Dragonflight Alpha/Beta General Discussion

[Dracullus]

Speculation discussion turned into "will there be 4th season or not?". General discussion is again filled with "sky is falling THIS TIME FOR SURE" posts. Some names that were suspiciously silent last few months are back.

Sad to see honeymoon season gone. At least it was longer than BfAs.

[Tiradon]

I actually think the Jailer won't be dealt with in Shadowlands since he is built as this grand design plotter titan ++ guy , even if SL ends up being 2 patches which i still doubt although no build today is pretty disappointing.

Can him just escaping after getting to azeroth and we beat him before he reaches the world soul

[huth]

6 months on average for a content patch during an ongoing expansion. Yes, final content patches always lasted longer, a lot of them for over 10 months. And that's exactly the point why I brought it up.

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Pretty much this. 9.1 is way too big compared to any other .1 patch in the past. It has the size of the usual .2 patch that normally comes about 8-10 months after an expansion launch.

An average of 6 months would suggest a 9.2 around 12 months. You're not being terribly consistent here. You're also making stuff up based on your own preconceptions as to how big a patch should be and how big 9.1 is.

Sure. What drives subscriptions better, yet another patch for an ongoing expansion or being subbed for a brand new expansion? Again, a brand new expansion brings $50 on top of the monthly fee. A content patch brings nothing but the monthly fee.

A content patch brings it up more than an expansion you won't be ready to release for half a year longer. You're oversimplifying the situation with your assumption that it would get released any sooner by not having the patch.

[Revamp Man]

6 months on average for a content patch during an ongoing expansion. Yes, final content patches always lasted longer, a lot of them for over 10 months. And that's exactly the point why I brought it up.

ok now hear me out....maybe their new goal is lowering the end of expansion drought thus lowering the amount of time players are unsubscribed

i mean its literally the best way to keep subs from lapsing
increasing the length of patches means those players that get last minute seasonal stuff done have longer
this also cuts the final patch down by at least a couple months
so instead of an 11 month final patch cycle and players deciding to drop out for months we get 9 months maybe and less lull means less unsubs and thus less loss of revenue

again its not patch OR expansion its expansion OR patch and expansion

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Sure. What drives subscriptions better, yet another patch for an ongoing expansion or being subbed for a brand new expansion? Again, a brand new expansion brings $50 on top of the monthly fee. A content patch brings nothing but the monthly fee.

Maybe Shadowlands will just play out like Legion and BfA with 3 content patches. Maybe not. Who knows by now, it all depends on how long it will take them to release 9.1 (and that basically was my initial question: when will 9.1 happen when TBC is a major disrupting factor for the launch of 9.1).

TBC classic doesnt matter for SL
blizzard said themselves there isnt a lot of crossover and thus they arent worried about patches being released close to eachother

9.1 also doesnt set the pace for the expansion
if every worker could go back to the offices and do 100% of their stuff then the entire expansion would speed up it wouldnt be "well guys we got 9.1 out before we got back to normal but now we gotta work slower because 9.1"

[Dracullus]

TBC classic doesnt matter for SL
blizzard said themselves there isnt a lot of crossover and thus they arent worried about patches being released close to eachother

That's bullshit and you know it. Shit ton of retail people will play TBC Classic on release. I don't know where Blizzard said it, for sure they couldn't mean launch. This is not Naxxramas/Castle Nathria situation at all.

Of course majority of these people won't play TBC after first month, it's just nostalgia boost, but for sure it draws more attention than retail patch. I would said hype ladder would be something like that: retail expac > classic expac > retail patch > classic phase > really small retail patch like 9.0.5 or 6.1.

It doesn't mean it has to be set apart far away, 1-1.5 month is perfectly fine which was even case for 8.2->Vanilla.

[Revamp Man]

That's bullshit and you know it. Shit ton of retail people will play TBC Classic on release. I don't know where Blizzard said it, for sure they couldn't mean launch. This is not Naxxramas/Castle Nathria situation at all.

Of course majority of these people won't play TBC after first month, it's just nostalgia boost, but for sure it draws more attention than retail patch. I would said hype ladder would be something like that: retail expac > classic expac > retail patch > classic phase > really small retail patch like 9.0.5 or 6.1.

