View Poll Results: Do you believe in psychics, extraterrestrial life, time travel, other universes?

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  • Yes, I believe in all of them

    24 9.72%
  • No, I don't believe in any of them

    48 19.43%
  • I believe in some of them, but not all of them

    175 70.85%
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  1. #241
    Scarab Lord Darththeo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Osmeric View Post
    We don't know enough to say this. And, no, the fact that there's a very large number of stars and planets out there does not do the trick.
    Even with conservative estimates using life having to be like us, it is near absolutely certain odds life is out there.
    It is statistically improbable even restricting things by the most we can that there isn't other life out there.

    We understand so little about what actually is life. That is why there is such a debate on "are viruses alive?"

    The more we study space, the more we find planets are the norm and not the exception for stars and we are finding ourselves able to find small rocky planets and can confirm in some cases if they are in the habitable zone of the star. We have proven under the right circumstances organic compounds can form.
    Peace is a lie. There is only passion. Through passion I gain strength. Through strength I gain power.
    Through power I gain victory. Through victory my chains are broken. The Force shall set me free.
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  2. #242
    Quote Originally Posted by Shadowferal View Post
    it's statistically likely that that there's life in some form...
    We do not know enough to say this. I see this argument a lot, and it is mathematically illiterate bullshit.

    Let N be the number of stars in the observable universe around which life might originate, and p the probability that life will originate around any particular star. The argument you are making is that there is some N such that N p is much greater than 1, without knowing what p is.

    And this is obviously wrong. If p = 1 / 100N (for example), then N p = 1/100, and almost certainly there is no other life we could ever see.

    The point here is that we have no useful lower bound on p, the chance life arises around a star. So while N may be very large, p may be extremely close to 0, and we cannot derive any useful bound on N p.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Darththeo View Post
    Even with conservative estimates using life having to be like us, it is near absolutely certain odds life is out there.
    You are wrong, for the reason I just gave.
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  3. #243
    Scarab Lord Darththeo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Osmeric View Post
    We do not know enough to say this. I see this argument a lot, and it is mathematically illiterate bullshit.

    Let N be the number of stars in the observable universe around which life might originate, and p the probability that life will originate around any particular star. The argument you are making is that there is some N such that N p is much greater than 1, without knowing what p is.

    And this is obviously wrong. If p = 1 / 100N (for example), then N p = 1/100, and almost certainly there is no other life we could ever see.

    The point here is that we have no useful lower bound on p, the chance life arises around a star. So while N may be very large, p may be extremely close to 0, and we cannot derive any useful bound on N p.

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    You are wrong, for the reason I just gave.
    I am not because you clearly don't understand the subject.

    The scale we are talking about here. Even if the odds of life being on another planet is 1 in a billion, it would be statistically improbable life doesn't exist. We aren't saying they are next door coming over for sugar, but the numbers we are dealing here you need to have a functionally zero odds for life not to exist elsewhere in the universe.

    You are saying we are wrong because you are arbitrary choosing a functionally zero. Essentially doing the same thing in the opposite direction you are accusing us of doing.
    Last edited by Darththeo; 2021-10-14 at 02:04 AM.
    Peace is a lie. There is only passion. Through passion I gain strength. Through strength I gain power.
    Through power I gain victory. Through victory my chains are broken. The Force shall set me free.
    –The Sith Code

  4. #244
    Quote Originally Posted by Darththeo View Post
    I am not because you clearly don't understand the subject.

    The scale we are talking about here. Even if the odds of life being on another planet is 1 in a billion, it would be statistically improbable life doesn't exist.
    No, I fully understand your argument. It is a bullshit argument that I have already refuted. The chance of life could be vastly smaller than 1 in a billion. We have no good lower bound on that chance. It could be much smaller than 1 / # of stars in the universe.

    The reason the chance of life could be this small is there's an enormous complexity barrier between nonliving matter and the simplest living organism we can current imagine (which would contain billions of atoms). If there is any step in Origin of Life that involves a very rare process of assembling a complex thing with many parts by chance, the probability of that could be exponentially small in the size of the thing. It's possible there's some Royal Road to Life that avoids the barrier, but if so we don't know what it is or how much it would help.
    "There is a pervasive myth that making content hard will induce players to rise to the occasion. We find the opposite. " -- Ghostcrawler
    "Sooner or later everyone sits down to a banquet of consequences." -- Robert Louis Stevenson
    If you didn't get your COVID shot it's probably too late now, you fool.

  5. #245
    Scarab Lord Darththeo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Osmeric View Post
    No, I fully understand your argument. It is a bullshit argument that I have already refuted. The chance of life could be vastly smaller than 1 in a billion. We have no good lower bound on that chance. It could be much smaller than 1 / # of stars in the universe.

