Dragonflight Alpha/Beta General Discussion

[Dracullus]

It's also absolutely no problem if it releases in Q1 23.

I honestly don't see a problem SL lasting few months longer if first patch was few months longer. As long as gap from last raid isn't longer than 10 months, things are fine.

Only danger are greedy people pushing expac release to Christmas. At least Blizzard has Diablo IV and Overwatch II for this year (not confirmed but likely), I don't think it would be hard to convince HQ to save one of 3 big releases for '23.

And I repeated it many times, but it's sad that people that likely view themselves as fair critics, acts like sheeps and want to abandon current expac 5 minutes after they're bored and spend another 50€. Even if you completely don't like SL, endgame can drastically change between patches, no need to cut expac short.

[huth]

I honestly don't see a problem SL lasting few months longer if first patch was few months longer. As long as gap from last raid isn't longer than 10 months, things are fine.

Frankly, i don't think the 10 month final patches are actually on purpose. It's just how long they needed in the past to get the next expansion ready. Though i have some doubts they'd have 10.0 ready to go much earlier than that anyway; it's not like the delays affecting SL wouldn't affect the next expansion too since it is already in development.

[Nyel]

So, with 9.1 being a mid June / early July release (if everything goes as planned), we most likely will not get 9.2 in 2021, at least not when it comes with an additional raid tier. 9.2 would have to be released mid December if Blizzard is sticking to their 6 months schedule for content patches that contain raid tiers (and that only applies if 9.1 launches mid June and not later). A mid December content patch sounds very unlikely.

8.3 released on January 15 in 2020, this is my earliest bet for the 9.2 release date. It’s pretty clear what this means for Shadowlands overall.

[razorpax]

So, with 9.1 being a mid June / early July release (if everything goes as planned), we most likely will not get 9.2 in 2021, at least not when it comes with an additional raid tier. 9.2 would have to be released mid December if Blizzard is sticking to their 6 months schedule for content patches that contain raid tiers (and that only applies if 9.1 launches mid June and not later). A mid December content patch sounds very unlikely.

8.3 released on January 15 in 2020, this is my earliest bet for the 9.2 release date. It’s pretty clear what this means for Shadowlands overall.

Yeah it means 9.2 launches next year

[Wangming]

So, with 9.1 being a mid June / early July release (if everything goes as planned), we most likely will not get 9.2 in 2021, at least not when it comes with an additional raid tier. 9.2 would have to be released mid December if Blizzard is sticking to their 6 months schedule for content patches that contain raid tiers (and that only applies if 9.1 launches mid June and not later). A mid December content patch sounds very unlikely.

8.3 released on January 15 in 2020, this is my earliest bet for the 9.2 release date. It’s pretty clear what this means for Shadowlands overall.

Save it, dude. I'm pretty much the only one who agrees that we won't have a 9.3

[razorpax]

Save it, dude. I'm pretty much the only one who agrees that we won't have a 9.3

Well you can bet the team working on 10.0 is also behind so they have two options
1. Cut the expansion at 9.2 and move devs over leaving us in maintenance mode for another year long gap and needing the team to catch up with the ones already designing it And possibly releasing a half baked expansion

2. Have the current team design 9.3 and have the 10.0 team use that time to catch up with the next expansion

Option 1 makes a high risk low reward situation where they lose more revenue and have to speed all the future developments up as well

Option 2 is low risk high reward
It buys the expansion team more time and gives the current expansion more time and more content leading to a more successful 10.0 launch and fewer lost subs to a content drought

[Edward Wu]

Yeah it's very likely that the expansion that has dropped 60% of its base already is going to get support for longer than any other expansion in history... because we just need to have a 9.3 guys!!!

Glue huffing is bad, mkay?

[razorpax]

Yeah it's very likely that the expansion that has dropped 60% of its base already is going to get support for longer than any other expansion in history... because we just need to have a 9.3 guys!!!

Glue huffing is bad, mkay?

Well when all of your teams are behind and you wanna make as much money as possible do you miss out on millions of dollars for sub revenue in order to keep to an old schedule where in doing so you essentially do WoD 2.0 and lose revenue because of a long drought or
Or do you continue the same content design you’ve had for 6 years and capitalize on the bad situation and not only increase revenue but also give the stockholders a good bit of news instead of “we are going back to the design that left us losing 70% of our players so we can launch a half done expansion”

[Aeluron Lightsong]

People forgot how big the jump was at the start of SL and somehow think it didn't exist and that explains the so called "60" drop.

[Dracullus]

As expected, after "9.1 will be August/November/2022" bullshit is clear, we go back to "there won't be X.3 patch for sure" bullshit. Oh and we have guy that apparently experience his first sub drop after launch, nice, nice.