It doesn't mean it has to be set apart far away, 1-1.5 month is perfectly fine which was even case for 8.2->Vanilla.

according to Kotick they arent concerned
cant remember the interview but i think the guy from the company knows more than players on the forums

tbc is going to launch mid SL
it wont hurt progression and SL wont hurt players leveling in TBC especially because TBC leveling is a wholeeee lot easier
also in terms of money the overlap is meaningless so releasing the patch and tbc around the same time isss.....perfectly fine

lets add the fact that tbc release might be mid to late 9.1 even though people decide to say "retail wont release a patch until november but classic will go through alpha and beta then launch in november"

sadly blizzard is the only entity with the right numbers but if you want i can screech "retail patches are more important than classic phases just look at the world first race and look at the marketing"

[Nyel]

TBC classic doesnt matter for SL
blizzard said themselves there isnt a lot of crossover and thus they arent worried about patches being released close to eachother

9.1 also doesnt set the pace for the expansion
if every worker could go back to the offices and do 100% of their stuff then the entire expansion would speed up it wouldnt be "well guys we got 9.1 out before we got back to normal but now we gotta work slower because 9.1"

TBC Classic absolutely matters for SL, at least its launch date does. The ongoing phases won't matter much, but TBC Classic launch will be a spectacle as Classic launch was. They will not release TBC and 9.1 within <4 weeks. And as of now it looks more likely that TBC will launch before 9.1 sees the light of day. Mid March is over and we haven't heard any news of 9.1 or seen anything more from it. We're heading towards a June release date for 9.1 which is 7 months after SL launch. I often do not agree with Dracullus, but here I do. TBC is Blizzard's biggest factor for revenue in 2021.

And 9.1 sets the pace for the expansion in the sense of the later 9.1 comes the less time is there for huge content patches with raids like .2 and .3. Content patches without big raids? Sure, like it was in MOP. But huge patches like in Legion? Doubt it. The next expansion will inevitably launch later next year (because it's their only constant generator of huge revenue spikes) and that's the limiting factor for everything in between 9.0 and 10.0.

An average of 6 months would suggest a 9.2 around 12 months. You're not being terribly consistent here. You're also making stuff up based on your own preconceptions as to how big a patch should be and how big 9.1 is.

A content patch brings it up more than an expansion you won't be ready to release for half a year longer. You're oversimplifying the situation with your assumption that it would get released any sooner by not having the patch.

An average of 6 months for content patches, that means .1 to .2 or .2 to .3. Not .0 to .1 as the expansion launch is no content patch. Please go over WoW's patch cycle as I did and check for the launch dates. Content patches that contain raid tiers last for an average of 6 months mid expansion, final content patches are always longer than that, averaging 9-10 months.

And I don't make stuff up. Again, go back and check WoW patches. Check 4.1, 5.1, 6.1, 7.1 and 8.1 and compare them to 9.1. And then compare 9.1 to 8.2 or 7.2 and you'll see that 9.1 is way more in the style of 7.2 and 8.2 than it is of 7.1 and 8.1. Do you agree or disagree that 9.1 looks more like 8.2 than 8.1?

By the way, there's a nice article from massivelyop about 9.1 titled The long wait for patch 9.1 in World of Warcraft: https://massivelyop.com/2021/03/19/w...d-of-warcraft/ - it's a nice read a it lays out many points I brought up.

[Wangming]

TBC Classic absolutely matters for SL, at least its launch date does. The ongoing phases won't matter much, but TBC Classic launch will be a spectacle as Classic launch was. They will not release TBC and 9.1 within <4 weeks. And as of now it looks more likely that TBC will launch before 9.1 sees the light of day. Mid March is over and we haven't heard any news of 9.1 or seen anything more from it. We're heading towards a June release date for 9.1 which is 7 months after SL launch. I often do not agree with Dracullus, but here I do. TBC is Blizzard's biggest factor for revenue in 2021.

And 9.1 sets the pace for the expansion in the sense of the later 9.1 comes the less time is there for huge content patches with raids like .2 and .3. Content patches without big raids? Sure, like it was in MOP. But huge patches like in Legion? Doubt it. The next expansion will inevitably launch later next year (because it's their only constant generator of huge revenue spikes) and that's the limiting factor for everything in between 9.0 and 10.0.



An average of 6 months for content patches, that means .1 to .2 or .2 to .3. Not .0 to .1 as the expansion launch is no content patch. Please go over WoW's patch cycle as I did and check for the launch dates. Content patches that contain raid tiers last for an average of 6 months mid expansion, final content patches are always longer than that, averaging 9-10 months.

And I don't make stuff up. Again, go back and check WoW patches. Check 4.1, 5.1, 6.1, 7.1 and 8.1 and compare them to 9.1. And then compare 9.1 to 8.2 or 7.2 and you'll see that 9.1 is way more in the style of 7.2 and 8.2 than it is of 7.1 and 8.1. Do you agree or disagree that 9.1 looks more like 8.2 than 8.1?

By the way, there's a nice article from massivelyop about 9.1 titled The long wait for patch 9.1 in World of Warcraft: https://massivelyop.com/2021/03/19/w...d-of-warcraft/ - it's a nice read a it lays out many points I brought up.

