Mafia 127 - A Very Scary Christmas

[SatsuBL]

Not sure why Firebert lied about his role? Oh well. The existence of VT's has been confirmed! Thus, I trust Crackle.

Because this is a fake rolecard? Like how could Firebert be ever a VT this game?
And Val claimed too, right? What about him?

I'm going to hazard a guess and assume that every power role probably has an even and odd version.

Ok so who is odd day doublevoter because I didn't see and doublevotes on d1. Do you turn your power on and off or is it always active?

Maybe Firebert was trying to imitate Graeham a do a claim stunt, trying to bait a kill or gain trust from town or mess with scum or something.

Uh ok so Firebert guessed Lora's pumpkin smell at random. Because he was a VT elf that had a halloween jibe on a christmas game. Sure case closed.

[Val the Moofia Boss]

Uh ok so Firebert guessed Lora's pumpkin smell at random. Because he was a VT elf that had a halloween jibe on a christmas game. Sure case closed.

Please. He was obviously kidding. It was D1; people say random things.

Look at Firebert's flip. He had no powers and only had 1 present when he died. I only had 2 presents when I started the game, so unless the number is randomized for each player, I assume that Firebert had 2 as well. You need 5 presents for something to happen. If that something was a track ability, he couldn't have even used it because he would need to get 5 presents FIRST, which means at least one night would need to pass where 3 other players gave him 1 present each (not accounting for thefts from him). That would bring him up to 5, and thus on the next night he could hypothetically use his ability on Lora. Except Lora was lynched on D1...

Unless the mod is a lying bastard and he secretly had an ability that wasn't listed when he flipped, Firebert had no abilities and had no concrete info on Lora.

[Xanjori]

Because this is a fake rolecard? Like how could Firebert be ever a VT this game?

So you think on top of the cannibal murdering people, we're getting given fake rolecards on people we lynch too?

How the fuck would that be a playable game as town.

[Val the Moofia Boss]

Firebert was lucky that he made that tease, and the D1 lynchee he teased turned out to be scum. He played up that tease as if he had actual info.

[SatsuBL]

So you think on top of the cannibal murdering people, we're getting given fake rolecards on people we lynch too?

How the fuck would that be a playable game as town.

Maybe he was the cannibal and the rolecard was Mercys? Maybe his real rolecard said : If you die you flip VT. Doesn't make game bastardised if it did.

[Razamith]

is this a hardclaim / serious? Or do i need to add #justfirebertthings to my list?

The answer to both these questions is yes.

So #justfirebertthings

Perhaps, either that or the cannibal was blocked somehow.

If there is a cannibal kill blocked do you think that means a kill is missing N1? I still have my theory but this is two nights with 1 kill.

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Even night cannibal?

Technically it'd be odd night cannibal right? But yes this possibly too.

[listo95]

Maybe he was the cannibal and the rolecard was Mercys? Maybe his real rolecard said : If you die you flip VT. Doesn't make game bastardised if it did.

No... That kind of would make the game bastardized in my eyes. I'm not a huge fan of that theory and must boop you on the snout for thinking it. If that theory ends up being true though I will boop foxxi on the snout.

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1 - Satsu (Clarinet)

5 - Virothe (Satsu, Lora, Marack, Crackleslap, Graeham)

1 - Xanjori (Raza)

10 - Lora (Blood Fox, Xanjori, Omerto, Virothe, Val, Kryllian, Robo, mercy, listo, Dupti)

1 - nolynch (Firebert)
__________________________________
1 - Xanjori (Val)

1 - Crackle (Robo)

9 - Firebert (Virothe, Satsu, Kryllian, Raza, Graeham, Marack, Xanjori, Dupti, Doublevote)

1 - Virothe (Firebert)

Not voting: ( 5 ) Crackle, Omerto, Listo, Clarinet, blood fox)

