Dragonflight Alpha/Beta General Discussion

[Edward Wu]

Likely reality:

July 2021: Shadowlands 9.1
October 2021: TBC Classic
December 2021: Shadowlands 9.1.5 & TBC Black Temple
January 2022: TBC Gods of Zul'Aman
February 2022: Shadowlands 9.2
March 2022: TBC Sunwell & Isle of Quel'danas
April 2022: 10.0 Alpha
May 2022: 10.0 Beta
October 2022: 10.0 Pre-patch
November 2022: 10.0 Expansion launch

[Dracullus]

Diablo IV isn’t going to release in 2022. Overwatch 2 might release in that year, most likely in Q2 on Overwatch‘s anniversary. That leaves Q3/4 for the WoW expansion - and that’s expected as it’s their schedule for years now. Diablo IV will be released in 2023, with WotLK Classic being the other big release that year.

My whole point is that your "10.0 MUST launch in 2022" is just assumption that is easy to break if Blizz release DIV and OV2 in 2022. Your answer is "no, Diablo IV isn't going to release in 2022". Dude, that's ANOTHER assumption and this time I don't even know what the hell is your base, Christmas '22 is like 20 months from now.

You just mark 5-6 unrelated events as 'confirmed' and create scenario where 9.3 is not possible. You did exactly same thing two years ago.

[huth]

If 9.2 gets released in January, how will you fit 9.3 and 10.0 in 2022?

You don't. The problem isn't the timeframe though, but your irrational insistence that they will keep to the old schedule that is all shot to hell and no longer really feasible.

Throwing the 9.3 team on 10.0 will do little to nothing other than messing the schedule up further. You cannot get a late project on time by throwing more manpower at it.

[Dracullus]

You don't. The problem isn't the timeframe though, but your irrational insistence that they will keep to the old schedule that is all shot to hell and no longer really feasible.

Throwing the 9.3 team on 10.0 will do little to nothing other than messing the schedule up further. You cannot get a late project on time by throwing more manpower at it.

Also this. They told us already that making expansion is long process with many bottlenecks that can't be solved with throwing more people at it. Judging from rumors WoD was planned to end with 6.2 even before release. It still didn't save expac from unnatural drought, maybe they saved few months at best.

If 9.1/patches production is slowed down, 10.0 production is affected by this as well.

[Nyel]

Likely reality:

July 2021: Shadowlands 9.1
October 2021: TBC Classic
December 2021: Shadowlands 9.1.5 & TBC Black Temple
January 2022: TBC Gods of Zul'Aman
February 2022: Shadowlands 9.2
March 2022: TBC Sunwell & Isle of Quel'danas
April 2022: 10.0 Alpha
May 2022: 10.0 Beta
October 2022: 10.0 Pre-patch
November 2022: 10.0 Expansion launch

Yeah pretty much. 9.3 PTR and 10.0 Alpha / Beta would have to take place at the exact same time, which makes it even less likely.

[TheFirstOnes]

This answer is easy: because work they planned for 9.3 is shifted towards 10.0 and they’re wrapping up former 9.3 content in 9.2 - happened exactly this way in WoD.

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Because WoW is a games as a service game with expansions and not a game that’s been released once and then only gets occasional DLCs, if at all. Blizzard absolutely needs the cash that’s generated every two years by their expansion sales for WoW. They’re losing out hundreds of millions of dollars in the quarter they’re not releasing the expansion in. They need the expansion to boost their sales.

I agree on the last part though: 9.2 tells us if there is 9.3 or not.

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Diablo IV isn’t going to release in 2022. Overwatch 2 might release in that year, most likely in Q2 on Overwatch‘s anniversary. That leaves Q3/4 for the WoW expansion - and that’s expected as it’s their schedule for years now. Diablo IV will be released in 2023, with WotLK Classic being the other big release that year.
_______

Delaying 10.0 is from a financial standpoint the option that means the biggest financial loss.

You say this like finishing SL fast and leaving plotpoints open-ended (Meaning they probably won't be solved later on unless Blizzard pulls a new threat out of its ass, which is unlikely) is not going to make people completely quit the game...

[Nyel]

My whole point is that your "10.0 MUST launch in 2022" is just assumption that is easy to break if Blizz release DIV and OV2 in 2022. Your answer is "no, Diablo IV isn't going to release in 2022". Dude, that's ANOTHER assumption and this time I don't even know what the hell is your base, Christmas '22 is like 20 months from now.

You just mark 5-6 unrelated events as 'confirmed' and create scenario where 9.3 is not possible. You did exactly same thing two years ago.

What’s more likely. 10.0 in 2022 which most likely has been already planned to launch that year several years ago or Diablo IV in 2022, which is a completely unfinished product yet and was just revealed less than two years ago?

Diablo IV was announced in 2019 and remember, 2018 they revealed Diablo Immortal because they had nothing to show of Diablo IV that year. Diablo III was announced June 2008 and released May 2012 - 4 years later. A Diablo IV release 2022 would be a miracle - hey, I’d love that, but let’s be serious here: what’s likelier to get scheduled on time during a pandemic, a WoW expansion that launches every 2 year and is business as usual or a brand new Diablo game? So yes, I’m talking assumptions, but some are more likely and others less likely.