Could someone less lazy dig up some Nyel quotes about "there won't be 8.3 patch for sure" from 2019? I member his arguments were as passionate as now, because current expansion is always a catastrophe, current sky is always falling and Blizzard is always in panic mode.

People forgot how big the jump was at the start of SL and somehow think it didn't exist and that explains the so called "60" drop.

At this point it's either discussion in bad faith or we are talking to goldfish with internet connection.

[Sondrelk]

I would argue that the expansion actually needs the extra long drought after the final patch. Not that it should be as long as it was in MoP, but the drought gives players time to complete not just the most recent patch, bit all the content they might want to take a crack at beyond that.

[Edward Wu]

Well when all of your teams are behind and you wanna make as much money as possible do you miss out on millions of dollars for sub revenue in order to keep to an old schedule where in doing so you essentially do WoD 2.0 and lose revenue because of a long drought or
Or do you continue the same content design you’ve had for 6 years and capitalize on the bad situation and not only increase revenue but also give the stockholders a good bit of news instead of “we are going back to the design that left us losing 70% of our players so we can launch a half done expansion”

What a fucking horrible post. Do people even think before hitting reply these days?

There is no WoD 2.0 situation. WoD had 1 fucking content patch - 6.2 and that was it. 6.1 was the worst patch in history. SL at worst will have 9.1 as a genuinely hefty content patch and 9.2 as another big one. That is already at least twice the amount of post-release content WoD had.

And taking 2.5-3 years to reach a hypothetical 9.3 is not "going back to old design". The writing for SL was on the wall when 9.1 announced as a totally different .1 patch in terms of content given and delivery, but I guess some people really do need to be hit in the face with reality in order to grasp it.

[Dracullus]

What a fucking horrible post. Do people even think before hitting reply these days?

Said by guy who not only present 60% drop as fact, but also think post launch "drop" is something that motivates Blizzard to cut 25% of raid content.

[Nyel]

Save it, dude. I'm pretty much the only one who agrees that we won't have a 9.3

I just find it funny how people really argue that a 9.3 is bringing in more revenue than a 10.0 that launches on time or even a little bit sooner. And even funnier are the guys that claim 9.3 is still possible if everything is just timed right and has a duration of only 6 months. Like the final drought after / during pandemic development is all of a sudden shortened from 10 months to 6 - this is the actual funny part here.

To fit a 9.3 into Shadowlands would require a perfect rollout without any delays, e.g.

9.1: June 21
9.2: December 21
9.3: June 22
10.0 (pre patch): November
10.0: December 22

If you just delay any of that by a month, the entire schedule is f*. And this schedule only works, if the last patch has a duration of even less than 6 months, because we have the pre patch on top of that.

And I mean 9.2 in December and particularly 10.0 expansion launch in December? That’s so incredibly unlikely. And no, they won’t delay 10.0 just to squeeze another patch into Shadowlands. People’s expectations that Shadowlands is about to get a proper expansion layout are delusional. If 10.0 doesn’t continue the Jailer‘s storyline, we’re going to end him in 9.2. 9.1 basically indicates that already as we kill most of his allies.

My pessimism has not even anything to do with hate or whatever, it’s just the fact that the schedule is completely busted.

Getting 10.0 out on time and it being great like Legion is their absolute main priority right now.

[TheFirstOnes]

I really don't get why people are talking about there being only 2 content patches for SL, when: A. SL and other Blizzard products are getting pushed back and delayed. And B. The schedule's all fucked. Revenue means nothing if you're just gonna rush shit or finish shit early. That's not how it works.

We'll get our answer once we know what 9.2 is. Then, that'll determine whether SL will end with 2 content patches, or 3.

[Dracullus]

We'll get our answer once we know what 9.2 is. Then, that'll determine whether SL will end with 2 content patches, or 3.

Yep, that would be only real proof. Especially description of 9.2 raid/last boss. In scenario when we have only 3 seasons I could see also some info in interview, since it would be something they won't usually do.

Outside that, we have just assumptions. For example, why the hell 10.0 MUST release in 2022? Blizzard has Diablo IV and Overwatch 2 that were revealed back in 2019. Do you think Blizzard release all 3 in 2022? Or you think DIV or OV2 will release sooner after game revealed in (in this scenario) in 2022? If Blizzard will have 2 new games ready for that year, actually SL having one more patch to release would be optimal.

And it's just one. Don't get me wrong - "there will be 4 season cause it's usual amount of content" is also assumption.

[razorpax]

I just find it funny how people really argue that a 9.3 is bringing in more revenue than a 10.0 that launches on time or even a little bit sooner. And even funnier are the guys that claim 9.3 is still possible if everything is just timed right and has a duration of only 6 months. Like the final drought after / during pandemic development is all of a sudden shortened from 10 months to 6 - this is the actual funny part here.

To fit a 9.3 into Shadowlands would require a perfect rollout without any delays, e.g.

