Dragonflight Alpha/Beta General Discussion

[Relapses]

Size doesn’t determine quality but it does determine retention. It’s also a pretty large size with simple random sampling thanks to adding randoms in instances and outdoor content. Of the ~500 only 20 are guildmates and longtime friends. The rest are newcomers, pugs, players that needed help outdoors, etc.

It stops becoming anecdotal when you can replicate surveying players in game and count accounts and perform longitudinal tests.

Edit: Margin of error is a thing.

Daily reminder that the plural of anecdote is still not data.

[Polybius]

Daily reminder that the plural of anecdote is still not data.

Just a hint that anecdotes cannot be verified through experiment. Retention rates most certainly can, they’re quantitative.

[Osmeric]

Any reliable numbers for your claim? I don't see 90% less players. Over the last year a whooping three of my b.net-friends stopped playing and that was all because of work or perosnal reasons.

A while ago Blizzard stated that 100 M+ people had played the game at one point or another. And right now, the numbers is a few million.

- - - Updated - - -

Let me get this straight. Your solution to casual players leaving, is to make the game more exclusive, and hard?

That's a bold strategy cotton, lets see if it pays off.

I know, right? It's like the people making these suggestions have no sanity filter between their subconscious and their typing fingers.

[Relapses]

Just a hint that anecdotes cannot be verified through experiment. Retention rates most certainly can, they’re quantitative.

You literally cannot determine the retention data of a video game with millions of fucking subscribers based off of a sample size that is, at best, 200 players.

[username993720]

Yeah, the race that is most known for cutting down Ashenvale get the Druid class. What's next? Goblin Druids? Lightforged warlocks? Dream on :P

https://wowpedia.fandom.com/wiki/Rala_Wildheart#Notes

[Osmeric]

No, as making every content hard would make the ultra casuals who like no challenge leave. Add more difficulties to the game.

No. This wouldn't work. The casuals leave because they correctly recognize that they are second (or lower) class citizens. The disdain of the devs leaks through in everything they do. Who wants to send $$$ to people who despise you? Adding more difficulties just enlarges the caste system.

The solution is for the new corporate owners to clean house, hose down all the residue of hardcore preference, and refocus the game from the ground up on the casual players -- and ONLY on the casual players. Others might get a bone thrown to them, but in a way that clearly tells them they are the minority.

[Polybius]

You literally cannot determine the retention data of a video game with millions of fucking subscribers based off of a sample size that is, at best, 200 players.

It’s a population sample.

I mean, you honestly expect someone, even a Statistician, to gather a size of thousands? That’s what stats methods are for, to test a pop. based on samples.

Feel free to report your own findings. The more lists that can be compared the clearer the picture.

I only started collecting and marking activity when people started saying WoW was dying for every little thing (late MoP). I wanted to see if that was true (it really isn’t, players come back and go as usual but less have come back).

I will say though, popular as Legion may have been, it wasn’t as played as Cata or MoP. Blizzard said Legion was fastest selling, but not most sold. Digital copies sell easier. Nuance is everything. They can’t strive for WorLK numbers anymore.

[Aeluron Lightsong]

https://wowpedia.fandom.com/wiki/Rala_Wildheart#Notes

No

Nelf paladins or riot

[Lorgar Aurelian]

No, it is no "normal development", if a MMORPG expansion launches, and 60% of its players leave after the first month. An expansion could bring the novelty a new game does. It just does not, as the developers do not know how to do it.

Also, no, FFXIV does not see a massive hype and a massive sub loss.

I mean FFXIV has had like 4 million made accounts in the last 6 or so months on top of there 23 or so other million accounts yet likely haven’t broken 3M concurrent subs.

The expans them self might not have big hype then big loss but the game over all this year surely has.

[Relapses]

It’s a population sample.

I mean, you honestly expect someone, even a Statistician, to gather a size of thousands? That’s what stats methods are for, to test a pop. based on samples.

Feel free to report your own findings. The more lists that can be compared the clearer the picture.

