Biden / Harris Focused Discussion

[Felya]

out of interest what flavour of left wing are you? I cant work it out by your posts.

His solution for democrats to get the bill they need, is a coup... so... reactionary.

Edit: The ‘can’t be facetious‘ flavor of left wing... lol

[sandstill]

speaking of zero credibility arent you the multi burner who said they had six figures on a trump win and that you spent 20 years studying political polling and betting markets?

Yes I had six figures on a Trump win which I hedged on election night when he went ahead, making a small fortune. As most intelligent people did-JP Morgan came out with a report months before the election predicting exactly what happened with the voting distribution. Maybe listen more and talk less. It is actually 25 years btw.

Btw What are your expert credentials exactly?

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Fact checking isn't trolling, hun.

And therein is the crux of the issue; the right wing has decided to politicise truth itself (vis a vis "alternative facts") and mainline bad faith arguments (see "climate change doesn't exist because I have a snowball"). So by virtue of them believing more blatantly counterfactual things and having a greater tendency for fallacious or bad faith arguments, they get dinged by fact checkers and moderators more often, which is then in turn interpreted as moderator bias.

All because the Republican Party got coopted by internet grifters and its voters can't own up to having been conned. *sad trombone*

You left out the part about the Republican's having this crazy obsession with unaffordable military expenditure and multiple wars, as well as a tendency to dramatically increase social inequality while taking backhanders from Wall St. And do weird rapey stuff with various women yet never seem to go to jail. And being systemically corrupt. You know why you left those things out? Because the corporate democrats do the exact same shit.

(Cue posts of the "you must be a Trump supporter because you think the democrats are almost as bad" variety)

[Felya]

Yes I had six figures on a Trump win which I hedged on election night when he went ahead, making a small fortune. As most intelligent people did-JP Morgan came out with a report months before the election predicting exactly what happened. Maybe listen more and talk less. It is actually 25 years btw.

Btw What are your expert credentials exactly?

How much did you put on Biden to make a small fortune?

[jonnysensible]

Yes I had six figures on a Trump win which I hedged on election night when he went ahead, making a small fortune. As most intelligent people did-JP Morgan came out with a report months before the election predicting exactly what happened with the voting distribution. Maybe listen more and talk less. It is actually 25 years btw.

Btw What are your expert credentials exactly?

Need a shovel boy? all that digging.

lets face it you are a massive liar. its a good thing your posts always get deleted, months of saying trump will win and then you get to gaslight afterwards. post some evidence then lad.

[Felya]

Need a shovel boy? all that digging.

lets face it you are a massive liar. its a good thing your posts always get deleted, months of saying trump will win and then you get to gaslight afterwards. post some evidence then lad.

Hedging a bet for the same outcome you initially bet on, is called doubling down. He just claimed, without realizing it, that he doubled down on Trump, when he saw Trump lead on Election Day... to make a fortune... How do you make a fortune on Trump winning, when he lost?

Edit: For him to make money while hedging a bet on Trump, is to bet on Biden... You don’t hedge, by doubling down... those have opposite meanings... lol

[sandstill]

Need a shovel boy? all that digging.

lets face it you are a massive liar. its a good thing your posts always get deleted, months of saying trump will win and then you get to gaslight afterwards. post some evidence then lad.

OK let me explain how gambling works Jonny. You assign a relative probability to something based on your subjective judgement and you multiply by the payout. If you have a positive expectation its a good bet. It doesn't matter whether you win or lose in the short term, your long run results will converge on the expected result.

Professional gamblers/traders make many losing bets but they win more on average than they lose.

Clearly in this case the value bet was on Trump, the polls massively understated his vote share.

It is amusing that you think those who lost money betting on the value proposition are worthy of ridicule when their judgement was essentially vindicated regardless of the actual result. The thing I could be criticized for is closing out the bet since it is more questionable whether Biden was a value proposition, but you are completely clueless about the whole issue so you missed that opportunity.

[Shalcker]

Hedging a bet for the same outcome you initially bet on, is called doubling down. He just claimed, without realizing it, that he doubled down on Trump, when he saw Trump lead on Election Day... to make a fortune... How do you make a fortune on Trump winning, when he lost?

Edit: For him to make money while hedging a bet on Trump, is to bet on Biden... You don’t hedge, by doubling down... those have opposite meanings... lol

Generally "hedging" is exact opposite of what you imply - not doubling down but instead making exact opposite bet but at a better price then if you would bet that way right away - and then pocketing the difference no matter the outcome.

[Felya]

Generally "hedging" is exact opposite of what you imply - not doubling down but instead making exact opposite bet but at a better price then if you would bet that way right away.

I’m not the one who used it to double down... lol

Edit: Why do you think I am asking how much he bet on Biden? Respond to him, not me... let’s see if you do...