Okay, let's do the math. The shortest expansion time was 21 months, the longest was 27 so that gives us an average of 24. Exactly two years. So that would put 10.0 at 2022 November. The shortest PTR phase for a content patch was about a month and a week. That is unlikely for 9.1 but if that were true and we would get it on the PTR tomorrow it would juuuust release at the end of April, so let's say May as the most optimistic estimate. That would leave us with 18 months between 9.1 and 10.0. As you said the last raid tier lasts about 10 months. If we assume that the raid is released the same month as the patch and not staggered to the next that leaves us with 8 months between 9.1 and the last patch. So 4 months each? It took them 4 months to release a system update patch they have to hotfix every day since, so I doubt they would be able to pull it off.

So yeah it seems likely that SL will end with 9.2.

And storywise...well we have been assaulting the base of the Jailer since 9.0 endgame,and 9.1 will see us deal with Kel'Thuzad and Sylvanas, so even if Denathrius somehow pullls a merely a setback there isn't much potential left in this premise.

[Aeluron Lightsong]

Just like 8.3 doesn't exist.



<.< <.<

[Wangming]

Just like 8.3 doesn't exist.



<.< <.<

What about it? Came 7 months after 8.2, spent 3 months and a week on the PTR, lasted 10 months. Pretty standard.

[Dracullus]

I checked how many item levels Blizzard "reserved" in Beta for conduits. Turns out they made room for 5 seasons.

[Wangming]

I checked how many item levels Blizzard "reserved" in Beta for conduits. Turns out they made room for 5 seasons.

Plans might have changed.

Granted all we can do is extrapolate from prior data. For all we know they could make Shadowlands last three years and end the expansion with a 9.6 patch. If they try something drastically new, it will catch us off guard.

They'll need some content for Fall/winter to counterbalance Endwalker and End of Dragons, but depending on when 9.1 releases it might only be a few months old.

Besides this, all we can do is make educated guesses.

[Nathanyel]

I don't really see Oribos raid like some been predicting. Like, this is a gigantic flying dildo of a place with circular structure and same decoration. Sure, they could come up with new levels or portals or something but still don't like it. Orgrimmar at least had an entire underground base created.

It doesn't have to take place entirely in Oribos, we've seen plenty of raids that aren't constricted to one 'zone'. It started in Dragon Soul, named so because it wasn't just the defense of Wyrmrest or the showdown at the Maelstrom. The full first third of Siege of Orgrimmar takes place in Pandaria. HFC, ToS, Antorus, BoD, AEP all end elsewhere.

Maybe it's just the last 1 or 2 encounters.
One in the lower levels, the remaining general and/or forces of the Jailer harassing the Attendants and Brokers, obvious distraction, but we have to take care of it.
Then the Jailer himself attacking the Arbiter.

Maybe it even "starts" in Oribos, raid portal takes us to a staging area, we go to the Maw (less likely after 9.1) and other places the Jailer might be or has been, chasing him, but only returning to Oribos in the end.

[TheFirstOnes]

I actually think the Jailer won't be dealt with in Shadowlands since he is built as this grand design plotter titan ++ guy , even if SL ends up being 2 patches which i still doubt although no build today is pretty disappointing.

SL likely won’t be 2 patches. Could be 3 imo.

Also, the Jailer’s plot doesn’t end with him being destroyed. If the narrative is true, then the guy essentially started the entire cosmic war. Meaning he has influence over the battle between Light and Void.

[razorpax]

TBC Classic absolutely matters for SL, at least its launch date does. The ongoing phases won't matter much, but TBC Classic launch will be a spectacle as Classic launch was. They will not release TBC and 9.1 within <4 weeks. And as of now it looks more likely that TBC will launch before 9.1 sees the light of day. Mid March is over and we haven't heard any news of 9.1 or seen anything more from it. We're heading towards a June release date for 9.1 which is 7 months after SL launch. I often do not agree with Dracullus, but here I do. TBC is Blizzard's biggest factor for revenue in 2021.

And 9.1 sets the pace for the expansion in the sense of the later 9.1 comes the less time is there for huge content patches with raids like .2 and .3. Content patches without big raids? Sure, like it was in MOP. But huge patches like in Legion? Doubt it. The next expansion will inevitably launch later next year (because it's their only constant generator of huge revenue spikes) and that's the limiting factor for everything in between 9.0 and 10.0.



An average of 6 months for content patches, that means .1 to .2 or .2 to .3. Not .0 to .1 as the expansion launch is no content patch. Please go over WoW's patch cycle as I did and check for the launch dates. Content patches that contain raid tiers last for an average of 6 months mid expansion, final content patches are always longer than that, averaging 9-10 months.

And I don't make stuff up. Again, go back and check WoW patches. Check 4.1, 5.1, 6.1, 7.1 and 8.1 and compare them to 9.1. And then compare 9.1 to 8.2 or 7.2 and you'll see that 9.1 is way more in the style of 7.2 and 8.2 than it is of 7.1 and 8.1. Do you agree or disagree that 9.1 looks more like 8.2 than 8.1?

