Capitol Insurrection / rebellion thread

[Shadowferal]

I agree. That's why DeSantis seems like a slam dunk.

Split vote from Independent candidate Trump, losing the race.

[uuuhname]

the only thing that will keep Trump away from running under the Republicans is if they think he isn't viable.

I, for one am not convinced we've reached that point where the GOP is going to go in on DeSantis.

[Kaleredar]

The Dems are going to lose the 2024 Presidential election. Our best case scenario is both Biden and Harris not running, and AOC coming on with [youngish white male gov/senator] as her running mate (that kind of insane shift would really get an explosive reaction at the voting booths).

But we won't. Because the above won't happen. Biden will bow out, Harris will try for the nomination. Whoever wins won't stand a chance against DeSantis.

AOC is not a strong candidate. Do not confuse that with "she wouldn't be a good president." But much like Bernie Sanders, it doesn't matter if you'd be a good president... if you can't win.

To wit, the GOP have been speed-running the hate train on AOC that they cultivated over decades with Clinton. Fairly successfully, I might add. Ask who in the democratic party the GOP are afraid are going to turn the country into a socialist hellscape where they put you on death panels and steal your guns and AOC is right up there with Ilhan and Bernie and Hillary Clinton.

Is it fair? No. Is it accurate? No. Is it steeped in prejudices both misogynistic and racial? Yes. But make no mistake that it is not a strength. And sure, it doesn't matter to the GOP-faithful who the democrats run, because they wont vote for them regardless, but that constant onslaught of vilification and borderline-slander very much does bleed out into affecting center-line people and independents. It happened with Hillary. The GOP tried it in 2020 when they attempted to disparage Biden in people's minds by... you guessed it, linking him to AOC. I got canvassing ads here in Florida that warned against voting for Biden because he was secretly the political puppet of AOC and Bernie, specifically.

Ironically, the best thing for the Dems would be Trump winning the nomination for the GQP.

I think the GOP is in a more perilous spot than you might think. Trump running in 2024 would be a massive uphill battle for them, and I think the GOP has been spending the last two years, and will spend the next two, trying to make that not happen. The only thing the GOP have against Biden's administration is gas prices... which have begun to decline... and inflation, which may be tempered by 2024. So a notion of "eh, give Trump another shot why not?!" is a real dud of a rallying cry, and people who are less than jazzed about Biden's performance would still certainly vote for him for no other reason than to keep Trump out.

As far as another GOP candidate goes, they still have to do that... with Trump's blessing. Because while Trump's influence on the GOP is waning, his crazy base are something they basically require for 2024 to stay in power. Trump running as an independent because he's 1) not the candidate and 2) crazy enough to believe he'd win (which I think he is indeed crazy enough to believe) would be an absolute disaster for the GOP. And I don't know how... with it... Trump is to be making some grand-scheming, back door plan, let alone willing to hand off the control he perceives that he has. And if we are ascribing the level of mental acumen required to do so, he seems as likely to me to make said backdoor deal as he is just to run as an independent out of spite, knowing he can fundraise off of it and not caring whether the GOP fails because of it or not.

The "best" scenario for the GOP in the next two years... Trump kicks the bucket. His feckless children and political cronies will flock to whomever the GOP promotes next and try their best to drag along his insane followers with them. Because I don't see a Trump run going particularly well, nor do I see him "graciously" ceding power to another candidate.

[Snuke]

AOC is not a strong candidate. Do not confuse that with "she wouldn't be a good president." But much like Bernie Sanders, it doesn't matter if you'd be a good president... if you can't win.

To wit, the GOP have been speed-running the hate train on AOC that they cultivated over decades with Clinton. Fairly successfully, I might add. Ask who in the democratic party the GOP are afraid are going to turn the country into a socialist hellscape where they put you on death panels and steal your guns and AOC is right up there with Ilhan and Bernie and Hillary Clinton.

