Biden / Harris Focused Discussion

[Omega10]

As the Trump Presidency winds down, I actually am anxious to stop even thinking about him because unless something really weird happens, he will stop being relevant.

Biden and Harris have their work cut out for them. Over 70 million people voted against him, and many are vocal about their hatred for him. It looks like McConnell will once again work to make a democratic President a one-term President, and if he follows Trump's lead (and he may have to if his base gets too out of hand), he will go to pretty far extremes to sabotage things so that republicans have things to blame Biden for in 2022 and 2024.

The international reputation of the US is at rock bottom. And the world knows that since we voted in Trump for President in 2016, we certainly can double down on someone like Trump or even much worse in 2024 or 2028. The fact that Trump was not removed from office when he was impeached, and the fact that Trump's attempts to steal the 2020 election have not landed him in jail (or at least forcibly removed from office) are two huge strikes against the US and reasons for the rest of the world to keep us at arms length.

The virus will be very bad by the time January 21 rolls around. The vaccine might be all that it is cracked up to be and the virus might just disappear. Or, it may turn out that the reason that the CDC is trying to get blacks and other minorities to get the drug first is so blacks and minorities will be the guinea pigs to resolve any remaining issues rather than whites. The virus is a huge wild card for 2021, and if you were to predict the number of daily cases in the US next September, on the low side would be ... well it could be zero, or single or double digits, and on the high side it could be 5k deaths a day. Makes it a bit tough to plan things. Biden / Harris will have to be very flexible in what they say and what they do, and all along a huge part of the country will be looking for things to hate them for.

One thing Trump did a fabulous job of: there are more economic triggers that are ready to explode in early 2021. The current stimulus runs out in a month, and many people will be just plain flat broke in January. Homelessness could very well increase rapidly. Landlords could find that after evicting people that haven't paid rent in half a year that their places just remain unoccupied. Trump really did run the deficit up to numbers that no one thought possible after Obama's term. US companies are decoupling from China by moving production and stay-at-home jobs to Asian countries that are not China. I guess this is an improvement. China is decoupling by creating chip industries and a new internet and a new operating system that will allow them to stop buying things from the US. And oh yeah some of this production will be exported, so instead of buying products from the US, they will be exporting their own products and competing with US companies all over the world. Climate change caused big problems this year in California withe their wildfires, and the Gulf States with so many hurricanes. Climate change is getting worse and worse bit by bit, just as predicted since around the 1980s. With the exception of California and hopefully a few other states, state budgets are very much in the red.

This is a lot of very difficult problems to deal with all at once. And I haven't even listed them all. Good luck to Biden / Harris. They will need it. And we need for them to be at least moderately successful.

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[Underverse]

Blacks and minorities are hit hardest by the virus because they have the highest burden of pre-existing conditions, low economic reserves, work manual jobs that don't allow them to work from home, and live in densely populated areas. It's odd that you put a conspiracy theory in the middle of that wall of text.

[Omega10]

Blacks and minorities are hit hardest by the virus because they have the highest burden of pre-existing conditions, low economic reserves, work manual jobs that don't allow them to work from home, and live in densely populated areas. It's odd that you put a conspiracy theory in the middle of that wall of text.

They also are most of the "essential workers" that end up working close together for long stretches of time. And if they get the virus - no problem, their position can be filled by someone else.

The old saying is "if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is". I hope I am wrong, but I am not convinced that the vaccine will live up to its hype. And I suppose that 2020 has made me a bit too quick to fear for the absolutely worst possible outcome in political situations.

We'll know how good the vaccines are in about 6 months. Fingers crossed.

[Ashleyxoxo]

There are vaccines now?

[Omega10]

There are vaccines now?

Internationally there are several from different countries. They are just starting to be used on the general public.

From what I can tell, mass production has already been begun so they will be ready for fairly large scale distribution as each gets its final approval.

The numbers I've seen is that starting in January, there will be 40 million doses of the vaccines produced monthly. I am not sure if this means 120 or 160 million if there are 3 or 4 approved vaccines, and some of them require 2 doses so that would cut the number of people vaccinated in half. It is also not clear is this is 40 million world wide or 40 million for the US with other countries getting their own vaccines.

The information I have seen has been piecemeal, so it is not clear what the overall situation is. The more optimistic assessments are that vaccines will start having a noticeable effect on the total number of cases and of deaths by around April.

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There are vaccines now?