[jonnysensible]

OK let me explain how gambling works Jonny. You assign a relative probability to something based on your subjective judgement and you multiply by the payout. If you have a positive expectation its a good bet. It doesn't matter whether you win or lose in the short term, your long run results will converge on the expected result.

Professional gamblers/traders make many losing bets but they win more on average than they lose.

Clearly in this case the value bet was on Trump, the polls massively understated his vote share.

It is amusing that you think those who lost money betting on the value proposition are worthy of ridicule when their judgement was essentially vindicated regardless of the actual result. The thing I could be criticized for is closing out the bet since it is more questionable whether Biden was a value proposition, but you are completely clueless about the whole issue so you missed that opportunity.

trump was odds on for a fucking age there was no value in a less than evens bet, you telling me you put 6 figures on trump at what 1.8? and thats a value bet?

what bookie did you use friend?

[sandstill]

Hedging a bet for the same outcome you initially bet on, is called doubling down. He just claimed, without realizing it, that he doubled down on Trump, when he saw Trump lead on Election Day... to make a fortune... How do you make a fortune on Trump winning, when he lost?

Edit: For him to make money while hedging a bet on Trump, is to bet on Biden... You don’t hedge, by doubling down... those have opposite meanings... lol

It is not difficult to understand. You bet Trump pre-election. Then you bet Biden when Trump pulls ahead, locking in a profit whatever happens.

That Trump would pull ahead was widely predicted in the media. I think Jonny is just sore he missed the betting opportunity of a lifetime. This wasn't even that difficult to figure out like the 2016 bias with Trump voters was.

[Felya]

It is not difficult to understand. You bet Trump pre-election. Then you bet Biden when Trump pulls ahead, locking in a profit whatever happens.

That Trump would pull ahead was widely predicted in the media. I think Jonny is just sore he missed the betting opportunity of a lifetime. This wasn't even that difficult to figure out like the 2016 bias with Trump voters was.

I already asked, how much did you bet on Biden to win? We know it’s 6 figures on Trump, was the hedge also 6 figures?

[Shalcker]

I’m not the one who used it to double down... lol

Edit: Why do you think I am asking how much he bet on Biden? Respond to him, not me... let’s see if you do...

Btw, can you finally respond if you are or aren't fine with Biden having people in his cabinet that consider "stealing the oil" as one of solutions to US problems?

[Felya]

Btw, can you finally respond if you are or aren't fine with Biden having people in his cabinet that consider "stealing the oil" as one of solutions to US problems?

Yes, like 3 times I said yes and explained why... Unless you are ready to reply on how this will impact Biden’s transition from oil, something you admitted not knowing anything about, despite his policy page, the debates and the massive controversy as a result... stop pretending I didn’t answer... it’s the 4th time I did and you have yet to stop asking... if not spreading misinformation, what is the point of this? How many times do I have to say ‘yes’ and explain?

Does your script not have a chapter on my reply or are you stuck on repeate?

/iisreset

[sandstill]

trump was odds on for a fucking age there was no value in a less than evens bet

what bookie did you use friend?

No intelligent gambler uses bookies for this type of bet. They take an arm and a leg in vigorish. Every sophisticated gambler uses betfair or other exchange.

Trump was significantly less than evens before polling no matter who you bet with.

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I already asked, how much did you bet on Biden to win? We know it’s 6 figures on Trump, was the hedge also 6 figures?

Biden was 4/1 after the initial votes came in for Trump, so obviously you need significantly less to hedge the bet. Math.

[jonnysensible]

No intelligent gambler uses bookies for this type of bet. They take an arm and a leg in vigorish. Every sophisticated gambler uses betfair or other exchange.

Trump was significantly less than evens before polling no matter who you bet with.

cool stick a screenshot of your bet up, youve made it over 10 posts so you can do that now.

[Felya]

Biden was 4/1 after the initial votes came in for Trump, so obviously you need significantly less to hedge the bet. Math.

That’s not answer... How much did you bet on Biden to win?

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cool stick a screenshot of your bet up, youve made it over 10 posts so you can do that now.

Math, baby!!!!! lol

[sandstill]

cool stick a screenshot of your bet up, youve made it over 10 posts so you can do that now.

I don't really care what you think either way Jonny. I'm not going to jump through hoops for you.

[Felya]

I don't really care what you think either way Jonny. I'm not going to jump through hoops for you.

Well, answering how much you bet on Biden, when it won you a fortune, compensating for 6 figures you lost on Trump... should be easy to remember...

[jonnysensible]

I don't really care what you think either way Jonny. I'm not going to jump through hoops for you.

ayyy here it is, you are full of it

a complete fantasist

[sandstill]

ayyy here it is, you are full of it

Well I'm sorry I disappointed you Jonny I'll just to have to try to live with the shame of your disapproval.....