Is it fair? No. Is it accurate? No. Is it steeped in prejudices both misogynistic and racial? Yes. But make no mistake that it is not a strength. And sure, it doesn't matter to the GOP-faithful who the democrats run, because they wont vote for them regardless, but that constant onslaught of vilification and borderline-slander very much does bleed out into affecting center-line people and independents. It happened with Hillary. The GOP tried it in 2020 when they attempted to disparage Biden in people's minds by... you guessed it, linking him to AOC. I got canvassing ads here in Florida that warned against voting for Biden because he was secretly the political puppet of AOC and Bernie, specifically.



I think the GOP is in a more perilous spot than you might think. Trump running in 2024 would be a massive uphill battle for them, and I think the GOP has been spending the last two years, and will spend the next two, trying to make that not happen. The only thing the GOP have against Biden's administration is gas prices... which have begun to decline... and inflation, which may be tempered by 2024. So a notion of "eh, give Trump another shot why not?!" is a real dud of a rallying cry, and people who are less than jazzed about Biden's performance would still certainly vote for him for no other reason than to keep Trump out.

As far as another GOP candidate goes, they still have to do that... with Trump's blessing. Because while Trump's influence on the GOP is waning, his crazy base are something they basically require for 2024 to stay in power. Trump running as an independent because he's 1) not the candidate and 2) crazy enough to believe he'd win (which I think he is indeed crazy enough to believe) would be an absolute disaster for the GOP. And I don't know how... with it... Trump is to be making some grand-scheming, back door plan, let alone willing to hand off the control he perceives that he has. And if we are ascribing the level of mental acumen required to do so, he seems as likely to me to make said backdoor deal as he is just to run as an independent out of spite, knowing he can fundraise off of it and not caring whether the GOP fails because of it or not.

The "best" scenario for the GOP in the next two years... Trump kicks the bucket. His feckless children and political cronies will flock to whomever the GOP promotes next and try their best to drag along his insane followers with them. Because I don't see a Trump run going particularly well, nor do I see him "graciously" ceding power to another candidate.

You don’t think he’d cede power for a pardon?

[Poopymonster]

You don’t think he’d cede power for a pardon?

You think he'd A: admit he did something wrong and B: be seen as needing someone to bail his fat ass out?

[Snuke]

You think he'd A: admit he did something wrong and B: be seen as needing someone to bail his fat ass out?

Yes, he has a long history of settling to avoid worse punishments.

[Poopymonster]

Yes, he has a long history of settling to avoid worse punishments.

Settling with NDAs. No one can talk about it.
A pardon? With it's admission of guilt and being unable to keep it hush hush?
To quote the beaver upon seeing running water, "I think not."

[Snuke]

Settling with NDAs. No one can talk about it.
A pardon? With it's admission of guilt and being unable to keep it hush hush?
To quote the beaver upon seeing running water, "I think not."

He’ll just say he was forced to take it because the Dems were being unfair.

[Kaleredar]

You don’t think he’d cede power for a pardon?

He can’t be pardoned for everything he’s under fire for having done, particularly the state-level crimes.

[Winter Blossom]

Everything I've seen so far suggests DeSantis will, in fact, run in 2024. Trump will mysteriously have a health condition about the same time he starts losing the primary. So...you might not need to wait long.

I’m thinking Trump will convince DeSantis to be his VP.

[cubby]

I’m thinking Trump will convince DeSantis to be his VP.

That is certainly another option, and a viable one. It would be a powerful ticket. I'm just not sure how politically savvy DeSantis is - running under Trump usually means you eventually get run over by Trump, and if DeSantis can see this and therefore the future, he might be disinclined to take a VP slot. Or, at the very least, make a full run for the top spot in the Primaries.

[Shadowferal]

I suspect DeSantis has too much ego. I think that he thinks he can take Trump and win.