Amending my sus list from yesterday, I'm still slightly sus of Graeham even though his power has been confirmed because there is no way to know if that is scum or town. Marack has been in 2 bad areas for votes when it comes to trains. Dupti has also been in 2 bad vote areas but I get the feel he is town from his posting so I'm gonna remove him from the list and add him as a lean-town. I feel like Crackle is probably what he says he is unless Mercy was a VT and he was the cannibal who ate them he shouldn't have known an elf was a VT. Of course I'm still in the sus pile if I looked at myself from the outside but I know I'm town so yeah. -.-

[Virothe]

Oh I forgot to check the thread after dinner my bad, but ya if you’re town and you’re lying like firebert... you deserve the lynch honestly

[dupti]

VTs gained proof they do exist and the two people that claimed VT are now, imo, proven in their claim.

No they are not. If you believe omertos claim then it most likely means that mercy was a VT in which case the cannibal knew this yesterday. This means that Crackle would likely either be the cannibal or a VT. It is however also possible that had a rolecop of some sort, but yes this is a lot of WIFOM.

Val is very likely to be a VT though since he softed his claim before mercy was killed

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Anyway here is where I am at:

I believe Xan and Omerto are very unlikely to ever be with Lora due to their day 1 votes. Omerto's claim also seems rather believable given Blood's flip. Xan I am a bit curious as to whether anything happened to you last night or not though.

I think Kryllian, Robo and Val are also unlikely to be with Lora but you could potentially argue this was really good bussing but I at the moment I am leaning more towards this not being the case. As for Val I also believe his VT claim.

Virothe is (probably) unlikely to be with Lora as well given he was the alternative to Lora plus Lora did vote relatively early on Virothe and parked his vote there I think. Sure could have been distancing but meh.

So I believe that Lora's partners are to be found within:
Clarinet, Crackle, Graeham, listo, Marack, Raza and Satsu

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i have absolutely no idea what firebert was doing but that was.. well...

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Vote Raza

well you obviously knew this was coming

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@Clarinet last game you were very vocal about who your townreads were, but this game you seem a little more withdrawn. So I'd like to hear some more from you as well

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actually i will have to check graehams posts as well when i get time because i dont really remember anything he has said

[Clarinet]

Poor Fox

and Bertie? I think it's safe to assume he was doing his #bertiethings
@dupti, last game I received plenty of suspicion whenever I would be vocal and firm about my townleans. I've also been advised to not do it again because it comes across as having info

So for townleans, I'm not sure tbh, but I'll try, still think I need at least 1 more day to form a towncore

[Kryllian]

I'm going on the assumption that given his role, Firebert knew he was screwed once the pressure was on. A VT claim would have likely gotten him lynched. So he decided to go all out. Either he would get a bunch of people sending him a present so he could amass some or he'd get NK'd and soak a kill for town. But 5 minutes later after the claim I think he knew he screwed up and....here we are. I don't agree with his decision to lie as a townie, but that's the way he chose to play it.

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@Robozerim did you gift a present last night like you stated you were going to and if so to whom?
@Crackleslap did you try to steal from Listo for a 3rd night in a row?

[SatsuBL]

What is your take on a present mechanic? Do you think there is a chance someone might actually get to 5? Or that presents will go back and forth and that mechanic will be irrelevant in the end?

[Val the Moofia Boss]

It's going to confuse trackers and watchers, as they will see activity going on but they will have absolutely no idea if it was a power being used or just people giving or stealing presents.

[Xanjori]

. Xan I am a bit curious as to whether anything happened to you last night or not though.

I received chocolate!

[Kryllian]

It wouldn't surprise me if at least one person has a wincon of accumulating presents. Perhaps the Scum team gets to keep the presents off the people they NK.

[Xanjori]

No they are not. If you believe omertos claim then it most likely means that mercy was a VT in which case the cannibal knew this yesterday. This means that Crackle would likely either be the cannibal or a VT. It is however also possible that had a rolecop of some sort, but yes this is a lot of WIFOM.

Val is very likely to be a VT though since he softed his claim before mercy was killed

Crackle being a cannibal is also a possibility. Is there anything that gives you good reason to believe Mercy was a VT?