[TheFirstOnes]

Who's to say 10.0 won't just be pushed to 2023?

[Nyel]

You say this like finishing SL fast and leaving plotpoints open-ended (Meaning they probably won't be solved later on unless Blizzard pulls a new threat out of its ass, which is unlikely) is not going to make people completely quit the game...

Because it’s not. People don’t quit WoW forever just because one of their minor plots wasn’t realized in a content patch.

We got Emerald Nightmare as a raid and Azshara as a content patch - it can’t get much worse than that when it comes to abandoning plots and people already moved on. A brand new expansion due to its sales alone is driving revenue and most people, even if they don’t stay subbed, try (and buy) a new expansion.

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Who's to say 10.0 won't just be pushed to 2023?

Blizzard‘s CFO / financial department.

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You don't. The problem isn't the timeframe though, but your irrational insistence that they will keep to the old schedule that is all shot to hell and no longer really feasible.

Throwing the 9.3 team on 10.0 will do little to nothing other than messing the schedule up further. You cannot get a late project on time by throwing more manpower at it.

You can by doing exactly that. And I‘m not talking about they just shift their focus now. They know that they’re schedule is f* basically since the delay of Shadowlands. If not by then, just a few months later with the totally messed up schedule for 9.1.

It’s pretty obvious that 9.1 wouldn’t be such a chunk of content if they plan to have three meaty content patches with raids. It doesn’t fit their .1 scheme for first content patches.

[razorpax]

Because it’s not. People don’t quit WoW forever just because one of their minor plots wasn’t realized in a content patch.

We got Emerald Nightmare as a raid and Azshara as a content patch - it can’t get much worse than that when it comes to abandoning plots and people already moved over. A brand new expansion due to its sales alone is driving revenue and most people, even if they don’t stay subbed, try (and buy) a new expansion.

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Blizzard‘s CFO / financial department.

When did he say that?

[Nyel]

When did he say that?

He / she didn’t say that, but he / she is exactly the person who would prioritize a big chunk of cash vs. no chunk of cash. Annual spikes in revenue are very important for companies, that’s why they stick to their formulaic release schedules (e.g. Assassin‘s Creed for Ubisoft in November, Pokémon mainline games always in November etc.), because that’s how they plan and distribute revenue / money.

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Another note: the delay of Shadowlands didn’t affect their financial results at all because it was still a Q4 release as planned.

Moving 10.0 from 2022 to 2023 would delay it for an entire financial quarter.

[Dracullus]

He / she didn’t say that, but he / she is exactly the person who would prioritize a big chunk of cash vs. no chunk of cash. Annual spikes in revenue are very important for companies, that’s why they stick to their formulaic release schedules (e.g. Assassin‘s Creed for Ubisoft in November, Pokémon mainline games always in November etc.), because that’s how they plan and distribute revenue / money.

AC releases: 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015.. Sounds like they're pretty attached to cash in every year.

Oh, by the way, what Assasin's Creed game released in 2016 and 2019? Can't find that data.

[Wangming]

We'll get our answer once we know what 9.2 is. Then, that'll determine whether SL will end with 2 content patches, or 3.

That much is true, yes. However even the story seems to pick up pace. Denathrius is down, 9.1 we will deal with Kel'Thuzad AND Sylvanas. Do we really want to chase after the Jailer for two more patches after that? We are already assualting his base.

[huth]

You can by doing exactly that. And I‘m not talking about they just shift their focus now. They know that they’re schedule is f* basically since the delay of Shadowlands. If not by then, just a few months later with the totally messed up schedule for 9.1.

The timeline is already shot. You can't fix it anymore unless things happen to go smoother than expected.

It’s pretty obvious that 9.1 wouldn’t be such a chunk of content if they plan to have three meaty content patches with raids. It doesn’t fit their .1 scheme for first content patches.

No, that's really just you trying to predict things based on absolutely nothing and pouncing on random details as "evidence". We don't even know how big the patch actually is.

[Nyel]

AC releases: 2007, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015.. Sounds like they're pretty attached to cash in every year.

Oh, by the way, what Assasin's Creed game released in 2016 and 2019? Can't find that data.

Read again. I was talking about release months, which happened to be always November in the last years.

I just checked it, all but four AC main titles (8) released in early / mid November. The other four were released mid / end of October. All of them in Q3 each year. 2016 and 2019 had no mainline releases because Ubisoft was reevaluating and eventually completely revamping the gameplay (Origins, 2017) and Valhalla was more ambitious than the previous projects (2020). Annual releases where never what I was referring to, it was about the release frame and it’s always been Q3, either October or November. Granted, I said it was only November for AC, but it’s mostly November and not only.

[TheFirstOnes]

That much is true, yes. However even the story seems to pick up pace. Denathrius is down, 9.1 we will deal with Kel'Thuzad AND Sylvanas. Do we really want to chase after the Jailer for two more patches after that? We are already assualting his base.