[Xyonai]

I think the GOP is in a more perilous spot than you might think. Trump running in 2024 would be a massive uphill battle for them, and I think the GOP has been spending the last two years, and will spend the next two, trying to make that not happen. The only thing the GOP have against Biden's administration is gas prices... which have begun to decline... and inflation, which may be tempered by 2024. So a notion of "eh, give Trump another shot why not?!" is a real dud of a rallying cry, and people who are less than jazzed about Biden's performance would still certainly vote for him for no other reason than to keep Trump out.

A lot of this analysis is also based on the GOP running a platform on, like, actual policy and not just trying to continue their - frustratingly successful - tactic of screaming about imaginary bullshit and winning votes. They don't need to run against Biden's track record, when they can just fucking lie about things still being terrible - when they might not be -, scream about Hunter Biden being a national security risk - when he has no political influence - , or scream about whatever culture war social issue will get enough of their base angry and ready to swarm the voting booths.

[Kaleredar]

A lot of this analysis is also based on the GOP running a platform on, like, actual policy and not just trying to continue their - frustratingly successful - tactic of screaming about imaginary bullshit and winning votes. They don't need to run against Biden's track record, when they can just fucking lie about things still being terrible - when they might not be -, scream about Hunter Biden being a national security risk - when he has no political influence - , or scream about whatever culture war social issue will get enough of their base angry and ready to swarm the voting booths.

None of those things won them the day in 2020, though. Shrieking the same nonsense while promoting a known loser in trump is not exactly a recipe for success..

To wit, “things are terrible, trust trump!” probably isn’t a very strong rallying cry to anyone who remembers how terrible the trump presidency was. And like I said, people who aren’t enthused by Biden will very likely still be sure to show up to vote against Trump.

[cubby]

AOC is not a strong candidate. Do not confuse that with "she wouldn't be a good president." But much like Bernie Sanders, it doesn't matter if you'd be a good president... if you can't win.

To wit, the GOP have been speed-running the hate train on AOC that they cultivated over decades with Clinton. Fairly successfully, I might add. Ask who in the democratic party the GOP are afraid are going to turn the country into a socialist hellscape where they put you on death panels and steal your guns and AOC is right up there with Ilhan and Bernie and Hillary Clinton.

Is it fair? No. Is it accurate? No. Is it steeped in prejudices both misogynistic and racial? Yes. But make no mistake that it is not a strength. And sure, it doesn't matter to the GOP-faithful who the democrats run, because they wont vote for them regardless, but that constant onslaught of vilification and borderline-slander very much does bleed out into affecting center-line people and independents. It happened with Hillary. The GOP tried it in 2020 when they attempted to disparage Biden in people's minds by... you guessed it, linking him to AOC. I got canvassing ads here in Florida that warned against voting for Biden because he was secretly the political puppet of AOC and Bernie, specifically.



I think the GOP is in a more perilous spot than you might think. Trump running in 2024 would be a massive uphill battle for them, and I think the GOP has been spending the last two years, and will spend the next two, trying to make that not happen. The only thing the GOP have against Biden's administration is gas prices... which have begun to decline... and inflation, which may be tempered by 2024. So a notion of "eh, give Trump another shot why not?!" is a real dud of a rallying cry, and people who are less than jazzed about Biden's performance would still certainly vote for him for no other reason than to keep Trump out.

As far as another GOP candidate goes, they still have to do that... with Trump's blessing. Because while Trump's influence on the GOP is waning, his crazy base are something they basically require for 2024 to stay in power. Trump running as an independent because he's 1) not the candidate and 2) crazy enough to believe he'd win (which I think he is indeed crazy enough to believe) would be an absolute disaster for the GOP. And I don't know how... with it... Trump is to be making some grand-scheming, back door plan, let alone willing to hand off the control he perceives that he has. And if we are ascribing the level of mental acumen required to do so, he seems as likely to me to make said backdoor deal as he is just to run as an independent out of spite, knowing he can fundraise off of it and not caring whether the GOP fails because of it or not.