    The reason the chance of life could be this small is there's an enormous complexity barrier between nonliving matter and the simplest living organism we can current imagine (which would contain billions of atoms). If there is any step in Origin of Life that involves a very rare process of assembling a complex thing with many parts by chance, the probability of that could be exponentially small in the size of the thing. It's possible there's some Royal Road to Life that avoids the barrier, but if so we don't know what it is or how much it would help.
    You haven't refuted it, you basically did what you claim we are doing except rather that assuming 1 you are assuming 0.
    You went "there is a chance the odds could be so small it wouldn't happen, therefore it is bullshit" that is not a refutation of the claim.

    So no, you don't understand the argument at all. You think you do but you do not.

    No one who believe ETs are statistically certain denies it is possible there are none, it is just highly unlikely that is the case. And just because we cannot encounter them doesn't change that fact. I am sorry, I am going to accept the belief of scientists who study this for a profession over some rando on the internet.
    Last edited by Darththeo; 2021-10-14 at 02:12 AM.
    Peace is a lie. There is only passion. Through passion I gain strength. Through strength I gain power.
    Through power I gain victory. Through victory my chains are broken. The Force shall set me free.
    –The Sith Code

  6. #246
    “if there's a steady paycheck in it, I'll believe anything you say”

  7. #247
    Quote Originally Posted by Darththeo View Post
    You haven't refuted it, you basically did what you claim we are doing except rather that assuming 1 you are assuming 0.
    You went "there is a chance the odds could be so small it wouldn't happen, therefore it is bullshit" that is not a refutation of the claim.

    So no, you don't understand the argument at all. You think you do but you do not.
    .
    I did refute it. I showed that when phrased mathematically, your argument was logically incorrect. You are doing the equivalent of insisting that 1 + 1 = 3.

    It is just highly unlikely that is the case.
    This is a lie. Please stop lying.

    And scientists who say life is likely... how the fuck could they know that? Did someone win a Nobel Prize for figuring out how life originates when I wasn't looking? Absent that understanding, and absent detection of ET life, they and we cannot know the odds life would arise anywhere, or say anything about whether life elsewhere is likely or not.
    "There is a pervasive myth that making content hard will induce players to rise to the occasion. We find the opposite. " -- Ghostcrawler
    "Sooner or later everyone sits down to a banquet of consequences." -- Robert Louis Stevenson
    If you didn't get your COVID shot it's probably too late now, you fool.

  8. #248
    I have Giorgio Tsoukalos posters all over my home.

  9. #249
    Can we go back to saying how silly psychics are

  10. #250
    Psychics, no because I'm not a nutjob.
    ET life, yes because I don't believe we're the only sentient species out there.
    Time travel, not exactly. Who knows, maybe ET life found a way to do it.
    Other universes, is always a possibility, given what we know about matter and our own universe.
    If I don't respond to something you tagged me in, assume one of two things.
    1) Your post was too stupid to acknowledge, or
    2) Your post is cringe and not worth replying to.

    Alternatively, if it happens a lot I probably have you blocked due to one of the above things. Thank you.

  11. #251
    Quote Originally Posted by Osmeric View Post
    We do not know enough to say this. I see this argument a lot, and it is mathematically illiterate bullshit. You are wrong, for the reason I just gave.
    If we don't have enough info to say it's possible, then how can you say it's wrong, thereby saying it's impossible? That would imply you have enough info about the structure of reality itself.... Arthur C. Clarke wouldst have a word with you.

  12. #252
    Weird that a lot of people here are repeating the often said lines of "the universe is too big for there to not be aliens" or "it's "statistically" improbable/impossible for there not to be aliens". But...that's not how math works?

    We don't actually know most of the variables in the drake equation. It is conceivable that life is so improbable that it's only occurred once in the universe, or once in the observable universe. No matter how big the universe is (unless it's literally an actual infinity - in which case all logic and reasoning is meaningless), if something is improbable enough - it won't occur much, maybe once, or maybe never.

    You may think it unreasonable that life is that improbable, but consider what life actually is. Even the most "simple" organisms imaginable are extremely complex self-replicating machines that operate on a molecular level. Think about how crazy that is. Something like that "building itself" through entirely natural & random interactions & fluctuations in chemical muck? Well, maybe that really has only occurred once in the entire observable universe.

    On the other hand, maybe the formation of life is actually really easy and will occur inevitably given the right set of conditions. Maybe there are millions of civilizations in our galaxy alone. Or maybe we're alone. We just don't know. Stop pretending to know.

  13. #253
    Psychics? Not on Earth. Or, at least, that's what I know.

