Biden / Harris Focused Discussion

[Omega10]

And ultimately… so what if gas prices are higher?

People have had decades to buy more fuel efficient vehicles. Politicians have had decades to push for more efficient infrastructure.

On a practical note, gas first hit the $3.00 mark in 2006, according to the graph that Zantis displayed a few pages back.

So gas is about the same nominal cost as 15 years ago, which in practical terms in inflation adjusted dollars it means that gas has decreased in price since then. It would be surprising if gas prices declined much from current prices moving forward. There are predictions of $100 a barrel oil in the next few months. At this point, I think this will come to pass. If fracking is slow to recover, which is likely for reasons discussed previously in this thread, then it will likely stabilize somewhere above $100 a barrel. Which would be somewhere around what $3.50 to $4.00 a gallon for gasoline in the US?

The only thing that might stop it is if the next virus wave is as bad as last years or worse. In that case, well the good news is that cheap gas would be back!

[Argentdawn]

The only thing that might stop it is if the next virus wave is as bad as last years or worse. In that case, well the good news is that cheap gas would be back!

Gas was cheap before the Pandemic.

[Zan15]

On a practical note, gas first hit the $3.00 mark in 2006, according to the graph that Zantis displayed a few pages back.

So gas is about the same nominal cost as 15 years ago, which in practical terms in inflation adjusted dollars it means that gas has decreased in price since then. It would be surprising if gas prices declined much from current prices moving forward. There are predictions of $100 a barrel oil in the next few months. At this point, I think this will come to pass. If fracking is slow to recover, which is likely for reasons discussed previously in this thread, then it will likely stabilize somewhere above $100 a barrel. Which would be somewhere around what $3.50 to $4.00 a gallon for gasoline in the US?

The only thing that might stop it is if the next virus wave is as bad as last years or worse. In that case, well the good news is that cheap gas would be back!

Nah opec will open the production up starting in the next month is my guess. Though the negation's are wobbly.
I also expect Russia to start increasing too.
Frackers are gambling again, holding off increases hoping for a huge spike to 100+. I hope they all lose even more money greedy fuckers.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/05/oil-...nd-allies.html

[Kellhound]

Yeah it's massively larger than either.

With a much smaller population and a easier goal of returning to a balance that has worked there for significant time.

[Zan15]

Gas was cheap before the Pandemic.

No it wasn't. 2018 and 2019 when adjusted for inflation was in range of what it is today with some variances by locality.


https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/Le...te_nus_dpg&f=m

[Orange Joe]

No it wasn't. 2018 and 2019 when adjusted for inflation was in range of what it is today with some variances by locality.


https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/Le...te_nus_dpg&f=m

April, May and June all have gas around/below the $2 mark. That is effectively when measures for the pandemic started. Not sure why you are pointing to 2018/19

It was also around the same price in 2010.

[Kellhound]

You don't need a condition, its just fact.
Just because other people also made the mistake does not make it right.

Sigh.... When people discuss "highest/lowest price ever/since (at date)" they are almost universally discussing it in absolute amounts, not constant dollar amounts. If they are discussing constant dollar comparisons, they will condition it with "in constant dollars" or "adjusted for inflation".

"Other people" are the likes of Bloomberg, Financial Times, and Barrons....

[Zan15]

April, May and June all have gas around/below the $2 mark. That is effectively when measures for the pandemic started. Not sure why you are pointing to 2018/19

It was also around the same price in 2010.

huh?

Why would I compare April's gas prices to June? You know how gas and gas pricing works right? You understand seasonal requirements right?

Why would I compare a complete shut down and crashing of an economy to today?



I was responding to what He said

Originally Posted by Argentdawn
Gas was cheap before the Pandemic.

Before the pandemic was before March 2020

The last appropriate comparison would be June 2021 v 2019 v 2018.

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Sigh.... When people discuss "highest/lowest price ever/since (at date)" they are almost universally discussing it in absolute amounts, not constant dollar amounts. If they are discussing constant dollar comparisons, they will condition it with "in constant dollars" or "adjusted for inflation".

"Other people" are the likes of Bloomberg, Financial Times, and Barrons....

Right and that is what makes it wrong.

Not sure I understand the problem here. Is it just unwillingness to admit that the comparison is often done wrong and was done wrong here??

[Orange Joe]

snip

So you are saying the covid-19 had 0 effect on gas prices? I call BS we can look at 2019 and not see the same fluctuations for "seasonal requirements"

[Zan15]

So you are saying the covid-19 had 0 effect on gas prices? I call BS we can look at 2019 and not see the same fluctuations for "seasonal requirements"

Not at all.

i am saying you cannot realistically compare covid period prices to any other period like today or 2019 or 2018.


Again I am comparing gas prices today to 2019 and 2018 because that is an appropriate comparison and stating that gas prices are in fact not realistically that much different then its been over the last 3 years outside of the huge Covid-Outlier.



maybe we are getting our lines crossed here?

[Kellhound]

huh?

Why would I compare April's gas prices to June? You know how gas and gas pricing works right? You understand seasonal requirements right?

Why would I compare a complete shut down and crashing of an economy to today?



I was responding to what He said



Before the pandemic was before March 2020

The last appropriate comparison would be June 2021 v 2019 v 2018.