The "best" scenario for the GOP in the next two years... Trump kicks the bucket. His feckless children and political cronies will flock to whomever the GOP promotes next and try their best to drag along his insane followers with them. Because I don't see a Trump run going particularly well, nor do I see him "graciously" ceding power to another candidate.

Interesting. The GQP Hate Train certainly has concurrent schedules with prominent DNC candidates. While they are effective, we shouldn't base our entire strategy on them. But I know that's not what you're saying here.

I hear you re Trump and his perils - is he turning into the GQP's Hilary?

I agree the best scenario for the GQP would be Trump kicking the bucket, but that guy seems to be immortal. We'll have to wait and see.

[Edge-]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...service-texts/

The U.S. Secret Service has determined it has no new texts to provide Congress relevant to its Jan. 6 investigation, and that any other texts its agents exchanged around the time of the 2021 attack on the Capitol were purged, according to a senior official briefed on the matter.

Also, the National Archives on Tuesday sought more information on “the potential unauthorized deletion” of agency text messages. The U.S. government’s chief record-keeper asked the Secret Service to report back to the Archives within 30 days about the deletion of any records, including describing what was purged and the circumstances of how the documentation was lost.

The law enforcement agency, whose agents have been embroiled in the Jan. 6 investigation because of their role shadowing and planning President Donald Trump’s movements that day, is expected to share this conclusion with the Jan. 6 committee in response to its Friday subpoena for texts and other records.

Cool, so fire every agent that deleted text messages illegally and charge them all with interfering with an investigation. There needs to be consequences for this shit.

[Paranoid Android]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...service-texts/



Cool, so fire every agent that deleted text messages illegally and charge them all with interfering with an investigation. There needs to be consequences for this shit.

My gooooodness. Please don't let this slide and as stated I don't need my tinfoil hat. There really seemed to be USSS agents who chose loyalty of Trump over their service. A hard reach, but even this should be case of being fired. Now with texts, I sure hope its a slam dunk.

- - - Updated - - -

just broke a May, 22 Justice Dept MEMO from MERRICK GARLAND that basically says there will be no substantial indictments before midterms citing Bill Barr's 2020 DOJ policy.

"Election sensitivities"

This confirms what I (+ others) have been attacked for saying.

I have a bad feeling about this.

[Edge-]

Eyo fuck that bullshit. That cat's been outta the bag since 2016, bruh. Stop with the whole, "We're doing everything by the book, to the letter." shit when that's not what the fuckin times call for.

My position that Garland would have been a fantastic Justice but is a shitty AG remains solid. I continue to be massively unimpressed with the DoJ's handling of these investigations.

[Ripster42]

My gooooodness. Please don't let this slide and as stated I don't need my tinfoil hat. There really seemed to be USSS agents who chose loyalty of Trump over their service. A hard reach, but even this should be case of being fired. Now with texts, I sure hope its a slam dunk.

- - - Updated - - -

just broke a May, 22 Justice Dept MEMO from MERRICK GARLAND that basically says there will be no substantial indictments before midterms citing Bill Barr's 2020 DOJ policy.

"Election sensitivities"

This confirms what I (+ others) have been attacked for saying.

I have a bad feeling about this.

That's not what the memo says. Just says they have to run investigations by garland, nothing more substantial than that. Subpoenas are already going out from the DoJ; that means the investigations are ongoing, and they've already run them by garland. Grats, once again, for reading defeatist bullshit on twitter and believing it.

[Elegiac]

That's not what the memo says. Just says they have to run investigations by garland, nothing more substantial than that. Subpoenas are already going out from the DoJ; that means the investigations are ongoing, and they've already run them by garland. Grats, once again, for reading defeatist bullshit on twitter and believing it.

To add to this, it's not just Barr that he's looking to avoid comparisons with; it's Comey.

We're already in an environment where blaming defeats on election tampering is par for the course among Republicans, Garland is likely trying to avoid giving them any further credibility by launching indictments against sitting members of Congress a few months before an election.

While the response has not been as strong as I personally would like, it is ethically and strategically defensible.