    Alien life? Yes. We've literally discovered it already, albeit in the form of micro-organic bacteria, algae, etc. Intelligent Life could possess actual psychics, btw.

    Time Travel? Definitely possible, with the right tools.

    Other Universes? Don't see why not. We'll never see them in our time though, unless some crazy magic shit happens, or unless other things crazy occur.

  14. #254
    Quote Originally Posted by EntertainmentNihilist View Post
    You may think it unreasonable that life is that improbable, but consider what life actually is. .
    What life actually is...as humans understand it.

  15. #255
    Stood in the Fire Toxuvox's Avatar
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    Physics allows for the possibility of time travel (in a limited sense), and describes parallel universes quite elegantly, so I can easily get on board with those. ETs, I think, are a given. The absurd arrogance in thinking that in the vastness of the universe, life only appeared here on earth is childishly silly. Psychics on the other hand....absolutely not. In my opinion, they are nothing but money hungry charlatans looking for the next sap they can make a buck out of.

  16. #256
    Psychics - Not really, no, but maybe? The universe is pretty massive. Probably not.

    Aliens - I find it very hard to imagine that we're alone in this universe, it's nearly impossible statistically.

    Time travel - You sort of can time travel forward, but I don't believe there will ever be a way to go backwards.

    Other universes - Sure why not, I have no strong reason to believe one way or the other, so I'll pick the exciting option.

  17. #257
    Quote Originally Posted by Shadowferal View Post
    If we don't have enough info to say it's possible, then how can you say it's wrong, thereby saying it's impossible? That would imply you have enough info about the structure of reality itself.... Arthur C. Clarke wouldst have a word with you.

    I'm saying the argument is wrong, not the conclusion is wrong. We cannot know right now if there is life elsewhere or not, nor do we know enough to estimate the probability of life elsewhere. The claim that it's highly likely that there is life elsewhere is not justified by the evidence at this point.
    "There is a pervasive myth that making content hard will induce players to rise to the occasion. We find the opposite. " -- Ghostcrawler
    "Sooner or later everyone sits down to a banquet of consequences." -- Robert Louis Stevenson
    If you didn't get your COVID shot it's probably too late now, you fool.

  18. #258
    Scarab Lord Darththeo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Osmeric View Post
    I did refute it. I showed that when phrased mathematically, your argument was logically incorrect. You are doing the equivalent of insisting that 1 + 1 = 3.



    This is a lie. Please stop lying..
    It is not a lie and no, you didn't refute it.

    You are arguing that the chance life could exist could be near zero, therefore it is bullshit to say it is statistically possible for life to exist.

    You are saying if p = 1 / (100*N) where N is the number of visible stars in the known universe. There are 2 trillion galaxies in the known universe averages 100 MILLION stars. So you are saying if p = 1 / (2 x 10^22), then life likely doesn't exist. You are putting a functionally zero odds to argue that it is bullshit because it is possible the odds are that low, but it is highly unlikely that the odds of life are that low.

    It isn't a lie, you didn't refute crap. You are just saying there is a chance the odds are so low that life doesn't exist out there. However, that low odds only gets you to the observable universe. There is more to the universe than just what we can see.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Osmeric View Post
    I'm saying the argument is wrong, not the conclusion is wrong. We cannot know right now if there is life elsewhere or not, nor do we know enough to estimate the probability of life elsewhere. The claim that it's highly likely that there is life elsewhere is not justified by the evidence at this point.
    You are right, but what we do know suggests it is statistically the case it does. It is accepted by experts in the field that it is statistically unlikely that life does not exist elsewhere. The more we learn about life, the more we realize we have been overly restricted on the requirements for it.
    Last edited by Darththeo; 2021-10-14 at 10:24 AM.
    Peace is a lie. There is only passion. Through passion I gain strength. Through strength I gain power.
    Through power I gain victory. Through victory my chains are broken. The Force shall set me free.
    –The Sith Code

  19. #259
    Quote Originally Posted by starstationprofm View Post
    The existence of extraterrestrial life is pretty much guaranteed

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    How can time travel be possible? You need to be faster than the speed of light, meaning your mass would have to be below 0.
    Just FYI, but "relativistic travel resulting in temporal de-synch" isn't really Time Travel by most accepted definitions of the concept.

  20. #260
    Scarab Lord Darththeo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Surfd View Post
    Just FYI, but "relativistic travel resulting in temporal de-synch" isn't really Time Travel by most accepted definitions of the concept.
    That is because Time Travel include going to the past, therefore it isn't included as going forward without a return isn't considered "time travel."
    Peace is a lie. There is only passion. Through passion I gain strength. Through strength I gain power.
    Through power I gain victory. Through victory my chains are broken. The Force shall set me free.
    –The Sith Code

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