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Right and that is what makes it wrong.

Not sure I understand the problem here. Is it just unwillingness to admit that the comparison is often done wrong and was done wrong here??

Just because you want it to be wrong does not make it so. The people that state it the way I agree with have more credibility than you when it comes to this anyway.

[Zan15]

Just because you want it to be wrong does not make it so. The people that state it the way I agree with have more credibility than you when it comes to this anyway.

I don't want it to be wrong, I just know it is because of inflation.

You can't accurately compare prices of items from year to year without some adjustments.

If average gas price hits 4.20 it will still not be anywhere near the most expensive ever, though that is the way it will be reported "by the people that have more credibility...." because they have to dumb it down for the general population.

You can be right or you can just settle for half the picture.

Most reliable sources will print the headline "highest gas prices ever" but they will in the details mention that if you adjust its not quite the most "expensive" ever.

[Orange Joe]

Not at all.

i am saying you cannot realistically compare covid period prices to any other period like today or 2019 or 2018.


Again I am comparing gas prices today to 2019 and 2018 because that is an appropriate comparison and stating that gas prices are in fact not realistically that much different then its been over the last 3 years outside of the huge Covid-Outlier.



maybe we are getting our lines crossed here?

My bad, I think it was more just me reading what you were saying wrong.

[Kellhound]

I don't want it to be wrong, I just know it is because of inflation.

You can't accurately compare prices of items from year to year without some adjustments.

If average gas price hits 4.20 it will still not be anywhere near the most expensive ever, though that is the way it will be reported "by the people that have more credibility...." because they have to dumb it down for the general population.

You can be right or you can just settle for half the picture.

Most reliable sources will print the headline "highest gas prices ever" but they will in the details mention that if you adjust its not quite the most "expensive" ever.

You are confusing two different metrics concerning costs, absolute and relative. This discussion was about absolutes, not relatives. That is because when discussing the price of gas, that is by far the most common metric used.

[Omega10]

You are confusing two different metrics concerning costs, absolute and relative. This discussion was about absolutes, not relatives. That is because when discussing the price of gas, that is by far the most common metric used.

Oh I thought you were correctly accusing the "other sources" of basically lying.

You were saying that what they say is the truth, even when it leaves out very important details.

[Draco-Onis]

With a much smaller population and a easier goal of returning to a balance that has worked there for significant time.

The population is around 40 million which is smaller than Germany's 70 million at the time however Afghanistan's infrastructure is either outdated or non existent. You also have to take into account the larger geographical challenges not to mention building a stable food and distribution network. Again if you think a country of that size and state can be brought up to par in under a decade you are delusional.

The United States does not specialize in building things, if you haven't read any of the leaked papers we are really bad at cost control and time management due to our heavy reliance on contractors. Heck even locally we can't do things like China can like build a large hospital in a matter of days.

[Kellhound]

Oh I thought you were correctly accusing the "other sources" of basically lying.

You were saying that what they say is the truth, even when it leaves out very important details.

They are not leaving an "important" detail out. They are discussing a story in the manner that most people in the US discuss gas prices, in absolute terms.

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The population is around 40 million which is smaller than Germany's 70 million at the time however Afghanistan's infrastructure is either outdated or non existent. You also have to take into account the larger geographical challenges not to mention building a stable food and distribution network. Again if you think a country of that size and state can be brought up to par in under a decade you are delusional.

The United States does not specialize in building things, if you haven't read any of the leaked papers we are really bad at cost control and time management due to our heavy reliance on contractors. Heck even locally we can't do things like China can like build a large hospital in a matter of days.

You are assuming that the entire country would need to be brought up to the same standard, which it is not ready for, nor does it want.

[Draco-Onis]

You are assuming that the entire country would need to be brought up to the same standard, which it is not ready for, nor does it want.

We've never managed to do it on our own, your vaunted example of Germany and Japan was a worldwide effort. Again Afghanistan is not Germany or Japan there was never a good justification for invading or staying or rebuilding. All you have to do is look at the current state of "building" we aren't good at it heck we can't even train their forces properly.

[Kellhound]

We've never managed to do it on our own, your vaunted example of Germany and Japan was a worldwide effort. Again Afghanistan is not Germany or Japan there was never a good justification for invading or staying or rebuilding. All you have to do is look at the current state of "building" we aren't good at it heck we can't even train their forces properly.

We also don't really try to to it either. But this is going nowhere.

[Zan15]

You are confusing two different metrics concerning costs, absolute and relative. This discussion was about absolutes, not relatives. That is because when discussing the price of gas, that is by far the most common metric used.

I don't disagree with you on most common.
But come on when discussing here you should be beyond the common and on to the detailed and more accurate, would you not agree?

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They are not leaving an "important" detail out. They are discussing a story in the manner that most people in the US discuss gas prices, in absolute terms.

.

They are leaving out a VERY IMPORTANT detail that would allow people to make educated decisions and understand what is really happening to gas prices (and its not just gas prices).
Again, most of the "better" publications and sources will in fact not leave out this important detail.


seems in the age of everyone being so worried about...fake outrage....inflation all of a sudden that everyone at this point would understand it.