9.1: June 21
9.2: December 21
9.3: June 22
10.0 (pre patch): November
10.0: December 22

If you just delay any of that by a month, the entire schedule is f*. And this schedule only works, if the last patch has a duration of even less than 6 months, because we have the pre patch on top of that.

And I mean 9.2 in December and particularly 10.0 expansion launch in December? That’s so incredibly unlikely. And no, they won’t delay 10.0 just to squeeze another patch into Shadowlands. People’s expectations that Shadowlands is about to get a proper expansion layout are delusional. If 10.0 doesn’t continue the Jailer‘s storyline, we’re going to end him in 9.2. 9.1 basically indicates that already as we kill most of his allies.

My pessimism has not even anything to do with hate or whatever, it’s just the fact that the schedule is completely busted.

Getting 10.0 out on time and it being great like Legion is their absolute main priority right now.

How can 10.0 launch in the original time frame when we can assume they are also behind??

- - - Updated - - -

I really don't get why people are talking about there being only 2 content patches for SL, when: A. SL and other Blizzard products are getting pushed back and delayed. And B. The schedule's all fucked. Revenue means nothing if you're just gonna rush shit or finish shit early. That's not how it works.

We'll get our answer once we know what 9.2 is. Then, that'll determine whether SL will end with 2 content patches, or 3.

But but the unofficial 2 year schedule is never ever going to be changed

[Nyel]

How can 10.0 launch in the original time frame when we can assume they are also behind??

This answer is easy: because work they planned for 9.3 is shifted towards 10.0 and they’re wrapping up former 9.3 content in 9.2 - happened exactly this way in WoD.

- - - Updated - - -

I really don't get why people are talking about there being only 2 content patches for SL, when: A. SL and other Blizzard products are getting pushed back and delayed. And B. The schedule's all fucked. Revenue means nothing if you're just gonna rush shit or finish shit early. That's not how it works.

We'll get our answer once we know what 9.2 is. Then, that'll determine whether SL will end with 2 content patches, or 3.

Because WoW is a games as a service game with expansions and not a game that’s been released once and then only gets occasional DLCs, if at all. Blizzard absolutely needs the cash that’s generated every two years by their expansion sales for WoW. They’re losing out hundreds of millions of dollars in the quarter they’re not releasing the expansion in. They need the expansion to boost their sales.

I agree on the last part though: 9.2 tells us if there is 9.3 or not.

- - - Updated - - -

Yep, that would be only real proof. Especially description of 9.2 raid/last boss. In scenario when we have only 3 seasons I could see also some info in interview, since it would be something they won't usually do.

Outside that, we have just assumptions. For example, why the hell 10.0 MUST release in 2022? Blizzard has Diablo IV and Overwatch 2 that were revealed back in 2019. Do you think Blizzard release all 3 in 2022? Or you think DIV or OV2 will release sooner after game revealed in (in this scenario) in 2022? If Blizzard will have 2 new games ready for that year, actually SL having one more patch to release would be optimal.

And it's just one. Don't get me wrong - "there will be 4 season cause it's usual amount of content" is also assumption.

Diablo IV isn’t going to release in 2022. Overwatch 2 might release in that year, most likely in Q2 on Overwatch‘s anniversary. That leaves Q3/4 for the WoW expansion - and that’s expected as it’s their schedule for years now. Diablo IV will be released in 2023, with WotLK Classic being the other big release that year.
_______

Delaying 10.0 is from a financial standpoint the option that means the biggest financial loss.

[Nathanyel]

[January] is my earliest bet for the 9.2 release date. It’s pretty clear what this means for Shadowlands overall.

Yeah, it means there is more than enough time to do a 9.3 and also finish 10.0 by October/November. Probably with some cut features, or skipping 9.X.5 patches, sure, but I'd actually prefer that to getting a last patch in January and then nothing but expansion lull until Q4.

Or actually delay 10.0 until early 2022, whatever. This pandemic won't be over by the summer or even the fall, no need to rush or cut short your product if you'll face more delays down the line anyway.

[Nyel]

Yeah, it means there is more than enough time to do a 9.3 and also finish 10.0 by October/November. Probably with some cut features, or skipping 9.X.5 patches, sure, but I'd actually prefer that to getting a last patch in January and then nothing but expansion lull until Q4.

Or actually delay 10.0 until early 2022, whatever. This pandemic won't be over by the summer or even the fall, no need to rush or cut short your product if you'll face more delays down the line anyway.

If 9.2 gets released in January, how will you fit 9.3 and 10.0 in 2022?

9.2: January
10.0 pre patch: November
10.0: December (that’s already very late)

So between January and November you have 10 months to fit a ~9-10 months content drought and a 6 months duration for 9.2 into - good luck with that.

In every scenario 10.0 beats 9.3 from a financial standpoint.