I only started collecting and marking activity when people started saying WoW was dying for every little thing (late MoP). I wanted to see if that was true (it really isn’t, players come back and go as usual but less have come back).

I will say though, popular as Legion may have been, it wasn’t as played as Cata or MoP. Blizzard said Legion was fastest selling, but not most sold. Digital copies sell easier. Nuance is everything. They can’t strive for WorLK numbers anymore.

The point remains -- the sample size you're insisting is too small to make a macro approximation for the entire game. I'm not disputing the very real fact that the game doesn't have nearly as many subscribers now as it did in the past; just that the method you're using is far too prone to individual circumstances to make any reasonable extrapolation from.

[NikolaiShade]

No

Nelf paladins or riot

Totally agree

[Raetary]

Nelf paladins or riot

Unless they come prepackaged with Lunar spell effects and animations, no thank you.
I'd rather have literally anything else.

[Osmeric]

Im convinced half of you arent casual but just bad at the game and mad that the bar for personal skill is higher than in the past and that dead weight is way heavier than it used to be.

Of course. Most casual players are bad at the game, compared to the high achievement players. This in no way implies it's ok for the devs to treat them like shit. The game is not some sort of moral engine whose purpose is to reward virtue; it's an entertainment product whose purpose is to make money.

[Polybius]

The point remains -- the sample size you're insisting is too small to make a macro approximation for the entire game. I'm not disputing the very real fact that the game doesn't have nearly as many subscribers now as it did in the past; just that the method you're using is far too prone to individual circumstances to make any reasonable extrapolation from.

I’m using the same method anyone has at their disposal. It’s not self-reported as in WoW sites, it’s still random and varied enough. The sample is used to measure pop. as I said before.

It’s not entirely accurate, but closest enough considering realm and guild sizes. No one else replying has compared notes or done their own homework except attempt to call it anecdotal evidence, so i’ll just carry on with some good laughs.

[Relapses]

I’m using the same method anyone has at their disposal. It’s not self-reported as in WoW sites, it’s still random and varied enough. The sample is used to measure pop. as I said before.

It’s not entirely accurate, but closest enough considering realm and guild sizes. No one else replying has compared notes or done their own homework except attempt to call it anecdotal evidence, so i’ll just carry on with some good laughs.

I mean, the guy you originally replied to gave you the perfect counter. Some people's friends lists haven't changed at all. Some have. It's just... very unscientific and incredibly napkin-y for it to be used to draw any real conclusions about the state of the population in WoW.

[Hellspawn]

Unless they come prepackaged with Lunar spell effects and animations, no thank you.
I'd rather have literally anything else.

Same, they would need their own lore that is based on Night Elf Elune lore.

[Slowpoke is a Gamer]

Geeze did something happen to spawn 5 pages overnight or are we just going back and forth on the 9.2 date still?

[Polybius]

Well, the very bad players currently are the ones playing the dead stupid world content. The very good players are the other ones which play raids or mythic+. Anything between these two extremes is having no fun with the game.

It’s a shame. If Mythic+ didn’t have the timers friends and I would enjoy it more. Instead we wait for mega dungeons. Too burnt out from raiding and m+.

I mean, the guy you originally replied to gave you the perfect counter. Some people's friends lists haven't changed at all. Some have. It's just... very unscientific and incredibly napkin-y for it to be used to draw any real conclusions about the state of the population in WoW.

Yes, sampling hundreds, a generous amount for any game in the industry, a ‘friends’ list no sane player has, is unscientific. I’ll be sure to share this. I’ll also keep in mind that large sample sizes cannot be extrapolated.

[Polybius]

Geeze did something happen to spawn 5 pages overnight or are we just going back and forth on the 9.2 date still?

Speculation on next week’s announcement from Mike Ybarra’s letter. Blizzconline’s presentations are also due any time between now and late Feb so both coincide a little.

Edit: Sorry, the cancelled* Blizzconline presentations.

[Dracullus]

Geeze did something happen to spawn 5 pages overnight or are we just going back and forth on the 9.2 date still?

Mike teased some big stuff for next week.