By the way, there's a nice article from massivelyop about 9.1 titled The long wait for patch 9.1 in World of Warcraft: https://massivelyop.com/2021/03/19/w...d-of-warcraft/ - it's a nice read a it lays out many points I brought up.

Is TBC in beta right now???? No?? Oh yeah that’s right it’s not in Alpha either while 9.1 is a simple 4-7 week testing phase.

It’s ok though I’m surprised that TBC is only going to have a 6 week testing phase

I’m also surprised that you’ve identified a pattern for classic releases which we have no information on how it would actually effect retail as we only have the phase releases to go by and each of those are.....less than the retail patches in terms of player interest

[Wangming]

SL likely won’t be 2 patches. Could be 3 imo.

Also, the Jailer’s plot doesn’t end with him being destroyed. If the narrative is true, then the guy essentially started the entire cosmic war. Meaning he has influence over the battle between Light and Void.

Deathwing, N'zoth, Azshara and Xavius say hello. Cosmic entities with decades of lore buildup can be quickly wrapped up in a Raid.

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Another thing occured to me. BlizzCon. While patterns can always change so far we always had a WoW expansion every second BlizzCon and the last one had none so the next one should logically speaking include an expansion. Question is, when will we get the next one? Is it going to be this november as usual? Or february again. Or do they think BlizzConline was enough for 2021 and we will have another as late as 2022 November?

Even if we get 9.1 on the PTR today and finish testing in a month that will be late April for release. 7 months from november, so it is a tight schedule if they want to squeeze in another major content patch between 9.1 and BlizzCon.

If they go with February that gives them 10 months. More than enough for 9.2 but not 9.3

2022 November would be way too late for an announcement as that would be 24 months into the expansion.

So they have to announce the new expansion around 9.2

[huth]

Deathwing, N'zoth, Azshara and Xavius say hello. Cosmic entities with decades of lore buildup can be quickly wrapped up in a Raid.

That's dishonest at best, and self-contradictive at worst. Each of them had at minimum an entire zone involved in your so-called "quick wrap up" in addition to the raid. Deathwing had an entire expansion.
Azshara wasn't even wrapped up at all, she's still out and about.

[Dracullus]

Deathwing, N'zoth, Azshara and Xavius say hello. Cosmic entities with decades of lore buildup can be quickly wrapped up in a Raid.

- - - Updated - - -

Another thing occured to me. BlizzCon. While patterns can always change so far we always had a WoW expansion every second BlizzCon and the last one had none so the next one should logically speaking include an expansion. Question is, when will we get the next one? Is it going to be this november as usual? Or february again. Or do they think BlizzConline was enough for 2021 and we will have another as late as 2022 November?

Even if we get 9.1 on the PTR today and finish testing in a month that will be late April for release. 7 months from november, so it is a tight schedule if they want to squeeze in another major content patch between 9.1 and BlizzCon.

If they go with February that gives them 10 months. More than enough for 9.2 but not 9.3

2022 November would be way too late for an announcement as that would be 24 months into the expansion.

So they have to announce the new expansion around 9.2

7 months from SL release is late June, not April. Which is still most likely release window for 9.1.

Imo next Blizzcon will be Blizzcon '22, not only earlier dates are still not 100% safe, but also there is a chance it will contain something new. Right now just more news about DIV/OV2 isn't enough, also looks like remaster well is empty (beside next wow classic expacs).

If 10.0 will be just like any other expansion, they could just make live event whenever they want, let's say shortly after launch of last patch PTR (which could be around spring '22). SL isn't hated expansion, as long as they keep pumping informations and patches (so NOT like right now), people won't raise pitchforks.

10.0 could be also huge revamp, some future expansion will be that anyway. I don't think anyone could have problem if Blizzard put message "hey, next expansion will be something different and is still far away, but we will fill that time with SL and Classic content (including Wrath)".

I know it's wild guess 10.0 could be something bigger, but I don't think it's crazy to expect that ONE of future expansions will be like that.

[Wangming]

That's dishonest at best, and self-contradictive at worst. Each of them had at minimum an entire zone involved in your so-called "quick wrap up" in addition to the raid. Deathwing had an entire expansion.
Azshara wasn't even wrapped up at all, she's still out and about.

And? So does the Jailer. He is the main villain of the expansion and the Maw is pretty much his zone. The point is, even though he was retconned into the story as the driving force behind every conflict, we can and will move on after he is deal with. As usual.

[huth]

And? So does the Jailer. He is the main villain of the expansion and the Maw is pretty much his zone. The point is, even though he was retconned into the story as the driving force behind every conflict, we can and will move on after he is deal with. As usual.

That's not at all what you claimed, though. There's still plenty of story being told here, we're not just waltzing up to him and bitchslapping him into submission out of nowhere.