OK I found an article with more information about the state of vaccines in the US.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/morgan-st...185550417.html

Title: Morgan Stanley predicts it will take 4 to 9 months to vaccinate the rest of the US after first responders and vulnerable people

Excerpt:


General Information:

Two COVID-19 vaccines, one made by Moderna, another by Pfizer and BioNTech, announced promising results from their Phase 3 trials this week.

Moderna announced that its vaccine was 94.5% effective on Monday, and Pfizer/BioNTech announced that their vaccine was 95% effective on Wednesday.

Assuming that one or both of the vaccines receive emergency approval from the FDA, first responders and vulnerable populations will receive vaccines through March, a new analysis from Morgan Stanley predicts.

After that, the rest of the US population will begin to be vaccinated, a process that Morgan Stanley predicts will take four to nine months.

Predicted Timeline:

After vaccinating first responders and vulnerable populations like the elderly, it will take four to nine months to vaccinate the rest of the US, Morgan Stanley predicted in a report published Friday.

Vaccinating the general population will likely last from spring of 2021 to winter of 2021, Morgan Stanley analysts forecasted.

This seems more realistic. April is when general vaccinations are predicted to start, and it will take until anywhere from September to December to mostly finish the job.

My take away is: by April, vaccines will have just a small reduction in the number of cases. The reduction will steadily rise throughout the year. Or at least that is what Morgan Stanley seems to be predicting.

There is no discussion about vaccines for people in other countries.

[Xeones]

The big question I have is what all is Trump going to do to sabotage the Biden administration. There is already a great deal of work to do and he seems pretty set on giving them more before he is finally out.

[TheramoreIsTheBomb]

I wonder if Joe Biden will step down during his 4/8 years and let Kamala succeed him?

[Dakhath]

I don't see Biden running again even if he has a good presidency.

[Kaleredar]

The big question I have is what all is Trump going to do to sabotage the Biden administration. There is already a great deal of work to do and he seems pretty set on giving them more before he is finally out.

I assume that Biden and co. are preparing for having to rapidly get up to speed. And I'm sure that his experience not only in the actual WH, but also the likely huge breath of fresh air his... general competence... brings in stark contrast to Trump will help convince various (non-republican commanded) government agencies to work as quickly and easily with him as possible.

As for any Executive orders or inflammatory international dealings Trump might try over the next two months... I'd imagine most of them could be done away with the stroke of Biden's pen. I may be misremembering , but I believe someone in another thread noted that they were compiling a list of all the Executive Orders they were overturning on the first day.

[Omega10]

I wonder if Joe Biden will step down during his 4/8 years and let Kamala succeed him?

Like Dakhath, I also can't imagine Biden running for reelection in 2024 at age... 82 right?

I can see him stepping down in say 2023 setting up a smooth transition from Biden to Harris. The other possibility would be that he goes the full 4 years and then chooses not to run. There will be so much change between now and 2023 that there really is no way to predict.

On a practical note, if 2023 is a fabulously successful year for the United States, then I could see him running for reelection by popular demand.

[PACOX]

I wonder if Joe Biden will step down during his 4/8 years and let Kamala succeed him?

If he isn't going to go for reelection (which he shouldn't) he should at least give it to her his last year.

The GOP would definitely pull a move like that, for different reasons.

[Xeones]

I assume that Biden and co. are preparing for having to rapidly get up to speed. And I'm sure that his experience not only in the actual WH, but also the likely huge breath of fresh air his... general competence... brings in stark contrast to Trump will help convince various (non-republican commanded) government agencies to work as quickly and easily with him as possible.

As for any Executive orders or inflammatory international dealings Trump might try over the next two months... I'd imagine most of them could be done away with the stroke of Biden's pen. I may be misremembering , but I believe someone in another thread noted that they were compiling a list of all the Executive Orders they were overturning on the first day.

I'm sure he is ready to go, but I just keep hearing the news repeat that 9-11 report that says the 2000 election problems might have had a part to play and Trump hasn't exactly done a good job when it comes to national security and there are concerns about what he is going to do in the middle east in the next 2 months.

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I wonder if Joe Biden will step down during his 4/8 years and let Kamala succeed him?

I don't understand the obsession republicans have with this talking point.

[Omega10]

I assume that Biden and co. are preparing for having to rapidly get up to speed. And I'm sure that his experience not only in the actual WH, but also the likely huge breath of fresh air his... general competence... brings in stark contrast to Trump will help convince various (non-republican commanded) government agencies to work as quickly and easily with him as possible.