[dupti]

I received chocolate!

But does it actually do anything?

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Poor Fox

and Bertie? I think it's safe to assume he was doing his #bertiethings
@dupti, last game I received plenty of suspicion whenever I would be vocal and firm about my townleans. I've also been advised to not do it again because it comes across as having info

So for townleans, I'm not sure tbh, but I'll try, still think I need at least 1 more day to form a towncore

I see. But don't you have any reads?

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Crackle being a cannibal is also a possibility. Is there anything that gives you good reason to believe Mercy was a VT?

Omerto claimed he tracked mercy and that mercy did not visit anyone. I suppose there are other possibilities of course and there is also a chance Omerto is lying but well if Omerto is real then I reckon mercy was likely just a VT

[Xanjori]

But does it actually do anything?

Honestly I dont know, it just says I received a chocolate.

[Graeham]

Omerto claimed he tracked mercy and that mercy did not visit anyone. I suppose there are other possibilities of course and there is also a chance Omerto is lying but well if Omerto is real then I reckon mercy was likely just a VT

There's also a possibility that Mercy was a TPR but couldn't use any powers on that particular night.

[Razamith]

Dupti I dont know why you've hyper focused on me but its either bad logic/reads or you have an agenda. My review of you leads to a few points of interest. 1) Your D1 was self-admittedly much of it a troll; you hyper focused on crackle and fought with mercy when he called you out on it. I gave you a bit of a pass because there is content in there, and its D1 so making a "play for reactions" is more tolerable/believable. 2) Your D2 was similar both in hyper focus on crackle and myself, but also i see interactions/content too. Best being #365 a full vote analysis with reads. I dont agree with all your thoughts but it felt genuine or well crafted. 3) Today I actually like what i've seen so far. Interactions and an analysis i can ... well.. analyze. 4) You know i love my theories. And I got to thinking last night that you hammered both lynches. The first I said i was around as needed and you hammered quickly thereafter. Yesterday you hammered "mistakingly" thinking L-1. I have to consider the possibility do you get a benefit to hammering, either in general or against a certain faction? This could be either a town or scum thing and i'm not too convinced its more than coincidence, but I have it in my notes now. Regardless, i have town points for you and i have some concerns too, but I dont have you in my most concerned with list right now.

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So who are my concerns?
Based on trains and interactions less likely lora teammates are: Virothe probably not due to competing train but cant rule out valuable or another team, i just dont think its worth pursuing currently; Xanjori would have been some impressive bussing and i'm doubting there; Val i give credit to - it was out of nowhere and no reasoning but it was a swing vote - for that to be bussing he would have already been willing to write off lora teammate, and i dont think val would do that at that point. Mercy and BF had key votes/interactions but irrelevant now obviously. Potential deflections were marack, graeham, crackle, robo (could be trying to push virothe then maybe saw writing on the wall and switched back; or could be getting competing train votes as stated), or anyone who didn't vote either (especially if virothe turns out to be teammate/another scum team) which were clarinet, satsu, and myself. Bussing obviously potential for anyone not mentioned in my least likely lora-related.

Another data point i've been watching is any statements/hints at people being involved in Nightmare Before Christmas vs those stating nothing to do with. I have crackle, val, omer, firebert, and BF as either having stated or flipped not related. In nightmare universe I have lora guaranteed, marack and graeham implying they're on robo's list, and some weird references by clarinet. Firebert had the pumpkin reference + frightening jackinthebox claim and had him there until last night. I have some others as saying statements I believe are either hints or things they've said where i believe i can place them, but dont really wanna risk outing anyone until i know more, plus could be counter evidence if claiming otherwise. Aside from my own role and what's flipped I dont know how mixed the two are, but currently i'm more concerned with the latter list.

Compiling my thoughts, I have some reservations about marack, i'm watching robo's content and considering his vote switch timing, and i have weird interactions/comments around clarinet. A secondary bucket i have is graeham, listo, satsu, and dupti for read-based reasons, but less confidence in.