Uhm, sure? I’ve already exclaimed why ya invading the Maw doesn’t mean shit

[Nyel]

The timeline is already shot. You can't fix it anymore unless things happen to go smoother than expected.



No, that's really just you trying to predict things based on absolutely nothing and pouncing on random details as "evidence". We don't even know how big the patch actually is.

The timeline yes, but not what you do with that time. Concepts that where planned for 9.3 could easily be brought into 9.2 or vice versa and most of the work that would have been needed to realize a potential 9.3 just shifts towards the team that’s working on 9.2 or already heavily involved on the creation of 10.0. Pretty easy to do because 9.3 at this point is barely more than a concept. 9.3 PTR, if it exists, is 12 months away. And by concept I mean they have already done this before the launch of Shadowlands. So that’s not even work that’s been wasted, when it never was more than an idea on paper.

And we know what usual .1 patches contain. We know what 9.1 contains. We know who is part of 9.1 already (most of the Jailer’s allies, Kel’thuzad and the lore heavyweight Sylvanas) - we’re basically just missing Arthas and Anduin at this point to finish the Jailer storyline and both of them are part of the final Jailer story (e.g. the final raid), one way or another.

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Uhm, sure? I’ve already exclaimed why ya invading the Maw doesn’t mean shit

9.1: We’re invading the Maw, we’re heavily abusing the Oribos port stone, we most likely lose, the Jailer uses the port stone...

9.2: The Jailer teleports to the other Shadowlands’ zones and eventually Oribos, in Oribos he kills the Arbiter (or whatever) and teleports to Azeroth, we fight him in Azeroth on top of Icecrown, Anduin becomes the new Arbiter (or Arthas? Who knows) - end of the Jailer storyline.

Plots like Garrosh in the Shadowlands? Interesting, but who cares.

[Dracullus]

Read again. I was talking about release months, which happened to be always November in the last years.

I just checked it, all but four AC main titles (8) released in early / mid November. The other four were released mid / end of October. All of them in Q3 each year. 2016 and 2019 had no mainline releases because Ubisoft was reevaluating and eventually completely revamping the gameplay (Origins, 2017) and Valhalla was more ambitious than the previous projects (2020). Annual releases where never what I was referring to, it was about the release frame and it’s always been Q3, either October or November. Granted, I said it was only November for AC, but it’s mostly November and not only.

At this point I don't know what the hell is your point. For some reason you assumed expansions are planned to release every 2 years every time. Then you compare WoW to annual AC. After I point out not every year had AC, for some reason it's not important, important thing is every AC releases in Q4. But not every WoW expansion releases in same quarter, last 10 years we had December-September-November-August-August-November releases. Looks like planning to release expac every two years doesn't work well, huh? But in your world "moving" release from August to November is possible, but moving date from November to let's say April is impossible, cause year will change from 22 to 23.

Do you see what mess are your arguments? You know why? BECAUSE NO ONE BESIDE BLIZZ HAS DAMN CLUE. Trying to solve this puzzle with 10 unknowns always create chaos. Sorry for caps.

[prunusek]

At this point I don't know what the hell is your point. For some reason you assumed expansions are planned to release every 2 years every time. Then you compare WoW to annual AC. After I point out not every year had AC, for some reason it's not important, important thing is every AC releases in Q4. But not every WoW expansion releases in same quarter, last 10 years we had December-September-November-August-August-November releases. Looks like planning to release expac every two years doesn't work well, huh? But in your world "moving" release from August to November is possible, but moving date from November to let's say April is impossible, cause year will change from 22 to 23.

Do you see what mess are your arguments? You know why? BECAUSE NO ONE BESIDE BLIZZ HAS DAMN CLUE. Trying to solve this puzzle with 10 unknowns always create chaos. Sorry for caps.

Did you forget about The Burning Crusade release date ?

January 16 2007

TBC was delayed because it wasn't ready to launch in Q4 of 2006. I know it was long time ago and Blizzard wasn't at that time under Acti/Blizz umbrella but there it is still a precedent to launch expansion in Q1 2023.

[Wangming]

Uhm, sure? I’ve already exclaimed why ya invading the Maw doesn’t mean shit

Doesn't it? For you maybe, but that's not how a narrative works.

We are at the enemy's dorstep what are we going to do? I know, let's explore the cosmological significance of the place we are in. Let's hunt for secrets and shit.

Neat idea, agreed, but it is a bit too late for that.

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9.1: We’re invading the Maw, we’re heavily abusing the Oribos port stone, we most likely lose, the Jailer uses the port stone...

9.2: The Jailer teleports to the other Shadowlands’ zones and eventually Oribos, in Oribos he kills the Arbiter (or whatever) and teleports to Azeroth, we fight him in Azeroth on top of Icecrown, Anduin becomes the new Arbiter (or Arthas? Who knows) - end of the Jailer storyline.

Plots like Garrosh in the Shadowlands? Interesting, but who cares.

Yeah. He gets it. The fluff will be explored in comics, novels short videos and lorebooks. From a narrative standpoint we are prepairing for the final push. Blizzard won't break this flow to explore side stories.