As for any Executive orders or inflammatory international dealings Trump might try over the next two months... I'd imagine most of them could be done away with the stroke of Biden's pen. I may be misremembering , but I believe someone in another thread noted that they were compiling a list of all the Executive Orders they were overturning on the first day.

I am cautiously optimistic that this comes to fruition. And since the business community as well as the more mainstream press are both already accusing Trump of economic sabotage, not only will it be harder for Trump to pull off stunts in January, but Biden will be given extra benefit of the doubt as he undoes Trump's damage and starts the Biden era.

[PACOX]

The big question I have is what all is Trump going to do to sabotage the Biden administration. There is already a great deal of work to do and he seems pretty set on giving them more before he is finally out.

I don't think Trump knows enough about how the system works to do much but the equivalent of flipping tables and breaking windows. Stuff that's a pain in the ass to clean up but easily fixable.

Should the GOP win the Senate they are going to be on that ass though. They are going to be playing the to take both chambers under a Democrat, which they are very good at doing. Biden is going to be forced to make a ton of EOs, which they can't play to their advantage, or he is going to have to be 90s Biden who plays nice with the GOP, which they will use to split Democratic voters.

Democrats lack a media apparatus that looks looks put for the whole party instead a few that only cater to specific factions within the party. The GOP is great at controlling narratives because they will come together in a heartbeat to win a seat.

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I don't understand the obsession republicans have with this talking point.

Because it is something they would do. Harris would be a though candidate to be beat assuming she plays her position well enough once in the spotlight.

Left but safely for moderates. Left enough for progressives 'fuck it' and vote for her as long she stays away from her past as an AG.

First black woman Indian President elected? And she would be ~60, not too young and not too old. Easy ticket.

[Omega10]

I don't think Trump knows enough about how the system works to do much but the equivalent of flipping tables and breaking windows. Stuff that's a pain in the ass to clean up but easily fixable.

Should the GOP win the Senate they are going to be on that ass though. They are going to be playing the to take both chambers under a Democrat, which they are very good at doing. Biden is going to be forced to make a ton of EOs, which they can't play to their advantage, or he is going to have to be 90s Biden who plays nice with the GOP, which they will use to split Democratic voters.

Democrats lack a media apparatus that looks looks put for the whole party instead a few that only cater to specific factions within the party. The GOP is great at controlling narratives because they will come together in a heartbeat to win a seat.

The upside if republicans take one of the Georgia Senate seats is that expectations will be much lower for Biden and the democrats. In this case, the effective actions that democrats would be able to pull off would be Executive Orders, and putting in competent people in the various federal agencies. This is not trivial.

And then what would be left for Biden and Pelosi to do would be to coordinate effective democratic messaging. As much as I'd like to see democrats move left and AOC get some good face time in all of this, the reality of the situation is that Trump got over 70 million votes. Presumably Biden and Pelosi would coordinate messaging with AOC to present a reasonably unified party front with always the eye on 2022. 2022 being a replay of 2010 would not be good.

[Kaleredar]

Because it is something they would do. Harris would be a though candidate to be beat assuming she plays her position well enough once in the spotlight.

Left but safely for moderates. Left enough for progressives 'fuck it' and vote for her as long she stays away from her past as an AG.

First black woman Indian President elected? And she would be ~60, not too young and not too old. Easy ticket.

Unfortunately, I think the republicans are likely going to try and smear Harris with the same pastiche they did Hillary.

There's an unfortunate deep-seeded... mistrust... or perhaps more accurately insecurity... in a non-negligible number of voters in which they have issues with strong-willed women in places of power.

Look at the hatred levied against Pelosi or Hillary or Omar or AOC. There isn't a single male Democrat that receives the amount of calumny or consternation those women do. Even during Obama's administration, the republicans had their scurrilous sights set on Hillary more than Obama himself.

Now that all will change over time, and having women like Harris being in greater positions of power and empowering more women to do the same will help change it. But in the short term, it's an unfortunate and I believe electorally significant prejudice a lot of voters have that would make Harris certainly not a "shoe in" in the next presidential race.

[Omega10]

Unfortunately, I think the republicans are likely going to try and smear Harris with the same pastiche they did Hillary.

There's an unfortunate deep-seeded... mistrust... or perhaps more accurately insecurity... in a non-negligible number of voters in which they have issues with strong-willed women in places of power.

Look at the hatred levied against Pelosi or Hillary or Omar or AOC. There isn't a single male Democrat that receives the amount of calumny or consternation those women do. Even during Obama's administration, the republicans had their scurrilous sights set on Hillary more than Obama himself.

