Yup. April would still be a bad time imo. Some guilds still do progression in Naxx and we got the prepatch that should be out long enough aswell, could be quite fun to have shaman and paladin in classic raids and pvp. Even if some guilds cleared Naxx extremely quickly I do not see that as a reason for April launch cause: A. The guilds that steamrolled Naxx should not be seen as the gauge B. A lot of players have the chance to gather gear like T3 now for the first time.
Its gonna be August boys, unless they go for July, which is unlikely but you never know in a world wide pandemic.
Anything earlier is infatuation, I salute the dreamers that were sticking with May since Blizzcon
I don't understand how they haven't got the beta out yet to be honest.... They've got the tools to convert the code from Vanilla -> Classic. They've obviously been working on this for atleast 3-4 months (and that's being harsh if anything, they've probably known this was the route to go since Aug/Sept 2020). What's concerning me about the release date for TBC Classic is the fact they are sending out feedback forms at this stage - naxx has been out for 4 months now, and they're sending out feedback about how they should design and make "some changes" to TBC?
Still undecided on full design, no TBC beta, Naxx currently 4 months old. It's not looking good for a reasonable release time IMO.
I can't speak for any other servers, but i play on one of the most populated TBC servers. So many guilds here are having to run collaboration raids because their own roster have hemoraged so many people who aren't interested in raiding.
I can see a big dip in wow subscribers for Blizzard if TBC classic doesn't drop until August/September, which unless the Beta comes in the next week or 2, i'd say is looking increasingly likely.
Even the pre-patch won't hold that much attention - pre-patch will only keep players interested for those levelling pallies/shammies.
Firstly this isn't like a new expansion or content where they can go in with a free reign. They obviously are still deciding on how and what changes to implement. I think some QOL changes are definitely going to be in the pipeline. Do we even know on what content patch will the classes be balanced around at launch?
Naxx has been out for 4 months which isn't a long time. They did say that they made a mistake rushing out TBC soon after Naxx back in the day so don't expect them to rush out TBC right now. I still think we have another 3-4 months before we see TBC. Considering they only announced TBC Classic like a couple of weeks ago, that would safely give them another 6 months to get the game out. Its highly likely they launch it in August, 2 years since Classic launched. That would make the most sense. 9.1 doesn't seem likely its going to come out before then. If they do plan on releasing 9.1 before then it would have to come out in June giving them around 2 months for the PTR. Though from what they showed us at Blizzcon, they've barely even started working on 9.1 and it wouldn't surprise me again if it launched after TBC Classic. Blizzard just had their 6 month subscription promotion. Usually they do this during a content drought so its safe to assume we ain't getting any new content for another 5-6 months at least.
I think Blizzard knows by now what the WoW Subscriber cycle looks like. They are willing to deal with a loss of subscribers knowing it will bounce back with new content. I doubt they will change anything now. Maybe if FFI4 releases something in between they may be called to action.
I think you underestimate the pre patch. Many will want to reroll new Blood Elf classes. I am holding out levelling a Hunter till they allow you to create Blood Elves. Blood Elves and Draenei can be 6 other classes and many will come back to create new characters cause of it.
Considering they just announced TBC Classic, the PTR isn't going to be out for sometime at least.
I appreciate what you're saying, but by the same logic if they didn't want to rush-release the content, why did they open up BWL so soon after Classic launched? And AQ not too far after that? It's because they read what the classic community wanted/needed at the time.
I know Naxx has only been out for 4 months, but what i'm saying is that beta will probably last between 1-2 months at a minimum. Meaning that if Beta drops this week, TBC would launch some time in June (potentially July). By that point, you're talking about 8 months of Naxxramas. Although for any new content pacing that seems reasonable, it isn't for the classic community. In retail they expect a new raid tier to last 6 months for A) the difficulty of content (it takes a while to get through) and B) the new aesthetics of a raid stop it being stale. This isn't the case with classic - bosses aren't that difficult, and it's all stuff we've seen before. The idea that a wow classic raid tier can keep people happy for 6 months just isn't correct, which has been shown by the fact they released content is wow classic a lot sooner than they originally planned to. This is one of the primary reasons i believe the WoW Classic TBC team are attempting to implement pre-nerf bosses, to slow down the release demand of content. The longer players struggle with bosses, the less they get bored - the challenge and the fun is what keeps players interested, and bottom line, any half decent guilds have been clearing Naxx since mid january. Heck, even GDKP runs are regular clearers on my server these days.
It's entirely possible they are in a stage where they accept subs are just going to be lower in summer - i don't think that's wrong, but by the same token from what i understand theres a lot of players moving away from Shadowlands due to boredom atm too. They seem behind on 9.1, and when u add a reduction in wow players from both Classic and Retail around the same time, that's going to have an exponential effect on company revenues. Definitely no the way a company wants to start its new financial year, let's put it that way.
Last edited by Eldarius; 2021-03-21 at 02:39 AM.
BWL launched in Feb 2020, more than 6 months after the launch of Classic. Well it's safe to assume that TBC Classic isn't going to launch before June at the earliest. So we talking about 8 months of Nax. If they already pushing it, I doubt they would care much to push it a further 2 more months. I think they probably release the pre patch in June giving players the ability to create Blood Elf and Draenei characters to prepare for TBC Classic. 6 weeks later, they release TBC Classic which brings us to August.
If TBC Classic was coming out in before June, they would want to release the pre patch sometime in the next few weeks which looks even more unlikely considering there is no information about a PTR.
As for 9.1, I think it's pretty much accepted that 9.1 is way off than most anticipated at least from what was shown at Blizzcon. We talking about at least another 4-6 months.
They're gonna release it in time to compete with New World which releases on 31st of August.
So expect the TBC release in August before New World.
I'm really looking forward to a mid summer release. August 27th was just too late in 2019.
Indeed, Datamined data can mean nothing. But it's literally the only thing we can go on that isn't PURE speculation. And it's not IntErPeRtaTeD anything. It's the exact date of the clone copying process, where Blizzard will snapshot all characters before they let you pick vanilla or TBC (or pay for clone).
It's the only thing we can go for so far, and until Blizzard them self say otherwise. 18 may prepatch , late june/early july release is the most educated bet we can do. It's either that or random person on internet with an opinion with 0 substance.
But as I always tell people. Wait until Blizzard announce it. Before that, nothing is certain.