the Zek'voz battle, it is implicitly suggested that these are, in fact, recognized as specific races that are distinct from the Aqir as they originally were.
"Now, Le Conceptuel," you may say, "what does that say about anything? It could simply be that those Aqir are simply the original culture of Aqir who have not taken on the cultural monikers of the Mantid, Nerubians, etc." That's a fair point, but I'll further counter that these all consist a single set of Aqir, with no races identical to the Nerubians, Mantid, and Qiraji as would be suggested by those races being simply Aqir under a different culture.
This one could simply be a case of model reuse, and likely is, but I would also add that we even see the evolutionary predecessors to different races among the Nerubians, Mantid, and Qiraji—a common link, for instance, between the Nerubian Seers and Mantid Empresses can be seen in one specimen, and another is derivative of the common Nerubians when we don't see an equivalent so close among the Qiraji or Mantid. This is something of a stretch, but I figure it could also add to that.
Another counter I could think of is that the Nerubians and Qiraji both appear in a fight in Uldir, which is admittedly a good point—why would the Titans have specimens of those two races if they didn't exist before the supposed split? Well, the issue with that is that they are also referred to explicitly as Nerubians and Qiraji, so that means that the Titan Watchers there must've been at least aware of the Nerubian and Qiraji cultures, consequently meaning that it is also possible they somehow procured that information after these races spread out. There would've been a good period of time in which observation could take place on a singular landmass and procurement would not be too difficult. It also raises the question of what the real name of the Aqir under N'Zoth are, as if they were meant to just be a single strain, they would likely have a name of their own. On top of that, I would also add that Blizzard is not exactly ever keen to rely on semantics to clarify something—if the Aqir had multiple subraces before the split, it would've been communicated very openly instead of left to this matter of interpretation.
In summation, Occam's Razor states that the Aqir are likely their own race simply because the Aqir under N'Zoth are never specified as anything but Aqir and, conversely, the Nerubians, Qiraji and Mantid are never called Aqir outside of a particular period of time in Chronicles which is an interim period which would've taken place before any divergent evolution could occur.
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I'm honestly fairly certain that's not what's going to happen—there seems to be a buildup more to a schism in the Light, as odd as that is, and it seems like the Light's not strictly been villain batted. It seems more like it's building up to the idea that some of the Light's followers have a different interpretation of its singular will.
I'd also say that this is certainly not going to happen this expansion—I expect Yrel to show up later on, but in the expansion following Dragonflight. If there's an internal threat in the Alliance, it'll probably be the Scarlet Brotherhood because they have a thematic link to the expansion in their implicitly-Draconic heir.
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I don't know—voices stay the same, and Calia was certainly recognizable face-wise. I doubt somebody could bare somebody's child and then not be recognized due to a pale complexion and a different name.

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