Now that all will change over time, and having women like Harris being in greater positions of power and empowering more women to do the same will help change it. But in the short term, it's an unfortunate and I believe electorally significant prejudice a lot of voters have that would make Harris certainly not a "shoe in" in the next presidential race.

I really really wish I disagreed with anything that you said in this post.

[PACOX]

Unfortunately, I think the republicans are likely going to try and smear Harris with the same pastiche they did Hillary.

There's an unfortunate deep-seeded... mistrust... or perhaps more accurately insecurity... in a non-negligible number of voters in which they have issues with strong-willed women in places of power.

Look at the hatred levied against Pelosi or Hillary or Omar or AOC. There isn't a single male Democrat that receives the amount of calumny or consternation those women do. Even during Obama's administration, the republicans had their scurrilous sights set on Hillary more than Obama himself.

Now that all will change over time, and having women like Harris being in greater positions of power and empowering more women to do the same will help change it. But in the short term, it's an unfortunate and I believe electorally significant prejudice a lot of voters have that would make Harris certainly not a "shoe-in" in the next presidential race.

I don't disagree but I do think the best chance for Harris in 2024 is the administration to allow her to play a more prominent role than previous VPs. Perhaps to oversell her contributions (or to just let her contribute more as a VP). That way the US grows more 'accustomed' to a female President. You don't really need to win the hearts of Republicans, I would say thats a waste of time anyway, you need to motivate Democrats and NPAs to get to the polls.

[Omega10]

As far as I can tell, Biden wants to unite Americans and fix a lot of things, which is a very good intention, but it can't be done. US is too polarised for that and political system is designed to prevent changing status quo.

So basically he won't be able to do anything.

He won't be able to do anything about climate change, won't be able to do anything about Covid. Anything like reasonable healthcare will be quickly sabotaged by Republicans and end up being useless. Maybe will try to mend things with China, but won't be able to do that because half of politicians would block any attempts to do that and US military complex (actively selling arms on "China bad" fake news campaign) or UK (still butthurt over their former colony no longer belonging to UK, so UK do everything they can to sabotage it) might launch another fake news campaign and end up ruining anything Biden does.

Probably will go on anti-Russia offensive to revenge Hillary's loss (because of course it was Russians that made Trump win /s) and that's the only thing that he will be able to do in 4 years because Cold War mentality is still alive in US and is probably strongest in decades.

Meanwhile more and more countries will join free trade agreements with China, which, unlike agreements that involve US/UK, doesn't have political requirements and doesn't interfere in country's internal politics. Win for countries around the world, loss for US and allies that would still stick to US.

US in its current form is a lost cause. US ancient political system doesn't work in today's world and needs to be completely changed in its core. 2 party system that prevents anything from being done needs to be disbanded, Bible Belt states need to get a lot of education, but education has been commercialised in US to the point that it puts students in such massive debt that they can't get out of it for decades, so education is not something most people can afford, so majority will stay stupid and nothing will ever change.

If republicans take one of the Georgia Senate seats, then almost all of what you predict here seems inevitable.
If democrats take both (and thus the Senate), then democrats may make one or two of these predictions NOT come true.

My hope is that Biden is able to cool down the animosity in this country, get the virus mostly under control, and do good enough messaging so that 2022 ends up being a moderate to strong blue wave followed by some substantial successes in 2023. If, furthermore (let me dream!), in 2023 a dramatic success or two happens after Biden passes the torch to Harris so that the 2024 election is about peacefully keeping the momentum going with an uneventful Harris victory, then the US might actually resolve more than a few of the issues that you discussed and end up in a good place after 2023.

One reason I think a lot of your predictions will come to pass: making progress and changing things while dialing down the energy level of the electorate are not real compatible. And I remember republicans with their loud anti-Obamacare protests at each and every town hall meeting in Obama's first term. Town Halls stopped happening.

[Leobald]

I don't disagree but I do think the best chance for Harris in 2024 is the administration to allow her to play a more prominent role than previous VPs. Perhaps to oversell her contributions (or to just let her contribute more as a VP). That way the US grows more 'accustomed' to a female President. You don't really need to win the hearts of Republicans, I would say thats a waste of time anyway, you need to motivate Democrats and NPAs to get to the polls.

You already see this now. They sent out Harris to speak before Biden when they held their victory celebration after the networks had called the race.

I really don't remember happening something like that with previous President(-elect)s.